Drew Gordon Writeups
Drew Gordon Writeups
Drew Gordon
Monday's Games...
1. 200,000♦ New Mexico State
2. 50,000♦ Seton Hall
3. 50,000♦ Heat
1. New Mexico State- Several things I like in this spot about the Aggies, but let's start with the home court. They're 8-2 SU, but only 2-4 ATS there, but the stats tell a different story. The Aggies have gotten caught playing down to the level of their opponents at times (see Louisiana tech game). But have also showed that when focused, they can be trusted at home (wins and covers over Fresno State & New Mexico). So which Aggies team shows up tonight? Being that this is a key conference match up, I fully expect the Aggies to be highly focused for this one.
Second, speaking of which team will show up, there's no question Nevada has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. Take their last game for example, where they lost badly at home to Boise State 95-80 as 6-point favorites. They allowed the Broncos to shoot 54% from the field (59% from 3-point), while only managing to shoot 43%, at home no less! Its that kind of lackadiscal effort that will cost them this game, especially now that they have to take it on the road, where they allow nearly 70 ppg this season.
Match ups also favor the Aggies, as they have the size to combat the Wolfpack's frontline with 7-footer C Martin Iti and forwards McKines and the talented but troubled freshman Pope, who was just ruled eligible and grabbed 9 boards in his first game for the Aggies. As far as the backcourt, Nevada's Kemp maybe the best player on the court, but the edge goes to New Mexico State's 4 guard rotation of Hawkins, Gibson, Peete, and Young.
Bottom line, look for the Aggies to protect their house with a focused effort on the defensive end, while Hawkins and company rip apart a very suspect Wolfpack defense on the other end. Nevada has been too inconsistent this season to trust them in this spot, and they'll prove me right tonight. Long story short, New Mexico State protects its house and grabs the cash in this one!
Take New Mexico State comfortably over Nevada as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Seton Hall- I don't know what Seton Hall team oddsmakers have been watching lately, but beating South Florida and then upsetting a surging Louisville team in back-to-back home games has to count for something! Despite the fact they lost their last two road games SU, if you watched them, you saw them easily cover against Marquette and then nearly cover at Pitt. In other words, this Pirates team has been playing damn good basketball lately, and I expect they'll build off those home wins with another solid effort here tonight.
Let's talk match ups, as both teams rely on their guard-heavy rotations to get the job done. I know what your thinking, Seton Hall's leading scorer, Brian Laing, is listed as a forward, but at 6'5 he plays a lot more like a big guard. While the Friars rely on balanced scoring, the Pirates have 3 legitimate players capable of "going off" at any time, as Laing (25 points against Louisville) leads the way, but Harvey (16 ppg) and Hazell (29 points against Louisville) can both score with the best of 'em.
Defensively, both teams are slightly above average, but neither unit will be able to consistently stop the other. Seton Hall has had some issues scoring points on the road this season, but coming off a confidence-building 92-point effort against Louisville, look for the Pirates to come out focused and firing tonight.
Finally, for anyone who follows this series, you know Seton Hall has had the Friars number, going 7-3 ATS over their last 10 meetings. While Providence whipped up on the Pirates last season at home, I expect a more mature Seton Hall team to keep this game a lot closer this time around. In the end, the Pirates deliver the cash tonight at Providence.
Take Seton Hall plus the points over Providence in this Big East match up.
3. Heat- Several factors in the Heat's favor have me siding with them tonight, despite the obvious difference in overall record between these two teams. Yes, its the mighty Spurs, but in case you haven't noticed, they haven't been playing so "mighty" of late, going 10-10 SU & 7-13 ATS over their last 10 games overall. True, the Heat have been much worse, but let's dig a little deeper and you'll see my point...
Another factor to consider is fatigue, as a veteran-laden (a.k.a. old) Spurs team has proven vulnerable with no rest, going just 1-6 ATS in that spot. They're coming off a nice, but hard fought win over the Lakers yesterday, and are actually playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Tired legs don't bode well for Spurs-backers here, as the Spurs likely win, but covering is a different story.
Can't talk about this game without mentioning the injury to O'Neal... I maybe in the minority, but I firmly believe the Heat are not going to miss the "Big Diesel" that much. Fact is, if they still had Mourning, they wouldn't miss him at all. When the Heat go to a smaller, more mobile lineup, all of sudden their perimeter defense starts to work. On the offenive end, O'Neal is sad shell of his former self, and his absence only means more shots for the real superstar on their team - Dwayne Wade.
Bottom line, expect the Spurs to win this game, but their recent play and tired legs make covering in this spot extremely difficult. A smaller and more energized Heat unit give the tired Spurs a different look, helping them grab the cash in this one.
Take the Heat plus the points over the Spurs in this NBA match up.
