Drew Gordon
Tonight's Games...
1. 300,000♦ Washington
2. 50,000♦ Miami (OH)
3. 50,000♦ Boise State
1. Washington- Talk about two teams headed in opposite directions, as home wins over UCLA and Arizona clearly show the Huskies ascending, while losses in 7 of their last 9 games, including 2 straight, show the depths to which the Sun Devils have sunken. Those trends continue tonight, as the Huskies defend their house against an Arizona State team which is garbage on the road, going just 2-5 SUATS this season!
While some critics of this play may argue the Sun Devils will be out for revenge after the Huskies came to Tempe and beat them outright 72-61 a 5'-point dogs. However, I'd argue, its hard for a team that's lost 7 of their last 9 games to concentrate on getting revenge, when all they do is lose! Also, that win in Tempe gave us several reasons to like the Huskies here tonight, starting with the match ups.
Clearly the Sun Devils have no one who can guard Jon Brockman, as the bullish 6'7 forward dominated the paint and the glass in their last meeting, going for 21 points and 16 rebounds! Arizona State has only one true frontcourt threat, Jeff Pendergraph, problem is he struggled against Brockman and you better believe he'll struggle again tonight on the road. James Harden will get his points, but the fact the Huskies backcourt is playing well (Appleby 32 points 9 for 9 3-pointers against Oregon State, Overton 19 points against Arizona) is a great equalizer in this one.
Finally, if you've seen this Sun Devils offense play on the road, answer me this: How in the hell does Arizona State keep pace with Washington in this one?! Sun Devils average a meager 58 ppg on the road this season, while Huskies are up around 74 ppg on nearly 47% shooting at home... Guys, the disparity couldn't be more clear, as the Huskies can and will win this game comfortably.
Bottom line, the Huskies defend their house against a tail-spinning Sun Devils squad in this one. Brockman's edge down-low, coupled with Arizona State's inability to score on the road, makes for a solid recipe for a Washington home win and cover in this spot. Washington beat them handily in Tempe, and they'll beat them down again in Seattle tonight.
Take Washington comfortably over Arizona State as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Miami (OH)- While Valpo may have the better overall record and the home court edge, don't let those factors fool you, as the Redhawks are playing much better baketball right now, and I'll prove it:
First and foremost, the Crusaders have lost 7 of their last 10 games, going a pathetic 1-7-2 ATS over that span! We've seen them degrade on both ends of the court, allowing 70 ppg over their last 5, but only managing to score 64 ppg over that span themselves. That problem only gets amplified tonight, as the one thing the Redhawks do very well is play defense.
Miami (OH) lives and dies by their defense, and over their last 5 games they've been real impressive, allowing just 60 ppg on 39% shooting! Its their consistently solid effort on the defensive end that have made this team a solid bet on the road, going 9-6 ATS away this season. Redhawks are also 6-2 ATS over their last 8, including 4 straight covers on the road!
While Valpo has been having trouble on the offensive end, Miami (OH) has been playing some of its best offensive ball of the season, averaging 67 ppg on an excellent 48% shooting over their last 5 games! Anyone who follows Redhawks basketball knows that's a significant improvement from their season averages, and one that propels them to the win here tonight.
Bottom line, in this pick'em situation, give me the team that's playing better on both ends of the court in Miami (OH), despite the fact the Crusaders are at home. Valpo's lost 3 of their last 4 at home, and have been a miserable bet anywhere they play of late. In the end, Redhawks defense makes enough stops to get the close road win tonight.
Take Miami (OH) over Valparaiso in this college hoops match up.
3. Boise State- If you've seen this Broncos team play at home, then you know they're no pushover in Boise, going 11-3 SU (5-6 ATS) there this season. But its not just that their 11-3, but the quality of the teams they've beaten, including San Diego, BYU, and Nevada! Sorry Siena-backers, but your Saints are overmatched in this one, as the Broncos are a much better team than the Manhattan's of the MAAC this Siena team has been barely beating of late!
Seriously guys, if the Saints can barely win at the Jaspers, what makes you think they'll get it done tonight in Boise?! In fact, we've seen this Saints team fold in tough road games before, like when they got annihilated at Loyola-Maryland 85-56 back on January 24th!
Herein lies the problem for the Saints, as their defense is way too generous when they travel, allowing 78 ppg on nearly 50% shooting (43% from 3-point) away this season! Boise State is a team that relies on efficient offense more than anything else, averaging 81 ppg on 50% shooting this season! Led by their frontcourt of Larry, Nelson, and sharpshooter Tiedeman, the Broncos have the size and the shooters to take full advantage of the Saints deficiencies on defense in this one.
Bottom line, when the best team in the WAC (playing at home) faces off against one of the better teams in the MAAC, the disparity between the two leagues becomes painfully obvious tonight. Boise State will shred this Siena defense, while the Saints may stay close early, but eventually they fail to keep pace. Broncos roll late Saturday night!
