BEN BURNS
NBA
PHILADELPHIA
Game: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers Game Time: 1/30/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers Reason: I'm laying the points with PHILADELPHIA. Both these teams have struggled this season and both have similar records. However, in addition to having homecourt advantage, the scheduling situation strongly favors the home team this evening. While the 76ers haven't played since an upset win at Charlotte Saturday, the Bucks come off a hard-fought loss vs. New Jersey last night. Note that the Bucks are just 6-14 SU and 7-12-1 ATS the last 20 times that they played the second of back to back games, most recently getting crushed by 31 points by the Raptors. This is more than just your typical "back to back situation" though. Indeed, the Bucks will now be playing their 7th game in the past 10 nights. It doesn't get much more gruelling than that in this league and I expect the banged-up Bucks, who will still be without leading-scorer Redd, to be an extremely weary bunch tonight. The Bucks shot just 37.5 percent last night, while losing for the eighth time in 11 games overall. Note that they have averaged only 83.5 points in their last four road games, more than 10 points below their overall average. Not surprisingly, they were 0-4 ATS in those games, losing by an average of nearly 16 points per game. The 76ers will have payback on their minds, as they've been beaten by the Bucks in both this season's previous meetings. Note that the 76ers are 8-5 ATS this season when attempting to avenge a home loss and 10-6 ATS the last 16 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. The 76ers played very well in their win at Charlotte, which has become a fairly difficult venue. Andre Iguodala, who has scored at least 20 in four straight games vs. the Bucks, scored 33 points, while Andre Miller added 23. As coach Maurice Cheeks said. "Our guys hang in there. They keep fighting. They never stop. At some point it's going to turn for us if we keep playing the way we're playing." Look for them to be both the "fresher" and the hungrier team tonight, as they avenge the earlier losses in convincing fashion. *Eastern Conference GOW
UNDER washington/toronto
Game: Washington Wizards vs. Toronto Raptors Game Time: 1/30/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Washington and Toronto to finish UNDER the total. I lost on the "under" when these teams faced each other yesterday. That was an unfortunate break as the game would have stayed below the number if the Raptors hadn't hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer to force overtime. I don't think that we'll be seeing another overtime game today and with the teams playing the second of back to back games, I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring contest. The UNDER is 3-1 the last four times that the Wizards played the second of back to back games. Those four games averaged just 177 points. Note that the Wizards, already without Arenas, will still be without leading scorer Caron Butler. Andray Blatche did an excellent job in replacing Butler, scoring 19 points on 8-of-12 shooting, in only his second start of the season. However, with the Raptors ready for him, I feel that it's fairly unlikely that he'll hit 2/3 of his shots again tonight. Note that the Raptors have played superb defense in each of their last two home games. Indeed, they held Atlanta to 78 points two games ago and then followed that up by allowing Milwaukee to score a mere 75 in their most recent game here. Including those results, the Raptors have now held 10 of their last 13 opponents here to double-digits in scoring. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is now a highly profitable 13-5 their last 18 games here. Sam Mitchell wasn't pleased with his team's defense last night. Look for his club to bounce back with a much better effort on that side of the ball this evening, continuing their recent run of low-scoring games on this floor. *Eastern Conf. TOM
HOCKEY
ATLANTA
Game: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Atlanta Thrashers Game Time: 1/30/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Atlanta Thrashers Reason: I'm laying the price with ATLANTA. The home team has won both meetings so far this season. The Penguins won at Pittsburgh back in November while the Thrashers returned the favor at Atlanta earlier this month. I expect home ice to be the difference again this evening. Dating back to 2005, the Thrashers are 4-1 (+2.1) the last five times they hosted the Penguins. Tonight, the well-rested Thrashers will be facing a Pittsburgh team which is still without star Sidney Crosby and which is coming off an upset win at New Jersey last night. Note that the Pens are just 6-14 the last 20 times that they played the second of back to back games, most recently losing 4-2 vs. the Islanders. The Pens are also just 43-63 the past few seasons when facing a team which defeated them in their previous meeting. Having closed out the first half on a losing streak, the Thrashers should be extremely motivated. Look for a huge effort as the Thrashers 'get back on track,' continuing their recent home ice success in this series and picking up a much-needed two points. *Personal Favorite
NCAA BASKETBALL
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Game: St. Josephs vs. George Washington Game Time: 1/30/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: George Washington Reason: I'm taking the points with GEORGE WASHINGTON. The Colonials have really struggled on the road. However, they've also been tough at home, going 5-2 overall, including 2-0 ATS in their conference home games. As coach Karl Hobbs noted: "At home, we're fine. The question is when we go on the road..." In their most recent game here, the Colonials covered vs. a strong Xavier team, losing by eight points. Prior to that, they crushed St Louis, holding the Billikens to a mere 20 points. Looking back further and we find the Colonials at 21-3 SU and 14-8-2 ATS their last 24 home lined games. During that stretch, they've gone 32-10 SU their last 42 conference games. While this year's squad isn't as strong as they've been in the past, as evidenced by the result vs. St. Louis, the Colonials have done an excellent job at playing defense here at home, while controlling the tempo. Indeed, in seven games here, they're allowing an average of just 54 points. St. Joseph's has managed to win three of its last four games. However, two of those victories came by four points or less and they were just 1-3 ATS during that stretch. The Hawks are a solid and balanced team and it appears that they'll be making some noise in the Atlantic-10 this season. That being said, they're coming off an exciting 1-point win at Temple and have a trio of huge games on deck in their near future. That starts with the "Holy War" vs. Villanova (Feb. 2) and includes trips to vastly improved Duquesne (Feb. 6) and then to fellow A-10 power Xavier on February 10. In other words, I feel that it may be easy to get caught looking past tonight's "lesser" opponent. That will prove costly though as the Colonials have won five of the past six series meetings with the lone loss coming by just six points. Look for the Colonials to effectively slow down the pace of the game as they continue their strong play on this court and in this series, earning us at least the cover. *Atlantic 10 GOW
Ben Burns Comp
Game: Chicago Blackhawks at Colorado Avalanche Jan 30 2008 9:35PM
Prediction: Colorado Avalanche
Reason: The Avs will have "payback" on their minds as the Hawks have already beaten them twice this season. Playing on home ice, should provide an excellent opportunity to have their "revenge." While, the Blackhawks have won 10 of 23 road games this season. the Avalanche have won 17 of 26 games at home. Despite dealing with injuries, the Avs have remained competitive this month. The Hawks, on the other hand, have really struggled the past few weeks, going just 4-9 in 2008. That brings them to an ugly 10-29 (-17.2) in January the past few seasons. Consider a play on COLORADO
