Service Plays For 12/30/07
- Thread starter the duke
- Start date
NESS
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET. The Texans have always been a "thorn in the side" of the Jaguars. Jacksonville finished 8-8 last year, losing BOTH games to Houston. The Jags were highly motived earlier this year in their Week 6 meeting, winning 37-17 (I had the Jags as a LEGEND winner!). In this Week 17 matchup, the Jags have nothing to play for. They have their playoff spot secured and enter playing about as well as any team outside of Foxboro (11-4 SU and ATS, with SEVEN straight ATS wins). However, Del Rio has said RB Taylor will be rested and Jones-Drew will be used sparingly. That means either Greg Jones (28-48 on the year) or LaBrandion Toefield (6-12!) will get most of the carries. While I haven't see a direct quote, I can't imagine Del Rio will risk Garrard (18-3 ratio / 102.2 rating) for very long either, especially with Houston's Mario Williams playing so well in the second half of the year. Backup Quinn Gray (just 52.4% / 6-5 ratio / 72.1 rating) is quite a drop-ff at QB! On the other hand, Gary Kubiak has a chance to get the Texans to 8-8, which would be the best record in franchise history. Houston is 3-2 SU (4-1 ATS all-time vs Jacksonville at home) and 5-2 SU at home this year. That includes three straight wins and covers, beating the Saints (23-10), Bucs (28-14) and Broncos (31-13). Rosenfels has been solid at QB and the return of Andre Johnson (40 catches and five TDs in six games), makes all the difference in the world for this offense! In the end, this could be Houston's starters topping the Jags' reserves. Las Vegas Insider on the Hou Texans.
Good Luck...Larry
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET. The Texans have always been a "thorn in the side" of the Jaguars. Jacksonville finished 8-8 last year, losing BOTH games to Houston. The Jags were highly motived earlier this year in their Week 6 meeting, winning 37-17 (I had the Jags as a LEGEND winner!). In this Week 17 matchup, the Jags have nothing to play for. They have their playoff spot secured and enter playing about as well as any team outside of Foxboro (11-4 SU and ATS, with SEVEN straight ATS wins). However, Del Rio has said RB Taylor will be rested and Jones-Drew will be used sparingly. That means either Greg Jones (28-48 on the year) or LaBrandion Toefield (6-12!) will get most of the carries. While I haven't see a direct quote, I can't imagine Del Rio will risk Garrard (18-3 ratio / 102.2 rating) for very long either, especially with Houston's Mario Williams playing so well in the second half of the year. Backup Quinn Gray (just 52.4% / 6-5 ratio / 72.1 rating) is quite a drop-ff at QB! On the other hand, Gary Kubiak has a chance to get the Texans to 8-8, which would be the best record in franchise history. Houston is 3-2 SU (4-1 ATS all-time vs Jacksonville at home) and 5-2 SU at home this year. That includes three straight wins and covers, beating the Saints (23-10), Bucs (28-14) and Broncos (31-13). Rosenfels has been solid at QB and the return of Andre Johnson (40 catches and five TDs in six games), makes all the difference in the world for this offense! In the end, this could be Houston's starters topping the Jags' reserves. Las Vegas Insider on the Hou Texans.
Good Luck...Larry
I'm hearing Billy Coleman has a nice card today, along with his College Bowl GOY which goes tomarrow.
NFL Sunday, December 30th, 2007
Safest Wagers |
Best Bet:
Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles
Usually in Week #17 there are lots of different playoff scenarios.. not this year. You need to know who?s trying and for how long. This depends on Injuries, Playoff Chances & Coaches Intentions. The Eagles are practicing like they still have something to prove, while Buffalo seems to be going through the motions. Most NFL playoff coaches are happy that The Eagles with their improved defense are done this week.
Take The Eagles
Other Games:
Steelers/Ravens.... Take The Steelers
Packers/Lions........ Take The Over
Safest Wagers |
Safest Wagers |
Best Bet:
Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles
Usually in Week #17 there are lots of different playoff scenarios.. not this year. You need to know who?s trying and for how long. This depends on Injuries, Playoff Chances & Coaches Intentions. The Eagles are practicing like they still have something to prove, while Buffalo seems to be going through the motions. Most NFL playoff coaches are happy that The Eagles with their improved defense are done this week.
Take The Eagles
Other Games:
Steelers/Ravens.... Take The Steelers
Packers/Lions........ Take The Over
Safest Wagers |
John Ryan
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns Dec 30 2007 1:00PM
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers
Reason: Ai Simulator 7* graded play on the 49ers ? Cleveland is really feeling the disappointment and heavy emotional weight of losing to the Bengals last week. Now, they must win and then scoreboard watch the 8:15 game featuring Tennessee and the Colts. More weight is added knowing that Tennessee is favored by 6+ points on the road since the Colts will not play all of their starters for very long. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 27-6 ATS (82%) since 1983. Play against home favorites of 10.5 or more points after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is a good team with a winning percentage of 60% to 75% playing a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40%. SF has won 2 straight and looking to add even more momentum for next year. The biggest factor is that Tennessee is favored and Cleveland lacks true playoff motivation knowing that their playoff fate rests in the hands of the Sunday Night game.
Game: San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns Dec 30 2007 1:00PM
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers
Reason: Ai Simulator 7* graded play on the 49ers ? Cleveland is really feeling the disappointment and heavy emotional weight of losing to the Bengals last week. Now, they must win and then scoreboard watch the 8:15 game featuring Tennessee and the Colts. More weight is added knowing that Tennessee is favored by 6+ points on the road since the Colts will not play all of their starters for very long. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 27-6 ATS (82%) since 1983. Play against home favorites of 10.5 or more points after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is a good team with a winning percentage of 60% to 75% playing a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40%. SF has won 2 straight and looking to add even more momentum for next year. The biggest factor is that Tennessee is favored and Cleveland lacks true playoff motivation knowing that their playoff fate rests in the hands of the Sunday Night game.
DR CHAD
EASIEST WEEK OF NFL FOOTBALL!!!!!
5 units on CINCY, CLEVELAND, and CAROLINA
3 units on CHICAGO and TENNESSEE.
GOOD LUCK!
EASIEST WEEK OF NFL FOOTBALL!!!!!
5 units on CINCY, CLEVELAND, and CAROLINA
3 units on CHICAGO and TENNESSEE.
GOOD LUCK!
**** MY PLAYS ****
(6-2 YESTERDAY)
(15-7 SINCE MONDAY)
CBB--------------------
(6*)- MINNESOTA
(4*)- SYRACUSE
NBA-------------------
(7*)- LAKERS
NFL--------------------
(8*)- REDSKINS
(8*)- SAINTS
1-10*
(6-2 YESTERDAY)
(15-7 SINCE MONDAY)
CBB--------------------
(6*)- MINNESOTA
(4*)- SYRACUSE
NBA-------------------
(7*)- LAKERS
NFL--------------------
(8*)- REDSKINS
(8*)- SAINTS
1-10*
Here are The Killer Move's picks for Sunday:
10* Boston (NBA) - #511
10* Memphis/San Antonio OVER (NBA) - #507
10* Portland (NBA) - #504
10* Chicago/New York UNDER (NBA) - #501
10* UNLV (CBB) - #526
10* South Carolina St/Mercer UNDER (CBB) - #533
10* Boston (NBA) - #511
10* Memphis/San Antonio OVER (NBA) - #507
10* Portland (NBA) - #504
10* Chicago/New York UNDER (NBA) - #501
10* UNLV (CBB) - #526
10* South Carolina St/Mercer UNDER (CBB) - #533
Benton
30 Dime: COLTS (plus the points vs. Titans)
15 Dime: CHARGERS (minus the points in the first half ONLY vs. Raiders) - Note: You're playing San Diego in the first half
10 Dime: STEELERS (minus the points vs. Ravens)
5 Dime: COWBOYS (plus the points vs. Redskins)
10 Dime: ALABAMA (minus the points vs. Colorado) - Independence Bowl
Colts
Who are Vince Young and the Tennessee Titans to be laying this kind of chalk on the road against the Colts?
Yeah, I know, a slew of the Colts? starters, including Peyton Manning, will probably play little in this game, if at all. I also know that Tennessee needs to win this game to wrap up a playoff berth. But that doesn?t mean the Titans, who barely got by the crappy Jets at home last week, should be significant favorites. Remember: All they have to do is win to get in; they don?t need to blow Indy out. And to be frank, I don?t even think Tennessee is going to win anyway!
Look, we all know Manning is this main part that makes Indy?s machine go, but you don?t win at least 12 games for four straight seasons as the Colts have without a very talented and very deep supporting cast. The point: The Colts? backups aren?t pushovers. Remember, the No. 2s go up against Manning and the No. 1s every single day in practice. You don?t think they?re going to be prepared to play today? Moreover, you don?t think they?re going to be supremely motivated to play well given this rare opportunity to shine on a big stage, at home no less?
And as for Manning?s backup, Jim Sorgi, hey, he?s not going to be mistaken for a Pro Bowler. But don?t forget: This guy has been with the Colts since 2004 and he?s had THE best tutor in the NFL bar-none. And when he?s gotten an opportunity to play (he?s appeared in parts of 12 regular-season games), he?s done well, completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 683 yards with five TDs and one INT, good for 96.2 QB rating. Not bad. Certainly better than Vince Young!
Back to the Titans. There?s a reason Tennessee is in a must-win situation today ? because it hasn?t played well down the stretch, going 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in its last seven games. And in their last three road games, the Titans barely got by the pathetic Chiefs and got crushed at Cincinnati (35-6) and at Denver (34-20), two sub-.500 teams!
Tennessee has been a horrible favorite in recent years, going 6-13 ATS in the last 19, including 3-5 ATS this year. The Colts, meanwhile, are 4-0 ATS the last four times they were a home underdog. In fact, this is just the second time Indy has been a home dog since Manning?s second season in 1999! The other time: It covered against New England earlier this year.
Bottom line: All the pressure is on Vince Young (9 TDs, 17 INTs) and the Titans in this game, and I don?t think they?re going to handle it well. At the same time, the Colts will play free and easy and would love nothing more than to send their division rivals home. And I think they will.
Play the disrespected home dog here.
Chargers (FIRST-HALF BET ONLY)
Remember: You?re betting the Chargers on the first-half line, not the game line, so you should be laying somewhere in the neighborhood of six points in the first half (i.e. first 30 minutes of the game).
Same deal applies to the Chargers as the Steelers in terms of motivation ? San Diego needs to win this game to grab the No. 3 seed and avoid the Jaguars in Round 1 and the Patriots in Round 2. The good news for the Chargers: They?re facing a Raiders? team that is finally going to throw No. 1 pick JaMarcus Russell to the wolves. Well, considering what Russell did last week against a physical defense that?s in the same mold as San Diego?s, the Chargers figure to be up 21 points in the blink of an eye!
Russell came off the bench in last week?s horrific 49-11 loss at Jacksonville and was positively dreadful, completing 7 of 23 passes for 83 yards with three interceptions and a lost fumble. He did throw his first TD pass of the season ? a 7-yarder with six second remaining and Oakland down 49-3!
Today, Russell goes up against a Chargers? defense that has held its last five opponents to 14, 10, 17, 14 and 3 points, all victories. It?s a defense that harassed the hell out of Jay Cutler on Monday night, a week after picking off the Lions? Jon Kitna five times. Um, Cutler and Kitna are just a little bit more polished than JaMarcus!
San Diego?s offense, meanwhile, has averaged 30.6 points during its five-game winning streak, with the bulk of the damage the last two weeks coming in the first half (16-0 lead vs. Denver, 34-7 lead over Detroit).
The Raiders, meanwhile, have lost nine of 11, including the last three in a row, averaging a whopping 10.7 points per game in those last three. Their first-half point totals in those three games: 7, 7 and 3.
Guys, the Chargers, who have beaten the Raiders eight straight times, are going to want to get up big early so they can rest their starters, including L.T., for the third straight week. And I?ll be stunned if they?re not leading this contest by at least 17 points at intermission. So while I do believe San Diego will cover the regular pointspread in this game, the more prudent bet is to take the Chargers in the first half when we know L.T., Rivers, Gates, Chambers, the offensive line, Merriman, etc., will be in the game and playing 100 percent.
Steelers
Another ridiculous pointspread. No team in the NFL ? not the Falcons, not the Dolphins, NOBODY ? has quit on a season like the Baltimore Ravens have. And just because they?re facing their division rivals at home this week doesn?t mean they?re all of a sudden going to spring to life. No way. Baltimore not only has lost nine straight games, it is just 1-8 against the number in those nine games, with the lone cover coming in that hurricane-like game against the Patriots. Take away that 27-24 final, and here is what Baltimore has done of late: 27-6 loss at Seattle last week, 22-16 overtime loss at Miami (the Dolphins? only win of the season), 44-20 home loss to the Colts, 32-14 loss at San Diego, 33-30 overtime home loss to the Browns, 21-7 home loss to the Bengals, 38-7 loss at Pittsburgh.
Talk about totally non-competitive! And if that?s not bad enough, the Ravens? only decent and consistent offensive weapon (RB Willis McGahee) won?t play in this game. Neither will LB Ray Lewis or QB Kyle Boller. So you tell me: How is this team going to stay within a field goal of the 10-5 Steelers who still have hope ? faint hope, but hope nonetheless ? of overtaking the Chargers for the coveted No. 3 seed in the AFC? I just don?t see it happening.
Yes, the Steelers almost certainly will be without several key players in RB Willie Parker (out with season-ending leg injury), QB Ben Roethlisberger (highly doubtful with an ankle injury) and safety Troy Polamalu (doubtful with a knee injury). But for one thing, the Steelers have a very capable backup QB in veteran Charlie Batch. And as we saw in last week?s 41-24 rout of the Rams, Pittsburgh has capable replacements for Parker in RBs Najeh Davenport (24 carries, 123 yards) and Carey Davis (6 carries, 28 yards).
Pittsburgh, which is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in division play this season, will be motivated to win this game, which is being played at the same time as the Chargers? game in Oakland (the Steelers need a win and a San Diego loss to get the No. 3 seed). So we?ll see the Steelers? healthy starters for the majority of the contest ? certainly long enough to build a big enough lead against a dead Ravens squad that is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games, 1-11 ATS in its last 12 vs. the AFC and 0-5 ATS within their division.
Lay the chalk with Pittsburgh.
Cowboys
I feel the exact same way about this game as I do about the Colts-Titans game: The Washington Redskins need to win to clinch a playoff berth, but they DO NOT need to win by double digits, which is what they have to do to cover this ludicrous spread.
Again, like the Colts, Dallas is going to rest a slew of starters. T.O. won?t play, Romo will likely see very limited action, and guys like Whitten, Barber, Jones, etc., ,also figure to get some rest. But the Cowboys, while not as deep as Indianapolis, have capable backups, most notably veteran QB Brad Johnson. In fact, I expect Johnson to wing it a lot (weather permitting) to shake the rust off his arm in the off chance that he?s needed in the playoffs if Romo goes down.
And besides, while I love what journeyman QB Todd Collins has done for Washington since taking over for the injured Jason Campbell ? don?t forget: I rode the Redskins to upset wins the last two weeks in Sunday Night Football! ? ask yourself this question: Is Todd Collins THAT much better than Brad Johnson? NINE POINTS BETTER? I don?t see it, not even with Collins facing a No. 2 defense for part of the game and Johnson facing a first-string D.
I?m telling you, the Cowboys will compete in this game. And because they have looked very shaky the last three weeks against the Lions (28-27 win as a 10?-point favorite), the Panthers (20-13 win as a 10?-point chalk) and Eagles (10-6 loss as a 10-point chalk), I wouldn?t be at all surprised if coach Wade Phillips kept his first-stringers in the game longer than most expect, just to get them some confidence, especially with two weeks to rest before their first playoff game. And don?t forget, this is a rivalry game, and like Indy vs. Tennessee, Dallas would love nothing more than to send the Redskins packing.
Do I see that happening? No, I think Washington wins and gets in. But it?s going to be closer than most expect. Throw in these trends ? the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the Redskins? last eight games, 3-0 ATS in Dallas? last three and an impressive 17-4 ATS in the last 21 Cowboys-Redskins battles ? and I?m grabbing the generous points.
Alabama
How can I back a team that ended the season with four consecutive losses SU and ATS, including a disastrous 21-14 home loss to Louisiana-Monroe as a 24-point favorite? A team that has covered a pointspread just once in its last 10 games, going 0-6 ATS as a favorite?
Let me tell you, it?s not easy, because Alabama?s first season under Nick Saban was an abomination for the most part. But the thing is, I?m not sold on Colorado at all, and the Crimson Tide have faced much stiffer competition in the SEC than what the Buffs will bring today. Among Alabama?s opponents: Arkansas, Georgia and Florida State (in back-to-back-to-back weeks); Tennessee and LSU (in back-to-back weeks) and a season-ender at Auburn.
Colorado, meanwhile, faced five ?quality? foes ? Arizona State, Florida State, Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. Other than Arizona State, the other four games were at home. And the Buffs went 1-4 SU and ATS, the lone win being the shocker over Oklahoma, which took its foot off the gas after going up 17-7 at the half. In the four defeats, Colorado lost by scores of 33-14 (at Arizona State), 16-6 (Florida State), 19-14 (Kansas) and 55-10 (Missouri). Then there was CU?s horrendous defensive effort in the season finale against Nebraska (65-51 win).
In fact, the Buffs gave up 24, 23, 47, 19, 26, 55, 31 and 51 points in its final eight games! Conversely, Alabama yielded 24 or less in six of its final seven, holding the final three foes to an average of 18.3 ppg.
Bottom line: If I thought for a second that Alabama was disinterested in this bowl game, I wouldn?t touch them with a 10-foot pole. But I?m certain the Tide will be highly motivated, as they want to finish Saban?s first year with a winning record and build momentum going into next season. So lay the chalk, as I actually think this is cheap price with a much more talented team.
30 Dime: COLTS (plus the points vs. Titans)
15 Dime: CHARGERS (minus the points in the first half ONLY vs. Raiders) - Note: You're playing San Diego in the first half
10 Dime: STEELERS (minus the points vs. Ravens)
5 Dime: COWBOYS (plus the points vs. Redskins)
10 Dime: ALABAMA (minus the points vs. Colorado) - Independence Bowl
Colts
Who are Vince Young and the Tennessee Titans to be laying this kind of chalk on the road against the Colts?
Yeah, I know, a slew of the Colts? starters, including Peyton Manning, will probably play little in this game, if at all. I also know that Tennessee needs to win this game to wrap up a playoff berth. But that doesn?t mean the Titans, who barely got by the crappy Jets at home last week, should be significant favorites. Remember: All they have to do is win to get in; they don?t need to blow Indy out. And to be frank, I don?t even think Tennessee is going to win anyway!
Look, we all know Manning is this main part that makes Indy?s machine go, but you don?t win at least 12 games for four straight seasons as the Colts have without a very talented and very deep supporting cast. The point: The Colts? backups aren?t pushovers. Remember, the No. 2s go up against Manning and the No. 1s every single day in practice. You don?t think they?re going to be prepared to play today? Moreover, you don?t think they?re going to be supremely motivated to play well given this rare opportunity to shine on a big stage, at home no less?
And as for Manning?s backup, Jim Sorgi, hey, he?s not going to be mistaken for a Pro Bowler. But don?t forget: This guy has been with the Colts since 2004 and he?s had THE best tutor in the NFL bar-none. And when he?s gotten an opportunity to play (he?s appeared in parts of 12 regular-season games), he?s done well, completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 683 yards with five TDs and one INT, good for 96.2 QB rating. Not bad. Certainly better than Vince Young!
Back to the Titans. There?s a reason Tennessee is in a must-win situation today ? because it hasn?t played well down the stretch, going 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in its last seven games. And in their last three road games, the Titans barely got by the pathetic Chiefs and got crushed at Cincinnati (35-6) and at Denver (34-20), two sub-.500 teams!
Tennessee has been a horrible favorite in recent years, going 6-13 ATS in the last 19, including 3-5 ATS this year. The Colts, meanwhile, are 4-0 ATS the last four times they were a home underdog. In fact, this is just the second time Indy has been a home dog since Manning?s second season in 1999! The other time: It covered against New England earlier this year.
Bottom line: All the pressure is on Vince Young (9 TDs, 17 INTs) and the Titans in this game, and I don?t think they?re going to handle it well. At the same time, the Colts will play free and easy and would love nothing more than to send their division rivals home. And I think they will.
Play the disrespected home dog here.
Chargers (FIRST-HALF BET ONLY)
Remember: You?re betting the Chargers on the first-half line, not the game line, so you should be laying somewhere in the neighborhood of six points in the first half (i.e. first 30 minutes of the game).
Same deal applies to the Chargers as the Steelers in terms of motivation ? San Diego needs to win this game to grab the No. 3 seed and avoid the Jaguars in Round 1 and the Patriots in Round 2. The good news for the Chargers: They?re facing a Raiders? team that is finally going to throw No. 1 pick JaMarcus Russell to the wolves. Well, considering what Russell did last week against a physical defense that?s in the same mold as San Diego?s, the Chargers figure to be up 21 points in the blink of an eye!
Russell came off the bench in last week?s horrific 49-11 loss at Jacksonville and was positively dreadful, completing 7 of 23 passes for 83 yards with three interceptions and a lost fumble. He did throw his first TD pass of the season ? a 7-yarder with six second remaining and Oakland down 49-3!
Today, Russell goes up against a Chargers? defense that has held its last five opponents to 14, 10, 17, 14 and 3 points, all victories. It?s a defense that harassed the hell out of Jay Cutler on Monday night, a week after picking off the Lions? Jon Kitna five times. Um, Cutler and Kitna are just a little bit more polished than JaMarcus!
San Diego?s offense, meanwhile, has averaged 30.6 points during its five-game winning streak, with the bulk of the damage the last two weeks coming in the first half (16-0 lead vs. Denver, 34-7 lead over Detroit).
The Raiders, meanwhile, have lost nine of 11, including the last three in a row, averaging a whopping 10.7 points per game in those last three. Their first-half point totals in those three games: 7, 7 and 3.
Guys, the Chargers, who have beaten the Raiders eight straight times, are going to want to get up big early so they can rest their starters, including L.T., for the third straight week. And I?ll be stunned if they?re not leading this contest by at least 17 points at intermission. So while I do believe San Diego will cover the regular pointspread in this game, the more prudent bet is to take the Chargers in the first half when we know L.T., Rivers, Gates, Chambers, the offensive line, Merriman, etc., will be in the game and playing 100 percent.
Steelers
Another ridiculous pointspread. No team in the NFL ? not the Falcons, not the Dolphins, NOBODY ? has quit on a season like the Baltimore Ravens have. And just because they?re facing their division rivals at home this week doesn?t mean they?re all of a sudden going to spring to life. No way. Baltimore not only has lost nine straight games, it is just 1-8 against the number in those nine games, with the lone cover coming in that hurricane-like game against the Patriots. Take away that 27-24 final, and here is what Baltimore has done of late: 27-6 loss at Seattle last week, 22-16 overtime loss at Miami (the Dolphins? only win of the season), 44-20 home loss to the Colts, 32-14 loss at San Diego, 33-30 overtime home loss to the Browns, 21-7 home loss to the Bengals, 38-7 loss at Pittsburgh.
Talk about totally non-competitive! And if that?s not bad enough, the Ravens? only decent and consistent offensive weapon (RB Willis McGahee) won?t play in this game. Neither will LB Ray Lewis or QB Kyle Boller. So you tell me: How is this team going to stay within a field goal of the 10-5 Steelers who still have hope ? faint hope, but hope nonetheless ? of overtaking the Chargers for the coveted No. 3 seed in the AFC? I just don?t see it happening.
Yes, the Steelers almost certainly will be without several key players in RB Willie Parker (out with season-ending leg injury), QB Ben Roethlisberger (highly doubtful with an ankle injury) and safety Troy Polamalu (doubtful with a knee injury). But for one thing, the Steelers have a very capable backup QB in veteran Charlie Batch. And as we saw in last week?s 41-24 rout of the Rams, Pittsburgh has capable replacements for Parker in RBs Najeh Davenport (24 carries, 123 yards) and Carey Davis (6 carries, 28 yards).
Pittsburgh, which is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in division play this season, will be motivated to win this game, which is being played at the same time as the Chargers? game in Oakland (the Steelers need a win and a San Diego loss to get the No. 3 seed). So we?ll see the Steelers? healthy starters for the majority of the contest ? certainly long enough to build a big enough lead against a dead Ravens squad that is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games, 1-11 ATS in its last 12 vs. the AFC and 0-5 ATS within their division.
Lay the chalk with Pittsburgh.
Cowboys
I feel the exact same way about this game as I do about the Colts-Titans game: The Washington Redskins need to win to clinch a playoff berth, but they DO NOT need to win by double digits, which is what they have to do to cover this ludicrous spread.
Again, like the Colts, Dallas is going to rest a slew of starters. T.O. won?t play, Romo will likely see very limited action, and guys like Whitten, Barber, Jones, etc., ,also figure to get some rest. But the Cowboys, while not as deep as Indianapolis, have capable backups, most notably veteran QB Brad Johnson. In fact, I expect Johnson to wing it a lot (weather permitting) to shake the rust off his arm in the off chance that he?s needed in the playoffs if Romo goes down.
And besides, while I love what journeyman QB Todd Collins has done for Washington since taking over for the injured Jason Campbell ? don?t forget: I rode the Redskins to upset wins the last two weeks in Sunday Night Football! ? ask yourself this question: Is Todd Collins THAT much better than Brad Johnson? NINE POINTS BETTER? I don?t see it, not even with Collins facing a No. 2 defense for part of the game and Johnson facing a first-string D.
I?m telling you, the Cowboys will compete in this game. And because they have looked very shaky the last three weeks against the Lions (28-27 win as a 10?-point favorite), the Panthers (20-13 win as a 10?-point chalk) and Eagles (10-6 loss as a 10-point chalk), I wouldn?t be at all surprised if coach Wade Phillips kept his first-stringers in the game longer than most expect, just to get them some confidence, especially with two weeks to rest before their first playoff game. And don?t forget, this is a rivalry game, and like Indy vs. Tennessee, Dallas would love nothing more than to send the Redskins packing.
Do I see that happening? No, I think Washington wins and gets in. But it?s going to be closer than most expect. Throw in these trends ? the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the Redskins? last eight games, 3-0 ATS in Dallas? last three and an impressive 17-4 ATS in the last 21 Cowboys-Redskins battles ? and I?m grabbing the generous points.
Alabama
How can I back a team that ended the season with four consecutive losses SU and ATS, including a disastrous 21-14 home loss to Louisiana-Monroe as a 24-point favorite? A team that has covered a pointspread just once in its last 10 games, going 0-6 ATS as a favorite?
Let me tell you, it?s not easy, because Alabama?s first season under Nick Saban was an abomination for the most part. But the thing is, I?m not sold on Colorado at all, and the Crimson Tide have faced much stiffer competition in the SEC than what the Buffs will bring today. Among Alabama?s opponents: Arkansas, Georgia and Florida State (in back-to-back-to-back weeks); Tennessee and LSU (in back-to-back weeks) and a season-ender at Auburn.
Colorado, meanwhile, faced five ?quality? foes ? Arizona State, Florida State, Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. Other than Arizona State, the other four games were at home. And the Buffs went 1-4 SU and ATS, the lone win being the shocker over Oklahoma, which took its foot off the gas after going up 17-7 at the half. In the four defeats, Colorado lost by scores of 33-14 (at Arizona State), 16-6 (Florida State), 19-14 (Kansas) and 55-10 (Missouri). Then there was CU?s horrendous defensive effort in the season finale against Nebraska (65-51 win).
In fact, the Buffs gave up 24, 23, 47, 19, 26, 55, 31 and 51 points in its final eight games! Conversely, Alabama yielded 24 or less in six of its final seven, holding the final three foes to an average of 18.3 ppg.
Bottom line: If I thought for a second that Alabama was disinterested in this bowl game, I wouldn?t touch them with a 10-foot pole. But I?m certain the Tide will be highly motivated, as they want to finish Saban?s first year with a winning record and build momentum going into next season. So lay the chalk, as I actually think this is cheap price with a much more talented team.
- Nov 28, 2007
- 8,587
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