Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 200,000♦ Connecticut
2. 50,000♦ Jazz
3. 50,000♦ Boise State
1. Connecticut- While it appears the suspensions of guards Dyson and Wiggins will stand in tonight's showdown with Louisville, I'm still calling for the Huskies to get the home win and cover here.
First and foremost, its always important to watch for teams that are beginning to peak, and right now there's no better time to jump all over the surging Huskies. They've won 3 straight (2-1 ATS) against formidable competition, including Marquette at home, and their HUGE victory at Assembly Hall against the Hoosiers Saturday. Say what you will about the suspensions in the backcourt, but its the Huskies frontcourt that wins games (on both offense and defense).
Second, the Cardinals are a team built much like Connecticut, with a strong frontline. However, match ups clearly dictate an edge for the Huskies, who are anchored down-low by 7'3 Hasheem Thabeet (11 ppg, 7 rpg, 69 swats on season). His presence alone changed the game against the Hoosiers, who were unable to attack the basket with any success. Williams, Clark, Padgett, and Caracter make up a deep Cardinals frontline, but Adrien, Thabeet, and Robinson are the better overall unit and playing at home doesn't hurt either.
Finally, we all know UCONN likes to run-and-gun with the basketball, but over the course of their 3-game win streak, we're starting to see this team come together on the defense end. Their last home game, an 89-73 rout of Marquette, should serve as a perfect example, as the Huskies never stopped coming on offense, but also never lost focus on defense.
Bottom line, Connecticut continues to surge with another complete effort tonight at home against the Cardinals in this one. Huskies got a huge confidence-building win at Indiana Saturday (sans Dyson or Wiggins), and an all-important Big East win against Louisville puts them puts them right back in the national spotlight.
Take Connecticut over Louisville as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Jazz- Don't like what I've seen from the Spurs over the last month and a half, going 11-11 SU & 6-16 ATS over that span, looking like a team that's getting real old, real fast. Granted, they're still formidable in a seven game series, but right now, they're effort just isn't consistent from game to game, and they'll pay for it tonight.
Utah on the other hand, has won 9 of their last 10 SU, going 8-2 ATS over that span. They're playing like we all know they can, combining a red-hot offense with just enough defense. Over their last 5 games, their averaging 109 ppg on 51% shooting, as comapred to the Spurs, who are sputtering at 89 ppg on 46% shooting over the same stretch!
Let's examine the trends here, as the home team is 10-1 ATS over their last 11 meetings. That shouldn't surprise you, as the Jazz have been consistently terrible on the road, but excellent at home. More of the same tonight, as the Jazz are not only 14-7 ATS in Salt Lake, but also coming off two impressive victories - Beating a suddenly hot Sacremento team 127-113 at home, and going to Houston and stomping on the Rockets 97-89 yesterday.
Bottom line, the Spurs are vulnerable in this spot, playing average basketball, and facing a red-hot Jazz team in Salt Lake tonight. Utah is 22-8-1 ATS over their last 31 home games, and you can add another one to the win column after tonight!
Take the Jazz at home over the Spurs in this NBA match up.
3. Boise State- The Broncos are an interesting team, because they're one of the few squads that actually has more success on the road (7-2 SU & 5-1 ATS) than at home (7-3 SU & 3-5 ATS). They're coming off a confidence-building rout of Hawaii at home, which tells me this team is finally learning how to win wherever they play. Back on the road tonight, look for the Broncos offense to be the difference here.
Speaking of offense, the Broncos are averaging a red-hot 85 ppg on 53% shooting on the road this season! Those numbers are mind-boggling, but true, as Idaho and Nevada found out the hard way. Their win against the Wolfpack in Reno was especially impressive, shooting 54% from the field, knocking in 95 points with only 11 turnovers beating a solid Nevada team outright 95-80!
Make no mistake, Fresno State is no pushover at home, and will give Boise State a run for their money. However, the Bulldogs have several shortcomings that will eventually doom them in this match up. First of all, they're averaging only 67 ppg on 40% shooting over their last 5 games (2-3 ATS)... That's not nearly enough to hang with this high-octane Broncos offense. And second, you'd think maybe their defense would make the difference, but that wasn't the case against St. Mary's or San Diego State, both of which dominated this Bulldogs defense in Fresno.
Finally, match ups also hurt this Fresno State squad, as they simply do not have the frontline talent to counter Boise State's trio of forwards Larry, Nelson, and Tiedeman. Larry and Nelson are both solid scorers who are excellent on the glass, while sharpshooter Tiedeman is shooting 53% from the floor and 51% from 3-point!
Bottom line, Boise State's prowess on the road surfaces again here tonight, as the Broncos take it to a good, but not great Fresno State team. Note that the road team in this series is 13-1-1 ATS over their last 15, while Boise State is 8-1-1 ATS over their last 11 meetings... 'Nuff said!
Take Boise State over Fresno State in this WAC match up.
