BURNS
1st half GOY--------------------Devils
pers fave-----------------------Wisc-GB
Roast---------------------------Oregon
TNT Blowout---------------------Heat
TNT total GOM-------------------over heat/spurs
BEN BURNS COLLEGE BASKETBALL
OREGON
Game: UCLA vs. Oregon Game Time: 1/24/2008 10:30:00 PM Prediction: Oregon Reason: I'm taking the points with OREGON. The Ducks have lost two in a row. However, both those losses came on the road. Tonight, they return home to McArthur Court, where they have won 11 straight games, including all eight this season. Note that the Ducks may get a boost from the return of forward Joevan Catron. Catron, who has returned to practice, averaged 10.8 points to go with his 7.9 rebounds (and 2.3 assists) in 12 non-conference games, before suffering an injury prior to Pac-10 play. Even if doesn't play tonight, the Ducks still boast four other players averaging double-digits in scoring. In fact, they're averaging a whopping 88.9 points per game at home! While the Ducks may get one of their top forwards back, the Bruins may be without a pair of theirs. That's because forwards Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Lorenzo Mata-Real both suffered concussions in the Bruins' recent loss vs. USC and neither practiced on Tuesday as a result. Regardless of who plays and who doesn't, we can expect an extremely fired-up crowd and I expect that to benefit Oregon. Note that UCLA star freshman Kevin Love grew up here and that his father played for Oregon. Despite staring in high-school here, Love elected to move further south. Already upset by this decision, the Oregon fans were further angered when his father (Stan Love) made disparaging remarks about the Ducks' program. Needless to say, the fans haven't forgotten and they'll be extra "hostile" this evening. Yes, the Bruins are an elite team. However, let's keep in mind that they were 14-0 when they traveled here last January. Listed as small home underdogs, the Ducks won outright, snapping the Bruins' perfect record. The Ducks are currently listed as +3.5 or +4 point underdogs. That's worth mentioning as we find them at 3-0 ATS the last three times they were listed as home underdogs of four points or less. Conversely, the Bruins are a poor 5-11 ATS the last 16 times they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Note that the Bruins are also 1-3 ATS this season when facing a team which averages 77+ points per game. I'll gladly grab all the points I can get but am expecting an outright victory by the highly motivated home underdog Ducks. *Thursday Night Roast
WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY
Game: Cleveland State vs. Wis-Green Bay Game Time: 1/24/2008 8:00:00 PM Prediction: Wis-Green Bay Reason: I'm laying the points with WISCONSIN GREEN BAY. The Phoenix have lost three in a row for the first time since 2001. However, they're still 6-1 at the Resch Center and 5-1 in games decided by fewer than eight points. I expect the recent "losing streak" to guarantee a huge effort tonight. As Wisconsin-Green Bay junior Ryan Tillema, the team's second leading scorer, told the local paper: We just lost three in a row, and that's something good teams can't do. Right now, we've got to come out and really get on a roll. Otherwise we're going to be in trouble." While the Phoenix are sure to be desperate, the Vikings may be patting themselves on the back a bit, as they come in on a winning streak, including wins over Valparaiso and Butler. Despite those victories, the Vikings remain an ugly 3-11 SU (5-8 ATS) the last 13 times they faced a team with a winning record, after 15 or more games have been played in the season, going just 9-25 SU against winning teams overall during the past three seasons. The Phoenix won all three meetings against the Vikings in 2007 with all three victories coming by double-digits. Looking back further and we find them at an impressive 17-5 SU and 14-8 ATS the last 22 series meetings. Look for a highly motivated effort from the Phoenix as they continue that series domination and improve to 5-2 ATS the last seven times they were listed as favorites of four points or less. *Personal Favorite
BEN BURNS NBA
MIAMI HEAT
Game: San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat Game Time: 1/24/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Miami Heat Reason: I'm taking the points with MIAMI. I won with the Spurs over the Lakers last night. However, coming off that victory, I expect them to struggle tonight. The defending champs are 0-3 ATS the last three times they played the second of back to back games, losing two of those games outright and winning the other by only four points, as -12 favorites. Looking back further and we find them at an ugly 4-11 ATS the last 15 times they played the second of back to back games. In addition to the back to back situation, the Spurs will be playing their third game in the past four days and fourth in the past six. Despite covering last night, the Spurs remain a poor 3-8 ATS this month and are now just 16-25 ATS in the month of January the past three seasons. Note that the Spurs are also 1-3 ATS this season when listed as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9-point range. Conversely, Miami is a healthy 7-3 ATS the last 10 times it was listed as a home underdog in the +6.5 to +9-point range. Granted, the Heat are in the midst of a major freefall. However, they've been competitive recently, with each of their last three losses coming by seven points or less. Unlike their guests, the Heat have also has the past two nights off. Not that they should need any extra motivation, but the Heat will be playing with "revenge" as they lost at San Antonio back in November. Note that Miami covered the spread in that game. Additionally, despite being listed as underdogs, the Heat hammered the Spurs 100-85 when the teams faced each other here last season. Including that victory, Miami has gone a healthy 6-2 ATS the last eight meetings here. Look for the Heat to have the fresher legs and for them to play their best game, giving the defending champs all they can handle. *TNT Blowout
OVER heat/spurs
Game: San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat Game Time: 1/24/2008 8:05:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on the Heat and Spurs to finish OVER the total. It's true that this has primarily been a low-scoring series in the past. Its also true that the Heat have seen each of their last three games fall below the number. However, two of those three final scores would have finished above tonight's generously low number. Also, note that the last three series meetings here in Miami have all produced a minimum of 185 combined points. Additionally, the Heat have seen the OVER go 14-10 the past few seasons, after having seen their previous three games stay below the total. It's also worth mentioning that Miami's previous four games had all finished above the number. In fact, their last five games have averaged a healthy 194.4 points. That's very close to their season average of 193.4 combined points per game. Note that Miami's last four games against a Western Conference opponent have all produced a minimum of 189 points and that the OVER is 11-6 in their "non-conference" games this season. The Spurs, who have seen the OVER go 15-10 the last 25 times they were listed as road favorites in the -6.5 to -9-point range, come off a 103-91 victory over the Lakers last night. That's worth mentioning as they've seen the OVER go a perfect 4-0 the last four times they played the second of back to back games. Those four games finished with final combined scores of 238, 211, 190 and 251! With no Shaq (or Mourning) in the lineup for the Heat, I'm expecting another high-scoring affair this evening. *TNT Total of the Month
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BEN BURNS NHL
NEW JERSEY
Game: Montreal Canadiens vs. New Jersey Devils Game Time: 1/24/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: New Jersey Devils Reason: I'm laying the price with NEW JERSEY. Both teams are playing well and both come off big offensive outbursts in their last game. The Devils scored seven goals en route to a 7-3 victory at Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Montreal beat up Boston by a score of 8-2. That's worth mentioning as we find the Canadiens at 7-13 (-8.6) this season after scoring four or more goals in their previous game and a money-burning 38-48 (-13.8) in that situation the past three seasons. Conversely, during the same stretch, the Devils were a highly profitable 40-21 (+15.4) after scoring four or more goals in their previous game, including a healthy 7-4 mark this season. These teams last faced each other here back on November 30th. Montreal native Martin Brodeur was very sharp and the Devils won by a score of 4-0. With the shutout victory, Brodeur improved to an extremely impressive 34-12-5 over his career vs. the Canadiens. Additionally, the Devils moved to a perfect 9-0 the last nine series meetings, outscoring the Canadiens by a 33-16 margin during that stretch. Looking back further and we find the Devils at an awesome 20-1-3 the last 24 meetings here at New Jersey. Look for Brodeur and co. to continue their domination in this series with the Canadiens falling to 8-16 the last 24 times they faced a team which defeated them in their previous meeting. *1st Half GOY
