Teddy Covers
GAME: San Diego State @ Brigham Young Jan 23, 2008 8:00PM
SPORT: College Basketball Picks
PICK: San Diego State
Offered at: 8.5 5Dimes
REASON FOR PICK: Yes, BYU has a strong homecourt, winning all nine previous home games this season. But to say that the Cougars have not been tested in Provo is something of an understatement, favored by at least 17 points in every previous lined home game this year. And one thing we haven?t seen from BYU this year is the ability to beat solid teams by margin. Much of their difficulties come on the offensive end. BYU?s big men lack toughness and muscle, unable to create their own shot in traffic. Their backcourt has been largely responsible for the 16 turnovers per game that they?ve suffered this season. And let?s not forget about the mediocre 65% free throw shooting that makes it difficult for the Cougars to pull away late; 59% from the charity stripe and under 40% from the floor in their last five games.
San Diego State has great athletes, a problem for a BYU team that is athletically challenged, to put it mildly. The Aztecs have been playing tremendous basketball in recent weeks, including an impressive outright win at New Mexico (in this exact same price range, +9.5) to open up Mountain West play on the road. We?ve seen Steve Fisher?s squad win outright on the road at Loyola Marymount, Fresno State and San Diego as well, with a competitive eight point loss at Cal. San Diego State has played well in this venue, with an outright win, an overtime loss and a competitive two point loss in their last five trips to Provo. They beat BYU by a dozen at home in their most recent meeting, last February. I give them a solid shot at taking this game to the wire, with a chance at the outright upset win. (#775) Take San Diego State.
