SERVICE PLAYS FOR THURSDAY 12/13
- Thread starter GIANTS007
- Start date
Burns NFL
TEXANS (-3 or better)
Game: Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans Game Time: 12/13/2007 8:15:00 PM Prediction: Houston Texans Reason: I'm playing on HOUSTON. These teams have identical records and they've had an identical pattern in winning three of their past five games. Both teams won two in a row, then both lost two in a row. Last week, they both earned impressive victories. The Broncos beat up on the Chiefs while the Texans handled what had been a red hot Tampa Bay team. Both teams still have an outside shot at a wildcard spot, making this a "must win" game for both teams if they want to keep those slim hopes alive. I expect home field to prove the difference. The Broncos have won two straight and 12 of 20 in the thin air of Denver. However, they've lost their last two on the road and are a money-burning 2-8 ATS in 10 road games dating back to last November. Note that Cutler was 16-of-32 for 214 yards with two interceptions and a career-low rating of 45.6 in their most recent road game, a double-digit loss at Oakland. Conversely, the Texans have won two straight home games and are now 6-2 SU/ATS in eight home games dating back to last December. Sage Rosenfels comes off a 27-of-36 performance (three touchdowns) and is now 2-0 as a starter for the Texans this season. The Wildcard spot notwithstanding, this is a big game for the Texans for a couple of other reasons. For starters, Texans Coach Gary Kubiak was the Broncos' offensive coordinator for 10 years. Naturally, he'd like a strong showing against his former team. Additionally, Houston is one victory shy of matching the single-season franchise record set in 2004. Look for another solid and highly motivated team effort as the Texans tie the team record for wins and improve to 500 on the year. *Roast
TEXANS (-3 or better)
Game: Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans Game Time: 12/13/2007 8:15:00 PM Prediction: Houston Texans Reason: I'm playing on HOUSTON. These teams have identical records and they've had an identical pattern in winning three of their past five games. Both teams won two in a row, then both lost two in a row. Last week, they both earned impressive victories. The Broncos beat up on the Chiefs while the Texans handled what had been a red hot Tampa Bay team. Both teams still have an outside shot at a wildcard spot, making this a "must win" game for both teams if they want to keep those slim hopes alive. I expect home field to prove the difference. The Broncos have won two straight and 12 of 20 in the thin air of Denver. However, they've lost their last two on the road and are a money-burning 2-8 ATS in 10 road games dating back to last November. Note that Cutler was 16-of-32 for 214 yards with two interceptions and a career-low rating of 45.6 in their most recent road game, a double-digit loss at Oakland. Conversely, the Texans have won two straight home games and are now 6-2 SU/ATS in eight home games dating back to last December. Sage Rosenfels comes off a 27-of-36 performance (three touchdowns) and is now 2-0 as a starter for the Texans this season. The Wildcard spot notwithstanding, this is a big game for the Texans for a couple of other reasons. For starters, Texans Coach Gary Kubiak was the Broncos' offensive coordinator for 10 years. Naturally, he'd like a strong showing against his former team. Additionally, Houston is one victory shy of matching the single-season franchise record set in 2004. Look for another solid and highly motivated team effort as the Texans tie the team record for wins and improve to 500 on the year. *Roast
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Pointwise
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NCAAB
Rating:5 Miami-Fla 75 Mississippi St 78
added game:
Davidson 87 The Citadel 57
NBA
Rating:2 LA Lakers 105 San Antonio Spurs 95
other games:
Miami 101 Washington 91
NFL
Denver 31 Houston 24-Mentor (Shanahan) vs protege(Kubiak) meet here. Enigmatic Broncos shined last week with 453-129 RY edge in rout of horrid Chiefsand with 4 Cutler TD tosses and 156 yards for Young(9.2 ypr). Two back of Chargers, whom they meet next week. Denver:31.1 ppg last 5 weeks, but still just a 5-16 spread play of late. Texans a perfect 4-0 ATS as non-division hosts this year(87-33 pt edge). But Houston 7-18 ATS and SU win, and just 2-8 ATS off a win of at least 14 pts. Denver 27-13 ATS in the 1st of 2 RGs. Broncos barely.
Pointwise
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NCAAB
Rating:5 Miami-Fla 75 Mississippi St 78
added game:
Davidson 87 The Citadel 57
NBA
Rating:2 LA Lakers 105 San Antonio Spurs 95
other games:
Miami 101 Washington 91
NFL
Denver 31 Houston 24-Mentor (Shanahan) vs protege(Kubiak) meet here. Enigmatic Broncos shined last week with 453-129 RY edge in rout of horrid Chiefsand with 4 Cutler TD tosses and 156 yards for Young(9.2 ypr). Two back of Chargers, whom they meet next week. Denver:31.1 ppg last 5 weeks, but still just a 5-16 spread play of late. Texans a perfect 4-0 ATS as non-division hosts this year(87-33 pt edge). But Houston 7-18 ATS and SU win, and just 2-8 ATS off a win of at least 14 pts. Denver 27-13 ATS in the 1st of 2 RGs. Broncos barely.
THE SPORTS REPORTER:
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 13
RECOMMENDED
*MIAMI over WASHINGTON by 12
So the Heat just finished a grueling six game road trip that did not go very well. Shaquille
O?Neal began to complain publicly about his lack of touches ? while ignoring his own
inability to stay on the floor and Pat Riley doesn?t seem to have a good grip on his team
right now. Washington has played well since Gilbert Arenas went down with injury. After
all, is a record around .500 so surprising for this team, with or without Agent Zero? The
Wizards have lost 19 of the last 20 games played against Miami and with O?Neal?s public
gripes about seeing the ball and a national television audience watching, expect the
Heat to put forth their best effort ? especially after having been on the road for so long.
Dwyane Wade has been slowly rounding into game shape and his skills should be on full
display. MIAMI 99-87.
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 13
RECOMMENDED
*MIAMI over WASHINGTON by 12
So the Heat just finished a grueling six game road trip that did not go very well. Shaquille
O?Neal began to complain publicly about his lack of touches ? while ignoring his own
inability to stay on the floor and Pat Riley doesn?t seem to have a good grip on his team
right now. Washington has played well since Gilbert Arenas went down with injury. After
all, is a record around .500 so surprising for this team, with or without Agent Zero? The
Wizards have lost 19 of the last 20 games played against Miami and with O?Neal?s public
gripes about seeing the ball and a national television audience watching, expect the
Heat to put forth their best effort ? especially after having been on the road for so long.
Dwyane Wade has been slowly rounding into game shape and his skills should be on full
display. MIAMI 99-87.
Michael Cannon
40 Dime
BRONCOS
Take the Broncos for the road win over the Texans tonight.
Denver is in a better position health-wise for this game, and head coach Mike Shanahan should have all the answers against former backup quarterback and assistant coach Gary Kubiak.
Houston?s secondary has been decimated by injuries this season which should make Jay Cutler?s play-action passes more efficient.
The Texans are also hurting on the offensive line, quarterback and running back. Sage Rosenfels will get the start once again for Matt Schaub while Darius Walker will likely see the brunt of carries with Ron Dayne nursing a sore ankle.
This game has a bit more urgency for Denver, as they still have an outside shot at winning the AFC West and a wildcard berth. Houston has a chance at a wildcard, but they know that window of opportunity is rapidly closing with all their injuries.
I trust Shanahan more in this matchup than Kubiak, plus the Broncos defense has improved lately, forcing 13 turnovers in the last five games.
The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a straight-up win of more than 14 points and 4-1 ATS in their last five against the AFC.
Houston is in ATS slumps of 3-7 overall and 3-6 against the AFC.
Take the Broncos as they grab the road win.
5 Dime
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Lay the points with Mississippi State tonight when they host Miami.
The Hurricanes are a paper 8-0 this year. They have yet to play a quality Division-1 opponent and the line reflects that.
The Bulldogs play tough at home and I expect forward Charles Rhodes to take it to the Hurricanes bigs tonight. He can control the post when he plays with energy, as witnessed by his 47 points in the last two games.
The Hurricanes can still be undisciplined at times and if they don?t force the ball inside against the Bulldogs this game could get out of hand.
Mississippi State is a contender for the SEC Western Division title and their losses have come to ACC contender Clemson, Southern Illinois and a rock-solid Miami (OH) team.
Lay the points as Mississippi State grabs the home win and cover.
40 Dime
BRONCOS
Take the Broncos for the road win over the Texans tonight.
Denver is in a better position health-wise for this game, and head coach Mike Shanahan should have all the answers against former backup quarterback and assistant coach Gary Kubiak.
Houston?s secondary has been decimated by injuries this season which should make Jay Cutler?s play-action passes more efficient.
The Texans are also hurting on the offensive line, quarterback and running back. Sage Rosenfels will get the start once again for Matt Schaub while Darius Walker will likely see the brunt of carries with Ron Dayne nursing a sore ankle.
This game has a bit more urgency for Denver, as they still have an outside shot at winning the AFC West and a wildcard berth. Houston has a chance at a wildcard, but they know that window of opportunity is rapidly closing with all their injuries.
I trust Shanahan more in this matchup than Kubiak, plus the Broncos defense has improved lately, forcing 13 turnovers in the last five games.
The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a straight-up win of more than 14 points and 4-1 ATS in their last five against the AFC.
Houston is in ATS slumps of 3-7 overall and 3-6 against the AFC.
Take the Broncos as they grab the road win.
5 Dime
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Lay the points with Mississippi State tonight when they host Miami.
The Hurricanes are a paper 8-0 this year. They have yet to play a quality Division-1 opponent and the line reflects that.
The Bulldogs play tough at home and I expect forward Charles Rhodes to take it to the Hurricanes bigs tonight. He can control the post when he plays with energy, as witnessed by his 47 points in the last two games.
The Hurricanes can still be undisciplined at times and if they don?t force the ball inside against the Bulldogs this game could get out of hand.
Mississippi State is a contender for the SEC Western Division title and their losses have come to ACC contender Clemson, Southern Illinois and a rock-solid Miami (OH) team.
Lay the points as Mississippi State grabs the home win and cover.
NHL
DEVILS
Game: New Jersey Devils vs. Boston Bruins Game Time: 12/13/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: New Jersey Devils Reason: I'm playing on NEW JERSEY. The Bruins beat me yesterday but I'm going to play against them again here. This will be the fifth time that the Bruins will have played the second of back to back games, since the start of November. They went 0-4 in the previous four games, scoring just one goal in three of the losses and two in the other. The Devils aready defeated the Bruins 4-3 at New Jersey last week. That victory brought them to 7-2 the last nine series meetings. While the Bruins would love to avenge that loss, they're an awful 30-65 (-30.4) the last 95 times that they faced a team which defeated them in their previous game. The Bruins are also still likely without their top goalie and are playing their first game back off a 3-game road trip. Look for the Devils, who haven't played since Monday, to improve to 3-1 when playing with two day's rest in between games and 8-2 the last 10 series meetings.
COLLEGE
DAVIDSON (-32 or better)
Game: The CITADEL vs. Davidson Game Time: 12/13/2007 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Davidson Reason: I'm laying the points with DAVIDSON. At first glance, this number seems high. However, a closer look shows that there is a MAJOR talent difference between these teams and I believe the line is actually very reasonable. In fact, it would be higher if Davidson didn't enter with a 3-5 record. Keep in mind that three of those losses came against the likes of Duke, North Carolina and UCLA and that they were all close games which the Wildcats covered. The Wildcats, who went 17-1 in conference play last season, view themselves as a Top 25 team. They are very well balanced and have a true star in Stephen Curry, who continues to establish himself as one of the top young scorers in the nation, averaging 24.6 ppg through eight contests. Curry, the son of former NBA player Dell Curry, already has 37 3-pointers and is shooting 43.0 percent from beyond the arc. Note that Curry has scored in double figures in 35 consecutive contests and 41 of 42 during his college career. While Curry grabs all the headlines, guard Jason Richards has quietly established himself as one of the top playmakers in the country. In fact, Richards ranks among the top passers in the country, averaging 9.1 assists per game. The Wildcats are extremely well-coached and after three straight losses, they enter this game with a chip on their shoulder. They've only played two true home games and they won those games by an average score of 109-53! Meanwhile, the only time that the Bulldogs played a road game against an opponent of Davidson's caliber (11/12 at South Carolina) they were blown out by 61 points, losing 103-42. Including that result, the Bulldogs are a money-burning 17-31 ATS as underdogs since 2005. While they've shown some heart thus far, the Bulldogs are very young and have only one senior on the squad. Looking back further and we find them at 44-70-2 ATS as underdogs since 1997. Those numbers are almost mirror opposites of what the Wildcats have done when favored. Indeed, Davidson has gone a profitable 30-18-1 ATS as favorites since 2005 and 71-48-3 ATS in that role over the past decade. That includes an impressive 16-6 ATS mark when listed as home favorites of greater than 12.5 points. The Wildcats won and covered both series meetings last season and they're 6-3 ATS (9-0 SU) the last nine. Look for them to jump on top immediately and cruise to a one-sided blowout win.
NBA
MIAMI
Game: Washington Wizards vs. Miami Heat Game Time: 12/13/2007 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Miami Heat Reason: I'm laying the points with MIAMI. The Heat have really struggled this season. However, they finally turned things around by closing out their road trip with back to back impressive victories. They're back home now and they've had a couple of days to recover from the long trip. Looking back to last season and we find that the Heat also began December by playing a road trip on the West Coast. They returned from that trip with a poor 3-6 record at home for the season. Listed as -8.5 point favorites in their "return game," they crushed a Raptors team by a score of 99-77. Despite being bothered by a tooth-ache, Dwayne Wade tied his season high with 37 points en route to the easy cover. That night, the Heat faced a Raptors team which was without its best player, Chris Bosh. Tonight, laying a much smaller number, the Heat return with a 2-6 home record to face a Washington team still without its best player, Gilbert Arenas. While the Wizards have been playing decently without Arenas, they never tend to fare too well vs. the Heat. Indeed, the Wizards are a horrific 1-19 SU and 5-13-2 ATS the last 20 series meetings. Wade, who had 64 points in the final two games of the trip, and who always tends to fare well vs. the Wizards, had this to say: "Going out West really helped us off the court as well as on the court. It helped us get to know each other a little more, helped us as men respect each other a little more, respect what each other does..." Heat coach Pat Riley also feels the team coming around: "There seems to be a little lighter air to the team. I think they've gotten through it and gotten closer together." Exactly one year ago, the Heat returned from their road trip and closed out December by going 5-2 SU/ATS in their seven home games. With Jason Williams expected to return and behind another big game from Wade, look for the Heat to duplicate last year's result by returning home with a win and cover. *TNT GOW
Mighty ! Quinn
Lost last night wasnt even close
2-1 this week
4-15 last 19
Texans (pickem)
Lost last night wasnt even close
2-1 this week
4-15 last 19
Texans (pickem)
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Tony Stoffo's
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Florida at St. Louis
Time: 8:35 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: St. Louis (+ML-150)
Line Source: HILTON
Posted on: December 13, 2007 @ 10:47:17 AM EST
NHL Game of the Month Florida at St Louis One of my top rated situational trends in the NHL goes here favoring the Blues for tonight. Play On - Home Favorites of -200 or less against the money line (St Louis) - after a close loss by 1 goal in their previous game against opponent after losing their previous game in overtime. This powerful trend as gone 39-5 over the past 5 seasons hitting at an incredible 89% Plus is a perfect 3-0 already this season. Plus add in the fact that the Panthers are 13-42 in road games during the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons makes St Louis my highly recommended play for tonight.
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Florida at St. Louis
Time: 8:35 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: St. Louis (+ML-150)
Line Source: HILTON
Posted on: December 13, 2007 @ 10:47:17 AM EST
NHL Game of the Month Florida at St Louis One of my top rated situational trends in the NHL goes here favoring the Blues for tonight. Play On - Home Favorites of -200 or less against the money line (St Louis) - after a close loss by 1 goal in their previous game against opponent after losing their previous game in overtime. This powerful trend as gone 39-5 over the past 5 seasons hitting at an incredible 89% Plus is a perfect 3-0 already this season. Plus add in the fact that the Panthers are 13-42 in road games during the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons makes St Louis my highly recommended play for tonight.
Matt Rivers
75,000* OUTRIGHT OR BURIAL Plus Bonus Lock
Your winners here are on:
1. 75,000♦ Mississippi State
2. 50,000♦ Broncos
1. Miami is not a bad team as evidenced by the perfect 8-0 record but they are not as talented as in years' past with Hurta and Hite and others and should not be able to go into a tough environment in Starkville and be able to compete with one of the SEC's best in the Bulldogs. Jamont Gordon is a star and the home squad is going to create some havoc this season as they brought back a ton from last season's team which did a little better than expected. Charles Rhodes is half a beast and Ben Hansbrough (Tyler's brother) and Barry Stewart are quality players as well.
Jack McClinton and Anthony King can play with anybody but this spot on the road is extremely difficult and a tough tough matchup for Miami. McClinton, by the way, has been awful scoring only 8 points in each of those last three games while shooting a terrible 9-for-29.
The home court advantage is so monstrous in the college game and this is going to be another example of how decent enough teams, like a Miami, can just fold and get pounded in a hostile environment.
2. This is far from the lock of my life as the Broncos are extremely schizo this season and the Texans are no longer a bottomfeeder of a team but in this must win situation I'll take my chances with Jay Cutler over Sage Rosenfels, even on the road. The Texans are not bad at all but are probably once again without Matt Schaub and should be starting the slow Darius Walker at running back with scares me very little.
Andre Johnson is a superstar but the Broncos have some talent of their own as Selvin Young and Brandon Marshall are becoming very solid players and in the end I see the good version of Mike Shanahan's showing up here as they pretty much have to win out to have any chance at all of making the playoffs.
75,000* OUTRIGHT OR BURIAL Plus Bonus Lock
Your winners here are on:
1. 75,000♦ Mississippi State
2. 50,000♦ Broncos
1. Miami is not a bad team as evidenced by the perfect 8-0 record but they are not as talented as in years' past with Hurta and Hite and others and should not be able to go into a tough environment in Starkville and be able to compete with one of the SEC's best in the Bulldogs. Jamont Gordon is a star and the home squad is going to create some havoc this season as they brought back a ton from last season's team which did a little better than expected. Charles Rhodes is half a beast and Ben Hansbrough (Tyler's brother) and Barry Stewart are quality players as well.
Jack McClinton and Anthony King can play with anybody but this spot on the road is extremely difficult and a tough tough matchup for Miami. McClinton, by the way, has been awful scoring only 8 points in each of those last three games while shooting a terrible 9-for-29.
The home court advantage is so monstrous in the college game and this is going to be another example of how decent enough teams, like a Miami, can just fold and get pounded in a hostile environment.
2. This is far from the lock of my life as the Broncos are extremely schizo this season and the Texans are no longer a bottomfeeder of a team but in this must win situation I'll take my chances with Jay Cutler over Sage Rosenfels, even on the road. The Texans are not bad at all but are probably once again without Matt Schaub and should be starting the slow Darius Walker at running back with scares me very little.
Andre Johnson is a superstar but the Broncos have some talent of their own as Selvin Young and Brandon Marshall are becoming very solid players and in the end I see the good version of Mike Shanahan's showing up here as they pretty much have to win out to have any chance at all of making the playoffs.
MILE LINEBACK
Selection 1: NFL Football (251)
4* Denver Broncos 13-December-2007 5:15 PM PSTSpread -1 for Game -110
Denver playing much better than recent W/L results. Talented QB Cutler is evolving/maturing as an NFL quarterback, and as a result, HC Shanahan is starting to open up the playbook for his franchise QB. Hence, more points are being scored and strongly believe Denver can outscore their opponent on Thursday night. The Broncos are weak against the run (Houston not much better). However, Houston are not a great running team (#24) with their top two running backs injured. Ahmad Green is on IR and Ron Dayne is battling a bum ankle. Backup QB Rosenfels is 2-0 for the Texans. However, the journeyman QB will be facing one of the best secondary?s in the league on ThNF. Denver match-up well in all passing situations and Champ Bailey is one the best shut down corners in the league and should be able to take Rosenfels? favorite target Andre Johnson out of his game (at least slow him down significantly). Denver hold fundamental match-up advantages and are much more capable of taking Houston out of their game than vice versa. Like Shanahan in this situation (more or less, has nothing to lose), basically playing for next season, and should open up playbook for talented Cutler.
Plus Denver starting to run the ball (#6). Houston very fortunate to win last week with Tampa starting QB Garcia a last minute scratch (McCowen played like crap). In addition, Texans out-gained again but key turnover deep in Bucs territoryand kick-off return for TD propelled Houston to win. They won?t be so luckytonight on national TV. Play on DENVER
Selection 1: NFL Football (251)
4* Denver Broncos 13-December-2007 5:15 PM PSTSpread -1 for Game -110
Denver playing much better than recent W/L results. Talented QB Cutler is evolving/maturing as an NFL quarterback, and as a result, HC Shanahan is starting to open up the playbook for his franchise QB. Hence, more points are being scored and strongly believe Denver can outscore their opponent on Thursday night. The Broncos are weak against the run (Houston not much better). However, Houston are not a great running team (#24) with their top two running backs injured. Ahmad Green is on IR and Ron Dayne is battling a bum ankle. Backup QB Rosenfels is 2-0 for the Texans. However, the journeyman QB will be facing one of the best secondary?s in the league on ThNF. Denver match-up well in all passing situations and Champ Bailey is one the best shut down corners in the league and should be able to take Rosenfels? favorite target Andre Johnson out of his game (at least slow him down significantly). Denver hold fundamental match-up advantages and are much more capable of taking Houston out of their game than vice versa. Like Shanahan in this situation (more or less, has nothing to lose), basically playing for next season, and should open up playbook for talented Cutler.
Plus Denver starting to run the ball (#6). Houston very fortunate to win last week with Tampa starting QB Garcia a last minute scratch (McCowen played like crap). In addition, Texans out-gained again but key turnover deep in Bucs territoryand kick-off return for TD propelled Houston to win. They won?t be so luckytonight on national TV. Play on DENVER
Iceman, 30 days 22-17.
Pick on PITTSBURGH. Although they got crushed at Philadelphia on Tuesday, the Penguins are still fairly pleased with the results of their recent road trip. Indeed, they swept Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver in Sidney Crosby's Western Canada debut. The Penguins have been hot lately and Ottawa also played last night and had to travel. Lets play the Pittsburgh Penguins
Pick on PITTSBURGH. Although they got crushed at Philadelphia on Tuesday, the Penguins are still fairly pleased with the results of their recent road trip. Indeed, they swept Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver in Sidney Crosby's Western Canada debut. The Penguins have been hot lately and Ottawa also played last night and had to travel. Lets play the Pittsburgh Penguins
Jeff Benton
Thursday's NFL two-fer
15 Dime: TEXANS (plus the points vs. Broncos)
10 Dime: Texans-Broncos OVER the total
NOTE: Bet the total early, as it always goes up on these singular NFL prime-time games!
Texans
I absolutely cannot comprehend the line movement in this game. Why is all the money coming in on the Broncos? Because they?re still ?in the playoff hunt?? Please. Denver has no shot at the last AFC wild-card spot and would need a complete collapse by the Chargers to overtake San Diego in the AFC West. And besides, like the Broncos, the Texans are ?mathematically alive? in the playoff chase, too.
So I don?t buy into the whole playoff motivation angle. Nor do I buy into the Broncos having turned the corner because they?re coming off their most dominating performance of the season, last week?s 41-7 home win over Kansas City. That?s because the Chiefs are among the fifth worst teams in the NFL right now. And prior to that win, Denver lost back-to-back road games to the Raiders (34-20) and Bears (34-37), two teams with a combined record of 9-17.
In fact, the Broncos are just 4-7 in their last 11 games, with two of the wins coming against the Chiefs and another being a home victory over the freefalling Titans. Also, if you take away a road win at Kansas City (a joke) and a last-second 15-14 win at Buffalo in Week 1 ? when kicker Jason Elam sprinted onto the field and barely got the kick off before time expired ? and here?s what the Broncos have done on the road: 38-20 loss at the Colts, 44-7 loss at Detroit, 37-34 loss at Chicago, 34-20 loss at the Raiders. In their six road games, the Broncos are giving up ? are you ready for this? ? 29.7 points per game!
So again, I ask you, why all the money on Denver? It?s not like Houston is terrible. In fact, the Texans have the same 6-7 record that the Broncos have. Also, they?re 4-2 at home following last week?s 28-14 win over playoff-bound Tampa Bay, which was 8-4 going into last week?s game. And if not for a last-second 38-36 loss to the division-rival Titans, the Texans would be riding a four-game home winning streak right now. (Besides the loss to the Titans, Houston?s only other home setback was a 30-24 defeat to the Colts!).
Also, while the Broncos are surrendering nearly 30 points per game on the road, Houston is giving up just 19 points per game at home, holding the Bucs (14) and Saints (10) to a total of 24 points in the last two home contests.
And I haven?t even mentioned the fact that this game pits former Broncos offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, now in his second year at the helm of the Texans, against former mentor Mike Shanahan. Think Kubiak isn?t aware of his former boss?s tendencies?
Bottom line: This is as big a game as the Texans have ever played, as a win here would get them to .500 this late in a season for the first time in franchise history. Trust me: They?ll be ready to play, and they?ll expose the Broncos like the fraud that they are. Play Houston.
Broncos-Texans OVER the total
I know I just sung the praises of Houston?s defense, and it has been solid for the most part at home. But the Broncos, who have averaged 31.2 points in their last five games, are going to score in this game. Thing is, they?re going to give up a ton of points, too. Denver has surrendered 34 points or more five times in the last 10 weeks, including four times in their last five road games!
Also, check out these trends: The over is 11-2 in Broncos games this year, including 6-0 in the last six. The combined point totals in those six games: 48, 54, 71, 54, 38 and 51. Meanwhle, the Texans have topped the total in consecutive games, and the over is 8-1 in Houston?s last nine December contests and 8-2-1 in its last 11 as an underdog (and I fully expect the Texans to go off as an underdog tonight).
Finally, both teams enter this contest with red-hot quarterbacks in Denver?s Jay Cutler and Houston?s Sage Rosenfels, both of whom have quarterback ratings in the 90s.
Throw in the fact that this game is being played in a climate-controlled
Thursday's NFL two-fer
15 Dime: TEXANS (plus the points vs. Broncos)
10 Dime: Texans-Broncos OVER the total
NOTE: Bet the total early, as it always goes up on these singular NFL prime-time games!
Texans
I absolutely cannot comprehend the line movement in this game. Why is all the money coming in on the Broncos? Because they?re still ?in the playoff hunt?? Please. Denver has no shot at the last AFC wild-card spot and would need a complete collapse by the Chargers to overtake San Diego in the AFC West. And besides, like the Broncos, the Texans are ?mathematically alive? in the playoff chase, too.
So I don?t buy into the whole playoff motivation angle. Nor do I buy into the Broncos having turned the corner because they?re coming off their most dominating performance of the season, last week?s 41-7 home win over Kansas City. That?s because the Chiefs are among the fifth worst teams in the NFL right now. And prior to that win, Denver lost back-to-back road games to the Raiders (34-20) and Bears (34-37), two teams with a combined record of 9-17.
In fact, the Broncos are just 4-7 in their last 11 games, with two of the wins coming against the Chiefs and another being a home victory over the freefalling Titans. Also, if you take away a road win at Kansas City (a joke) and a last-second 15-14 win at Buffalo in Week 1 ? when kicker Jason Elam sprinted onto the field and barely got the kick off before time expired ? and here?s what the Broncos have done on the road: 38-20 loss at the Colts, 44-7 loss at Detroit, 37-34 loss at Chicago, 34-20 loss at the Raiders. In their six road games, the Broncos are giving up ? are you ready for this? ? 29.7 points per game!
So again, I ask you, why all the money on Denver? It?s not like Houston is terrible. In fact, the Texans have the same 6-7 record that the Broncos have. Also, they?re 4-2 at home following last week?s 28-14 win over playoff-bound Tampa Bay, which was 8-4 going into last week?s game. And if not for a last-second 38-36 loss to the division-rival Titans, the Texans would be riding a four-game home winning streak right now. (Besides the loss to the Titans, Houston?s only other home setback was a 30-24 defeat to the Colts!).
Also, while the Broncos are surrendering nearly 30 points per game on the road, Houston is giving up just 19 points per game at home, holding the Bucs (14) and Saints (10) to a total of 24 points in the last two home contests.
And I haven?t even mentioned the fact that this game pits former Broncos offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, now in his second year at the helm of the Texans, against former mentor Mike Shanahan. Think Kubiak isn?t aware of his former boss?s tendencies?
Bottom line: This is as big a game as the Texans have ever played, as a win here would get them to .500 this late in a season for the first time in franchise history. Trust me: They?ll be ready to play, and they?ll expose the Broncos like the fraud that they are. Play Houston.
Broncos-Texans OVER the total
I know I just sung the praises of Houston?s defense, and it has been solid for the most part at home. But the Broncos, who have averaged 31.2 points in their last five games, are going to score in this game. Thing is, they?re going to give up a ton of points, too. Denver has surrendered 34 points or more five times in the last 10 weeks, including four times in their last five road games!
Also, check out these trends: The over is 11-2 in Broncos games this year, including 6-0 in the last six. The combined point totals in those six games: 48, 54, 71, 54, 38 and 51. Meanwhle, the Texans have topped the total in consecutive games, and the over is 8-1 in Houston?s last nine December contests and 8-2-1 in its last 11 as an underdog (and I fully expect the Texans to go off as an underdog tonight).
Finally, both teams enter this contest with red-hot quarterbacks in Denver?s Jay Cutler and Houston?s Sage Rosenfels, both of whom have quarterback ratings in the 90s.
Throw in the fact that this game is being played in a climate-controlled
John Ryan's 5* Monster Play
Game: Denver Broncos at Houston Texans Dec 13 2007 8:15PM
Prediction: Houston Texans
Reason: Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Houston Texans ? AiS shows an 83% probability that Houston will win this game. Simplistically, Houston has a fantastic passing offense and a horrible passing defense; both of which work against Denver. Seems Denver cannot exploit weak passing defenses nor can they defend against strong passing offense. Denver is 0-7 ATS versus awful passing defenses that are allowing a completion percentage of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons. Also, Denver is 0-7 ATS versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better over the last 2 seasons. Denver is coming off a strong win 41-7 at home over KC. In that game they gained well over 6.0 YPP and this puts them into a terrible spot for this game. Note that Denver is 0-7 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game this season. A big factor in this game is that I see Houston stopping the Denver running game by playing a Tampa-2 scheme. Linebackers Morlon Greenwood, DeMeco Ryans, and Danny Clark will be able to show run support at the LOS and drop back into under neath pass coverage. Denver QB Cutler can be easily confused by this simply that he loves to take chances. By seeing run stop he can believe that the middle of the field will be open, but with the Tampa-2 the MLB will drop into the area usually open with a conventional cover-2 scheme. Plus, and most important, the LB corp has the athleticism and skill to stop the run without gimmicks. Take Houston
Game: Denver Broncos at Houston Texans Dec 13 2007 8:15PM
Prediction: Houston Texans
Reason: Ai Simulator 5* graded play on Houston Texans ? AiS shows an 83% probability that Houston will win this game. Simplistically, Houston has a fantastic passing offense and a horrible passing defense; both of which work against Denver. Seems Denver cannot exploit weak passing defenses nor can they defend against strong passing offense. Denver is 0-7 ATS versus awful passing defenses that are allowing a completion percentage of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons. Also, Denver is 0-7 ATS versus excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better over the last 2 seasons. Denver is coming off a strong win 41-7 at home over KC. In that game they gained well over 6.0 YPP and this puts them into a terrible spot for this game. Note that Denver is 0-7 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game this season. A big factor in this game is that I see Houston stopping the Denver running game by playing a Tampa-2 scheme. Linebackers Morlon Greenwood, DeMeco Ryans, and Danny Clark will be able to show run support at the LOS and drop back into under neath pass coverage. Denver QB Cutler can be easily confused by this simply that he loves to take chances. By seeing run stop he can believe that the middle of the field will be open, but with the Tampa-2 the MLB will drop into the area usually open with a conventional cover-2 scheme. Plus, and most important, the LB corp has the athleticism and skill to stop the run without gimmicks. Take Houston
