FERRINGO
7-Unit Play. Take #734 Central Florida (-3) over UTEP (7 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 23)
Note: This is our CUSA Game of the Year.
Did you know that the last time the Miners left the state of Texas to play was back on December 8th? Yeah, true story. They are coming off a tough loss in a rivalry game with in-state conference foe Houston, and now have to face one of the scrappiest defensive teams in the country, as well as the clear-cut No. 2 in CUSA this year. The Knights are a better shooting team and have played a much more competitive schedule than UTEP, which has beaten just two teams ? New Mexico State and SE Louisiana ? inside the RPI Top 215. Yes, the Miners have played some very good teams tough on the road, but they haven?t won any of those games and all of them were played in the state of Texas. UTEP is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 conference games and 2-8 ATS on the road in conference play. Further, UCF is 4-1-1 ATS at home and 11-5-1 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record. Central Florida has won and covered both of its meetings against UTEP and I think their three-guard attack on the perimeter will trump UTEP?s rather one-dimensional offense of Stefon Johnson. I think the final will be 68-57 and that we?re getting a premium price on the better team.
3-Unit Play. Take #756 UNC-Wilmington (-3) over Northeastern (7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 23)
The Huskies have dropped six straight road games and the home team has won all three meetings in this series. The Seahawks have shot over 50 percent in each of their last two home games, including a 63-percent clip in their last outing in Wilmington, and I think they should have some success against the No. 212 FG defense in the nation. Northeastern has a very hard time putting the ball in the hole and are one of the worst 3-point shooting clubs in the country. If UNC-W can come out of the gate hot they could bury a team with a short bench, playing off a draining overtime win.
4-Unit Play. Take #726 St. Joseph?s (-5.5) over Massachusetts (6 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 23)
The Hawks have played seven of their last eight games on the road so I?m looking for the home court to give the Hawks a boost. St. Joseph?s has been one of the best bets in the nation, posting an 8-1 ATS mark over its last nine lined games.
2-Unit Play. Take #732 Buffalo (+4.5) over Ohio (7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 23)
We?re catching the Bobcats in a perfect letdown spot ? they just wholloped one of the best teams in the conference on Saturday and are now on the road against the last-place team in the MAC East. Well, Buffalo just happens to be a completely different team at home. The home team has covered six straight in this series, and nine of 10 overall.
2-Unit Play. Take #805 Cal-Riverside (+18) over Cal State-Fullerton (10 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 23)
This is how it goes in the Big West ? hyper-inflated favorites let scrubby teams hang around and not cover fat spreads. Fullerton already beat Riverside by 30 this season, so now Riverside has all of the motivation. I think Fullerton will sleepwalk through at least one of these halves and will allow the Highlanders to hang around. Riverside is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Fullerton and the road team is 9-3 ATS in this series.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #794 Tulsa (+13.5) over Memphis (8 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 23)
Over the past two years the Golden Hurricane has played the Tigers as tough as anyone, going 2-1 ATS in the L3 and losing by just 14 points per. They play a deliberate style and if they can turn this one into a grinder they may be able to hang around. In fact, they remind me a bit of Cincinnati, one of the last teams to cover against the Tigers. Memphis is 1-4 ATS in their L5 on the road and Tulsa is 5-1 ATS in its L6 home games. Memphis has taken over 90 percent of the action in this game but the line hasn?t budged. I think this one is closer than the squares think.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #730 Rutgers (+9) over Villanova (7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 23)
This line jumped out at me when they were released Tuesday evening. I don?t think Villanova is any good, at all, and I think they are the most overrated team in the Top 25. They followed up a big win over in-state rival LaSalle with a loss at Depaul as a favorite. They followed up a big win over Pittsburgh with a loss at Cincinnati as a favorite. And now they are coming off a big road win at Syracuse and are DD faves headed into the RAC. I?ll take the points.
2-Unit Play. Take #742 Indiana State (-7.5) over Evansville (7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 23)
The Sycamore?s are 8-0 at home and the Purple Aces are 1-7 on the road. Let?s not overthink this one. ISU won the first meeting by 14 points in Evansville and should lay a big number on the Aces here. ISU is coming off two blowout losses but is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games, winning by an average of 8.8 points and covering the spread by an average of six points. Missouri Valley home favorites of 7.0 or more are 10-4 ATS in league play this year.
1-Unit Play. Take #779 Southern Illinois (+3) over Missouri State (8 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 23)
I think the Salukis are due for a road win. Missouri State is without its top big man, so Randal Falker should have a day and open things up on the outside for Matt Shaw and Bryan Mullins. The Bears are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games.
1-Unit Play. Take #789 Missouri (+1) over Texas Tech (8 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 23)
7-Unit Play. Take #734 Central Florida (-3) over UTEP (7 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 23)
Note: This is our CUSA Game of the Year.
Did you know that the last time the Miners left the state of Texas to play was back on December 8th? Yeah, true story. They are coming off a tough loss in a rivalry game with in-state conference foe Houston, and now have to face one of the scrappiest defensive teams in the country, as well as the clear-cut No. 2 in CUSA this year. The Knights are a better shooting team and have played a much more competitive schedule than UTEP, which has beaten just two teams ? New Mexico State and SE Louisiana ? inside the RPI Top 215. Yes, the Miners have played some very good teams tough on the road, but they haven?t won any of those games and all of them were played in the state of Texas. UTEP is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 conference games and 2-8 ATS on the road in conference play. Further, UCF is 4-1-1 ATS at home and 11-5-1 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record. Central Florida has won and covered both of its meetings against UTEP and I think their three-guard attack on the perimeter will trump UTEP?s rather one-dimensional offense of Stefon Johnson. I think the final will be 68-57 and that we?re getting a premium price on the better team.
3-Unit Play. Take #756 UNC-Wilmington (-3) over Northeastern (7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 23)
The Huskies have dropped six straight road games and the home team has won all three meetings in this series. The Seahawks have shot over 50 percent in each of their last two home games, including a 63-percent clip in their last outing in Wilmington, and I think they should have some success against the No. 212 FG defense in the nation. Northeastern has a very hard time putting the ball in the hole and are one of the worst 3-point shooting clubs in the country. If UNC-W can come out of the gate hot they could bury a team with a short bench, playing off a draining overtime win.
4-Unit Play. Take #726 St. Joseph?s (-5.5) over Massachusetts (6 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 23)
The Hawks have played seven of their last eight games on the road so I?m looking for the home court to give the Hawks a boost. St. Joseph?s has been one of the best bets in the nation, posting an 8-1 ATS mark over its last nine lined games.
2-Unit Play. Take #732 Buffalo (+4.5) over Ohio (7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 23)
We?re catching the Bobcats in a perfect letdown spot ? they just wholloped one of the best teams in the conference on Saturday and are now on the road against the last-place team in the MAC East. Well, Buffalo just happens to be a completely different team at home. The home team has covered six straight in this series, and nine of 10 overall.
2-Unit Play. Take #805 Cal-Riverside (+18) over Cal State-Fullerton (10 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 23)
This is how it goes in the Big West ? hyper-inflated favorites let scrubby teams hang around and not cover fat spreads. Fullerton already beat Riverside by 30 this season, so now Riverside has all of the motivation. I think Fullerton will sleepwalk through at least one of these halves and will allow the Highlanders to hang around. Riverside is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Fullerton and the road team is 9-3 ATS in this series.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #794 Tulsa (+13.5) over Memphis (8 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 23)
Over the past two years the Golden Hurricane has played the Tigers as tough as anyone, going 2-1 ATS in the L3 and losing by just 14 points per. They play a deliberate style and if they can turn this one into a grinder they may be able to hang around. In fact, they remind me a bit of Cincinnati, one of the last teams to cover against the Tigers. Memphis is 1-4 ATS in their L5 on the road and Tulsa is 5-1 ATS in its L6 home games. Memphis has taken over 90 percent of the action in this game but the line hasn?t budged. I think this one is closer than the squares think.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #730 Rutgers (+9) over Villanova (7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 23)
This line jumped out at me when they were released Tuesday evening. I don?t think Villanova is any good, at all, and I think they are the most overrated team in the Top 25. They followed up a big win over in-state rival LaSalle with a loss at Depaul as a favorite. They followed up a big win over Pittsburgh with a loss at Cincinnati as a favorite. And now they are coming off a big road win at Syracuse and are DD faves headed into the RAC. I?ll take the points.
2-Unit Play. Take #742 Indiana State (-7.5) over Evansville (7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 23)
The Sycamore?s are 8-0 at home and the Purple Aces are 1-7 on the road. Let?s not overthink this one. ISU won the first meeting by 14 points in Evansville and should lay a big number on the Aces here. ISU is coming off two blowout losses but is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games, winning by an average of 8.8 points and covering the spread by an average of six points. Missouri Valley home favorites of 7.0 or more are 10-4 ATS in league play this year.
1-Unit Play. Take #779 Southern Illinois (+3) over Missouri State (8 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 23)
I think the Salukis are due for a road win. Missouri State is without its top big man, so Randal Falker should have a day and open things up on the outside for Matt Shaw and Bryan Mullins. The Bears are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games.
1-Unit Play. Take #789 Missouri (+1) over Texas Tech (8 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 23)