Drew Gordon
1. 300,000♦ Texans
2. 50,000♦ Miami-Florida
1. Texans- After watching the Broncos dominate the Chiefs 41-7 last Sunday in Denver, I can understand why the public seems to love them tonight in Houston, but like most cases where the public is in love with a team... They're dead-wrong and here's why:
For all of those people backing Denver tonight, did you forget to watch the Broncos on the road this season?! Losses at Oakland, Chicago, Detroit, and Indy come to mind! In fact, did you know Denver has covered only one road game this season, at the sorry-ass Chiefs! Guys, if you saw the Broncos last road game, where they got crushed by the Raiders 34-20, how can you possibly side with Denver in this game?!
The teacher versus pupil angle is being way overplayed in this one, but there is some credence to the fact both teams run similar offenses, so you'd expect them to be familiar with eachothers systems. Difference is the Texans defense is excellent at home, allowing just 19 ppg, while the Denver defense falls asleep on the road, allowing a whopping 29 ppg when they travel!
Finally, while a lot is being made of Sage Rosenfels starting for the Texans, let's not forget, the guy is 2-0 in place of Schaub, and is coming off an excellent game versus a rock-solid Bucs defense. He not only completed 75% of his passes, but threw for 3 TDs and no picks, raising his overall QB rating for the season to 91.3 (4 points higher than Schaub)... So don't tell me the guy can't get the job done tonight, because he's proven more than adequate.
Bottom line, while I expect a close game here, the Broncos are garbage on the road, and eventually their lack of focus defensively costs them this game. Cutler is still vulnerable in hostile environments (see Raiders game - 50% completion, 0 TDs 2 picks) and with both teams on the outside looking in, the pressure is too much for Denver's young gun in Houston tonight.
Take the Texans plus the points over the Broncos as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Miami-Florida- Got to love the Hurricanes in this spot for several reasons, but none bigger than the fact they're outstanding basketball right now, sitting at 8-0 SU and 5-0 ATS, make no mistake, the Bulldogs are in for a battle tonight.
Guard-heavy Mississippi State is at a disadavantage against a 'Canes team built around tough perimeter defense, allowing 58 ppg on just 36% shooting (27% from 3-point) this season. Jamont Gordon is clearly the Bulldogs best option, but with Miami keying on him, I'm not convinced this Bulldogs team has another consistent threat.
Down-low the edge clearly goes the Hurricanes, as senior C King and forwards Asbubry and Collins are all rock-solid players. Whereas the Bulldogs rely on F Charles Rogers for most their frontline scoring, but have very little after him. Rogers will have his hands full all game, which eventually will wear him down.
Finally, one edge that cannot be ignored is Miami's depth compared to a very shallow Mississippi State bench. Bulldogs rotate about 7 players, but that includes several players averaging under 5 ppg... In other words, after their top-4 the drop-off in talent in significant. Look for Miami to take advantage when the Bulldogs go to their bench.
Bottom line, while Mississippi State may be at home, this Hurricanes team is not going down without a fight. Miami already went to Providence and got the 64-58 win, and although a tougher match up, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they pull out the upset tonight in Starkville.
Take Miami-Florida plus the points over Mississippi State in this college hoops match up.