Drew Gordon Writeups
Drew Gordon Writeups
Drew Gordon Writeups
Today's Games...
1. 300,000♦ Boston College
2. 50,000♦ Washington
3. 50,000♦ Purdue
4. 50,000♦ Bobcats
1. Boston College- Several reasons to love the Eagles in this spot, but let's start with reasons to fade the Hokies. Sure, Virginia Tech got the outright win at rival Virgnia, but losses at Georgia Tech and at Richmond are better barometers of their road play. Those games clearly demonstrated the Hokies issues on offense, averaging just 64 ppg on 39% shooting away this season. Most importantly, how good do you think the Virginia Tech offense will be coming off a tough home loss to Duke just 48-hours ago?! Fatigue, both mental and physical, become an issue here, as the time crunch seriously hurts the Hokies in this one.
It wouldn't be so bad if the Eagles were also coming off a recent game, but the fact of the matter is Boston College hasn't played in 6 days! They've surely used that time to not only rest, but prepare for this all-important conference match up. Since losing back-to-back home games to Kansas and Robert Morris, the Eagles are playing some of their best basketball, crushing Wake Forest and easily beating Miami-Florida in their last two home games!
Match ups are also an issue for the Hokies, as the Eagles backcourt of Tyrese Rice and Rakim Sanders can and will dominate the Tech guards. Rice is simply too quick, while you can expect Sanders to bounce back from a sub-par effort against Virginia. Hokies are a frontcourt-heavy team, but the suspension of F Jeff Allen, their best rebounder and second-leading scorer, is a big blow. Also, good luck to forwards Vassallo and Washington matched up against the ACC best shot blocker in Eagles F Tyrelle Blair (67 swats on season). Burly F Shamari Spears should also find success against the short-handed Hokies frontline.
Finally, let's talk about the Eagles offense is general, which has been dominant at home of late, dropping a mind-boggling 123 against Wake Forest AND then 76 points against a strong Miami-Florida defense in the following game. Just how do you expect this Hokies team to keep pace, especially considering their match up issues? The answer: They won't, plain and simple. Look for a rested/well-prepared Boston College team to come out firing after their loss to Viriginia, while a tired Hokies squad, still shell-shocked from Duke, gets hammered once again this afternoon.
Take Boston College BIG over Virginia Tech as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Washington- I can understand after watching just how badly this Huskies squad played in Tucson last year, why some people would be siding with the Wildcats in this one. But before you go dismissing Washington, recall they're coming off three straight solid PAC-10 victories, including an outright upset at Arizona State Thursday. While they may not win outright here, you can expect this game to stay within the number and here's why:
First, Huskies F Jon Brockman has been on an absolute tear, averaging 22 ppg and 15 rebounds per game over his last 3 (all wins). He faces a tough match up down-low with F Jordan Hill, but Brockman is smart enough and tough enough to get the job done against the foul-prone Hill.
Second, while Bayless is definately the best player on the court, the backcourt of Appleby/Morris/Dentmon is capable of keeping pace offensively, especially with Appleby and Morris both shooting over 40% from beyond the arc.
Also, let's look at the numbers, as the underdog in this series is a solid 10-4-1 ATS over their last 15 meetings. Not only that, but for all the talk about the Wildcats at home, they're 6-14 ATS over their last 20 in Tucson... So don't go telling me their a good bet at home, because they're not, period.
Bottom line, overlook Washington in this spot at your own risk, as the Huskies are coming off an impressive victory at Arizona State, and have all the pieces in place to keep this contest competitive. Arizona has been burning their backers money at home for some time now, and they'll do it again this afternoon.
Take Washington plus the points over Arizona in this PAC-10 match up.
3. Purdue- Wisconsin is walking into the lions den here this afternoon, as history has shown the home team does well in this series, going 7-3 ATS over their last 10 meetings. Not only that, but the Badgers have been a piss-poor bet of late, going 1-4 ATS over their last 5.
Can't say the same about the Boilermakers, who've been rolling, winners of 4 in a row SUATS! They've been doing it with a nice balance of perimeter-based offense, and aggressive defense. They forced Ohio State into 20 turnovers and Illinois into 21 turnovers over their last two home games, and will be looking to do the same today against Wisky G Trevon Hughes, who's 49 assists to 44 turnovers is a bad sign of things to come against this Purdue defense.
All you have to do is pop in the tape of last season's meeting in Madison, and you'll see just how little fear this Boilermakers team has of Wisconsin. They went into the Kohl Center, shot 45%, limited the Badgers to 40%, and easily covered the 13'-point spread 69-64. A lot of new faces for both teams, but still the same guard-oriented system from Purdue, which has proven successful in the past.
Finally, while many are concerned about the Badgers frontcourt, I'm telling you not to worry too much. Forwards Calasan and Johnson are both decent players, but in reality, its the Boilermakers guards who do a lot of the dirty work. Also, if you've seen him play, you know Brian Butch is not good enough offensively to take advantage of his size edge, averaging just 7 ppg over his last 3.
Bottom line, Boilermakers protect their house against a good, but not great Badgers squad in this one. Purdue has had success against the Wisky in the past, and this year's version of the Badgers is far less potent without Tucker or Taylor to worry about. Let's not forget Purdue has been a cash-cow against the Big Ten, going 16-5 ATS over their last 21 in conference. Boilermakers roll!
Take Purdue at home over Wisconsin in afternoon Big Ten action.
4. Bobcats- Don't look now, but the Bobcats are actually playing well, going 6-5 SU & an impressive 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games. Outright wins at Boston, against Denver and Orlando, have this team playing with confidence. Make no mistake, Charlotte would like nothing more than to make up for its early season debacle at Philly, where they scored a franchise-low 62 points, and I say they get it done tonight.
Why? Well, let's start with the excellent play of the Bobcats frontcourt. Okafor has been a defensive/rebounding monster (not to mention contributing 21 points in his last one), helping Charlotte lock-down opponents to the tune of 94 ppg over their last 5 games. While both Wallace and Richardson have led the way offensively. Besides Iguodala, the rest of the Bobcats frontcourt should dominate their match ups, as Dalembert and Evans are average at best.
Wondering why the Bobcats did so poorly against the 76ers the last time out? One big reason was the absence of Ray Felton, who's been absolutely key to this Charlotte offense, posting 7+ assists per game. Without him, the penetration this Bobcats frontcourt thrives off of disappears, leaving a bunch of guys standing around. Andre Miller stands little chance of defending the much quicker Felton in this one.
Finally, have you seen this 76ers team play of late? They've lost 11 of their last 13 SU & are just 4-9 ATS over that span. If you saw their last road game, an 89-81 loss at the Knicks, you'd understand my point here. They're playing garbage basketball right now, especially on offense, averaging just 90 ppg on 44% shooting (25% from 3-point) over their last 5 games. A trip to Charlotte to face a motivated, defensively-oriented Bobcats squad won't do much to help their struggles. Bobcats get the solid home win and cover in this one.
Take the Bobcats comfortably over the 76ers in this NBA match up.