Dr. Bob
3 Star Selection
UL LAFAYETTE (-5) over Arkansas Little Rock
23-Feb-08 05:00 PM Pacific Time
UL Lafayette continues to be grossly underrated since coach Robert Lee decided in mid-December to allow red-shirting freshman Travis Bureau to play this season to help his struggling team. The Ragin Cajuns were 0-6 straight up and 0-4 ATS against Division 1 competition when Lee decided to play Bureau and UL Lafayette is 12-7 straight up and 14-4 ATS since then. Bureau is not a high scorer, but he is the team?s best defender and team chemistry is obviously better since he joined the rotation. Arkansas Little Rock started the season 9-1 straight up and covered their first 4 lined games, but the Trojans are just 7-9 straight up in their last 16 games and have covered only 4 of their last 18 lined games. ALR is coming off a big win over reeling Arkansas State on Thursday but the Trojans are 0-9 ATS following their last 9 victories and coach Steve Shields team is just 24-38-1 ATS in his career after a win, including 14-26 ATS after a conference victory (2-16 ATS recently). Lafayette, meanwhile, is 21-10-2 ATS in conference games after a conference win under coach Lee and I see no reason for their momentum to stop tonight as they try to atone for their worst performance in the last 2 months (a 63-74 loss at ALR). My ratings favor the Cajuns by 8 ? points (using only their games with Bureau playing), so we have plenty of line value to go along with the team trends. I?ll take UL Lafayette in a 3-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 2- Stars at -5 ? or -6 points.
3-Stars at -5 or less, 2-Stars at -5 1/2 or -6 points.
4 Star Selection
Wisconsin Milwaukee (+9 ?) over BRADLEY
23-Feb-08 06:00 PM Pacific Time
These are two teams that have been covering the spread on a consistent basis and both teams were underrated until earlier this morning. Now only Wisconsin-Milwaukee is underrated. Bradley had covered in 8 of 9 games since star pointguard Daniel Ruffin returned after missing 7 ? games but Ruffin was arrested this morning for domestic battery and has been suspended. Bradley became an underrated team when Ruffin returned because they were so bad in the 7 ? games he was out. Ruffin?s contributions go beyond his 14.5 points, 42% 3-point shooting and his 5.9 assists per game, as he is also the Braves best defender. Ruffin was injured on December 22nd with Bradley holding a slim lead a few minutes before half-time at home against VCU and the Braves went on to lose that game by 15 points. Bradley continued to lose with Ruffin out, going 2-6 straight up and 2-6 ATS with their only two straight up wins coming by 1 point and 2 points. During those 8 games, including the VCU game, the Braves allowed opponents to make 49.1% of their shots without Ruffin?s defensive contributions. In contrast, Bradley is 14- 6 straight up and 12-6 ATS with Ruffin while allowing only 43.3% shooting and also playing better offensively. Bradley will go back to being a bad team without Ruffin, especially with fellow starting guard Andrew Warren (13.1 ppg) out with a hand injury. Wisconsin- Milwaukee remains an underrated team and those that have been with me for the past few months know the story by now. Wisconsin- Milwaukee was plagued by a few players with bad attitudes and a lack of effort on defense, but coach Rob Jeter dismissed those players and the Phoenix have risen ever since, going 10-5 straight up and 9- 6 ATS (would be 10-5 ATS if not for that 8 point OT loss as a 6 ? point home dog to Butler in a 4-Star Best Bet last week). Milwaukee is coming off a poor performance in their most recent game, but the Phoenix are 6-0 ATS with their current lineup following a pointspread loss so I expect them to play well tonight against a now VERY overrated Bradley team. My ratings would favor Bradley by only 8 ? points in this game if Ruffin and Warren were both playing and using all of Bradley?s games for the season against Milwaukee?s games since December 19th (the first game with their current roster) would yield a fair line of Bradley by 4 points. I get a fair line of 8 ? points even if I include Milwaukee?s horrible early season games, so there is simply no way to justify a line of Bradley by 9 ? points in this game. If I only used Bradley?s 7 games in which Ruffin didn?t play (against UWM?s games with their current roster) I would actually favor the Phoenix by 3 ? points. Road teams have been 61% in 4 previous seasons in these Bracket Buster games and this looks like a great value play as Milwaukee is now the better team. I?ll take Wisconsin-Milwaukee in a 4-Star Best Bet at +9 points or more and for 3-Stars from +8 ? to +7 points (2-Stars down to +6 points).
4-Stars at +9 or more, 3-Stars from +8 1/2 to +7, 2-Stars down to +6 points.
