BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
WAKE FOREST
Game: Duke vs. Wake Forest Game Time: 2/17/2008 7:30:00 PM Prediction: Wake Forest Reason: I'm taking the points with WAKE FOREST. The Blue Devils are a powerful team and have a perfect record in conference play. However, they've struggled here in recent years, losing three of their last four games at Winston-Salem, despite having been ranked in the top 10 each time. They'll catch a Demon Deacons squad which is brimming with confidence after a big win at Florida State. Note that the Demon Deacons shot a season-best 56.0 percent from the field in that game and made eight of their 13 3-pointers, starting a perfect 8-of-8 from beyond the arc. In their most game here, the Demon Deacons crushed Virginia by 16 points, improving to an impressive 17-1 their last 18 home games. The lone loss during that stretch had come in the previous game and it came by only six points. For the season, the Demon Deacons are outscoring teams by more than 13 points (75.9 to 62.6) margin at home. In addition to their strong outside shooting in the win at Florida State, Deacons were a combined 22 of 47 from 3-point range against Georgia Tech and Virginia. For the season, they've gone a profitable 10-4 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. I expect the Deacons to continue their strong homecourt play and for them to give the Blue Devils their toughest game yet in 2008.
*Main Event
WAKE FOREST
UNDER USC/UCLA
Game: UCLA vs. USC Game Time: 2/17/2008 10:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on UCLA and USC to finish UNDER the number. Last month's meeting at UCLA managed to sneak "over" the total as USC shot a whopping 61% from the field and scored 72 points. I expect a much better defensive effort from the revenge-minded Bruins in this evening's rematch. Note that the Trojans' offense is expected to be without starting guard Daniel Hackett. That's a significant loss as Hackett is a key component of the triangle-and-2 offense that gave the Bruins trouble last time. Conversely, the Bruins are likely to have Luc Richard Mbah a Moute back in the lineup. That's noteworthy as he is a solid defender who would likely guard USC freshman Davon Jefferson, who had a career-high 25 points and nine rebounds in last month's meeting. In their most recent game, the Bruins lost at Washington, managing only 61 points. That game, which was on 2/10, stayed below the number. Note that the Bruins have seen the UNDER go 9-4 the past few seasons when playing with five or six day's rest in between games. During that span, they also saw the UNDER go 5-3 when listed as a road favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. The Trojans also struggled offensively last time out, managing a mere 50 points at Washington State. Note that they've seen the UNDER go 4-1 the last five times they scored 60 points or less in their previous game. Look for tonight's final combined score to be lower than expected once again with the UNDER improving to 13-7 the last 20 times that the Trojans took the floor.
*Blue Chip
UNDER USC/UCLA
