Drew Gordon Writeups
Drew Gordon Writeups
Drew Gordon
1. 200,000♦ Traiblazers
2. 50,000♦ Marquette
3. 50,000♦ San Diego
1. 200,000 Trailblazers- This is a critical match up for both teams, as Portland sits one game back from Denver in the Northwest standings. A win here would not only pull the Blazers even with the Nuggets, but also give them the season series 3-1, which could mean everything in a close race coming down the stretch.
No better place to do it than the Rose Garden, where the Blazers have been money, going 19-5 SU & 15-9 ATS there this season! They maybe just 2-2 SU over their last 4 home games, but it hasn't been the defenses fault, allowing just 88 ppg over that span. Its been the offense that's struggled, but look for that to change dramastically tonight, as the Nuggets road defense is atrocious, allowing upwards of 109 ppg on 47% shooting this season!
Injuries are also a concern for Denver, as Eduardo Najera will give it a go with bruised ribs, but it appears as though Marcus Camby may not play, listed as questionable with a knee bruise. If he doesn't go, or is limited, it will be huge edge for the Nuggets, as Camby is by far their best rebounder and interior defender. If you thought the Nuggets defense was paper mache' with Camby... Imagine without him!
Finally, its hard to argue with the outstanding team play of this Portland team. You have to watch the play to get a real sense of how much chemistry this Blazers team posseses. It all starts with Brandon Roy, who's a true up-and-coming star, coming off a triple double in the Blazers OT win over the Knicks Friday. Look for another strong effort from Roy, who should easily slice and dice this Nuggets defense to shreds tonight at home.
Bottom line, the Blazers do what they do best, protect their house and grab the cash in the process tonight. They've got a huge advantage on defense, especially if Camby is out, and their offense gets exactly what the doctor ordered with a road-weary Nuggets defense coming to town. In the end, Blazers roll!
Take the Trailblazers comfortably over the Nuggets as your top-rated play of the day.
2. 50,000 Marquette- Its payback time for the Golden Eagles, who got thrashed by this Cardinals team 71-51 at Freedom Hall back in mid-January. Now back at home, where they're undefeated 12-0 on the season, look for the tables to turn, and here's why:
In their first meeting this season, Marquette happened to catch Louisville when they were rolling, off 3 straight wins, including that win at Kentcuky that gave the Cardinals a huge boost. This time around, the Cardinals are a lot more vulnerable, having lost at Seton Hall badly and at Connecticut in 2 of their last 3 road games.
The big difference here is defense, plain and simple. The Golden Eagles defense at Freedom Hall was suspect, but that won't be the case tonight at the Bradley Center, where they allow just 57 ppg on 37% shooting this season. Louisville on the other hand, sees their defense let up considerably on the road, allowing 5 more points per game when they travel (from 60 to 65 ppg).
Therein lies the problem for the Cardinals, because unlike their first meeting, Marquette can and will score at home, where they drop in 80 ppg on 47% shooting. I mean Marquette shot just 30% at Freedom Hall, scoring 51 points for the contest... If you think Hayward and James are going to score a combined 9 points on 3 fro 15 shooting, you got another thing coming!
Bottom line, because of the recent success and public perception of Louisville, coupled with the recent struggles of Marquette ATS, we're getting this game at a bargain price. You know payback is one of the biggest motivators in college sports, and the fact the Golden Eagles are excellent at home only stregthens this play!
Take Marquette over Louisville in this Big East showdown.
3. 50,000. San Diego- Two major factors carry most of the wieght in my decision to back the Toreros on the road in this one. First and foremost, San Diego has been an excellent road bet for some time now, going 43-18 ATS over their last 61 road games! A trend like that is extremely hard to ignore, and the fact they're playing at Pepperdine only makes it that much more relevant.
Guys, in case you haven't noticed, Pepperdine is terrible. They're 7-15 SU overall and just 2-4 ATS at home this season. Not only that, but their coach just up and resigned in the middle of the season, leaving his team questioning everything from their own ability to their reason for even playing at Pepperdine! They have two wins over their last 11 games, with one coming against cupcake NAIA Hope Internatiional. Guys, this team is done, and San Diego takes full advantage tonight.
Biggest disparity between these two teams (among many) is defense... The Torreros play it, the Waves do not, plain and simple. Waves are allowing a mind-boggling 84 ppg on 50% shooting over their last 5 games, as compared to just 59 ppg allowed on 43% shooting by this Torreros defense over the same span! Pepperdine's # 1 weapon is the 3-pointer, which plays right into the heart of this San Diego defense, which excels along the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot just 29% from beyond the arc over their last 5 games!
Finally, while the Pepperdine offense has better stats than San Diego, match ups tell a different story. The Torreros top-3 players, G Brandon Johnson (top-scorer, top-assist man, top steal-man on his team), and forwards Pomare (7 for 7 14 points last game) and Jones (13 for 22 27 points 14 rebounds last game), are all heads and shoulder better than their counterparts on this sputtering Pepperdine squad.
Bottom line, forget about the home court edge, because the Waves are bad wherever they play. Look for the Torreros to build off their solid 5-1 conference record with an relatively easy win here against a tail-spinning Pepperdine squad tonight.
Take San Diego over Pepperdine in this WCC match up.