BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
SOUTH CAROLINA
Game: Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina Game Time: 2/9/2008 5:00:00 PM Prediction: South Carolina Reason: I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. This is a huge game for the Gamecocks. With a victory, they can take over sole possession of fourth place in the SEC's Eastern Division and put worries about falling to the cellar behind them. South Carolina brings some positive momentum into this afternoon's game. Two games ago, the Gamecocks handled Georgia here at home. They followed that up by going on the road and knocking off #24 Mississippi. That game was a full week ago though and the lengthy gap between games should help them in avoiding an emotional letdown from the big victory. In addition to playing for positioning within the conference, the Gamecocks will be playing with "revenge" as they were beaten by seven points at Vanderbilt last month. The Commodores were a perfect 15-0 at the time (16-0 after the win) but the Gamecocks gave them all they could handle. Indeed, the teams swapped the lead eight times with four ties in the second half alone. The Gamecocks also harassed Vanderbilt into 17 turnovers, 10 of those on steals. Note that South Carolina, which should have gained some confidence from playing the Commodores so tough on their home floor, covered the spread in that game and is now 13-6-1 ATS the last 20 meetings in this series. The Gamecocks also haven't forgotten last year's game here as they scored 90 points but lost in overtime. It's worth mentioning that the Gamecocks have fared well against top tier teams during the second half of the season the last few years. In fact, the win at Mississippi brought them to 27-13 ATS the last 40 times that they faced a team with a winning record after at least 15 games of the season had been played. The Commodores, who come off a road win at Georgia on Wednesday, have not fared well over the years when coming off a conference victory. Indeed, they've gone a money-burning 24-49-1 ATS in that situation the past decade. Look for them to get caught looking ahead to Kentucky and Florida, falling to 1-5 ATS the last six times they were listed as underdogs.
IOWA STATE
Game: Texas vs. Iowa State Game Time: 2/9/2008 3:30:00 PM Prediction: Iowa State Reason: I'm taking the points with IOWA STATE. The majority of the betting public will be quick to back the nationally ranked favorite here. However, I feel that this will be an extremely tough spot for the Longhorns, as they're coming off a big road win at Oklahoma and have a huge "Big Monday" showdown with Kansas on deck. That's followed by a string of other big games, including Baylor and a "revenge" game against Texas A&M. In other words, if they're ever going to look past a game, this will likely be the one. Despite the win at Oklahoma, the Longhorns are a very ordinary 3-3 ATS on the road. Additionally, note that the Longhorns are 1-3 ATS as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range and that they're also just 5-9 ATS the last 14 times they played a road game on a Saturday, including outright losses the last two times in that situation. The Cyclones, 4-0 SU in four home games on a Saturday this season, lost vs. Texas A&M in their last game here. However, they'd won nine straight here before that, including solid wins against the likes of Missouri and Oklahoma State already in 2008. They got leading scorer Wesley Johnson back in their last game and that will provide a major boost to the offense. With a game under his belt and a few more days of recovery time since then, Johnson should quickly start resembling the player that scored 20 or more points in four straight games before his injury. Even if that doesn't prove to be the case, the Cyclones are also a team that can dominate defensively. In fact, they allow just 56.8 points per game on this floor. The Cyclones hoped to finish in the top half of the Big 12 this year. In order to have any realistic shot of doing so, they need to score the upset this afternoon. The Longhorns won here in 2006. However, they're still just 2-5 at Hilton Coliseum and they've never won consecutive games here. The Cyclones have long been a profitable team when facing quality opposition, going 118-90 ATS in lined games against teams with a winning record over the past decade. That includes an impressive 75-50 ATS (60%) mark when facing teams with a winning record after a minimum of 15 games had been played. Look for them to be at their best this afternoon, improving to 6-3-1 ATS the last 10 times that they were underdogs of eight points or less. *Big 12 GOY
WISCONSIN
Game: Purdue vs. Wisconsin Game Time: 2/9/2008 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Wisconsin Reason: I'm laying the points with WISCONSIN. I wasn't surprised when the Boilermakers upset the Badgers at Purdue a couple of weeks ago. In fact, I released Purdue as my Big 10 Game of the Year. With the full support of their boisterous home fans behind them, the young Boilermakers managed a 60-56 victory. Winning at home is an entirely different matter from winning at Wisconsin though! Indeed, the Boilermakers haven't won here since Feb. 7, 1996, losing eight straight games here during that stretch. Those eight losses weren't generally close either as they came by an average of 14.4 points per game. During that time period, the Boilermakers are just 48-74-3 ATS as underdogs, including a 1-4 ATS mark as road underdogs in the +9.5 to +12 range. The Badgers are 15-10-1 ATS the last 26 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range. Overall, they've gone a profitable 83-63-5 ATS (57%) in home lined games since Purdue last beat them here. From a "SU" perspective, we find the Badgers at 104-6 at the Kohl Center under seventh-year coach Bo Ryan, including a 50-2 record in the Big Ten. Illinois is the only conference team to defeat Wisconsin on its home floor during that span. When the Badgers lost at Purdue, they didn't get their normal contribution from anyone except senior center Brian Butch. The Badgers manage more points per game at home though while the Boilermakers allow seven more per game on the road than they do at home. Getting some "payback" should be "extra important" here as the Badgers were on a 10-game winning streak prior to the loss at Purdue and that loss also represents the lone blemish on their 9-1 conference record. I expect the revenge-minded Badgers, who allow a mere 52.4 points per game on this floor, to deliver a highly focused team effort en route to a double-digit victory. *Revenge Game of the Month
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BEN BURNS
NBA
76ERS
Game: Los Angeles Clippers vs. Philadelphia 76ers Game Time: 2/9/2008 7:35:00 PM Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers Reason: I'm laying the points with PHILADELPHIA. The situation favors the 76ers here. While Philadelphia had last night off, the Clippers were busy scoring a hard-fought upset win at Toronto. In addition to the "back to back situation," they are also now playing their third game in the past four nights and their sixth different road game through the first nine nights of February. That's a pretty gruelling schedule, particularly for a team still dealing with serious injury issues. As Clippers coach Mike Dunleavy noted: "We've had a revolving door with our injuries, one to the next..." While the Clippers played hard last night, it's worth noting that they're already out of the playoff race. That makes it a little difficult when "digging deep" to find the motivation necessary to keep on fighting on road-weary legs. Note that the Clippers have just one win the last nine times that they played the second of back to back games. Most recently, they lost by 14 points at Cleveland. Despite last night's victory, the Clippers remain a poor 3-6 ATS their last nine games. Conversely, the 76ers are still in the playoff race in the East and are also playing their best right now, having recorded back to back victories and going 5-1 ATS their last six games overall. The 76ers lost by one point when the teams faced each other here on this exact day last season. However, the Clippers weren't playing the second of back to back games, they weren't yet out of the playoff race (win brought them to 25-25) and they got big contributions from both Livingston and Brand, neither whom will play this evening. Additionally, a closer look shows that the 76ers had won nine straight home series meetings before that, going a profitable 7-2 ATS. While the Clippers have lost six of seven Saturday games, the 76ers are 7-1 ATS when playing on a Saturday this season and an impressive 23-8-1 ATS their past 32. They come off a dominant 17 point win over Miami last time out, allowing only 84 points. That's worth noting as we find them at 5-2-1 ATS after allowing 85 points or less this season and 15-8-2 ATS in that situation the past few seasons. Look for the 76'ers to be both the hungrier and fresher team, avenging last year's loss and resuming their homecourt dominance in this series. *Personal Favorite
UNDER hornets/grizzlies
Game: Memphis Grizzlies vs. New Orleans Hornets Game Time: 2/9/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Hornets and Grizzlies to finish UNDER the number. Its true that these teams have played some pretty high-scoring games against each other already this season. However, the dynamics have changed for tonight's matchup and I'm expecting a much different result. I played on the Grizzlies to finish below the number yesterday. At the time I said: "The Grizzlies are going through an adjustment period right now, getting used to some new faces in the lineup along with the departure of Gasol and Swift. Consequently, they've failed to reach triple-digits in either of their two games without Gasol. Note that those two games came at home, where the Grizzlies score seven more points per game than they do on the road. Additionally, note that they came against a pair of defenses which allow an average of 103.3 (Bucks) and 103.9 (Jazz) points per game on the road." The Grizzlies would go to finish with a mere 81 points. They did play solid defense though, holding the Mavs to just 92. Not surprisingly, the final score would finish UNDER the number by more than 25 points. Playing the second of back to back road games, I expect the Grizzlies to once again have some trouble scoring points. As mentioned, they don't score nearly as many points on the road as they do at home. That's led to the UNDER going 15-6-1 in their 22 road games. Additionally, they've seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five times that they played a road game after having played the previous day. The Hornets come off a very high-scoring (132-130) game. However, that was vs. one of the best offenses in the league (Phoenix) and 40 of those points came in the two overtime sessions. Its also worth noting that the Hornets have seen the UNDER go 7-3 after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game and 11-4-1 after scoring 105 or more. They've faced four quality teams (Suns, Warriors, Kings, Jazz) their last four times out and they've given up a lot of points. They'll be happy to "step down in class" and face an offense which is struggling. I expect them to make the most of it by playing well defensively and for the final combined score to fall beneath the generous number. *Blue Chip
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BEN BURNS
HOCKEY
CALGARY
Game: Edmonton Oilers vs. Calgary Flames Game Time: 2/9/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Calgary Flames Reason: I'm laying the price with CALGARY. The Oilers "held serve" on home ice when these teams faced each other at Edmonton last Monday. Despite that result, the Flames have the better record and I feel that they're the stronger team. They'll be highly motivated to avoid getting swept by their provincial rivals and I expect an extremely focused effort. Tonight's over/under line is listed at 5o35 or 5o40. Its interesting to note that the Oilers are just 10-18 the past few seasons when playing a road game with an over/under line of five or less. During the same stretch, the Flames were a healthy 35-14 (+10.3) when playing a home game with an over/under line of five or less. At first glance this price does seem pretty steep and it's normally a bit out of my price range. However, when we consider that the Flames are 9-3 with one tie the last 13 times they were a host in this series and that they were laying anywhere from -190 up to as high as -390 in the last five of those games, today's price seems considerably more reasonable. Look for the Flames to get back on track, avenge last week's loss and earn an important two points against their most hated rivals. *Big Chalk Game of the Month
