Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 400,000♦ Colts
2. 50,000♦ Syracuse
1. Colts- As if Peyton Manning and his Colts needed more motivation! Guys, besides the fact Indianapolis has been playing in New England's shadow all year long, feeling like they accomplished nothing last season. The Colts have one hell of a payback angle in this contest, as they remember well their 23-21 loss in San Diego back on November 11th.
That game was easily the worst of Peyton Manning's seasons, tossing 6 interceptions as he struggled to bring the Colts back from an early 23-0 deficit. Manning almost did it, but a missed field goal from one of the most reliable kickers of this era, Adam Vinatieri, sealed the loss for the Indy.
There's two things you can count on to be different this afternoon. First, the Chargers are not the same team on the road. They're just 1-3 SU on the road against teams with a winning record, with the lone win coming against the Titans in overtime. Not only that, but Tomlinson is far less effective when they travel, scoring only 5 of his rushing TDs away. Also, there's the Philip Rivers factor, but we'll get to that later.
The second thing you can count on to be different is Peyton Manning. Needless to say, one of the smartest people to ever don a helmet isn't going to be beaten like that twice. The fact he gets Marvin Harrison back only makes this play that much easier, as Manning is a different QB with his full complement of weapons. As if Peyton doesn't have enough motivation... He can and will redeem himself this afternoon.
Finally, let's discuss the biggest mismatch of this contest: Philip Rivers against the Colts excellent pass defense. Rivers is capable of losing this game all by himself with turnovers and bone-headed decisions, but the fact he'll most likely be without top-target Antonio Gates is a major major problem. You know how many yards he had in their 23-21 win back in November? 104 yards and 2 picks! If not for Sproles running back two kicks, this Chargers team would've lost that game soundly thanks to Rivers! Now on the road, playing only his 2nd game ever in a dome, look for Rivers to self-destruct, costing his team the game and earning us the cash in this afternoon's AFC Semifinal!
Take the Colts BIG over the Chargers as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Syracuse- Both teams are coming off losses here, but West Virginia's play has been far less impressive. Losers of 3 of their last 4 SU and 4 of their last 5 ATS, the Mountaineers are being given way too much credit here against a solid Orange squad. Sure, they've been much better at home, but the way the Orange are playing right now, it doesn't matter.
While their loss a Cincy was disappointing, overall this Syracuse team is firing on all cylinders despite the loss of G Devendorf for the season... Proving that sometimes you can add to a team by subtracting. More than anything it opened the door for Scoop Jardine, who's more of a pass-first guard, as opposed to Devendorf who was shoot first. The proof is in the pudding, as the Orange are averaging 81 ppg on 49% shooting over their last 5 games!
West Virginia has some nice numbers at home, but problem is lately they haven't been playing well, averaging just 69 ppg on 40% shooting (29% from 3-point) over their last 5. You can't win in any system if you're going to shoot that badly, especially against an offense as strong as Syracuse. Its no surprise that West Virginia's struggles coincide with an upswing in their level of competition, as their early season stats look great, but that's not what I saw against Loiusville or Notre Dame.
Bottom line, the Mountaineers most likely win this game, but not by nearly as much as the guys in Vegas want you to believe. Seriously, what has West Virginia done to earn this kind of respect against a team that can run with anyone, anywhere, like Syracuse? In the end, its a competitive game throughout, with the winner coming late.
Take Syracuse plus the points over West Virginia in this Big East showdown.
Late Afternoon Games...
1. 50,000♦ NY Giants
2. 50,000♦ Oregon
1. NY Giants- All we've seen this Dallas team do over the last 4 weeks of the season is struggle. They went 0-4 ATS, including an outright loss to the Eagles in Dallas as 10-point favorites! Now you can blame injuries, you can blame poor coaching decisions, you can even blame Jessica Simpson, but the fact of the matter is this Cowboys team is playing like garbage right now.
The Giants meanwhile continue to impress, knocking of the Bucs in Tampa 24-14, in a game not many people gave them a chance to win. They're now 7-1 SUATS on the road, doing it with a blend of hard-nosed defense, and efficient relatively mistake-free football on offense. Unlike Dallas, they came into the playoffs playing well, and it showed in their game at Tampa Bay. The Giants lone road loss of the season was at Dallas in the season opener, and since then New York has done nothing but win on the road.
While I expect a healthy Owens and the return of Terry Glenn to bolster this Dallas offense, its going to tough sledding against a New York defense allowing just 18 ppg on the road this season. Also, you have to consider the rust factor, as an offense based on timing (like Dallas) is going to need to time to readjust after resting most of their starters in the season finale. If the Cowboys come out flat, and allow the Giants to get up early, they could lose this game outright.
Finally, let's examine their earlier matchups this season, as the Giants were in both games until late deep touchdown tosses ended their respective comebacks. Look guys, Romo threw 4 TDs in each one of those games, facing little pressure from a sack-happy Giants defense. This time around, the Giants know they need to pressure Romo, who's been known to get a little unreliable when under duress (19 interceptions).
Bottom line, the Giants are not only playing well, but doing so in hostile territory. They've got a ton of motivation in this game with the double-revenge angle, and know they can hang with Cowboys because they've done it before. Look for a focused/hungry Giants team to further expose this Cowboys team with a solid cover here. Wouldn't surprise me too much if the Giants win outright, just based on Dallas' piss-poor play of late, but we'll take the points, as their playing at home and Owens is healthy.
Take the NY Giants plus the points over the Cowboys in this afternoon's NFC Semifinal showdown.
2. Oregon- After a couple poor efforts in mid-to-late December, this Ducks team had finally turned things around with impressive wins at Arizona and against California in their last two games. The outright victory at Arizona was huge, but beating a big lumbering team like Cal, which is similar to Stanford, tells me more about today's match up.
Cal had the size, but I told you Oregon would run-and-gun their Bigs to death, and that's exactly what they did... More of the same this afternoon, as the Ducks force the Cardinal bigmen to play their style of basketball. Make no mistake, this Stanford team is loaded with frontcourt talent, but the Ducks have just the kind of offense to make that more of a detriment than a bonus.
Starting only one true forward against Cal wasn't a problem, as Leunen scored 18 points and chipped in 11 rebounds. But it was guards Hairston and Taylor that led the way, dropping in 20 points each, and dominating their match up with the Cal guards. Stanford has the same problem today, as guards Goods and Johnson are only average players. Note the Ducks are an outstanding 8-1 ATS over their last 9 games against PAC-10 opponents, proving their system works best in conference.
Finally, you tell me how this Cardinal team keeps pace with an Oregon squad that averages upwards of 91 ppg on and outstanding 53% shooting (40% from 3-point) at home this season?! Guys, in case you haven't noticed, Stanford struggles to score points on the road, averaging 66 ppg on 42% shooting. While its true their defense is far and away better than Oregon's, they'll be hard-pressed to contain this explosice Ducks offense for long... They may have been able to shut down Oregon State 3 days ago, but Oregon is a completely different story! Ducks roll at home in this one!
Take Oregon over Stanford in this afternoon PAC-10 match up.