Nite Owl Sports
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Clemson Tigers - Thursday February 14, 2008 9:00 pm
Pick: 5 units (Play of the Day) ATS: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +9 (-110)
Most of our customers and many regular readers of the Top Ten newsletter probably remember our free newsletter pick on Charlotte as a 15 point dog against Clemson, in Tigers? first game after their devastating last second OT loss to North Carolina, a game which Charlotte not only covered easily but won SU by 10 points against an emotionally ?shot? Clemson team. Well, guess what? Tonight we have virtually the same situation, with Clemson again coming off of a second heart-breaking, gut-wrenching OT loss to this same North Carolina team Sunday night on national TV, in which they had the lead by 11 at the half and were ahead for the entire second half before finally being ?caught? by the Heels at the end of ?regulation,? despite having the final possession but being unable to get off a decent shot. Tigers then blew a chance to win it in the first OT, due primarily to poor FT shooting (a Shaq-like 1-7 from the ?charity stripe? for the game), and again being unable to score on their final possession of that first OT due to poor shot selection. As mentioned in Nite Owl?s most recent Top Ten article (in Monday?s newsletter), our biggest play of that day was taking Carolina at ? 7.5 points on the second half line, which, when combined with their 11 point HT deficit, resulted in an adjusted game line of +3.5 for a team that was 52-0 at home vs its opponent (but unfortunately for our Top Ten customers, that was only an ?unofficial? play, as the Top Ten site is not set up for releasing half time picks.
But now let?s focus on this game, between Clemson and long time bitter rival, Ga Tech, being played at Littlejohn Coliseum in Clemson, So Carolina. As was the case with Charlotte, our pick on Ga Tech here is more a pick against Clemson than a ?vote of confidence? on Tech, but we have two very strong factors working in Tech?s (and our) favor tonite. First and most important is the fact that as mentioned above, the frustrating result of that OT loss on Sunday once again ripped the hearts out of the Clemson team, coaches and fans. How can a team recover from that kind of devastating loss? Well, most teams do, eventually, but as we saw the last time this happened to Tigers, very few recover right away, and we have won a lot of bets riding this ?post-heartbreak? system of going against a team which has just suffered a devastating loss, especially if they are favored as is the case here, until they play a good game in winning outright and preferably ?covering? the spread as well, with the biggest bet against them in their first game after the ?heartbreak? loss (i.e., this game for Clemson). The other factor in our favor here is Clemson?s ineptitude from the FT line, which is not only a weak 60% at home TY but also a putrid 57.5% over their last 5 games, including that 1-7 in their LG, at Carolina. Their poor FT shooting also did them in against Carolina the first time, as in that game they were a pathetic 14-27 (52%) from the ?charity stripe,? as compared to Carolina?s robust 24-30 for 80%. And in some other home games, it?s even been worse, like their 10-26 (38%) free throw ?brickfest? (Hell, even Shaq and I could combine for a better FT shooting % than that) as a ten point home fave in an early season 3 point non-covering win against Purdue, a game in which they should have covered (and would have, with just 8 more FTs made, which would have resulted from a ?normal? 69% FT shooting %). Clemson has played four conference home games TY vs a comparable (but slightly inferior) level of competition than that presented by Ga Tech, in addition to the two aforementioned home point spread failures vs Charlotte and Purdue, and won all four SU (3-1 ATS in them), but had to ?work overtime? to beat both Wake Forest and Fla State. But let?s look at how well Tigers fared from the FT line in those two close, OT home wins over Wake Forest and Fla State. Well, they were slightly above average at 63.5% vs Fla state, but absolutely dreadful at 44% FTs vs Wake, in a game that never would have gone to OT with Clemson shooting even 55% from the FT line, and which Wake helped Clemson?s cause by converting an equally ?brick-like? 47% of their own FTs.
So we have a strong ?case? against Clemson covering the ?number,? but what about Ga Tech? They have been decent but not great as a road dog TY, and are 3-1 SU and ATS as a road dog in ACC games, but their road success has been more against B teams like Va, Wake Forest and NC State, all of whom they have beaten SU, while they are 0-2 SU and ATS in their two road games TY against A teams like Clemson, losing by 12 at UConn and 10 at Miami, despite leading by 4 at the half at UConn and being down by only 2 at HT at Miami. However, this is a road-oriented series, with the road team covering 6 of last 8 and GT being 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 at Clemson. Moreover, there is a lot of ?room? in this line, and with ?heartbroken? Clemson still licking their emotional ?wounds,? and their confidence no doubt shattered, we predict that (i) Clemson will not ?bring? their ?A game? tonite and (ii) Ga Tech will at least cover this generous spread. The line has dropped a bit (to 8 or 8.5) at some sports books since last night, when we posted this pick to give our customers the benefit of the ?fat? opening line. but we still strongly recommend taking Tech at +8 or better.
But we will not put all of our ?Ga Tech money? on the full game ATS line. Even though the Top Ten site is not set up for releasing official first half picks, we will split our five ATS units on Ga Tech into two plays, one a two unit first half pick at +4.5 or 5, and the other a three unit full game pick at +8 or better (but this pick is "officially" at +9). We expect Tech to come out strong and break on top in the first half just like Charlotte did at Clemson in ?post Carolina heart-break? game #1, but just to be sure and to get a bigger sampling of first half performance by both teams in their respective modes for this game (Clemson home, GT away), we broke down the first half performances of each team in their recent (since jan 1) home games (Clemson) and road games (GT) against comparable levels of competition. We found that Clemson is just 2-4 ATS on the first half line in the six games surveyed for an average of a one point HT lead, while GT was tied or ahead at the half in 3 of their six games surveyed, with an average HT deficit of 4 points. We also looked at the last two games between these two at Clemson, and saw that Tech was ahead at the half in both games despite losing both, one by 13 and the other (last year) a one point loss/cover. Speaking of those two Tech losses at Clemson, we looked at what happened (how and why Tech lost), and both times they shot over 50% but lost the game on TOs (at ?10 LY and ?9 the year before). But looking at Tech?s ?numbers" in the aforementioned six road games surveyed from TY, they were in the ?minus column? in TOs in only one of the six, so we don?t expect TOs to be a major problem this time for Tech. While it?s even more difficult to predict which team will cover the first half line than it is to predict which team will cover the full game line, there are certain situations where a first half bet is justified, and we believe this is one of them. One final word about first and second half betting on this game ? in the unlikely event Clemson is ahead at the half, has covered the half time line and the resulting adjusted game line (using the HT score and the second half line) gives you GT at +10 or better, we would recommend a second half bet on Tech for another unit or two (absent a ?game ending? first half injury to any key Ga Tech player), as this is an intense rivalry where neither team will give up and no lead is safe until the final ?horn? goes off.
Our final recommendation is to take a ?shot? at GT winning the game and taking them with this tempting money line spread of +350 (risking just two units to win a huge 7 units), based both on all of the foregoing and the 10 point SU home loss suffered by Clemson to Charlotte in January in a virtually identical bad situation for Clemson. As stated earlier, we expect GT to break out on top and very likely to be ahead at the half, and we also expect Clemson to recover somewhat in the second half, but maybe not enough to catch up and win the game, with their poor FT shooting. However, Clemson has won two ACC home games in overtime TY, so we will tread somewhat lightly with this money line pick.
