SERVICE PLAYS FOR SAT. 1/26

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Doc's Sports Picks For College Basketball

4 Unit Play. #516 Take Northeastern -6 over Hofstra (1:00 pm) This is a fade play against the Pride, who were blown out by VCU on Wednesday and now must travel into a hostile environment in Hempstead, NY. The Huskies have a solid front court full of big bodies and they should be able to do their damage down low and pull away late to win this game by double-digits.

4 Unit Play. #520 Take Florida State -8 over North Carolina State (1:30 pm ESPN Fullcourt) The Wolf Pack had been scrapping by lately and suffered a tough home loss to Georgia Tech on Wednesday. They are just 1-3 in ACC Conference play and really have trouble scoring the basketball. The Noles got on track after three straight losses against Virginia on Wednesday and will carry that momentum into Saturday by beating a much worse NC State squad.

4 Unit Play. #554 Take Purdue +1 over Wisconsin (4:00 pm ESPN) This game is the best the Big Ten has to offer this far into the season, as these squads combine for an 11-1 record. These teams are very similar, but I think Purdue has an advantage at the guard position. Purdue has dominated this series in West Lafayette and Wisconsin is well aware of their struggles. Wisconsin is not that good of team and has been winning lately based on effort. But when they have faced good teams, they have struggled to hold their own, losing to Marquette and Duke, and barely getting by Texas. This game means more to Purdue, to prove that they are an elite team that belongs in the upper class of the Big Ten. Purdue makes a statement on Saturday and we collect big in the process.

4 Unit Play. #561 Take Ole Miss +6 over Mississippi State (5:00 pm ESPN Fullcourt) The Egg Bowl basketball style takes place in Starkville, MS and we will jump at the opportunity to grab nearly a touchdown with the underdog. Chris Warren may be the best player on the floor as he can score and dish the basketball. These teams are evenly matched in if this were played in Oxford, Ole Miss would be a six point favorite. Home court does not make that much difference, as this one goes down to the wire and we collect with whoever comes out on top by a bucket.

7 Unit Play. #570 Take Iowa -5.5 over Penn State (6:00 pm Big 10 Network) College Game of the Year. This is a fade play against Penn State, who has fallen off the earth since Claxton went down with a leg injury. They have lost four straight games with three of them coming at home. The last three have been without Claxton and have been way over tonight?s posted number. One thing that also bodes well for Iowa is three point shooting, as the Lions are last in the conference in defending the arc. This has always been a staple of Coach Todd Lickliter and expect them to score at least 20 points from beyond the arc. The Lions cannot wait for this season to end and Coach DeChellis is hinting that he may not be back after saying his team lacked effort against Purdue on Wednesday. It is not all of his fault, as Claxton was a double-double guy and you just cannot replace that type of player. Iowa has also this series winning at a clip of more then 2-1. Iowa will jump on them early and Penn State will throw in the towel with another double-digit defeat.

4 Unit Play. #581 Take Washington State -2.5 over Arizona State (7:00 pm FSN) A pivotal game in the PAC-10 takes place with two teams coming off a conference loss on Thursday. Wazzou won both meetings last year and they need this victory to get back on track, as some of questioned their record based on playing a weak non-conference schedule. WSU will frustrate the Devils into turnovers and once they get the lead, they will coast to a victory with their deliberate style of offense.

4 Unit Play. #623 Take Bradley +2 over Wichita State (8:00 pm) This is another fade play against the Shockers, as we have collect big with them in recent weeks with the fade route. The Shockers are just 1-7 in the MVC Conference and have lost all four of their home games. Bradley has won three of their last four games and a win here will put them at .500 in the conference. Wichita State has nothing left to bring and we will collect again going against them with the fade.

4 Unit Play. #649 Take Hawaii +1.5 over Idaho (10:00 pm) Too bad teams do battle in Moscow, ID and we will side with the visitor, who looks to move over .500 on the season in conference play. Idaho shoot lights out from the 3-point line on Thursday and will not be able to repeat that performance. Hawaii earns a rare road victory and we collect big in the process.
 
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HELMUT

YTD
5-4 (2-unit)
53-33 (1-unit)


539/540 Yale @ Brown under 135.5 (1-unit)

The Bears are currently ranked #307 in pace with 62.9 possessions per game. Since Dec 6 the Bears have eight games and averaged 62 possessions per game including games against up-tempo teams Hartford, Notre Dame, Providence and Baylor.

The previous meeting a week ago between these teams was played just under 62 possessions for each team. The Bulldogs shot 50% from the field in the game with there only being 114 points scored in regulation. This is not a high scoring conference with Bear conference games averaging 127 total points and Bulldog conference games averaging 132 points last season.

The Bulldogs have played some high scoring up-tempo games this season but all of those games were against up-tempo teams with a kenpom pace above 70 possessions. Removing the 69+ possession teams from the Bulldog schedule shows an average of 64 possessions per game.

Statistically both of these teams have bad defenses however one must remember that each team has played several teams from the power conferences and should show improved defense when facing talent at a similar level. I just don?t think there will be enough possessions to push this game over the total.


545/546 Colorado @ Missouri under 143 (1-unit)

The Buffalo?s come into this team ranked at the bottom for pace in the Big 12 with an average of 62.7 possessions per game. Through 17 games only two games have been played over this total and each opponent shot 60%+ from the field, as well as the Buffalo?s shooting 60%+ themselves in one of those games.

A large percentage of the Buffalo?s scoring comes from behind the line at that plays right into what the Tiers excel in defense as the Tigers are currently #2 in the league in perimeter defense allowing opponents to shoot 26.5% from behind the line.

The Tigers have played only three teams (Fordham, Illinois and Coppin St.) that like to slow it down and none of these games came close to this total. I also think the Tiger pressure defense can create havoc and cause the Buffalo?s to turn it over. Last came out against Kansas State the Buffalo?s turned it over 17 times in a 65 possession game. I think it?s going to take an 80+ point outing from the Tigers to get over this number. The Buffalo?s only allowed that many points twice this season and each team needed to shoot 60%+ to get their. In what should be a 65-67 possession game I?ll take my chances on the under here.
 
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Strike Point Sports Picks For College Basketball

Saturday's College Basketball Plays



1.5-Unit Play. #517 Take Connecticut +9 over Indiana (1 pm)

I see a very competitve, physical game in Bloomington this afternoon. And any physical game involving UConn, it definitely favors the Huskies. Known to struggle a bit away from Storrs, however I like their depth and size over a smaller and thin Indiana squad. The Hoosiers have yet to be tested at home, and this one will be their most difficult yet. The number will be good here, if not seeing Connecticut prevailing outright.

6-Unit Play (Game of the Week). #535 Take Auburn +8 over Alabama (3 pm)

Could the Tigers have turned a corner this year? Well, three straight wins, not to mention they face a Tide team that is dipping, and fast. Alabama has dropped four in a row. When you think Auburn, it's mostly about football, however this year's hoops team is 12-5 and a nice 5-2 on the road. The Tigers are 8-2 ATS in their last ten vs. the SEC and 7-2 ATS in their last nine on the road. Auburn has won the last two in this series and covered the last three. They are certainly the play here, showing more over the last month.

2-Unit Play. #558 Take San Diego State -3 over UNLV (4 pm)

The Aztecs have been a tough out at home this season, impressing to the tune of a 10-1 record. San Diego State has won the last three meetings at home against the Rebels, not to mention they are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine overall vs. UNLV. Give me the small home favorite in this MWC clash.

3.5-Unit Play. #583 Take Sanford -1.5 over California (7 pm)

Here's a case where we have two Pac-10 schools going in opposite directions. The Cardinal are ascending up the top 25 poll, and are arguably the hottest team in their league. Stanford has won four of their last five in conference play. Conversely, Cal has lost four of its last five Pac-10 games, including its last three home games. This game will feature each's dominant starting frontcourt, but I'll take the Lopez twins, and a better supporting cast. They'll lead Stanford to victory in this west coast rivalry game.

2-Unit Play. #623 Take Bradley +2 over Wichita State (8 pm)

The Braves owe some payback to WSU for a home loss to the Shockers earlier in the year. And despite that setback, it's Bradley that is playing the better basketball. The Braves have won three of its last four in conference play, while Wichita State has lost five straight. In those games the Shockers managed to score above 60 just once. In this one the underdog will come through with the outright win.
 
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Winning Points Online NCAAB.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 26

5 pm
**PREFERRED
Southern Miss* over Rice by 27

The obstacles and issues referred to in the newsletter
are NOT the prior absence of Southern Miss head coach
Larry Eustachy during road losses to opponents that
outclassed Southern Miss -- UAB and Memphis.

The obstacles and issues are that Rice is bad and they
aren't getting better. Fine, they covered against Houston
in an intra-city rivalry. Houston is a one-dimensional team
with a history of under-performing as the favorite. Southern
Miss has no history of being favored because the program
has been off the radar for a long time.

Eustachy's mother passed away in California, but now he
has returned from his temporary absence leave and his
team will have had a week between games to prepare to
wash away the taste of the expected 0-2 road trip. Rice's
leading scorer is a 6-8, 220 sophomore who will be having
his shot blocked by Southern Miss' 7-footer Gijo Bain. Rice's
second-leading scorer scores 10.1 points per game in 31
minutes per game. Compare that to Southern Miss -- not a
great team, but their second-leading scorer Horton averages
12 per game in 28 minutes -- more points, fewer minutes.

The coach is feeling the heat, despite the personal setback.
He was away, and the team got blown away. Everyone is
forgetting about the 71-54 win against Tulane on this floor
that happened just before the 0-2 trip, Southern Miss' only
win since December 20. But Rice has lost 8 in a row,
scores only 55.5 points per game and has the nation'
worst turnover rate per offensive possession. Their bad
shooting (36.4% overall!) ensures that a Southern Miss team
with 40.8 rebounds per game will get its share of one-and-dones
on the defensive end. Some low-profile home team is going to
score an easier-than-expected blowout win today. Why
not Southern Miss? SOUTHERN MISS, 79-52.
 
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Net Prophet

NBA:

Memphis -3 over LA Clippers
New Orleans +5' over San Antonio

NHL:

All Star Break

CBB:

Notre Dame +2 over Villanova
Hofstra +6 over Northeastern
Colorado +7 over Missouri
BYU -5' over New Mexico
 
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Indian cowboy

West Virginia (POD) -2.5

Automatic Promos on POD Selection: Winning 5 of 6 days (83%), 18 of 25 Days in January (72%) and winning 19 of 26 days (73%). 9-4 this week. Haven't lost back to back days since January 4/5th. 7 of 8 POD Winners and 22 of 29 POD Winners (76%) - Almost 1 Month of POD's at 76% doing 1 per Month. 18-7 POD Run in January (72%). Only Handicapper in the Nation to still be at 60% for Basketball 2007 after 169 Plays - Documented.

Although Georgetown is ranked 9th in the nation, they are underdoged on the road and for good reason. Folks, although Georgetown is a solid team, they face a very difficult task on the road today. According to my spreadsheets, Georgetown is the 6th best team in the country, but what if I told you that West Virginia, who is not ranked because they do not play well on the road - however, at home they are undefeated - is the 2nd best team in the country at home? The Mountaineers according to my power rankings are simply the 2nd best team in the nation at home next to Kansas - they are that good. Although the public favors Georgetown by about 60% here, there is a reason why the unranked Mountaineers are favored over the ranked Hoyas. In short, neither of these teams are terrible as they are both solid, but in the Big East, home court advantage is a big deal and look for West Virginia has done at home this year - it's striking. They are 9-0 at home including beating Marquette who is a top 20 school by 15, beating Cuse by 20 at home, beating a very good team and this team still has fresh in its mind the spanking it took last year on the road at Georgetown losing 71-53. Also, remember this, for as good as Georgetown is, they have to beat a top 25 team on the road - they lost to Pitt by 9 who is a top 25 power ranking team and Memphis by 15 who is a top 5 power ranking team - West Virginia is a top 25 power ranking team. The Hoyas are just 1-4 ATS against teams with a winning % of greater than 60% meaning they struggle to cover the spread against better teams and West Virginia is 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning % of greater than 60% at home - meaning they show up against better teams.

Rice +16

You might want to hold your nose while you make this wager, similar to many of the other ugly teams we have wagered on with success. Rice has 3 wins - they are terrible right? Sure, but not 16 points terrible to Southern Miss. Now, Rice could just as easily get blown out here but they have a decent track record. First, the bad - Rice did beat Southern Miss last year by 15 at home by a score of 70-55 and Southern Miss comes off a shellacking on the road at Memphis so they will likely be fired up for this game. Furthermore, Rice is a top 300 team while Southern Miss is a top 200 team. Now, for the good - although Rice has just 3 wins, they played top 100 Houston at home and lost by just 9. They played top 150 Tulane on the road and lost by just 6 - remember Southern Miss is top 200. They played top 50 Oklahoma on the road and lost by 11 and they played top 20 Vandy on the road and lost by 18 - but remember, Southern Miss is getting similar respect for being a top 200 team. Three wins or not, this line should not be this big and Rice for being a "terrible" team has been one of the best ATS teams of 2008 as they have covered their last 7 of 9 and their last 3 in a row after a dismal ATS start. This is a "ballzy" play similar to the Twolves yesterday on the road at Boston, but Rice is 6-1 ATS as an underdog of 13 points or more, have covered 4 of their last 5 ballgames on the road and are 7-2 ATS following a straight up loss.

Sixers/Bobcats Under 191

I would love to hit #8 in a row here on the comp picks, so we'll see what turns up. In a card full of college plays, this is my only nba play with the other 2 on the college card. Do you remember the last game these 2 played in? The final score was 94-63 so just based on that alone, the Bobcats have massive revenge. However, I have a standard rule of never trusting the Bobcats as their lack of bench does cost them ballgames in the second half. But, to their credit they beat a Bulls team who in their defense were hobbled by injuries. I would lean on the Bobcats but the Sixers come off a tough loss to the Knicks and they will look to bounce-back and I think they tighten up on defense tonight. It seems that whenever the Bobcats and Sixers meet, they typically go under as they have played the under the last 6 of 7 times they have met, the last 4 in Charlotte have gone under and the under is 5-1 when the Bobcats play a team with a straight up losing record - meaning that they do not show up and cover against the teams that they should be covering against. I'll take a chance that these offenses will have their scoring lulls as they typically do during this ballgame as well.
 
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chicago hotsides

1 UNIT EACH:

LB ST +13 -120
DRAKE -7 -140
S ILL -3 -120
OK ST +2
OK +5 -120
PURDUE +2 -120
CAL +2
W VA -3
BYU -6 -120
ST. JOE -1 -120
B COLL -5 -130
 
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