FERRINGO
2-Unit Play. Take #707 Kentucky (-2) over LSU (1 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 16)
This is a perfect ?Buy low, sell high? situation. LSU is coming off its biggest win of the season at Florida and their stock has never been higher. Kentucky is coming off one of the worst losses in the program?s history and has never been lower. But if we look at the numbers and look at this objectively, the Wildcats are a better team here. The Tigers are getting all kinds of credit for ?almost? beating Tennessee. Well, Kentucky DID beat Tennessee. UK has won at Auburn and at Georgia. They lost at Florida in overtime and are 7-2 ATS recently. LSU has really played two decent games. But they shot 60 percent from the field at Florida (33-for-55). What are the odds of that happening again? LSU is 3-13-1 ATS at home and are still a bad team.
2-Unit Play. Take #787 Illinois (-3.5) over Penn State (7 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 16)
We?re going to continue to fade the Nittany Lions, especially on the short number here. I had this game posted as a -7.5 or a -8.0 so I think we?re getting some value. Penn State is 1-6-1 ATS in its last nine games since losing Geary Claxton. They beat Illinois in Penn State on a night when the Illini couldn?t hit anything. That was also Illinois? last really bad loss. The Illini have played one of the toughest schedules in America and seven of their last 10 games have been against Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin, or Michigan State, with one game at Ohio State kicked in there. Those first four are the cream of the Big 10 crop and it?s acceptable for Illinois to drop those games. And in the three games against the bottom-tier of the conference Illinois won by 24 (over Minnesota), by 33 (over Northwestern), and by 18 (over Michigan). I see them muscling over the Lions today.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #845 Portland (+12) over San Diego (9 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 16)
San Diego has been smoking lately ? and now it?s time to sell high. The Toreros will likely be looking ahead to Monday?s huge matchup with Gonzaga and may overlook a team that played them tough in their last meeting. Portland lost by three points in the first meeting and the average margin of victory in this series over the past two years is just 4.3. Portland got bombed by St. Mary?s and Gonzaga, but other than that the average margin of victory in their last seven conference games is just 4.4. They hang around. And the fact that 92 percent of the betting action (over 2,600 bets) is on San Diego makes them a solid fade today.
5-Unit Play. Take #806 VCU (-8.5) over Old Dominion (8 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 16)
Note: This is our Game of the Week. The only reason that it isn't a 6-Unit Play is because there is so much action on VCU (82 percent) and that bothers me. But I love the game and love the situation and I'm not backing away just because every square and yahoo is on this one as well.
Here is my Super Square play of the day. But here?s the margin of victory of VCU?s last nine home games: 19, 23, 14, 21, 10, 2, 20, 14, and 9. That?s 8-1 in terms of topping an 8.5-point line and a 14.6 average. I know you?d think that those results wouldn?t matter because none of those games came against ODU. Well, ODU sucks. They are a young, inconsistent team. They?re coming off back-to-back emotional home wins and are now heading to face a team that?s twice as talented and extremely tough at home. I?m looking for another double-digit win out of the Rams, who want to maintain their spot atop the CAA standings. The Monarchs are 1-8 ATS at VCU and 3-13 ATS in this series overall. This might also be the worst team they've brought into this series in five years, while VCU is nothing but legit.
3-Unit Play. Take #793 Richmond (+13) over Duquesne (7 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 16)
The Dukes are coming off a monster comeback win at Dayton and have a date with Xavier on Monday. This is kind of a sandwich game and Duquesne has shown a penchant for letdowns (see: 15-point loss to St. Bonaventure). Richmond isn?t awful. They?ve hung around with some people, they?ve beat some people, and they have some athletes. They?ve also won 10 in a row in this series and covered four of five. The Dukes are 3-8 ATS at home and the Spiders are 8-2-1 ATS on the road.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #843 Michigan State (+4.5) over Indiana (9 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 16)
Would you be surprised if Michigan State won this game? Me neither, so this is too many points. Negative vibes abound around the IU program, as Kelvin Sampson is under investigation and Armond Bassett just quit the team. They lost at home against Wisconsin and now I think the Spartans will make it back-to-back home L?s by winning outright. Michigan State slept through the first half against Purdue, but bounced back to play solid in the second half. I think that carries over. Also, I don?t think that Drew Neitzel will have another terrible shooting night. MSU has some size to keep D.J. White from going off for 30, and if they can harass Eric Gordon with the patented Izzo defense I think MSU could win this one big.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #726 Bradley (-2.5) over Creighton (2 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 16)
We?re going back to the well here with Bradley. The favorite is 12-5-1 ATS in this series and I look for the Braves to keep it rolling. Creighton has dropped three straight road games while the Braves have won four in a row at home. Bradley is coming off its worst shooting night in a month and I?m looking for them to hang a big number up today in front of the home crowd. This team is a sleeper in the MVC tournament and I see them stealing another solid victory today to make it nine covers in their last 11 games.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #781 Southern Illinois (-1) over Wichita State (7 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 16)
The Salukis are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and should dominate the lowly Shockers today. Wichita State has just two wins in its last 10 games and neither was much to write home about. This number is short because SIU has been so bad on the road. However, they?ve split their last two road trips and are simply a much better team here. They?ve won three of their last five trips to Wichita and have won five of six in this series overall.
2-Unit Play. Take #717 Drake (-2.5) over Northern Iowa (2 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 16)
Why did everyone jump off the Drake bandwagon so quickly? They?ve beaten much better teams than NIU on the road this year and are still the class of the MVC. With a few rare exceptions, the better teams have taken care of business in the MVC, with small favorites covering at a respectable clip. I just think that a team that?s 22-2 and that?s covered 7 of 10 games would get more love than this.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #823 Youngstown (+11) over Valparaiso (8 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 16)
Valpo is in a free fall. The Crusaders have lost five straight games and haven?t covered in over a month. Yet, they?re getting an astounding 96 percent of the betting action on this game ? the highest single-game total on the board. We?re going against the public on this one, and backing a scrappy Penguins team that is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10.
That's it for today. Good luck.
