FERRINGO HOOPS
1-Unit Play. Take #721 Florida International (+19.5) over Purdue (Noon, Saturday, Dec. 29)
Purdue is just a bit spotty. Sure, they could win this one by 20. But the odds are severely against it. They have lost to Wofford and Iowa State and barely beat Lipscomb. I?m just not sure I want to lay that many points with a Boilers club that is on such a roller coaster.
6.5-Unit Play. Take #820 UNC-Wilmington (-4.5) over UNC-Greensboro (7 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
Note: This is our Game of the Week.
Here we have a great number on a intrastate rivalry game. UNC-Wilmington has some revenge for a loss last year at UNC-G and they are simply a much, much better team from a much, much better conference. Greensboro lost all five starters from last year?s team, is 0-4 ATS against teams from the CAA, and are 17-36 ATS after an ATS win. Wilmington is undefeated at home and are 23-8 ATS as a small home favorite. I think they lay a big number on the Spartans today and cash this one for us.
4.5-Unit Play. Texas Christian (-6) over Rice (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
TCU beat Rice by 27 points in November. That?s right: 27 points. Rice is an absolute horror of a basketball team: shooting 37 percent from the field and 29 percent from 3-point land. They?re awful. TCU is at least a competent basketball team, and they should cover this game with room to spare. We saw a similar situation this week with New Mexico at Hawaii as a 5-point favorite after hammering the Warriors by 29 earlier in the season. Even with all of the peripheral factors in that one the better team ? the Lobos ? still managed an easy cover. I think we have a similar situation here. Rice is 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 nonconference games and 1-7 ATS overall.
3.5-Unit Play. Take #778 Wichita State (-2) over Drake (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
I think people underestimate how much home court means in The Valley. Home teams won nealry 75 percent of all conference games through last year and I think this number is short by about four points. I've dogged WSU for most of the year but their recent play at home has been encouraging. The home team has won five of six in this series and we are backing the best player on the court (P.J. Couisnard).
3-Unit Play. Take #823 Austin Peay (-2) over Middle Tennessee State (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
I think that the Governors are a much, much better team here and I think they are more than capable of snagging a road win in this mini-rivalry. To this point, AP has won the games it should have won and lost the ones it should have lost. This is one they should win, and they will.
3-Unit Play. Take #733 Louisiana-Monroe (+20.5) over Arkansas (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
UL-M has a load of experience and are matched up against a team that lost ? at home ? to Appalachian State last week. They couldn?t cover against Wofford ? one of the weakest teams in the nation ? as a 23-point favorite this year. I don?t see them blowing out one of the Sun Belt favorites this season by 25 or 30. Arkansas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 and the SEC continues to be the most overvalued conference in the country. UL-M covered against Michigan State, hung around with Ole Miss for 30 minutes, and beat Iowa on the road. I think they can test a shaky Razorbacks team.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #781 Miami, OH (-3) over Cincinnati (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
Going to the well here. The Redhawks have played the toughest schedule in the country to this point and are still 6-3 ATS. After an absolutely dreadful performance against Kansas I think they bounce back with a strong effort in this intrastate rivalry game. Cincinnati is 2-8-1 ATS at home and Miami is 7-1 ATS versus the Big East, 11-3 ATS in their L14, and 8-2 ATS on the road.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #741 Depaul (-2.5) over Detroit (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
Short number here in a game featuring a large talent disparity. The Demons lost to Vanderbilt, but were good enough to be in that game. I think Detroit's style plays right into Depaul's strength and that we are getting a bargain on this number.
2-Unit Play. Take #731 Washington (+5) over LSU (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
Man, here we have dumb and dumber. These are two of the shakiest, most reliably awful, pathetic teams from major conferences. So why even bother with this game? Because it?s a situation where neither team should be favored. LSU barely held off Oregon State last week and the Huskies are a much better squad than the Beavers. My favorite of all of the ugly ATS numbers here is that LSU is 1-8-1 at home, 0-5 against the Pac-10, 3-18-1 on Saturdays, and 3-13 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #745 Fresno State (+21) over Stanford (5 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
I think Stanford is still a bit overrated after reacquiring the Twin Towers. Fresno State has been a decent performer this year and I just am not sure that the Cardinal will score enough to hang a 25- or 30-point beating on the Bulldogs, a squad that is used to matching up against top-notch competition.
1.5-Unit Play. Take # UC-Santa Barbara (-7) over Eastern Washington (10 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
Here we have one of the best teams on the West Coast matched up against one of the worst. The Gauchos lost to a much better EW team by one point last year. I?m thinking revenge, and I?m thinking that UCSB makes up for that poor performance at UNC last week by laying a beating down.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #739 Tennessee (+1.5) over Gonzaga (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
The number on this game is diving, and for good reason. Tennessee is an exceptional club that proved last week they can go into a hostile environment and steal a win. Gonzaga gets lax at times and while they are a very, very talented team they are not elite. I'm looking for a big, big game out of Chris Lofton today.
1-Unit Play. Take #775 Illinois State (+7) over Creighton (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
I like the Redbirds this year. They are my MVC sleeper. I think they sneak in under this number after giving the Bluejays a scare.
1-Unit Play. Take #796 Rhode Island (-9) over Georgia Southern (6 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
The Rams have been wrecking people. Time to go to the well.
1-Unit Play. Take Northern Iowa (+5.5) over Bradley (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
It looks like Daniel Ruffin either won't play or certainly may not be 100 percent because of his strained abs. Bradley isn't the same team without their leading scorer and assist man.
