BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INDIANA
Game: Michigan State vs. Indiana Game Time: 2/16/2008 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Indiana Reason: I'm laying the points with INDIANA. Many will view the Kelvin Sampson scandal as a distraction, which has helped to keep this line reasonable. I don't expect that to be the case though. In fact, something like this can often bring a team closer together. As D.J. White said after the loss to Wisconsin: "Nothing outside of us hurt our team. We were a family tonight. Tonight didn't have anything to do with anything, we just didn't win." I feel that the Hoosier players will rally around the incident and I expect them to come together as a "family" again tonight with an important victory. Despite the recent losses, the Hoosiers remain an outstanding 30-2 their last 32 home games. Conversely, the Spartans have lost back to back road games and are just 2-3 in their conference road games overall. Looking back further and we find them at just 9-16 ATS (7-18 SU) their last 25 road lined games. The Hoosiers have beaten the Spartans three straight times here, including a 73-51 blowout victory last season. I look for them to bounce back with another convincing victory.
OREGON STATE
Game: Washington vs. Oregon St. Game Time: 2/16/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Oregon St. Reason: I'm taking the points with OREGON STATE. I successfully played on Washington last week when the Huskies upset UCLA. While that was an impressive performance, the Huskies still represent the Beavers' best opportunity to earn a conference victory this season. Here's why. If the Beavers are going to earn a Pac-10 win, it's more than likely going to come at home as their road games come at UCLA and USC. The rest of the way, they'll host Oregon, Arizona and Arizona State, all of which are ahead of the Huskies in the Pac-10 and overall standings. That makes today a very important game and I expect the Beavers to respond with a massive effort. While they haven't been winning, the Beavers have been very competitive recently. They missed covering by a bucket last time out but are still 3-1 ATS their last four games. Taking somewhat of a step down in class, I look for them to improve to 12-6 ATS the last 18 games in this series and I won't be at all surprised if they pull off the "shocking" upset. *Shocker of the Week
OREGON
Game: Washington St. vs. Oregon Game Time: 2/16/2008 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Oregon Reason: I'm playing on OREGON. The Cougars won by nine when they hosted the Ducks last month. Despite that loss, the Ducks have still won 21 of the last 23 meetings. Playing on their home floor, I expect the Ducks to have their revenge this evening. Oregon has won 12 straight home games against Washington State since a 76-59 loss on Feb. 18, 1995. That includes a 64-59 win here last season, when the Ducks were listed as -2.5 point favorites. Including that result, the Cougars are just 4-9 SU/ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as road underdogs of -3 points or less. Both teams come in off double-digit victories over lesser Pac-10 opponents (Washington and Oregon State) but the Ducks have the advantage of playing their second straight home game while the Cougars will be playing their second straight on the road. With Thursday's win, the Ducks are a healthy 10-2 at home for the season, averaging more than 85 points in those games. While the Cougars do play excellent defense, they only manage 67 points per game on the road. Look for the Ducks to be able to control the tempo more effectively than they were able to do at Washington State, avenging that loss and continuing their homecourt dominance in this series.
NORTHERN IOWA
These instate rivals played a very close game at Drake on 1/26. The Bulldogs would eventually win by four points but the Panthers covered the number, improving to 12-7 ATS the last 19 series meetings. The Panthers obviously don't have nearly as good a record or ranking as the Bulldogs. However, to a certain extent, one can "throw out the records" in "rivalry" games. Additionally, the Panthers do have a few significant factors in their favor. For starters, homecourt has been huge for the Panthers and in this series overall. Despite a loss here last year, the Panthers have still won 12 of the last 13 meetings with the Bulldogs here. They're also a perfect 4-0 their last four games here, knocking off the likes of Missouri State, Illinois State, Southern Illinois and Wichita State. They'll be highly motivated to avenge both last month and last year's losses and they certainly don't want to see their instate opponents clinching the Missouri Valley Conference title on their floor, which would happen if Drake wins today and if Illinois State loses to Indiana State. The Panthers are very tough defensively. In fact, they're the only team in the conference which is allowing fewer points than the Bulldogs. Note that Northern Iowa enters the game having allowed a mere 59.4 points per game at home while Drake is allowing 64.3 on the road. (The Bulldogs have also allowed 65 or more in four straight games.) Additionally, note that the Panthers were the only conference team to hold the Bulldogs to fewer than 60 points. While the Bulldogs obviously really want to win this game, they don't absolutely "need" it and I won't be surprised if they don't react well to suffering their first loss in nearly three months. Unlike their guests, the Panthers come in off a momentum-building win. Behind another strong defensive effort, I look for them to rise to the occasion and score the upset, improving to 9-5 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. *Rivalry
GOM
NORTHWESTERN
Game: Purdue vs. Northwestern Game Time: 2/16/2008 4:00:00 PM Prediction: Northwestern Reason: I'm taking the points with NORTHWESTERN. The Boilermakers have been a great story and they're sure to be a very popular pick with the betting public today. After all, they've dominated Big-10 play while the Wildcats have been dominated. However, I feel that this will be an extremely difficult spot for the young Boilermakers. Not only are they coming off back to back huge wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State, the first time in school history that they've beaten Top 10 teams in back to back games, but they've got another huge game at Indiana on deck. Note that the Boilermakers have gone just 2-4 ATS in six lined games against teams with a losing record and just 1-6 ATS the last seven times they were favored by greater than eight points. While the Wildcats have certainly struggled in conference play, they do have the advantage of facing the Boilermakers for the first time. That's worth noting as they play a different 'style' than most teams which can cause some problems at first. The Wildcats are desperate for a conference victory and they know that an upset here today would do wonders in helping to salvage some pride. Last year's game here was decided by seven points (75-68 Purdue) and the Wildcats went 4-0 SU/ATS the previous four meetings here. I look for them to give their very best effort once again and for this game to be much closer than expected the entire way. *Contrarian Game of the Month
ARIZONA
Game: Stanford vs. Arizona Game Time: 2/16/2008 3:30:00 PM Prediction: Arizona Reason: I'm playing ARIZONA. We all know that nothing is for certain. However, I really like the Wildcats for several reasons in this game. For starters there's the obvious home-court advantage. Note that the last time the teams faced each other here, the Wildcats won by 14 points. These teams played a close game at Stanford last month. The Cardinal won by four points (56-52) but the Wildcats still managed to cover. That brought them to 4-1 ATS the last five series meetings. Stanford won last month's meeting by keeping Chase Budinger, Jarryd Bayless and the Arizona offense under control. Bayless was just 3-for-12 for nine points that night. I expect that to be a much more difficult task this afternoon. Bayless is coming off games of 39 and 33 points and he combined with Budinger and center Jordan Hill for a whopping 72 points vs. California last time out. The Wildcats scored on 15 consecutive possessions to take control down the stretch, before taking a shot-clock violation with 1.5 seconds left in the game. Feeling so confident, Hill was quoted as saying, "if we keep playing like we did tonight, there's no stopping us." For the season, the Wildcats average a healthy 76.9 points per game at home, compared to just 68 on the road. While the individual matchups are always extremely important, I also expect the "emotional state" of the two teams to play a major factor in today's outcome. As mentioned, the Wildcats are full of confidence and momentum after finishing off their win over the Golden Bears on a major high note. On the other hand, Stanford figures to be somewhat deflated. That's because the Cardinal's (overtime) loss to Arizona State snapped a 7-game winning streak and came after the Cardinal were ahead by 14 points with less than eight minutes left. That type of devastating defeat is often particularly tough to shake-off with a short turn-around between games. The Wildcats are 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times they were favored by four points or less. Most recently, listed as -2 home favorites, they defeated Washington State by a dozen. Conversely, despite a win at Washington State recently, Stanford is just 1-5 SU/ATS the last six times that it was listed as an underdog of four points or less. This game is arguably more important to Arizona. In addition to playing with "revenge" from the earlier loss, the Wildcats are further behind in the Pac-10 standings. The Wildcats have already beaten two top 10 teams at home this season, Texas A&M and Washington State. As interim coach Kevin O'Neill noted: "Our resume would really be helped with a third top-10 win..." I'm expecting a highly motivated effort from the Wildcats this afternoon as build off Thursday's win and improve to 5-1 ATS in their last six lined games after scoring 80 or more points in their previous game. *Pac 10 GOY