Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Loyola Marymount Lions @ Saint Marys Ca - Monday January 21, 2008 10:05 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Saint Marys Ca -26 (-109) (Normal)
Winning 11 of 15 days (73%) and 14 of 20 days (70%) in January and 16 of 21 (76%) days overall. 18 of 25 POD (71%) doing 1 per day and the only handicapper in the nation that is above 60% in Basketball 2007 after a 150 plays and counting. 3 comp winners in a row going for 4th comp winner in a row today. Once again, the public sees a lot of points and jumps all over the jockstraps of a Loyola Marymount who is ranked in the top 30 in the nation. I want you to follow me closely here. This is the same situation for one of the other selections today. St. Mary's had a very tight ballgame against Pepperdine and I can promise you that their coach is furious for having such a tight ballgame with Pepperdine after Gonzaga blew out Pepperdine on the road. Now, this team played a 5 point game against St. Mary's and that infuriates the St. Mary's coaching staff likely. Hell, that is why this line is as high as it is as this St. Mary's team who is a top 20 team in the nation will be furiously looking to blow out someone out of the gym today and St. Mary's fits the bill. Sure, Loyola can come around for the backdoor here and no, that would not surprise me, but keep in mind that Loyola is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog and 3-13-2 ATS in their last 18 road games overall. This St. Mary's team beat a Santa Clara team 76-45 by 31 points who is a top 175 team and I certainly think they have the potential to hammer a team that is top 300 in the nation.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Canisius Golden Griffins @ Siena Saints - Monday January 21, 2008 6:30 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Siena Saints -20.5 (-109) (Play of the Day)
I"ve always said that when you see 66% of the public on an underdog, shy away from it and favor the - the favorite as public underdogs that are heavily favored rarely do well. I've provided countless examples including the fact when the world was on the Pack on the road against Dallas as the Cowboys covered or when the Mavs were in Utah and the world was on Dallas and Utah ended up covering with relative ease - well, much is the same case today when the Saints play Canisius. Sure, Canisius beat Niagara at home and that was a very good effort on their part. But, keep in mind this team has been terrible - dismal - on the road and I believe they are likely in for a let down here. My spreadsheets are what has led me to have the success I continue to have in basketball and I have them as one of the worst 20 teams in the nation referring to Canisius. Siena is big-time folks as they are one of the top 100 teams in the nation. Sure, Canisius has a great deal of revenge from losing by 30 to this team at home but Siena has beat similarly ranked teams at home by 25 on average. I also like the line movement I have seen offshore. Yes, Canisius beat Niagara at home who is also a top 100 team, but don't forget that this team lost 51-102 to Rider, the same team that lost by 11 to St. Peters who is outside the top 300 and lost to Penn State 40-93 - a team that Siena is better than in my power rankings by a few spots. Canisius is in for a letdown here and given this team's propensity to get blown out and the public riding them so hard, I will take Siena here. Canisius is 0-6 ATS following an ATS cover showing their inconsistent play and this team is 1-7 ATS on the road while Siena is 4-0 ATS against teams with a losing straight up record meaning that they do well in a potential blowout game.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Pepperdine @ Santa Clara Broncos - Monday January 21, 2008 11:00 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Pepperdine +9 (-110) (Normal)
I think Pepperdine finally showed some heart in their last game when they went on the road to lose by 5 points to St. Mary's who is a top 20 team in the nation in the power rankings. That came off the heels of getting blown out by Gonzaga and this team has just 4 wins on the year and desperately needs to win their 5th straight ballgame - do they do it today - no, but I do believe that this team has potential as they are ranked in the top 200 while Santa Clara is ranked in the top 175 and my spreadsheets show that as a 4 to 5 point win. Remember, Santa Clara also played St. Mary's and lost by 31 points a score of 45-76 - the same team that St. Mary's lost by 5 on the road to. Does this mean they are equally as good, no, but it does mean that Pepperdine has the potential to play on the road and the same caliber on any given day, just depends on who shows up. Santa Clara also lost to San Jose State by 3 who is a top 200 team so why not Pepperdine who is desperately looking for their 5th win and will play with additional confidence playing such a tight game with St. Mary's? St. Mary's is 0-4 ATS following a straight up win and the Waves of Pepperdine are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 ballgames as an underdog of 7 to 12 points.
