INDIAN COWBOY
Magic (POD) -4.5
Automatic Promos on POD: 3 Winning weeks in a Row, Only Handicapper to be above 60% in the NBA 2007 after 128 Plays (78-50) - Documented. January Recap: Winning 21 of 31 Days (68%), +24 Units and 25% ROI, Winning 4 of 6 Months and Never had back to back losing months and Haven't lost back to back days since January 4th/5th. Winning 23 of 35 Days (66%) and 25 of 38 POD Winners (64%) doing 1 POD per day.
The Magic have been playing solid basketball and their defensive rankings have gone up late considering how well they have been playing on the defensive side of the ball. Plus, if you remember, earlier this year the Magic lost a hard fought ballgame on the road at Dallas by a final score of 111-108. It's not that they had played terrible but the Dallas home crowd simply propelled them to victory in that ballgame. The Magic surely remember that game as they face a Dallas team that is sitll without Devin Harris and Jerry Stackhouse. Why does that matter? Well, this team didn't put up more than 70 points agianst the Pistons who were in a similar revenge game and pounded this team at home - why can't the Magic do it? The Magic in fact beat the Pistons at home themselves in an outright win and although Dallas is on the bounce-back here I wouldn't be suprised if Stan Van Gundy releases the hounds today in a big win in front of the home crowd with revenge. The Magic have sound depth considering their outside shooters and I suspect the role players will drop in a few 3's today as the Mavs will likely lose their legs and defensive intensity in the second half. The Magic are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 ballgames against a team with a winning straight up record meaning they are getitng up for the better teams in the league and the Mavs are just 1-4-2 ATS agains such winning teams of late.
Portland/Denver Under 201.5
Every time these 2 teams play, the public jumps all over the over in this game and I have the consensus slightly over 60% for the over here and frankly, this shouldn't be the case given the numbers. Let it be know that the Blazers are an under team and Nate McMillan knows how to defend this Denver team, after all, the Blazers have beat the Nuggets the last the last 2 times and when the game is Denver, Portland is a dog and the game goes over, but when the game is Potland, Portland is the favorite and the game likely goes under. Do you need your tums for this game? Yes. However, I think both teams hit in the high 90's here but this game still goes under. Go back to the Denver games on the road at Atlanta similar defensive team and they scored just 93 points. Portland allowed just 83 points to Cleveland at home and 89 to Houston. Look for a game that dips under today when all is set and done as the under is 5-1 when the Nuggs are underdogs of late, under is 6-0 when the Blazers are small faves of late and under is 11-3 for Portland following an ATS loss.
Houston/Minny Over 188.5
This is my third favorite play today but it makes sense for a couple of reasons. As mentioned in the research today the Twolves got drilled on the road at Houston by 30+ points. Does this mean they can win outright at home today? Sure. They beat the Warriors on the road, they beat the Suns at home, the Bulls at home and the Nets at home - this is the most improved team in the league over the past 2 weeks according to my numbers as I run spreadsheets on teams that are the most improved before the oddsmakers adjust their lines - I run 6 spreadsheets for different reasonings such as the most improved in the last 2 weeks and this is a new spreadsheet that I am running - it was the basis of GOM a while back on the Twolves. Does this mean they win today? Maybe, but I'd rather take the over as I do believe they will be an active dog today. After all, the Rockets were supposed to lose the cover with the Bucks and yet managed to cover so I do respect the Rockets enough to take the over here. If you remember, I took the over for the Rockets on the road at Indiana and I think the same is here while Minny pushes the tempo up. The public thinks this game is likely to go under, but that seems a bit too obvious doesn't it? In short, I think Minny gets fired up from the previous loss, they push the tempo, Houston pulls away in the end likely, but not before this game likely goes over. The over is 6-1 when the Rockets are favored by this margin of late and my favorite stat the over is 10-2-1 when the Rockets play a team with a losing home record meaning teams are getting up for the Rockets and playing above expectations such as today.
