Indian Cowboy
Hawks -3.5 (POD)
Winning 22 of 35 days (63%) and winning 26 of 42 POD winners (62%).
I'm going to get straight to the point today as there are quite a few plays on tap. I have complete faith in my handicapping as I continue to tweak and adjust my spreadsheets and my rankings to stabilize for the new trends. I feel that it is a good opportunity today to go ahead and take advantage of some lines today early on in the month. Typically I would have 3 plays, but I have 5 today. To let you know in advance, the 3 plays that I would have rode today are the Hawks, twolves and Pistons, but I tacked on the Phoenix/Seattle Under and Clips/Raps Over which are my 4th and 5th preference in selections today. What I'm going to do also is go back to researching 10 games a day on the blog and that will give me a good spring board to choose picks off of. This is why you saw every NBA game analyzed today - which came out to about 11 total ballgames. Research and analysis has always been my base and I need to continue to make sure that is the cornerstone of my handicapping as that is what has allowed for the success thus far this basketball season. I like the Hawks here for a couple of reasons including the fact they are ever so close to the .500 mark. The Cavs looked terrible at Houston yesterday and they are coming off a back to back and there is no love lost between these 2 eastern conference teams. I understand that the Hawks could be in for a let down after the big win against the Lakers, but then again, they beat the Nets, Sixers and Lakers all at home realizing that they need a big home stand after a tough road trip where they did not do well. I think the public will likely get sucked into another Cleveland road loss here. The Cavs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games with 0 days rest and the Hawks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home.
Timberwolves +6
Do you remember earlier in the year that I took the Twolves as 12.5 dogs at Boston and they covered with ease? Well, this is their perfect opportunity to win outright today at home. The Twolves won outright against the Suns at home, beat the Bulls and Nets, beat the Warriors on the road outright and nearly beat the Celtics on the road outright and now they get to face them at home today without Kevin Garnett who dropped 10 points and 16 boards in their 1 point 87-86 win over the Twolves in Boston. Remember, the Twolves are made up of plenty of ex-Celtic players who felt betrayed in the Garnett trade and would love to show up their ex-team here and actually get the outright win. I would even take the Twolves here in a pick-em but will gladly take the 6 points as this is a team that I've been riding for a while and there is no better spot than today with this revenge here. The Twolves are coming off a tough loss to Houston which is an added bonus as they are 4-0 ATS after a straight up loss and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 contests between these 2 teams.
Pistons -11
IC what are you doing?! This is the Portland Trailblazers here catching double-digit points at Detroit, this is easy money, take Portland right? Wrong. Portland is without Roy and Jones today and even if they had both starters, I am still likely to take the Pistons here. For two reasons in particular, one, most of the public is riding the dog at over 60% and that itself has always been a factor in me taking teams that are public dogs and also Detroit lost back in November to the Blazers in the Rose Garden and remember that game. Plus, this team played subpar against the Heat at home and failed to cover the 16 point spread as they barely won so I look for Flip to get his boys playing much better here against a better opponent. Look for the Billups vs. Steve Blake matchup to be exploited. Remember, when the Pistons want to lay the law down they do it as they beat Dallas 90-67 and I think they end up winning this game by 15. The Blazers have failed to cover their last 7 games and the Pistons are 13-3 ATS following a day of rest.
Phoenix/Seattle Under 217
Everyone assumes that when these 2 teams meet it will go over. It will obviously be high scoring, but that does not mean it will necessarily go 'over' as that is indicative of the line that is set only. For example, did you know the last 7 times these 2 teams have met the game has gone under the posted total. Time and time again, I have watched this under hit and time and time again the public continues to love the over here. Both times these 2 teams have met this year it has gone in favor of Seattle covering the double-digit number and the game going under. Keep in mind that Phoenix played a double-overtime game and that could have some remnance on this game but this is a trend that I think is worth taking advantage of here. The Sonics typically play the under when they play a straight up winning team as they are 5-0 to the under when they play a team with a winning record, the under is 9-2 when the Sonics play a team with a winning home record - meaning the under typically hits when the Sonics play the better teams in the league and the under is 5-1 in Phoenix when these 2 teams match up there of late.
Clippers/Raptors Over 196
Look for this game to top 200 for several reasons. Keep in mind this and the other total that I have set for today's card are my 4th and 5th plays of preference but I like this for a few reasons. First, the home team continues to dictate the pace in this series. When the game is at L.A. the game is likely to go under, when the game is in Toronto, the game is likely to go over. Take a look at these numbers - keep in mind these 2 teams have kept relatively the same players the last 2 years:
12/8/97: Clippers 77 - Toronto 80 (in LAC)
2/04/07: Toronto 122 and Clippers 110 (in Tor)
12/20/06: Clippers 96 and Toronto 98 (in LAC)
2/5/06: Toronto 113 and Clippers 115 (overtime) (in Tor)
Long story short, when the game is in Toronto, the game typically takes a faster pace. Check out Toronto's scores of late: 114 at Miami, 101, 122, 104, 106 and 114. Plus, I like the fact the Clippers dropped over a 100 against Boston the other night and the fact they have revenge and are likely to be an active dog which favors my active dog/over theory that I have written extensively about. The over is 5-2 when the Clips are underdogs of this range and the over is 4-0 when the Raps are favored of late.
Hawks -3.5 (POD)
Winning 22 of 35 days (63%) and winning 26 of 42 POD winners (62%).
I'm going to get straight to the point today as there are quite a few plays on tap. I have complete faith in my handicapping as I continue to tweak and adjust my spreadsheets and my rankings to stabilize for the new trends. I feel that it is a good opportunity today to go ahead and take advantage of some lines today early on in the month. Typically I would have 3 plays, but I have 5 today. To let you know in advance, the 3 plays that I would have rode today are the Hawks, twolves and Pistons, but I tacked on the Phoenix/Seattle Under and Clips/Raps Over which are my 4th and 5th preference in selections today. What I'm going to do also is go back to researching 10 games a day on the blog and that will give me a good spring board to choose picks off of. This is why you saw every NBA game analyzed today - which came out to about 11 total ballgames. Research and analysis has always been my base and I need to continue to make sure that is the cornerstone of my handicapping as that is what has allowed for the success thus far this basketball season. I like the Hawks here for a couple of reasons including the fact they are ever so close to the .500 mark. The Cavs looked terrible at Houston yesterday and they are coming off a back to back and there is no love lost between these 2 eastern conference teams. I understand that the Hawks could be in for a let down after the big win against the Lakers, but then again, they beat the Nets, Sixers and Lakers all at home realizing that they need a big home stand after a tough road trip where they did not do well. I think the public will likely get sucked into another Cleveland road loss here. The Cavs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games with 0 days rest and the Hawks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home.
Timberwolves +6
Do you remember earlier in the year that I took the Twolves as 12.5 dogs at Boston and they covered with ease? Well, this is their perfect opportunity to win outright today at home. The Twolves won outright against the Suns at home, beat the Bulls and Nets, beat the Warriors on the road outright and nearly beat the Celtics on the road outright and now they get to face them at home today without Kevin Garnett who dropped 10 points and 16 boards in their 1 point 87-86 win over the Twolves in Boston. Remember, the Twolves are made up of plenty of ex-Celtic players who felt betrayed in the Garnett trade and would love to show up their ex-team here and actually get the outright win. I would even take the Twolves here in a pick-em but will gladly take the 6 points as this is a team that I've been riding for a while and there is no better spot than today with this revenge here. The Twolves are coming off a tough loss to Houston which is an added bonus as they are 4-0 ATS after a straight up loss and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 contests between these 2 teams.
Pistons -11
IC what are you doing?! This is the Portland Trailblazers here catching double-digit points at Detroit, this is easy money, take Portland right? Wrong. Portland is without Roy and Jones today and even if they had both starters, I am still likely to take the Pistons here. For two reasons in particular, one, most of the public is riding the dog at over 60% and that itself has always been a factor in me taking teams that are public dogs and also Detroit lost back in November to the Blazers in the Rose Garden and remember that game. Plus, this team played subpar against the Heat at home and failed to cover the 16 point spread as they barely won so I look for Flip to get his boys playing much better here against a better opponent. Look for the Billups vs. Steve Blake matchup to be exploited. Remember, when the Pistons want to lay the law down they do it as they beat Dallas 90-67 and I think they end up winning this game by 15. The Blazers have failed to cover their last 7 games and the Pistons are 13-3 ATS following a day of rest.
Phoenix/Seattle Under 217
Everyone assumes that when these 2 teams meet it will go over. It will obviously be high scoring, but that does not mean it will necessarily go 'over' as that is indicative of the line that is set only. For example, did you know the last 7 times these 2 teams have met the game has gone under the posted total. Time and time again, I have watched this under hit and time and time again the public continues to love the over here. Both times these 2 teams have met this year it has gone in favor of Seattle covering the double-digit number and the game going under. Keep in mind that Phoenix played a double-overtime game and that could have some remnance on this game but this is a trend that I think is worth taking advantage of here. The Sonics typically play the under when they play a straight up winning team as they are 5-0 to the under when they play a team with a winning record, the under is 9-2 when the Sonics play a team with a winning home record - meaning the under typically hits when the Sonics play the better teams in the league and the under is 5-1 in Phoenix when these 2 teams match up there of late.
Clippers/Raptors Over 196
Look for this game to top 200 for several reasons. Keep in mind this and the other total that I have set for today's card are my 4th and 5th plays of preference but I like this for a few reasons. First, the home team continues to dictate the pace in this series. When the game is at L.A. the game is likely to go under, when the game is in Toronto, the game is likely to go over. Take a look at these numbers - keep in mind these 2 teams have kept relatively the same players the last 2 years:
12/8/97: Clippers 77 - Toronto 80 (in LAC)
2/04/07: Toronto 122 and Clippers 110 (in Tor)
12/20/06: Clippers 96 and Toronto 98 (in LAC)
2/5/06: Toronto 113 and Clippers 115 (overtime) (in Tor)
Long story short, when the game is in Toronto, the game typically takes a faster pace. Check out Toronto's scores of late: 114 at Miami, 101, 122, 104, 106 and 114. Plus, I like the fact the Clippers dropped over a 100 against Boston the other night and the fact they have revenge and are likely to be an active dog which favors my active dog/over theory that I have written extensively about. The over is 5-2 when the Clips are underdogs of this range and the over is 4-0 when the Raps are favored of late.
