Drew Gordon
1. 200,000♦ Traiblazers
2. 50,000♦ Rockets
3. 50,000♦ Maryland
1. Trailblazers- Okay, its time for the Blazers to get back to the business of winning. After consecutive losses, including their first home loss in 13 games to the Rockets Friday, look for the Blazers to come out firing tonight... And they got the perfect opponent to do it against - the road-weary Hawks.
First of all, beating the Blazers in the Rose Garden is no easy task. They're 17-4 SU & 15-6 ATS at home, using their brand of lockdown defense to protect their homecourt, allowing just 91 ppg on 43% shooting there this season. That's bad news for this Hawks team, which struggles mightily on the road, going 6-12 SU & 8-10 ATS away. Biggest issue for them will be scoring points, as Atlanta manages a pathetic 88 ppg on 41% shooting on the road this season!
Second, when I say the Hawks are "road-weary," I mean it. True, they beat a bad Sonics team in their last road game, but before that they lost 6 in a row away, going just 1-5 ATS over that span! They scored just 78 points at Toronto, and just 80 at the Bucks in the road game prior... Both of those defenses pail in comparison to the Blazers at the Rose Garden!
Match ups are also issue, as the younger guys (Horford, Williams) tend to disappear on the road, while PG Anthony Johnson is nothing but a glorified backup playing starter minutes. Both Aldrige and Webster are coming off sub-par efforts against the Rockets Friday, and will be looking to bounce back in this match up. Also, I give the nod to Brandon Roy over Joe Johnson, because the Hawks guard just isn't the same player on the road, averaging 16 ppg over his last 7 road games (Hawks are 1-6 SU over that span).
Finally, the Blazers have been a solid bet all season, going 19-7 ATS over their last 26 games overall, including 7-1 ATS over their last 8 as a favorite! They have the motivation coming off consecutive losses, and they have an opponent who makes a habit of getting slaughtered on the road... A perfect recipe for a solid bounce back home win and cover this Sunday!
Take the Trailblazers comfortably over the Hawks as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Rockets- Speaking of the team that just beat the Blazers at home, the Rockets are playing some damn good basketball, going 8-2 SU (6-4 ATS) over their last 10 games. Utah comes to town tonight, and you guys know how I feel about the Jazz... Great team at home, terrible team on the road. More of the same this Sunday, and I'll prove it to you.
Utah is a disgusting 12-30 ATS over their last 42 road games, burning their backers money with impunity when they travel. So what's wrong with them? Among several things, their defense falls apart on the highway, allowing 105 ppg on almost 48% shooting this season. I could understand a rough stretch on defense over a week or two, but for those to be your stats on the season is disgraceful for such a talented team.
Rockets, meanwhile, are have built their reputation on outstanding defense, especially at home, where they allow just 91 ppg on 43% shooting this season. They actually have more wins on the road, but just ask San Antonio, who lost 83-81 in defensive battle here last Saturday, how good this Rockets defense is!
The return of T-Mac is huge for this Houston team, which not surprisingly has won all 3 games since he came back from injury. We've talked all season about how this Rockets team doesn't really have a third option... Well, at least with a healthy T-Mac, they now have two rock-solid scoring threats, and can rely on their defense to do the rest.
Bottom line, say what you will about Utah's high-octane offense, but you won't see any of that tonight. Instead you'll watch a frustrated Jazz team struggle on the road once again, as the Rockets defense locks them down in this one. Rockets protect their house and grab the cash in this one!
Take the Rockets at home over the Jazz in this NBA match up.
3. Maryland- Look guys, there's no doubt the Terrapins have some questionable losses this season, but on the same token, a win at North Carolina proves that when motivated this team can hang with anyone, anywhere. Well, you better believe coach Williams will have his troops fired up for this one, just like he did last season when Maryland won and covered both meetings!
The Terrapins hit a snag in mid-December, where they lost 3 straight winnable home games, including an ugly loss to American U. in a non-lined contest. Why do I mention this? Because its those kind of losses that either implode a team or galvanize it, and by the looks of it (6-1 SU & 4-1 ATS since then), this Terrapins team is firing on all cylinders right now.
Its tough to argue against Duke's recent play, as they Blue Devils have won and covered 4 straight. While the offense has been great, the defense has been good, allowing 66 ppg on 41% shooting over their last 5 games. You might be wondering why I say that's just "good," and the reason is the Terrapins are allowing the same amount of points (66), but opponents are shooting just 34% over the same span! That disparity highlights the difference between these two teams today, as the Terrapins defense at home can and will keep this game close.
Bottom line, look for this contest to be closer than Vegas wants you to believe, with the winner coming in the waning minutes. Match ups are about even, but the Terrapins outstanding effort on the defensive end at home is the difference in this one. Coach Williams had the Blue Devils number last season, and he'll do it again (or atleast come razor close) in tonight's showdown.
Take Maryland plus the points over Duke in this Sunday night ACC match up.
