Dr Bob Write ups
2 Star Selection
Orlando (-3) over MEMPHIS
23-Jan-08 05:05 PM Pacific Time
Memphis is just 12-29 straight up this season and 5 of those wins have come against the league?s 3 worst teams ? Miami, Minnesota, and Seattle. The Grizzlies are just 7-29 ATS against all other teams and only 4-13 ATS in those games when they are not an underdog of 6 points or more, including 0-5 ATS after a win (they?re coming off a home win over Chicago). One of the Grizzlies? rare wins against a good team was a victory at Orlando on December 15th, which will assure that the Magic will be focused for this game despite coming off an upset win over Detroit on Monday. Orlando didn?t letdown earlier this season after beating the Celtics (they won at New Orleans in their next game) and coach Stan Van Gundy?s teams rarely letdown against bad teams. In Van Gundy?s career, his teams are an incredible 40-9-3 ATS when rested and facing a team that has a win percentage of less than .450 and is also 4 games or more below .500. Van Gundy?s record in that role this season is 8-4 ATS and his Magic are also 18-7 ATS on the road this year and have routinely beaten bad teams. There are 5 other teams besides Memphis that currently have a win percentage of .333 or worse and Orlando is 5-0 ATS on the road against those other 5 teams (Clippers, New York, Miami, Seattle, and Minnesota) with all 5 wins being by 7 points or more. My ratings favor Orlando by 4 ? points and the fact that point guard Jameer Nelson is out shouldn?t be a factor given that the Magic are 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS in the games that Nelson has missed this season (including wins over Portland and Detroit in their last 2 games). I?ll take Orlando in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
2-Stars at -3 or less.
COLLEGE
2 Star Selection
MISSOURI STATE (-2 ?) over Southern Illinois
23-Jan-08 05:00 PM Pacific Time
Missouri State has had a tradition of playing better once conference season starts under coach Barry Hinson, as the Bears are just 31-37 ATS in regular season non-conference games and a very profitable 85- 61-5 ATS in regular season conference affairs. The Bears have been especially good in conference play if they?re coming off a bad game against a conference foe, as Hinson?s team is 28-13 ATS against fellow MVC teams after a game in which they lost straight up and lost against the spread to a conference team ? including 3-0 ATS this season. Missouri State has been at their best this season at home (4-3 ATS, 3-0 ATS conference after a loss), while going just 1- 7 ATS away from Springfield, and I expect the Bears to play well tonight at home after losing 55-70 at Northern Iowa on Sunday. Southern Illinois, meanwhile, is just 1-6 ATS on the road this season, with their only spread win coming against lowly Evansville. Southern Illinois has lost by 9 points or more against every decent team that they have visited this season (Charlotte, W. Mich, Drake, and Illinois St) and even lost at St. Louis and at Indiana State ? teams that are both about 7 points worse than Missouri State. My ratings favor Missouri State by 4 ? points and the Bears apply to a decent 329-182-8 ATS contrary indicator that plays on teams with bad spread records. Missouri State pointguard Spencer Laurie is not 100% with his strained hamstring, so I want some line value on my side just in case he doesn?t play as well as normal. Spencer?s brother Shane Laurie is out for a few games but the Bears played great without him in a 71-47 win over Wichita State a couple of weeks ago and it?s not too tough to replace his 39.8% shooting. I?ll take Missouri State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.
2-Stars at -3 or less.
3 Star Selection
Iowa (+16) over INDIANA
23-Jan-08 06:00 PM Pacific Time
Iowa was horrible early in this season under first year coach Todd Lickliter, but the return to health of pointguard Tony Freeman has the Hawkeyes playing much better basketball. Iowa is 1-7 ATS in games that Freeman did not play and they are 5-3 ATS with Freeman running the team, including 4-1 ATS as a double-digit dog. Iowa is tough to beat by a margin because they play good defense and they slow down the pace of the game ? and less possessions makes it tougher for better teams to extend the margin. Coach Lickliter's teams at Butler also slowed the pace and were tough to beat and Lickliter is now 17-3 ATS in his last 20 games as an underdog of more than 3 points (5-1 ATS with Iowa). Iowa has lost just one game all season by 14 points or more and they only lost at home to Indiana by 3 points earlier this month. The Hawkeyes have also beaten Michigan State 43-36 and covered as an 18 point dog at Wisconsin (51-64), so they?re certainly capable of competing at decent level against elite teams. My ratings favor Indiana by just 13 ? points in this game (after factoring in the recent loss of Iowa F Jarryd Cole) and the Hawkeyes apply to a very good 45-12-1 ATS subset of a 109-45-6 ATS big road underdog situation that won for me on Monday with USF at Gonzaga. I?ll take Iowa in a 3-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more and for 2-Stars at +13 ? or +13 points.
3-Stars at +14 or more, 2-Stars at +13 1/2 or +13.