SERVICE PLAYS FOR SAT. 12/29
- Thread starter GIANTS007
- Start date
Kelso Sturgeon
COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK
25 Units
KENT STATE (-12) over Cleveland State
Prediction: Kent State by 19-20
COLLEGE GAME OF THE WEEK
25 Units
KENT STATE (-12) over Cleveland State
Prediction: Kent State by 19-20
- Nov 28, 2007
- 8,587
- 18
- 0
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Saturday Picks and Writeups:
Tonight's Games...
1. 300,000♦ Penn State
2. 50,000♦ N.Y. Giants
3. 50,000♦ UAB
1. Penn State- We should be thankful the Aggies knocked off Texas in the regular seasons finale, because that win made this game that much more affordable. Guys, this one comes down to defense - The Lions got it, the Aggies don't. But handicapping college bowls is never that simple, so let me break it down for you:
The biggest problem Texas A&M faces is their own one-dimensional offense against a stout Nittany Lions front 7, led by LBs Dan Connor and Sean Lee, plus DE Maurice Evans (12.5 sacks). All you have to do is watch tape of the Lions last 3 games, where their defense allowed 18 ppg on just 72 rushing yards per contest, and you'll see exactly what I mean. No doubt McGee/Lane/Goodson make up a nasty trio, but down the stretch against ranked teams, they averaged 127 total rushing yards per game on just 3.4 yards per carry. Lions may not be ranked, but their defense is # 6 against the rush on the season.
Offensively, its been an up-and-down year for QB Anthony Morelli, but with the extra time prepare I believe he can and will deliver against a very average Aggies defense. Texas A&M posted a disgusting 21 TD to 7 INT ratio on the season, allowing 264 passing yards per contest! I know a lot of people have knocked Morelli over the course of the season (myself included), but let's recall last year's Outback Bowl, when he completed 14 of 25 passes for 197 and 1 TD. That kind of effort would almost guarantee a win here. Also, look for the RB tandem of Royster (6.1 yards per carry) and Kinlaw (5.1 yards per carry) to take a lot of pressure off the Lions passing attack.
Finally, there's no doubt Joe Paterno knows how to win bowl games, going 20-10-1 SU & 21-9-1 ATS over his career. Compare that to the Aggies interim head coach Darnell, who's 0-1 SUATS, and you've got the making of a huge coaching mismatch. Given time, Joe Pa can dissect any team, and with A&M's obvious deficiencies on defense, look for Penn State to capitalize accordingly. Lions roll!
Take Penn State comfortably over Texas A&M as your top-rated play of the day.
2. N.Y. Giants- Several factors come into play in this one, but none bigger than the fact neither team really has nothing to play for. What about the undefeated season? Well, first of all, Belichek isn't the type of coach to sacrifice a regular season record for a Super Bowl. And second, the Patriots can still win this game, get the record, and fail to cover, which is exactly what I expect will happen.
Make no mistake, as soon as Tom Brady comes out of the game (which he will) this Patriots offense will grind to a halt. Let me give you one perfect example: Do you remember when the Pats were destroying the Dolphins in Miami 42-7 in the third quarter, when backup Matt Cassell came into the game and promptly threw a pick-6 and got yanked by Belichek faster than the beads of sweat could form on his forehead?! Well, I do, and the backdoor remains wide open as long as Brady isn't on the field.
Even when he's on the field, the Giants do have one big edge, and that's their pass rush, which was posted 52 sacks this season. Granted, Belichek isn't stupid and will try to account for that, but so did a lot of other teams. If the Giants are to have any shot in this game, they'll rely on Strahan/Umenyiora/Tuck to put pressure on Brady.
Finally, while the Giants offense isn't great, they're coming off a confidence- building effort at Buffalo, where they dropped 38 points on the Bills, thanks in large part to their rushing attack of Jones and Bradshaw. Look for them to use that formula once again, slowing down the game, and forcing Brady to watch from the sideline as the clock winds down.
Bottom line, the Giants don't want to be remembered as the team that lost to the Patriots and gave them the 16-0 season. That motivation alone, plus the fact their last home game was fiasco, losing badly to the Redskins, you know the G-men will strap on their hard hats and come to play in this one. Patriots likely win, but covering the number on this contest is another story, especially if the starters are off the field for an extended time.
Take the N.Y. Giants plus the points over the Patriots in Saturday night NFL action.
3. UAB- Love this match up for the Blazers, as they've not only got the revenge angle, losing the Old Dominion last season 56-42, but also, this time around, UAB is a much better team and it'll show tonight.
Looking over both teams, its clear one has regressed (Monarchs) and one has grown (Blazers). Since last season, the once average Monarch offense has taken a step back into mediocrity, scoring just 63 ppg on 42% shooting. With only one player averaging double-figures, this Old Dominion team has no goto player.
While on the other hand, the Blazers are clearly led by Robert Vaden, who has blossomed since coming over from Indiana, averaging almost 20 ppg. Its not only Vaden, but forwards Sharpe and Huffman, who both could lead Old Dominion in scoring, that makes this UAB offense so dynamic. Granted, they won't be confused with any top-tier program yet, but they have all the tools necessary to dominate this match up.
If you think Old Dominion's seasonal stats are bad, you should see their pathetic numbers on the road, where they average just 58 ppg on 41% shooting. They'll be hard-pressed to even reach those numbers against a Blazers defense which is rock-solid at home, allowing 54 ppg on an outstanding 36% shooting (only 23% from 3-point). In the end, UAB gets its redemption and grabs the cash, returning the favor with a lopsided win and cover tonight against Old Dominion.
Take UAB comfortably over Old Dominion in this college hoops match up.
Today's Games...
1. 50,000♦ Central Florida
2. 50,000♦ Wyoming
1. Central Florida- For those of you who love trends, this play may seem a bit unusual, because everyone knows that the Knights have beaten only 1 SEC
team in school history (1-12 SU & 7-5 ATS). Well boys, make it 2 SEC teams in school history after today's Liberty Bowl and here's why:
First, if you know Central Florida football then you know star RB Kevin Smith, who's rushed for 2549 yards on 5.9 yards per carry, scoring 29 TDs! I don't care what anyone says, but even a team from a power conference like Mississippi State, will have little luck stopping him. The fact that the Bulldogs are already below average against the run can't be ignored, as they allow a whopping 159 rushing yards per game on the season!
Second, while the SEC gets most of the publicity (and deseverdly so) this Bulldogs team isn't your typical SEC team. They're defense is good, but not great, and their offense a joke, averaging 22 ppg on just 305 total yards. You'd think they would be able to score on this Knights defense at will, but the fact of the matter is Central Floridas' stop-unit has played well down the stretch, allowing 21 ppg on just 96 rushing yards over their last 3 games.
Finally, in case you didn't notice, the Knights finished the season winning 7 straight (5-2 ATS), and come into this game playing excellent football on both sides of the ball (averaging 43 ppg over their last 3). Mississippi State definately played the tougher schedule, but sleep on the Knights at your own risk. When the dust settles, Kevin Smith leads the Knights to the bowl win and cover!
Take Central Florida over Mississippi State in this afternoon's Liberty Bowl.
2. Wyoming- So many things wrong with this Wis.-Milwaukee squad its tough to decide were to start. How about the fact their two best players have been kicked off the team for separate disciplinary infractions!
Both G Smith and F Johnson were the heart and soul of this team, and losing both players doomed them to a season of mediocrity. The fact they lost Johnson a little under two weeks ago means this team is still dealing with a shift away from their best player. They were able to win and cover at home against Central Michigan without Johnson, but doing it today on the road is completely different story.
The Cowboys are a different team at home, going 4-0 (1-1 ATS) there this season. Their offense is slightly better, but what we really see is a tremendous increase in intensity on the defensive end. Wyoming allows 11 fewer points (73 to 62) and 10 fewer points in opponents field goal percentage (41% to 31%) when playing at home. I expect similar results this afternoon, as the Panthers offense is in a state of flux without Johnson.
Finally, speaking of defense, don't think the loss of Johnson, the team's leading rebounder (8 board/game), shot blocker (18 blocks), and thief (15 steals), won't be felt on an already struggling Panthers defense. Wis.- Milwaukee is allowing opponents 79 ppg on a ridiculous 51% shooting over their last 5 games, and that includes some really ugly losses on the road (100-65 at Marquette, 91-73 at Illinois-Chicago). More of the same this afternoon, as Wyoming keeps it perfect at home with a solid win and cover in this one.
Take Wyoming BIG over Wis.-Milwaukee in afternoon college hoops action.
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Saturday Picks and Writeups:
Tonight's Games...
1. 300,000♦ Penn State
2. 50,000♦ N.Y. Giants
3. 50,000♦ UAB
1. Penn State- We should be thankful the Aggies knocked off Texas in the regular seasons finale, because that win made this game that much more affordable. Guys, this one comes down to defense - The Lions got it, the Aggies don't. But handicapping college bowls is never that simple, so let me break it down for you:
The biggest problem Texas A&M faces is their own one-dimensional offense against a stout Nittany Lions front 7, led by LBs Dan Connor and Sean Lee, plus DE Maurice Evans (12.5 sacks). All you have to do is watch tape of the Lions last 3 games, where their defense allowed 18 ppg on just 72 rushing yards per contest, and you'll see exactly what I mean. No doubt McGee/Lane/Goodson make up a nasty trio, but down the stretch against ranked teams, they averaged 127 total rushing yards per game on just 3.4 yards per carry. Lions may not be ranked, but their defense is # 6 against the rush on the season.
Offensively, its been an up-and-down year for QB Anthony Morelli, but with the extra time prepare I believe he can and will deliver against a very average Aggies defense. Texas A&M posted a disgusting 21 TD to 7 INT ratio on the season, allowing 264 passing yards per contest! I know a lot of people have knocked Morelli over the course of the season (myself included), but let's recall last year's Outback Bowl, when he completed 14 of 25 passes for 197 and 1 TD. That kind of effort would almost guarantee a win here. Also, look for the RB tandem of Royster (6.1 yards per carry) and Kinlaw (5.1 yards per carry) to take a lot of pressure off the Lions passing attack.
Finally, there's no doubt Joe Paterno knows how to win bowl games, going 20-10-1 SU & 21-9-1 ATS over his career. Compare that to the Aggies interim head coach Darnell, who's 0-1 SUATS, and you've got the making of a huge coaching mismatch. Given time, Joe Pa can dissect any team, and with A&M's obvious deficiencies on defense, look for Penn State to capitalize accordingly. Lions roll!
Take Penn State comfortably over Texas A&M as your top-rated play of the day.
2. N.Y. Giants- Several factors come into play in this one, but none bigger than the fact neither team really has nothing to play for. What about the undefeated season? Well, first of all, Belichek isn't the type of coach to sacrifice a regular season record for a Super Bowl. And second, the Patriots can still win this game, get the record, and fail to cover, which is exactly what I expect will happen.
Make no mistake, as soon as Tom Brady comes out of the game (which he will) this Patriots offense will grind to a halt. Let me give you one perfect example: Do you remember when the Pats were destroying the Dolphins in Miami 42-7 in the third quarter, when backup Matt Cassell came into the game and promptly threw a pick-6 and got yanked by Belichek faster than the beads of sweat could form on his forehead?! Well, I do, and the backdoor remains wide open as long as Brady isn't on the field.
Even when he's on the field, the Giants do have one big edge, and that's their pass rush, which was posted 52 sacks this season. Granted, Belichek isn't stupid and will try to account for that, but so did a lot of other teams. If the Giants are to have any shot in this game, they'll rely on Strahan/Umenyiora/Tuck to put pressure on Brady.
Finally, while the Giants offense isn't great, they're coming off a confidence- building effort at Buffalo, where they dropped 38 points on the Bills, thanks in large part to their rushing attack of Jones and Bradshaw. Look for them to use that formula once again, slowing down the game, and forcing Brady to watch from the sideline as the clock winds down.
Bottom line, the Giants don't want to be remembered as the team that lost to the Patriots and gave them the 16-0 season. That motivation alone, plus the fact their last home game was fiasco, losing badly to the Redskins, you know the G-men will strap on their hard hats and come to play in this one. Patriots likely win, but covering the number on this contest is another story, especially if the starters are off the field for an extended time.
Take the N.Y. Giants plus the points over the Patriots in Saturday night NFL action.
3. UAB- Love this match up for the Blazers, as they've not only got the revenge angle, losing the Old Dominion last season 56-42, but also, this time around, UAB is a much better team and it'll show tonight.
Looking over both teams, its clear one has regressed (Monarchs) and one has grown (Blazers). Since last season, the once average Monarch offense has taken a step back into mediocrity, scoring just 63 ppg on 42% shooting. With only one player averaging double-figures, this Old Dominion team has no goto player.
While on the other hand, the Blazers are clearly led by Robert Vaden, who has blossomed since coming over from Indiana, averaging almost 20 ppg. Its not only Vaden, but forwards Sharpe and Huffman, who both could lead Old Dominion in scoring, that makes this UAB offense so dynamic. Granted, they won't be confused with any top-tier program yet, but they have all the tools necessary to dominate this match up.
If you think Old Dominion's seasonal stats are bad, you should see their pathetic numbers on the road, where they average just 58 ppg on 41% shooting. They'll be hard-pressed to even reach those numbers against a Blazers defense which is rock-solid at home, allowing 54 ppg on an outstanding 36% shooting (only 23% from 3-point). In the end, UAB gets its redemption and grabs the cash, returning the favor with a lopsided win and cover tonight against Old Dominion.
Take UAB comfortably over Old Dominion in this college hoops match up.
Today's Games...
1. 50,000♦ Central Florida
2. 50,000♦ Wyoming
1. Central Florida- For those of you who love trends, this play may seem a bit unusual, because everyone knows that the Knights have beaten only 1 SEC
team in school history (1-12 SU & 7-5 ATS). Well boys, make it 2 SEC teams in school history after today's Liberty Bowl and here's why:
First, if you know Central Florida football then you know star RB Kevin Smith, who's rushed for 2549 yards on 5.9 yards per carry, scoring 29 TDs! I don't care what anyone says, but even a team from a power conference like Mississippi State, will have little luck stopping him. The fact that the Bulldogs are already below average against the run can't be ignored, as they allow a whopping 159 rushing yards per game on the season!
Second, while the SEC gets most of the publicity (and deseverdly so) this Bulldogs team isn't your typical SEC team. They're defense is good, but not great, and their offense a joke, averaging 22 ppg on just 305 total yards. You'd think they would be able to score on this Knights defense at will, but the fact of the matter is Central Floridas' stop-unit has played well down the stretch, allowing 21 ppg on just 96 rushing yards over their last 3 games.
Finally, in case you didn't notice, the Knights finished the season winning 7 straight (5-2 ATS), and come into this game playing excellent football on both sides of the ball (averaging 43 ppg over their last 3). Mississippi State definately played the tougher schedule, but sleep on the Knights at your own risk. When the dust settles, Kevin Smith leads the Knights to the bowl win and cover!
Take Central Florida over Mississippi State in this afternoon's Liberty Bowl.
2. Wyoming- So many things wrong with this Wis.-Milwaukee squad its tough to decide were to start. How about the fact their two best players have been kicked off the team for separate disciplinary infractions!
Both G Smith and F Johnson were the heart and soul of this team, and losing both players doomed them to a season of mediocrity. The fact they lost Johnson a little under two weeks ago means this team is still dealing with a shift away from their best player. They were able to win and cover at home against Central Michigan without Johnson, but doing it today on the road is completely different story.
The Cowboys are a different team at home, going 4-0 (1-1 ATS) there this season. Their offense is slightly better, but what we really see is a tremendous increase in intensity on the defensive end. Wyoming allows 11 fewer points (73 to 62) and 10 fewer points in opponents field goal percentage (41% to 31%) when playing at home. I expect similar results this afternoon, as the Panthers offense is in a state of flux without Johnson.
Finally, speaking of defense, don't think the loss of Johnson, the team's leading rebounder (8 board/game), shot blocker (18 blocks), and thief (15 steals), won't be felt on an already struggling Panthers defense. Wis.- Milwaukee is allowing opponents 79 ppg on a ridiculous 51% shooting over their last 5 games, and that includes some really ugly losses on the road (100-65 at Marquette, 91-73 at Illinois-Chicago). More of the same this afternoon, as Wyoming keeps it perfect at home with a solid win and cover in this one.
Take Wyoming BIG over Wis.-Milwaukee in afternoon college hoops action.
John Ryan
John Ryan
John Ryan's College Bowl 7* GOY on PENN ST
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Penn State ? AiS shows an 86% probability that PSU will win this game by 6 or more points. PSU QB Morelli possess an extremely strong arm and with all fo the rest leading up to this game will be in fine condition. OC Galen Hall (yes, the same guy, who coached the Cowboys) will expand the offense to exploit all of the severe weaknesses in the Texas A&M defense. The Aggies rank 100th in the nation in pass defense. Their CB and safeties are not fast enough to be caught in man coverage. In playing zone, Morelli will have the option to get the ball to their best play maker Derrick Williams. He is an awesome athlete and is extremely dangerous in the open field. PSU has a very deep corp of receivers with three of them having 40+ catches on the season. These 3 are Williams, Butler, and Norwood and all of them have significant advantages in man coverage. PSU will pass to set up the run and that running game can be powerful at times ? especially late in the game. Rodney Kinlaw has emerged as a strong power back with 222 carries and a 5.3 YPR average. A&M has two monster defensive players in DT Bryant (6-5, 322) and NT Smith (6-3, 315). They can clog the space for the running game, but they lack the speed and quickness to generate any sort of pass rush against a solid PSU offensive line. In fact, most of the secondary has been hung out to dry with a marginal pass rush at times ? even in 3rd and long situations. If Morelli were to ever have his career game ? this would have to be the matchup to do it in. AiS also shows a 90% probability that PSU will score 28 or more points in this game. Note that A&M is just 12-40 ATS when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. A&M is off a 38-30 win of Texas in a huge upset and in the game before they lost at Missouri40-28, but covered as a 17 point dog. The fact that both of their last 2 games went over 60 points puts them into an 0-7 ATS role spanning the past 15 years. Take Penn State to roll big.
John Ryan
John Ryan's College Bowl 7* GOY on PENN ST
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Penn State ? AiS shows an 86% probability that PSU will win this game by 6 or more points. PSU QB Morelli possess an extremely strong arm and with all fo the rest leading up to this game will be in fine condition. OC Galen Hall (yes, the same guy, who coached the Cowboys) will expand the offense to exploit all of the severe weaknesses in the Texas A&M defense. The Aggies rank 100th in the nation in pass defense. Their CB and safeties are not fast enough to be caught in man coverage. In playing zone, Morelli will have the option to get the ball to their best play maker Derrick Williams. He is an awesome athlete and is extremely dangerous in the open field. PSU has a very deep corp of receivers with three of them having 40+ catches on the season. These 3 are Williams, Butler, and Norwood and all of them have significant advantages in man coverage. PSU will pass to set up the run and that running game can be powerful at times ? especially late in the game. Rodney Kinlaw has emerged as a strong power back with 222 carries and a 5.3 YPR average. A&M has two monster defensive players in DT Bryant (6-5, 322) and NT Smith (6-3, 315). They can clog the space for the running game, but they lack the speed and quickness to generate any sort of pass rush against a solid PSU offensive line. In fact, most of the secondary has been hung out to dry with a marginal pass rush at times ? even in 3rd and long situations. If Morelli were to ever have his career game ? this would have to be the matchup to do it in. AiS also shows a 90% probability that PSU will score 28 or more points in this game. Note that A&M is just 12-40 ATS when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. A&M is off a 38-30 win of Texas in a huge upset and in the game before they lost at Missouri40-28, but covered as a 17 point dog. The fact that both of their last 2 games went over 60 points puts them into an 0-7 ATS role spanning the past 15 years. Take Penn State to roll big.
Does anyone know how or where to go to find out how the services are doing for the bowls or who are the best?????:shrug:
CEASAR SPORTS REPORT
NFL
1*NEW ENGLAND/NY GIANTS-UNDER
NCAA FOOTBALL
2*WAKE FOREST
1*PENN ST
1*CENTRAL FLORISA
NBA
3*BOSTON CELTICS
NCAA HOOPS
2*TENNESSEE
1*MEMPHIS
NFL
1*NEW ENGLAND/NY GIANTS-UNDER
NCAA FOOTBALL
2*WAKE FOREST
1*PENN ST
1*CENTRAL FLORISA
NBA
3*BOSTON CELTICS
NCAA HOOPS
2*TENNESSEE
1*MEMPHIS
Yourwinningpicks
nhl
1-0 last night
***BEST BET****Phildaelphia Flyers (-110) OVER TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (-110): The Lightning have lost three in a row and their poor goaltending is the main culprit. Things won't get any easier against a Flyers bunch that have the offensive weaponry to score and who now have some confidence after a nice win over the Maple Leafs the other day.
***BEST BET*****New Jersey Devils (-135) OVER NEW YORK ISLANDERS: The Islanders will be without G Rick DiPietro once again and they have been playing way above their heads of late. The Devils have the stout goaltending the Isles lack with Marty Brodeur and these teams always play close, grind-it-out hockey that usually favors the team with the better play in net.
****BEST BET****ATLANTA THRASHERS (-145) OVER Boston Bruins: Atlanta has lost two in a row so they are due for a bounce back as they are a decent team that has some trouble on defense. Boston is in the same boat and this is a prime opportunity for the Thrashers to get back on track at home.
****STRONG OPINION******San Jose Sharks (-120) OVER NASHVILLE PREDATORS: You are easily getting the better team here at a nice price as the Sharks have been rolling of late and whose offene should overwhelm the conservative Preds on opposing ice.
nhl
1-0 last night
***BEST BET****Phildaelphia Flyers (-110) OVER TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (-110): The Lightning have lost three in a row and their poor goaltending is the main culprit. Things won't get any easier against a Flyers bunch that have the offensive weaponry to score and who now have some confidence after a nice win over the Maple Leafs the other day.
***BEST BET*****New Jersey Devils (-135) OVER NEW YORK ISLANDERS: The Islanders will be without G Rick DiPietro once again and they have been playing way above their heads of late. The Devils have the stout goaltending the Isles lack with Marty Brodeur and these teams always play close, grind-it-out hockey that usually favors the team with the better play in net.
****BEST BET****ATLANTA THRASHERS (-145) OVER Boston Bruins: Atlanta has lost two in a row so they are due for a bounce back as they are a decent team that has some trouble on defense. Boston is in the same boat and this is a prime opportunity for the Thrashers to get back on track at home.
****STRONG OPINION******San Jose Sharks (-120) OVER NASHVILLE PREDATORS: You are easily getting the better team here at a nice price as the Sharks have been rolling of late and whose offene should overwhelm the conservative Preds on opposing ice.
Does anyone have John Ryan's 10* NE/NYG play for tonight?
Does anyone have John Ryan's 10* NE/NYG play for tonight?
thanks in advance....
Does anyone have John Ryan's 10* NE/NYG play for tonight?
thanks in advance....
- Nov 28, 2007
- 8,587
- 18
- 0
big al :mj07: :mj07:
At 8 pm, our College Football Late Info Bowl Game of the Year is on Texas A&M plus the points over Penn State. This line has just moved to +6 points at most books, and that's triggered a system of mine that has won 88%. What we want to do is play against any bowl favorite of -6 or more points that is off exactly one loss to end its regular season, provided it gave up 35+ points in that defeat, and is now matched up against a foe off a SU win to end the season. This system won earlier this season when East Carolina upset Boise after Boise fell 39-27 to Hawaii in its final regular season game. Penn State ended the season with a 35-31 loss at Michigan State, and the Aggies upset Texas, so we'll fade the Nittany Lions here and take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
At 8 pm, our College Football Late Info Bowl Game of the Year is on Texas A&M plus the points over Penn State. This line has just moved to +6 points at most books, and that's triggered a system of mine that has won 88%. What we want to do is play against any bowl favorite of -6 or more points that is off exactly one loss to end its regular season, provided it gave up 35+ points in that defeat, and is now matched up against a foe off a SU win to end the season. This system won earlier this season when East Carolina upset Boise after Boise fell 39-27 to Hawaii in its final regular season game. Penn State ended the season with a 35-31 loss at Michigan State, and the Aggies upset Texas, so we'll fade the Nittany Lions here and take the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.