SERVICE PLAYS Sat. 12/22
- Thread starter Thee Franchise
- Start date
Deuce True
Deuce True
Here it is boys and girls!
I'm just here to make you money, so open up your wallet and BET!
Odds Makers Error
Southern Miss +11
Vegas, are you serious about this line!?! The mighty Big East is coming to town to lay a big fat egg and expose their laughably weak conference! They are playing in Southern Miss's backyard and lets face it Cinci fans don't travel! The only team the state of Ohio is concerned with this bowl season is playing Jan 7th. Take the points as Southern Miss will turn this game into a nail-biter!!!
UCLA +6
For all you number crunchers: UCLA is 5-1 ATS this year as an underdog and 4-0 ATS versus BYU since 1992. This trend will continue as UCLA will roll. I don't care who is QB-ing or coaching UCLA, although I did hear Cade McNown and Troy Aikman will be in attendance...UCLA will push their record to 2-0 against BYU this year! Take the points with your man and if you're betting online take the MONEY LINE +200, too!!!
NEVER LET THE HOOK HANG YOU!
Deuce True
Here it is boys and girls!
I'm just here to make you money, so open up your wallet and BET!
Odds Makers Error
Southern Miss +11
Vegas, are you serious about this line!?! The mighty Big East is coming to town to lay a big fat egg and expose their laughably weak conference! They are playing in Southern Miss's backyard and lets face it Cinci fans don't travel! The only team the state of Ohio is concerned with this bowl season is playing Jan 7th. Take the points as Southern Miss will turn this game into a nail-biter!!!
UCLA +6
For all you number crunchers: UCLA is 5-1 ATS this year as an underdog and 4-0 ATS versus BYU since 1992. This trend will continue as UCLA will roll. I don't care who is QB-ing or coaching UCLA, although I did hear Cade McNown and Troy Aikman will be in attendance...UCLA will push their record to 2-0 against BYU this year! Take the points with your man and if you're betting online take the MONEY LINE +200, too!!!
NEVER LET THE HOOK HANG YOU!
Last edited:
THE GOLD SHEET - COLLEGE FOOTBALL:
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
SOUTHERN MISS (7-5) vs. CINCINNATI (9-3)
Saturday, December 22 Day at Birmingham, AL (Field Turf)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
So. Miss 11 6-5 5-6 28 25 190 200 37-25-11 146 227 34-14-20 -2 1.1 20.1
Cincinnati 11 8-3 9-2 35 20 140 280 50-15-29 99 281 26-9-13 +13 6.9 12.9
Cincinnati 28 - Southern Miss 24?
It?s not difficult to make a persuasive
case for Cincinnati. Head coach Brian Kelly is hot, going 26-8-3 vs. spread
since 2005 while helming Central Michigan & Cincinnati. The speedy,
veteran Cincy defense?led by jr. DE Anthony Hoke (12 sacks) & a ballhawking
secondary?has 39 ?takeaways? (2nd in nation). Savvy sr. QB Ben
Mauk has fired 27 TD passes, while RS frosh slot receiver Marcus Barnett
(21 catches for 337 yards & 5 TDs in just last 2 games!) is a rising star.
The argument for Southern Miss isn?t as clear cut. After 17 years on the job
and 14 straight winning seasons, head coach Jeff Bower is being forced out. An
uneven 2007 campaign was pocked by 3 home losses, including a 7-turnover
stinker against then-winless Rice. The Golden Eagles? offense often sputters,
and their defense isn?t as stout as it was earlier this decade.
So, why back the underdog? First and foremost, star RB Damion Fletcher.
The true soph has run for more than 1400 yards & scored 15 TDs in each of his
first 2 seasons! Second, QB Jeremy Young. Injuries have prevented him from
amassing an impressive statistical r?sum?, but, when healthy, the nimble
senior can move the chains. And the USM defense is no pushover, its veteran
DL backed by ubiquitous all-conf. jr. LB Gerald McRath (131 tackles) & stalwart
sr. CB Brandon Sumrall (5 ints.).
Scouts say the Golden Eagles are determined to send out Bower on a high
note. Cincy?s TO margin was +22 in its 9 wins, but -5 in its 3 losses. If USM
takes proper care of the rock, it should hang inside generous spread.
(04-Cincinnati +6 52-24...SR: EVEN 7-7
LAS VEGAS BOWL
UCLA (6-6) vs. BYU (10-2)
Saturday, December 22 Night at Las Vegas, NV (Field Turf)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Ucla 12 6-6 8-4 23 23 150 185 30-11-12 115 233 33-10-21 -3 .7 10.4
Byu 11 9-2 6-5 30 20 147 317 44-20-23 97 214 25-12-10 -9 .3 13.3
*Ucla 23 - Byu 22?
Plenty of angles to consider here, not the least of
which is UCLA?s in-limbo coaching situation after Karl Dorrell was dismissed
following the season-ending loss to USC. Defensive coordinator DeWayne
Walker will coach Bruins in what might amount to an audition for the job, one
for which BYU HC Bronco Mendenhall has also been mentioned as a
possible candidate. There?s also the ?Ben Olson factor,? as the oft-injured
UCLA QB began his career at BYU. And that Olson storyline was quite a
talking point before the first meeting between these two this season, when
Bruins escaped with a 27-17 win at Pasadena way back on September 8.
Not that prior matchups are always an indicator of the way things will proceed
in rematches, but a quick revisit of that earlier UCLA win is probably in order.
Bruins jumped on the Cougs quickly, roaring to 20-0 lead in 2nd Q, thanks in
part to a 56-yard interception return TD by CB Trey Brown. But Cougs
eventually began to take control of the game as BYU?s Arizona State transfer
QB Max Hall, making only his second start, pulled Cougs to within 20-17 in 4th
Q, and in position to level matters or perhaps take lead midway in 4th Q when
Hall fumbled the ball on a sack by UCLA DE Bruce Davis at the Bruin 19-yard
line. After subsequent change of possessions, UCLA marched 45 yards for the
clinching (and spread-covering) TD in the final minutes, a key pass interference
call keeping drive alive before Chris Markey salted the game away for Bruins
with 3-yard scoring run. BYU ended up with a sizeable advantage in total
offense (435-236), with Olson (only 126 YP) clearly outplayed by Hall, who
passed for 391 yards. Walker?s veteran UCLA ?D,? however, stuffed the Cougar
ground game (only 44 YR), and made the momentum-changing plays. Yet the
consensus opinion around the MWC and Pac-10 is that BYU improved
considerably after that defeat, while UCLA, battling a string of injuries, regressed.
But we?re intrigued by the possibility of a sell-out effort by the Bruins, not only
to wipe away the disappointments of their 6-6 season, but to perhaps give the
popular Walker the inside track on the permanent job. If UCLA can again keep
the BYU infantry in check, Hall will not find smooth sailing vs. the vet Bruin 2ndary.
And though UCLA?s ?O? remains choppy, the 3-week break since the USC game
should at least give QBs Olson and/or Patrick Cowan sufficient time to recover
from an assortment of injuries that slowed each in second half of campaign.
Remember, Bruins have been a righteous underdog since d.c. Walker arrived
LY (9-1 in role), and another kamikaze effort in their preferred role might be enough
to score minor upset...and perhaps give the HC job to players? choice Walker.
(07-UCLA 27-Byu 17...B.23-15 U.37/110 B.25/44 B.30/53/1/391 U.13/28/1/126 U.0 B.3)
(07-UCLA -8 27-17...SR: UCLA 7-1)
NEW MEXICO BOWL
NEVADA (6-6) at NEW MEXICO (8-4)
Saturday, Dec. 22 Day at Albuquerque, NM (Grass Field)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Nevada 11 5-6 5-6 35 34 217 264 49-23-24 169 252 47-24-19 -2 -1.6 17.7
N. MEX 11 7-4 4-7 22 22 126 218 24-11-12 131 218 28-9-16 -2 -.2 15.8
Nevada 31 - NEW MEXICO 29?
Granted, Ohio State-LSU this ain?t. And we
don?t think many last-minute Christmas shoppers are going to pause to take a
peek at this by-product of the expanded (bloated?) bowl season featuring WAC
and Mountain West also-rans in Albuquerque.
That?s a shame, because we?d bet they?ll be missing quite a show. It?s hard
to draw any other conclusions for games involving the thrill-a-minute Nevada
bunch that is a handful of plays from entering this contest with a 10-2 mark,
instead of a middling 6-6. The heart-stopping Wolf Pack also managed to
squeeze out three wins that weren?t decided until the game?s final play, so it?s
not much of a stretch to expect another white-knuckler at the foot of the
picturesque Sandia mountains.
The chess match that will draw the most attention is Chris Ault?s hybrid
Nevada Pistol attack against Rocky Long?s UNM 3-3-5 defense. But regional
insiders are hardly convinced the Lobos? unorthodox stop unit will prove the
proper recipe to slow Wolf Pack?s gunslinging RS frosh QB Colin Kaepernick,
who began to impact games in a near Vince Young-like fashion when taking
over for injured starter Nick Graziano in early October. In a little more than half
a season of full-time duty, Kaepernick has fired 19 TDP vs. only 3 picks, while
his long stride accounted for another 567 YR and 6 more TDs on the ground.
That mobility, along with the presence of slamming north-south RB Lippincott
(1380 YR and 15 TDs), will make Long think twice before unleashing his famous
blitz packages. And if Long is limited with his gambling tactics defensively, the
undersized Lobo stop unit might be vulnerable at the point of attack vs. another
big, physical ?Union? OL from Reno.
Defensively, the shaky Wolf Pack ?D,? exploited on more than one occasion
this season, became a bit more menacing when finally getting healthy down the
stretch. And this is not a dynamic UNM attack, with soph QB Donovan Porterie
blowing hot-and-cold most of the season. Big plays are hardly a staple of the latest version of the Lobo West Coast offense installed by 1styear
o.c. Dave Baldwin, featuring lots of short passes to WRs Marcus Smith &
Travis Brown (combined 155 catches) and between-the-tackles thrusts of RB
Rodney Ferguson (1177 YR, but only 4.0 ypc). Too often, UNM has had to turn
to the reliable toe of PK John Sullivan (26-29 FGs) for the bulk of its scoring.
Finally, it?s hard to overlook the Lobos? consistent failures in the postseason
under Long, who?s yet to win or cover a bowl game in 4 tries and is 4-9 as home
chalk since ?04. Given Nevada?s penchant for playing ?em close, a mild upset
would come as no surprise.
(DNP...SR: NEW MEXICO 1-0-1)
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
SOUTHERN MISS (7-5) vs. CINCINNATI (9-3)
Saturday, December 22 Day at Birmingham, AL (Field Turf)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
So. Miss 11 6-5 5-6 28 25 190 200 37-25-11 146 227 34-14-20 -2 1.1 20.1
Cincinnati 11 8-3 9-2 35 20 140 280 50-15-29 99 281 26-9-13 +13 6.9 12.9
Cincinnati 28 - Southern Miss 24?
It?s not difficult to make a persuasive
case for Cincinnati. Head coach Brian Kelly is hot, going 26-8-3 vs. spread
since 2005 while helming Central Michigan & Cincinnati. The speedy,
veteran Cincy defense?led by jr. DE Anthony Hoke (12 sacks) & a ballhawking
secondary?has 39 ?takeaways? (2nd in nation). Savvy sr. QB Ben
Mauk has fired 27 TD passes, while RS frosh slot receiver Marcus Barnett
(21 catches for 337 yards & 5 TDs in just last 2 games!) is a rising star.
The argument for Southern Miss isn?t as clear cut. After 17 years on the job
and 14 straight winning seasons, head coach Jeff Bower is being forced out. An
uneven 2007 campaign was pocked by 3 home losses, including a 7-turnover
stinker against then-winless Rice. The Golden Eagles? offense often sputters,
and their defense isn?t as stout as it was earlier this decade.
So, why back the underdog? First and foremost, star RB Damion Fletcher.
The true soph has run for more than 1400 yards & scored 15 TDs in each of his
first 2 seasons! Second, QB Jeremy Young. Injuries have prevented him from
amassing an impressive statistical r?sum?, but, when healthy, the nimble
senior can move the chains. And the USM defense is no pushover, its veteran
DL backed by ubiquitous all-conf. jr. LB Gerald McRath (131 tackles) & stalwart
sr. CB Brandon Sumrall (5 ints.).
Scouts say the Golden Eagles are determined to send out Bower on a high
note. Cincy?s TO margin was +22 in its 9 wins, but -5 in its 3 losses. If USM
takes proper care of the rock, it should hang inside generous spread.
(04-Cincinnati +6 52-24...SR: EVEN 7-7
LAS VEGAS BOWL
UCLA (6-6) vs. BYU (10-2)
Saturday, December 22 Night at Las Vegas, NV (Field Turf)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Ucla 12 6-6 8-4 23 23 150 185 30-11-12 115 233 33-10-21 -3 .7 10.4
Byu 11 9-2 6-5 30 20 147 317 44-20-23 97 214 25-12-10 -9 .3 13.3
*Ucla 23 - Byu 22?
Plenty of angles to consider here, not the least of
which is UCLA?s in-limbo coaching situation after Karl Dorrell was dismissed
following the season-ending loss to USC. Defensive coordinator DeWayne
Walker will coach Bruins in what might amount to an audition for the job, one
for which BYU HC Bronco Mendenhall has also been mentioned as a
possible candidate. There?s also the ?Ben Olson factor,? as the oft-injured
UCLA QB began his career at BYU. And that Olson storyline was quite a
talking point before the first meeting between these two this season, when
Bruins escaped with a 27-17 win at Pasadena way back on September 8.
Not that prior matchups are always an indicator of the way things will proceed
in rematches, but a quick revisit of that earlier UCLA win is probably in order.
Bruins jumped on the Cougs quickly, roaring to 20-0 lead in 2nd Q, thanks in
part to a 56-yard interception return TD by CB Trey Brown. But Cougs
eventually began to take control of the game as BYU?s Arizona State transfer
QB Max Hall, making only his second start, pulled Cougs to within 20-17 in 4th
Q, and in position to level matters or perhaps take lead midway in 4th Q when
Hall fumbled the ball on a sack by UCLA DE Bruce Davis at the Bruin 19-yard
line. After subsequent change of possessions, UCLA marched 45 yards for the
clinching (and spread-covering) TD in the final minutes, a key pass interference
call keeping drive alive before Chris Markey salted the game away for Bruins
with 3-yard scoring run. BYU ended up with a sizeable advantage in total
offense (435-236), with Olson (only 126 YP) clearly outplayed by Hall, who
passed for 391 yards. Walker?s veteran UCLA ?D,? however, stuffed the Cougar
ground game (only 44 YR), and made the momentum-changing plays. Yet the
consensus opinion around the MWC and Pac-10 is that BYU improved
considerably after that defeat, while UCLA, battling a string of injuries, regressed.
But we?re intrigued by the possibility of a sell-out effort by the Bruins, not only
to wipe away the disappointments of their 6-6 season, but to perhaps give the
popular Walker the inside track on the permanent job. If UCLA can again keep
the BYU infantry in check, Hall will not find smooth sailing vs. the vet Bruin 2ndary.
And though UCLA?s ?O? remains choppy, the 3-week break since the USC game
should at least give QBs Olson and/or Patrick Cowan sufficient time to recover
from an assortment of injuries that slowed each in second half of campaign.
Remember, Bruins have been a righteous underdog since d.c. Walker arrived
LY (9-1 in role), and another kamikaze effort in their preferred role might be enough
to score minor upset...and perhaps give the HC job to players? choice Walker.
(07-UCLA 27-Byu 17...B.23-15 U.37/110 B.25/44 B.30/53/1/391 U.13/28/1/126 U.0 B.3)
(07-UCLA -8 27-17...SR: UCLA 7-1)
NEW MEXICO BOWL
NEVADA (6-6) at NEW MEXICO (8-4)
Saturday, Dec. 22 Day at Albuquerque, NM (Grass Field)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Nevada 11 5-6 5-6 35 34 217 264 49-23-24 169 252 47-24-19 -2 -1.6 17.7
N. MEX 11 7-4 4-7 22 22 126 218 24-11-12 131 218 28-9-16 -2 -.2 15.8
Nevada 31 - NEW MEXICO 29?
Granted, Ohio State-LSU this ain?t. And we
don?t think many last-minute Christmas shoppers are going to pause to take a
peek at this by-product of the expanded (bloated?) bowl season featuring WAC
and Mountain West also-rans in Albuquerque.
That?s a shame, because we?d bet they?ll be missing quite a show. It?s hard
to draw any other conclusions for games involving the thrill-a-minute Nevada
bunch that is a handful of plays from entering this contest with a 10-2 mark,
instead of a middling 6-6. The heart-stopping Wolf Pack also managed to
squeeze out three wins that weren?t decided until the game?s final play, so it?s
not much of a stretch to expect another white-knuckler at the foot of the
picturesque Sandia mountains.
The chess match that will draw the most attention is Chris Ault?s hybrid
Nevada Pistol attack against Rocky Long?s UNM 3-3-5 defense. But regional
insiders are hardly convinced the Lobos? unorthodox stop unit will prove the
proper recipe to slow Wolf Pack?s gunslinging RS frosh QB Colin Kaepernick,
who began to impact games in a near Vince Young-like fashion when taking
over for injured starter Nick Graziano in early October. In a little more than half
a season of full-time duty, Kaepernick has fired 19 TDP vs. only 3 picks, while
his long stride accounted for another 567 YR and 6 more TDs on the ground.
That mobility, along with the presence of slamming north-south RB Lippincott
(1380 YR and 15 TDs), will make Long think twice before unleashing his famous
blitz packages. And if Long is limited with his gambling tactics defensively, the
undersized Lobo stop unit might be vulnerable at the point of attack vs. another
big, physical ?Union? OL from Reno.
Defensively, the shaky Wolf Pack ?D,? exploited on more than one occasion
this season, became a bit more menacing when finally getting healthy down the
stretch. And this is not a dynamic UNM attack, with soph QB Donovan Porterie
blowing hot-and-cold most of the season. Big plays are hardly a staple of the latest version of the Lobo West Coast offense installed by 1styear
o.c. Dave Baldwin, featuring lots of short passes to WRs Marcus Smith &
Travis Brown (combined 155 catches) and between-the-tackles thrusts of RB
Rodney Ferguson (1177 YR, but only 4.0 ypc). Too often, UNM has had to turn
to the reliable toe of PK John Sullivan (26-29 FGs) for the bulk of its scoring.
Finally, it?s hard to overlook the Lobos? consistent failures in the postseason
under Long, who?s yet to win or cover a bowl game in 4 tries and is 4-9 as home
chalk since ?04. Given Nevada?s penchant for playing ?em close, a mild upset
would come as no surprise.
(DNP...SR: NEW MEXICO 1-0-1)
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
Cincinnati over Southern Miss by 4
Despite being forced out after 14 consecutive winning seasons,
Southern Miss head coach Jeff Bower will lead his Golden Eagles onto
the fi eld one fi nal time. Bower also brings along this super stat: 10-0
SUATS since 1999 when playing with rest after scoring 21 or fewer
points in the previous game. Taking the cash from Cincinnati coach
Brian Kelly has not been an easy task ? he?s 30-15-1 ATS for his career
and 15-2 ATS off a SU win of seven or more points. However, Big East
favorites of 7 or more points are just 4-9 ATS when taking on a bowl
foe off a win or loss of 20 or fewer points. In Jeff Bower's swan song,
we?ll take Southern Miss to win one for the Gipper.
LAS VEGAS BOWL
Byu over Ucla by 3
Despite leading the Bruins to four bowl games in four years, coach
Karl Dorrell was given the boot and DC DeWayne Walker will lead
Ucla in its season fi nale. Riddled with injuries all season long, the
Bruins? 25 seniors and 20 returning starters underachieved in a major
way. Our 2007 PLAYBOOK College Bowl Stat Report says not to
give up on the Angelenos here: Ucla stands 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS versus
MWC opponents and Pac 10 bowlers are a scorching 17-3 ATS as
dogs against a foe off a double-digit win. Byu lost earlier this year
in Pasadena, 27-17, as 8.5 point dogs and own a miserable 6-15 SU
& 5-25-2 ATS log off a win versus Pac 10 opponents. Toss in the fact
that the Bruins are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in this series and we cannot
justify the line in this game.
NEW MEXICO BOWL
NEW MEXICO over Nevada by 6
NU coach Chris Ault has proven to be a real ticket-casher when favored
(18-7) and but not so much as a dog (10-13). New Mexico owns some
bad bowl history of its own ? 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS the last 10 years ? but
two technical factors favor the host. First, teams off a win are 14-7
SUATS playing a bowl game on their home fi eld and, second, teams
returning to the same bowl here they lost SU the previous year are
a solid 13-5 ATS against foes off a double-digit win (6-0 if the host
is off an ATS win of 5 or more points). In a rare matchup of lupine
adversaries, the Albuquerque wolves look like the pack to back
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
Cincinnati over Southern Miss by 4
Despite being forced out after 14 consecutive winning seasons,
Southern Miss head coach Jeff Bower will lead his Golden Eagles onto
the fi eld one fi nal time. Bower also brings along this super stat: 10-0
SUATS since 1999 when playing with rest after scoring 21 or fewer
points in the previous game. Taking the cash from Cincinnati coach
Brian Kelly has not been an easy task ? he?s 30-15-1 ATS for his career
and 15-2 ATS off a SU win of seven or more points. However, Big East
favorites of 7 or more points are just 4-9 ATS when taking on a bowl
foe off a win or loss of 20 or fewer points. In Jeff Bower's swan song,
we?ll take Southern Miss to win one for the Gipper.
LAS VEGAS BOWL
Byu over Ucla by 3
Despite leading the Bruins to four bowl games in four years, coach
Karl Dorrell was given the boot and DC DeWayne Walker will lead
Ucla in its season fi nale. Riddled with injuries all season long, the
Bruins? 25 seniors and 20 returning starters underachieved in a major
way. Our 2007 PLAYBOOK College Bowl Stat Report says not to
give up on the Angelenos here: Ucla stands 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS versus
MWC opponents and Pac 10 bowlers are a scorching 17-3 ATS as
dogs against a foe off a double-digit win. Byu lost earlier this year
in Pasadena, 27-17, as 8.5 point dogs and own a miserable 6-15 SU
& 5-25-2 ATS log off a win versus Pac 10 opponents. Toss in the fact
that the Bruins are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in this series and we cannot
justify the line in this game.
NEW MEXICO BOWL
NEW MEXICO over Nevada by 6
NU coach Chris Ault has proven to be a real ticket-casher when favored
(18-7) and but not so much as a dog (10-13). New Mexico owns some
bad bowl history of its own ? 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS the last 10 years ? but
two technical factors favor the host. First, teams off a win are 14-7
SUATS playing a bowl game on their home fi eld and, second, teams
returning to the same bowl here they lost SU the previous year are
a solid 13-5 ATS against foes off a double-digit win (6-0 if the host
is off an ATS win of 5 or more points). In a rare matchup of lupine
adversaries, the Albuquerque wolves look like the pack to back
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
THE MAX
Papa John's Bowl @Birmingham, AL
December 22, 2007, 1PM EDT
Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati
Opening line: Cincinnati ?11, 56
Current line: Cincinnati -11, 56
Analysis by Dave Fobare
So how does a school reward a classy coach that
has given them 17 blemish-free seasons of service,
14 winning seasons in a row, and bowl invitations 10
of the last 11 seasons, including this one? If you're
Southern Mississippi Athletic Director Richard
Giannini you give Jeff Bower a pink slip. Or force
him to ?resign?. Oh, and make the poor lame duck
coach your team in the Papa John's bowl too.
Cincinnati coach Brian Kelly finishes his first season
with the Bearcats in a completely different position.
The team is 9-3 entering this game with a chance to
garner a 10th win for just the second time in school
history. Virtually every statistical measurement of
football success improved in 2007. At the end of the
2006 season Cincinnati lost coach Mark Dantonio to
East Lansing and Michigan State. Considering the
outcome the Bearcats' athletic director ought to be
sending a case of champagne to the Spartans.
Kelly's name is now regularly associated with major
coaching vacancies, though he didn?t get traction for
the Michigan job as some expected.
Its tempting to be sentimental and convince yourself
that Jeff Bower's kids will make this game a
successful tribute to their zinged coach. And after all
big dogs are a long-term success as a bowl betting
proposition. But I think that is the wrong view of this
game. However unfairly, Bower's moment is over,
and it is a completely different dynamic on the other
sideline.
After twelve long years building one of the best
small college programs in the country, UC coach
Brian Kelly is a man in a big hurry. It took just three
seasons at Central Michigan to win a conference title
and get himself a promotion to a bigger conference.
Kelly's career is still on an upward arc and he wants
a bigger spotlight. I have numbers to back this up
too. My statistical model rates Cincinnati an 11 point
favorite, and when the same engine is fed raw
scoring margins instead of yards per play numbers
the margin is 23 points. While not a bully, Brian
Kelly has shown little compassion when facing
inferior opponents. The Golden Eagles qualify on
that count, and it would be a mistake to allow
emotion and previous bowl history favoring big dogs
to ignore that fact. With the motivation and
intangibles favoring one side but the number
favoring the other, the recommendation is to pass
this one in favor of better opportunities on the bowl
slate.
New Mexico Bowl @Albuquerque, NM
December 22, 2007, 4:30PM EST
Nevada vs. New Mexico
Opening line: New Mexico ?3, 63
Current line: New Mexico -3, 59
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
This bowl, like similar western bowls in Boise, San
Jose, and Honolulu, is in business to give local
teams a venue when they become bowl eligible. And
as a result, the Lobos are playing on their home field
here. They hosted the initial New Mexico Bowl last
season and it was not successful, as the San Jose
State Spartans beat them 20-12 thanks to a 4-0
turnover edge. In his tenth year at UNM, Rocky
Long has New Mexico in a bowl game for the fifth
time (all in the last six years). The lack of success
has been notable in the previous four. New Mexico
has gone 0-4 both straight up and to the number in
previous bowls, failing to cover those games by a
total of 71 points. Rocky Long is not an example of
a coach who has shown he can get his team ready
for a bowl game.
Nevada was more successful against the better
teams from their conference. They lost to Fresno by
8 despite a 702-475 yardage advantage, then lost to
top WAC entrants Boise State and Hawaii by 2
points each, with the Boise loss being a multiple OT
affair on the Smurf Turf. New Mexico didn?t fare as
well against the better teams on their schedule. The
Lobos were 1-3 straight up, 0-4 to the spread vs.
BYU, Air Force, TCU, and Utah, failing to cover those
pointspreads by a combined 48 points. Showing
how different these two teams did against their
toughest competition, Nevada?s average yardage
result against bowlers was +52, UNM?s was ?87.
After the productive Nick Graziano got hurt,
Nevada?s Colin Kaepernick, a redshirt freshman, was
very successful in Chris Ault?s tough to defend
?pistol? offense. Taking over in midseason, he had
19 TD?s to only 3 interceptions, and ran for more
than 6 yards per carry. Kaepernick will prove tough
to defend for a Lobo defense that only faced a
single dual threat quarterback, Air Force?s Shaun
Carney. But Air Force is a different animal, throwing
out of option sets, and there was no dropback
quarterback in the Mountain West capable of picking
apart a defense with his arm while being able to run
as effectively as Kaepernick, as the MWC was full of
QB?s who run for less than 3 yards per attempt. It
will be tough for the Lobos to replicate the skills of
this mobile, strong-armed weapon in practice.
Aware that bowl teams tend to do well close to
home, but the Lobos didn?t play well here last year
and how much of a reward is it to stay at home for
the second year in a row? Take the points with the
better team. New Mexico by 4.
Las Vegas Bowl @ Las Vegas, NV
December 22, 2007, 8:00 PM EST
UCLA vs. BYU
Opening Line: BYU -4?, 46.5
Current Line: BYU?5, 47
Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Bronco Mendenhall has taken his place as one of the
truly bright young coaches in the game of college
football. He has now led his team to back-to-back
undefeated seasons in a pretty good Mountain West
conference, with some graduation losses in
between. Mendenhall can coach and develop talent.
QB Max Hall replaced Beck admirably, and although
they weren?t quite as dominant on the scoreboard
this season (last year?s team won by an average
score of 37-14, this year?s team by an average of
31-19), they were comparable statistically. They
have amazingly outyarded 24 of their last 25
opponents, no small feat considering the MWC is
probably the best of the non-BCS conferences, and
they have played some tough competition out of
conference. BYU lost to UCLA already this year, a
27-17 inside-out job in LA in QB Max Hall?s first road
start. The Cougars outyarded the Bruins by 200
yards but were ?3 in turnovers, one that resulted in
a UCLA defensive TD. Revenge may overcome the
routine of bowling here for the third straight year.
UCLA will be coached by defensive coordinator
Dewayne Walker for this game, and a lot of the
players would supposedly like Walker to be
promoted to Head Coach, replacing his former boss
Karl Dorrell who was axed immediately following the
USC loss. Walker has done a very good job with the
defense in his two seasons as DC, especially this
year, as his troops held foes to 4.6 yards per play, a
number that barely budged in conference play
against some good Pac-10 offenses. The defense is
definitely the team?s strength, and they could put
forth a big effort here to make a case for their
leader. This team has been bitten hard by the injury
bug all season, but will be as healthy as they have
since midseason.
Mendenhall a solid coaching edge in this game, and
although UCLA gets some players back for this, it
must be noted that they were relatively healthy
when they were outplayed, yet managed to squeak
by in Week 2 vs. the Cougars. This UCLA team lost
5 of their last 7 down the stretch, with the two wins
coming in very good technical spots for them against
Cal off of their 1st loss of the season, and over an
Oregon team that was emotionally and physically beat up
after losing Dennis Dixon and their chance for a National
Championship. I lean towards the well-coached Cougars
getting their revenge here, however, but Mendenhall has
spoken out about his team not being considered for a BCS
game. If his players are that disappointed, they could
come out flat here. That, along with the upward line
movement, and a need to see that UCLA injury report,
keeps me leaning for now. BYU by 8
THE MAX
Papa John's Bowl @Birmingham, AL
December 22, 2007, 1PM EDT
Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati
Opening line: Cincinnati ?11, 56
Current line: Cincinnati -11, 56
Analysis by Dave Fobare
So how does a school reward a classy coach that
has given them 17 blemish-free seasons of service,
14 winning seasons in a row, and bowl invitations 10
of the last 11 seasons, including this one? If you're
Southern Mississippi Athletic Director Richard
Giannini you give Jeff Bower a pink slip. Or force
him to ?resign?. Oh, and make the poor lame duck
coach your team in the Papa John's bowl too.
Cincinnati coach Brian Kelly finishes his first season
with the Bearcats in a completely different position.
The team is 9-3 entering this game with a chance to
garner a 10th win for just the second time in school
history. Virtually every statistical measurement of
football success improved in 2007. At the end of the
2006 season Cincinnati lost coach Mark Dantonio to
East Lansing and Michigan State. Considering the
outcome the Bearcats' athletic director ought to be
sending a case of champagne to the Spartans.
Kelly's name is now regularly associated with major
coaching vacancies, though he didn?t get traction for
the Michigan job as some expected.
Its tempting to be sentimental and convince yourself
that Jeff Bower's kids will make this game a
successful tribute to their zinged coach. And after all
big dogs are a long-term success as a bowl betting
proposition. But I think that is the wrong view of this
game. However unfairly, Bower's moment is over,
and it is a completely different dynamic on the other
sideline.
After twelve long years building one of the best
small college programs in the country, UC coach
Brian Kelly is a man in a big hurry. It took just three
seasons at Central Michigan to win a conference title
and get himself a promotion to a bigger conference.
Kelly's career is still on an upward arc and he wants
a bigger spotlight. I have numbers to back this up
too. My statistical model rates Cincinnati an 11 point
favorite, and when the same engine is fed raw
scoring margins instead of yards per play numbers
the margin is 23 points. While not a bully, Brian
Kelly has shown little compassion when facing
inferior opponents. The Golden Eagles qualify on
that count, and it would be a mistake to allow
emotion and previous bowl history favoring big dogs
to ignore that fact. With the motivation and
intangibles favoring one side but the number
favoring the other, the recommendation is to pass
this one in favor of better opportunities on the bowl
slate.
New Mexico Bowl @Albuquerque, NM
December 22, 2007, 4:30PM EST
Nevada vs. New Mexico
Opening line: New Mexico ?3, 63
Current line: New Mexico -3, 59
Analysis by Kevin O?Neill
This bowl, like similar western bowls in Boise, San
Jose, and Honolulu, is in business to give local
teams a venue when they become bowl eligible. And
as a result, the Lobos are playing on their home field
here. They hosted the initial New Mexico Bowl last
season and it was not successful, as the San Jose
State Spartans beat them 20-12 thanks to a 4-0
turnover edge. In his tenth year at UNM, Rocky
Long has New Mexico in a bowl game for the fifth
time (all in the last six years). The lack of success
has been notable in the previous four. New Mexico
has gone 0-4 both straight up and to the number in
previous bowls, failing to cover those games by a
total of 71 points. Rocky Long is not an example of
a coach who has shown he can get his team ready
for a bowl game.
Nevada was more successful against the better
teams from their conference. They lost to Fresno by
8 despite a 702-475 yardage advantage, then lost to
top WAC entrants Boise State and Hawaii by 2
points each, with the Boise loss being a multiple OT
affair on the Smurf Turf. New Mexico didn?t fare as
well against the better teams on their schedule. The
Lobos were 1-3 straight up, 0-4 to the spread vs.
BYU, Air Force, TCU, and Utah, failing to cover those
pointspreads by a combined 48 points. Showing
how different these two teams did against their
toughest competition, Nevada?s average yardage
result against bowlers was +52, UNM?s was ?87.
After the productive Nick Graziano got hurt,
Nevada?s Colin Kaepernick, a redshirt freshman, was
very successful in Chris Ault?s tough to defend
?pistol? offense. Taking over in midseason, he had
19 TD?s to only 3 interceptions, and ran for more
than 6 yards per carry. Kaepernick will prove tough
to defend for a Lobo defense that only faced a
single dual threat quarterback, Air Force?s Shaun
Carney. But Air Force is a different animal, throwing
out of option sets, and there was no dropback
quarterback in the Mountain West capable of picking
apart a defense with his arm while being able to run
as effectively as Kaepernick, as the MWC was full of
QB?s who run for less than 3 yards per attempt. It
will be tough for the Lobos to replicate the skills of
this mobile, strong-armed weapon in practice.
Aware that bowl teams tend to do well close to
home, but the Lobos didn?t play well here last year
and how much of a reward is it to stay at home for
the second year in a row? Take the points with the
better team. New Mexico by 4.
Las Vegas Bowl @ Las Vegas, NV
December 22, 2007, 8:00 PM EST
UCLA vs. BYU
Opening Line: BYU -4?, 46.5
Current Line: BYU?5, 47
Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Bronco Mendenhall has taken his place as one of the
truly bright young coaches in the game of college
football. He has now led his team to back-to-back
undefeated seasons in a pretty good Mountain West
conference, with some graduation losses in
between. Mendenhall can coach and develop talent.
QB Max Hall replaced Beck admirably, and although
they weren?t quite as dominant on the scoreboard
this season (last year?s team won by an average
score of 37-14, this year?s team by an average of
31-19), they were comparable statistically. They
have amazingly outyarded 24 of their last 25
opponents, no small feat considering the MWC is
probably the best of the non-BCS conferences, and
they have played some tough competition out of
conference. BYU lost to UCLA already this year, a
27-17 inside-out job in LA in QB Max Hall?s first road
start. The Cougars outyarded the Bruins by 200
yards but were ?3 in turnovers, one that resulted in
a UCLA defensive TD. Revenge may overcome the
routine of bowling here for the third straight year.
UCLA will be coached by defensive coordinator
Dewayne Walker for this game, and a lot of the
players would supposedly like Walker to be
promoted to Head Coach, replacing his former boss
Karl Dorrell who was axed immediately following the
USC loss. Walker has done a very good job with the
defense in his two seasons as DC, especially this
year, as his troops held foes to 4.6 yards per play, a
number that barely budged in conference play
against some good Pac-10 offenses. The defense is
definitely the team?s strength, and they could put
forth a big effort here to make a case for their
leader. This team has been bitten hard by the injury
bug all season, but will be as healthy as they have
since midseason.
Mendenhall a solid coaching edge in this game, and
although UCLA gets some players back for this, it
must be noted that they were relatively healthy
when they were outplayed, yet managed to squeak
by in Week 2 vs. the Cougars. This UCLA team lost
5 of their last 7 down the stretch, with the two wins
coming in very good technical spots for them against
Cal off of their 1st loss of the season, and over an
Oregon team that was emotionally and physically beat up
after losing Dennis Dixon and their chance for a National
Championship. I lean towards the well-coached Cougars
getting their revenge here, however, but Mendenhall has
spoken out about his team not being considered for a BCS
game. If his players are that disappointed, they could
come out flat here. That, along with the upward line
movement, and a need to see that UCLA injury report,
keeps me leaning for now. BYU by 8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF - FOOTBALL---
11 SOUTHERN MISS over Cincinnati
Late Score Forecast:
SOUTHERN MISS 28 - Cincinnati 24
Papajohns.com Bowl
at Birmingham, Alabama
(Saturday, December 22, 2007)
Acknowledge Cincy firepower (35 ppg) and HC Kelly?s extended pointspread success (26-8-3 vs. line since ?05
with CMU & Bearcats). And USM?s erratic performance pattern certainly made it a bit tricky to pick the right spots
with Golden Eagles in ?07, with that inconsistency one of the reasons HC Jeff Bower was not-so-gently nudged
out the door after 17 seasons on the job. But Golden Eagles can be dangerous when both RB Fletcher (1431 YR)
and QB Young (healthy again) on field, and an expected kamikaze effort for the popular Bower (who will coach
this bowl) places USM firmly in the ?live? category. Success of bigger bowl dogs (46-21 getting 7 or more since
2000!) also hard to ignore.
10 NEVADA over *New Mexico
Late Score Forecast:
NEVADA 31 - *New Mexico 26
New Mexico Bowl
at Albuquerque, New Mexico
(Saturday, December 22, 2007)
Respected CKO insiders report New Mexico mentor Rocky Long has secretly sought out coaches around the
country to help him prepare for this bowl. Long has gone 0-4 in postseason games, suffering upsets in the past
two (San Jose State won in Albuquerque LY!). Doubt the outside advice reverses the trend vs. dangerous
Nevada (35 ppg; lost to Boise & Hawaii by combined 4 pts.!) which owns the superior QB in gifted 6-6 frosh QB
Kaepernick (19 TDs, just 3 ints., 567 YR, 6 TDs). Look for swift, long-striding 6-6 Kaepernick & north-south RB
Lippincott (1380 YR, 15 TDs) to do plenty of business vs. an undersized NM front 6 (Lobos play 3-3-5). Lobos
just 4-9 as home chalk since ?04; Nevada is 7-3 last 10 as a dog.
--CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF - FOOTBALL---
11 SOUTHERN MISS over Cincinnati
Late Score Forecast:
SOUTHERN MISS 28 - Cincinnati 24
Papajohns.com Bowl
at Birmingham, Alabama
(Saturday, December 22, 2007)
Acknowledge Cincy firepower (35 ppg) and HC Kelly?s extended pointspread success (26-8-3 vs. line since ?05
with CMU & Bearcats). And USM?s erratic performance pattern certainly made it a bit tricky to pick the right spots
with Golden Eagles in ?07, with that inconsistency one of the reasons HC Jeff Bower was not-so-gently nudged
out the door after 17 seasons on the job. But Golden Eagles can be dangerous when both RB Fletcher (1431 YR)
and QB Young (healthy again) on field, and an expected kamikaze effort for the popular Bower (who will coach
this bowl) places USM firmly in the ?live? category. Success of bigger bowl dogs (46-21 getting 7 or more since
2000!) also hard to ignore.
10 NEVADA over *New Mexico
Late Score Forecast:
NEVADA 31 - *New Mexico 26
New Mexico Bowl
at Albuquerque, New Mexico
(Saturday, December 22, 2007)
Respected CKO insiders report New Mexico mentor Rocky Long has secretly sought out coaches around the
country to help him prepare for this bowl. Long has gone 0-4 in postseason games, suffering upsets in the past
two (San Jose State won in Albuquerque LY!). Doubt the outside advice reverses the trend vs. dangerous
Nevada (35 ppg; lost to Boise & Hawaii by combined 4 pts.!) which owns the superior QB in gifted 6-6 frosh QB
Kaepernick (19 TDs, just 3 ints., 567 YR, 6 TDs). Look for swift, long-striding 6-6 Kaepernick & north-south RB
Lippincott (1380 YR, 15 TDs) to do plenty of business vs. an undersized NM front 6 (Lobos play 3-3-5). Lobos
just 4-9 as home chalk since ?04; Nevada is 7-3 last 10 as a dog.
SPORTS MEMO - COLLEGE BOWLS
Southern Miss +11 vs. Cincinnati O/U 56 Recommendation: Southern Miss
Saturday, December 22, 1 pm EST (ESPN2) Birmingham, Ala.
There will be plenty of emotions for the Southern Mississippi
Golden Eagles when they take the field in this bowl outing against
Cincinnati. Jeff Bower will coach his final game for Southern
Miss after nearly three decades with the program as a player
and coach. His 17-year tenure has included four C-USA titles
and nine previous bowl appearances. The USM seniors will have
some additional motivation after being humbled by Cincinnati in
the last meeting between the two squads in 2004. On offense,
the Eagles will look to establish their sound running game (22nd
in the nation in rushing offense). Sophomore standout running
back Damion Fletcher delivered his second straight 1,000-yard
campaign with 15 touchdown runs. His stellar season included
eight 100-yard rushing games. The defense is a solid group at
38th in the country in scoring defense. This unit will face a big
challenge against one of the better offenses in the nation. Cincinnati
features a balanced attack that is ranked 14th in the
country in scoring offense. Wake Forest transfer quarterback
Ben Mauk thrived in his first year with the Bearcats program
by firing 27 touchdowns with just six interceptions. Freshman
wideout Marcus Barnett quickly became an impact performer
with 60 receptions and 13 touchdown catches. While the running
game is average without a dominant back, Butler Benton and
Greg Moore have combined to average over five yards per carry.
The defense has been forged into an opportunistic group under
first-year head coach Brian Kelly. The club is tied for the national
lead in interceptions with 23 and is third in turnover margin.
Defensive back Mike Mickens is second in the country with hissix thefts for UC. The Bearcats defense is a group that has been
able to stop the run this season (15th in the nation in rushing
defense). Kelly?s impact as a coach can?t be ignored when handicapping
this contest. In his final season at Central Michigan,
Kelly went 10-2-1 ATS. He has followed that up with an 8-3 ATS
record in his first year with Cincy for a remarkable 18-5-1 pointspread
record in the last two years. Another potential edge for
the Bearcats lies in their impressive record against top caliber
foes this season. Cincinnati?s impressive resume includes wins
over Oregon State, Rutgers, South Florida, and Connecticut. In
their only two games against opponents of Cincinnati?s level,
Southern Miss lost by 20-plus points to Tennessee and Boise
State. However, this group of Eagles has been able to bring max
efforts in bowl games with three straight victories in the postseason.
While Cincinnati will have a talent edge, the Eagles are
clearly in a spot to bring their best effort in Bower?s finale. The
club?s ability to run the ball with Fletcher can limit turnovers
against Cincy?s dangerous defense while keeping Mauk and
the Bearcats offense on the sideline. Bower?s club keeps this
one close as an era comes to an end at Southern Mississippi.
Nevada vs. New Mexico -2.5 O/U 61 Recommendation: New Mexico
Saturday, December 22, 4:30 pm EST (ESPN) Albuquerque, N.M.
The Pistol Offense of Nevada developed into a feared attack over the
course of the season. Head Coach Chris Ault faced a huge rebuilding
season on the offensive side with a new signal caller and both their
leading rusher and receiver lost to graduation. Throw in a couple
of losses on the front line and it was expected to be a struggle. Yet
over the campaign, they averaged 489 yards and 36 points per
game. They were competitive against both Hawaii and Boise State,
losing to both by only two points. While the Wolfpack is typically
perceived as a high flying passing attack, the offense was quite balanced
and extremely effective with the running game. Eight times
they ran for more than 200 yards and in three of those games they
topped 300 rushing yards. Led by running back Luke Lippincott and
accentuated by quarterback Colin Kaepernick, Nevada averaged
225-plus yards per game on the ground behind a stellar 5.43 Accu-
Stats yards per rush. Yet as strong of a showing Nevada presented
on the offensive side, the defensive performance was conversely
as weak. According to our Accu-Stats numbers Nevada allowed the
opposition 5.27 yards per rush and 6.6 yards per pass. Adjusted for
strength of schedule no other bowl team allowed worse numbers
on the defensive side. However the question of whether those deficiencies
will even matter against an anemic New Mexico offense
must be addressed. Averaging just 3.81 yards per rush they have
the weakest rushing attack of any bowl team. With a marginal pass
offense and a soft overall schedule this unit is not feared. They are
not explosive and the results both in margin and against-the-spread
illustrate the trapping of laying points. Only three times against
FBS competition did New Mexico win by more than three. Eight of New Mexico?s 12 games resulted in a straight up loss or a victory by
three or less. With an All-American kicker, John Sullivan, the Lobos
seemingly play a conservative style and play for field position and
field goals. Sullivan ended the season making 24 of his last 25 attempts
while averaging more than two made field goals per game.
Of New Mexico?s eight wins, four were determined by one of his field
goals. The overall weak power rankings of these two teams and their
conference affiliation present a pretty even match-up on the field.
Neither the WAC nor the Mountain West would be regarded as a top
conference. Although the teams at the pinnacle of each are solid,
the quality of the second division entrants significantly diminished
the week-to-week efforts needed to compete and earn a winning
record. The hidden advantage of this game may be the home field
as this game will be played in Albuquerque. Straight up in home
games New Mexico was 5-1 and in road games Nevada was just 2-4.
Obviously, line value comes into play here as the current number
dealt by several shops is New Mexico -2.5 while several others have
New Mexico -3. For purposes of this write up we are using -2.5 and
would recommend a play based on that line only. As always, nothing
is more important than to shop and get the best of the number
UCLA vs. BYU -6 O/U 47 Recommendation: Under
BYU views Sam Boyd Stadium as their second home field. There
is a surprisingly large Mormon community in Las Vegas, and BYU
always draws extremely well when their teams play in Sin City. The
Cougars have owned this field in recent seasons, including a 38-8
victory over Oregon in this bowl game last year as well as 55-14
and 24-14 wins over UNLV in their last two trips here to face the
Rebels. Having played here repeatedly in recent seasons, we can
expect the Cougars to be able to avoid the distractions of Las Vegas
far more than their counterparts on the UCLA sidelines. This
is a rematch of a regular season game played back in early September.
UCLA came away with a 27-17 win in Los Angeles on that
day, but they certainly didn?t get any style points for their level of
play. The Bruins were outgained by 200 yards, but a key interception
return touchdown spoiled a 391-yard passing day from BYU
quarterback Max Hall. UCLA won?t have head coach Karl Dorrell,
who was unceremoniously dismissed following the Bruins disappointing
1-4 finish to the season. Defensive coordinator Dewayne
Walker will coach the Bruins for their trip to Las Vegas. The key
question is whether Walker will be able to motivate a group that
was manhandled by USC in a 24-7 loss on the final day of the
regular season, in spite of having a chance to play for the PAC-
10 Championship and a Rose Bowl bid. The Bruins were flat on
their last trip to the Las Vegas Bowl following a 7-5 campaign
back in 2002, but much like in their earlier matchup with BYU,
a key interception return touchdown changed the momentum in
their favor in a 27-13 win and cover against New Mexico. This time
around, UCLA has all kinds of offensive woes. The Bruins were down to their fourth string quarterback at one point this year,
and neither starter Ben Olson nor backup Patrick Cowan were
100% healthy for their season finale against the Trojans. With
leading rusher Khalil Bell lost for the season, the Bruins relied on
their less explosive option late in the season, running back Chris
Markey. UCLA scored a touchdown or less in four different games
this year, and lost 44-6 at Mountain West heavyweight Utah, so
it?s hard to predict a strong offensive showing against a BYU defense
that held opponents under 19 points per game this season.
The bigger question is whether Bronco Mendenhall?s Cougars will
be able to have more offensive success against UCLA the second
time around. That was the only game all season in which
BYU didn?t produce more than 100 net rushing yards. Freshman
back Harvey Unga gained more than 1,200 yards on the ground
for the Cougars, averaging just shy of 5.5 yards per carry. Unga
had only five carries in the first meeting, but he had at least
20 carries in eight of the Cougars last eleven games. If Walker
is going to coach his team to victory (or at least a pointspread
cover) in the Las Vegas Bowl, the Bruins ability to contain Unga
and keep the BYU offense one dimensional will be paramount.
Southern Miss +11 vs. Cincinnati O/U 56 Recommendation: Southern Miss
Saturday, December 22, 1 pm EST (ESPN2) Birmingham, Ala.
There will be plenty of emotions for the Southern Mississippi
Golden Eagles when they take the field in this bowl outing against
Cincinnati. Jeff Bower will coach his final game for Southern
Miss after nearly three decades with the program as a player
and coach. His 17-year tenure has included four C-USA titles
and nine previous bowl appearances. The USM seniors will have
some additional motivation after being humbled by Cincinnati in
the last meeting between the two squads in 2004. On offense,
the Eagles will look to establish their sound running game (22nd
in the nation in rushing offense). Sophomore standout running
back Damion Fletcher delivered his second straight 1,000-yard
campaign with 15 touchdown runs. His stellar season included
eight 100-yard rushing games. The defense is a solid group at
38th in the country in scoring defense. This unit will face a big
challenge against one of the better offenses in the nation. Cincinnati
features a balanced attack that is ranked 14th in the
country in scoring offense. Wake Forest transfer quarterback
Ben Mauk thrived in his first year with the Bearcats program
by firing 27 touchdowns with just six interceptions. Freshman
wideout Marcus Barnett quickly became an impact performer
with 60 receptions and 13 touchdown catches. While the running
game is average without a dominant back, Butler Benton and
Greg Moore have combined to average over five yards per carry.
The defense has been forged into an opportunistic group under
first-year head coach Brian Kelly. The club is tied for the national
lead in interceptions with 23 and is third in turnover margin.
Defensive back Mike Mickens is second in the country with hissix thefts for UC. The Bearcats defense is a group that has been
able to stop the run this season (15th in the nation in rushing
defense). Kelly?s impact as a coach can?t be ignored when handicapping
this contest. In his final season at Central Michigan,
Kelly went 10-2-1 ATS. He has followed that up with an 8-3 ATS
record in his first year with Cincy for a remarkable 18-5-1 pointspread
record in the last two years. Another potential edge for
the Bearcats lies in their impressive record against top caliber
foes this season. Cincinnati?s impressive resume includes wins
over Oregon State, Rutgers, South Florida, and Connecticut. In
their only two games against opponents of Cincinnati?s level,
Southern Miss lost by 20-plus points to Tennessee and Boise
State. However, this group of Eagles has been able to bring max
efforts in bowl games with three straight victories in the postseason.
While Cincinnati will have a talent edge, the Eagles are
clearly in a spot to bring their best effort in Bower?s finale. The
club?s ability to run the ball with Fletcher can limit turnovers
against Cincy?s dangerous defense while keeping Mauk and
the Bearcats offense on the sideline. Bower?s club keeps this
one close as an era comes to an end at Southern Mississippi.
Nevada vs. New Mexico -2.5 O/U 61 Recommendation: New Mexico
Saturday, December 22, 4:30 pm EST (ESPN) Albuquerque, N.M.
The Pistol Offense of Nevada developed into a feared attack over the
course of the season. Head Coach Chris Ault faced a huge rebuilding
season on the offensive side with a new signal caller and both their
leading rusher and receiver lost to graduation. Throw in a couple
of losses on the front line and it was expected to be a struggle. Yet
over the campaign, they averaged 489 yards and 36 points per
game. They were competitive against both Hawaii and Boise State,
losing to both by only two points. While the Wolfpack is typically
perceived as a high flying passing attack, the offense was quite balanced
and extremely effective with the running game. Eight times
they ran for more than 200 yards and in three of those games they
topped 300 rushing yards. Led by running back Luke Lippincott and
accentuated by quarterback Colin Kaepernick, Nevada averaged
225-plus yards per game on the ground behind a stellar 5.43 Accu-
Stats yards per rush. Yet as strong of a showing Nevada presented
on the offensive side, the defensive performance was conversely
as weak. According to our Accu-Stats numbers Nevada allowed the
opposition 5.27 yards per rush and 6.6 yards per pass. Adjusted for
strength of schedule no other bowl team allowed worse numbers
on the defensive side. However the question of whether those deficiencies
will even matter against an anemic New Mexico offense
must be addressed. Averaging just 3.81 yards per rush they have
the weakest rushing attack of any bowl team. With a marginal pass
offense and a soft overall schedule this unit is not feared. They are
not explosive and the results both in margin and against-the-spread
illustrate the trapping of laying points. Only three times against
FBS competition did New Mexico win by more than three. Eight of New Mexico?s 12 games resulted in a straight up loss or a victory by
three or less. With an All-American kicker, John Sullivan, the Lobos
seemingly play a conservative style and play for field position and
field goals. Sullivan ended the season making 24 of his last 25 attempts
while averaging more than two made field goals per game.
Of New Mexico?s eight wins, four were determined by one of his field
goals. The overall weak power rankings of these two teams and their
conference affiliation present a pretty even match-up on the field.
Neither the WAC nor the Mountain West would be regarded as a top
conference. Although the teams at the pinnacle of each are solid,
the quality of the second division entrants significantly diminished
the week-to-week efforts needed to compete and earn a winning
record. The hidden advantage of this game may be the home field
as this game will be played in Albuquerque. Straight up in home
games New Mexico was 5-1 and in road games Nevada was just 2-4.
Obviously, line value comes into play here as the current number
dealt by several shops is New Mexico -2.5 while several others have
New Mexico -3. For purposes of this write up we are using -2.5 and
would recommend a play based on that line only. As always, nothing
is more important than to shop and get the best of the number
UCLA vs. BYU -6 O/U 47 Recommendation: Under
BYU views Sam Boyd Stadium as their second home field. There
is a surprisingly large Mormon community in Las Vegas, and BYU
always draws extremely well when their teams play in Sin City. The
Cougars have owned this field in recent seasons, including a 38-8
victory over Oregon in this bowl game last year as well as 55-14
and 24-14 wins over UNLV in their last two trips here to face the
Rebels. Having played here repeatedly in recent seasons, we can
expect the Cougars to be able to avoid the distractions of Las Vegas
far more than their counterparts on the UCLA sidelines. This
is a rematch of a regular season game played back in early September.
UCLA came away with a 27-17 win in Los Angeles on that
day, but they certainly didn?t get any style points for their level of
play. The Bruins were outgained by 200 yards, but a key interception
return touchdown spoiled a 391-yard passing day from BYU
quarterback Max Hall. UCLA won?t have head coach Karl Dorrell,
who was unceremoniously dismissed following the Bruins disappointing
1-4 finish to the season. Defensive coordinator Dewayne
Walker will coach the Bruins for their trip to Las Vegas. The key
question is whether Walker will be able to motivate a group that
was manhandled by USC in a 24-7 loss on the final day of the
regular season, in spite of having a chance to play for the PAC-
10 Championship and a Rose Bowl bid. The Bruins were flat on
their last trip to the Las Vegas Bowl following a 7-5 campaign
back in 2002, but much like in their earlier matchup with BYU,
a key interception return touchdown changed the momentum in
their favor in a 27-13 win and cover against New Mexico. This time
around, UCLA has all kinds of offensive woes. The Bruins were down to their fourth string quarterback at one point this year,
and neither starter Ben Olson nor backup Patrick Cowan were
100% healthy for their season finale against the Trojans. With
leading rusher Khalil Bell lost for the season, the Bruins relied on
their less explosive option late in the season, running back Chris
Markey. UCLA scored a touchdown or less in four different games
this year, and lost 44-6 at Mountain West heavyweight Utah, so
it?s hard to predict a strong offensive showing against a BYU defense
that held opponents under 19 points per game this season.
The bigger question is whether Bronco Mendenhall?s Cougars will
be able to have more offensive success against UCLA the second
time around. That was the only game all season in which
BYU didn?t produce more than 100 net rushing yards. Freshman
back Harvey Unga gained more than 1,200 yards on the ground
for the Cougars, averaging just shy of 5.5 yards per carry. Unga
had only five carries in the first meeting, but he had at least
20 carries in eight of the Cougars last eleven games. If Walker
is going to coach his team to victory (or at least a pointspread
cover) in the Las Vegas Bowl, the Bruins ability to contain Unga
and keep the BYU offense one dimensional will be paramount.
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEPS: BOWLS
S MISSISSIPPI (7-5) CINCINNATI (9-3)
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
This is the 15th (7-7) meeting all-time between these 2 as Cincy used to be in CUSA before leaving
for the BE in ?05. In the last meeting in ?04 Cincy won 52-24 as they outgained SM 430-331 and were
+4 in TO?s. HC Jeff Bower has had 14 straight winning seasons and has taken S Miss to bowls in 10 of
11 years. Bower was let go after the ssn finale (new HC Fedora is OkSt?s OC) but will coach here. This
is the 6th straight bowl for SM going 3-2 SU & 2-2-1 ATS incl LY?s 28-7 win at the GMAC (won L/3). This
is Cincy?s 2nd straight, 6th in 8 years & the 9th bowl in school history. Kelly was hired LY with Dantonio
departing & coached Cincy in the International Bowl, a 27-24 win over W Michigan. Several milestones
were set TY incl their 9th win (1st time S/?53), finishing the ssn ranked with 3 sellouts at Nippert Stadium
(most in school history). Kelly was named the BE Coach of the Year and while this is only his 2nd bowl,
he did lead Div II Grand Valley State to two National Titles. The Cats played 6 bowl caliber teams this
year (4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS) including a loss to then-#5 WV 28-23. They have outscored those opponents
29-20 but were outgained 385-383. SM played 2 teams that were in the Top 25 at some point TY (Tenn
& Boise) losing both SU & ATS by a combined 42 points & played 5 bowl teams going 1-4 SU & ATS.
They were outgained 414-333 and outscored 32-21. SM is just 2-4 ATS on grass the L/2Y and 7-16-1
ATS as an AD (0-2 TY) while Cincy is 2-1 ATS on grass TY & 3-1 as an AF.
SM is not known for its offense (#91) but TY avg?d 394 ypg and 28 ppg which is the 2nd highest
S/?98. SM is led by senior QB Young who opened the season avg 199 ypg (54%) with a 4-2 ratio until
an inj vs Boise State and never really got into any rhythm since his return. RB Fletcher ranks #14 in
NCAA in rushing and has eight 100+ yd games. He became just the 3rd SM RB to have B2B 1,000 yd
seasons & also captured the Conerly Award for the top player in Mississippi. Watch for RB Easterling
(PS#17) as he played in only 1 game (burned RS) and is dynamic. The OL has paved the way for 200
rush ypg & 4.6 ypc both of which are highs under Bower allowing 18 sacks (5.2%). SM has always been
defined by their D (our #58) as the highest total they?ve allowed S/?94 is 25 ppg in 2004. The 24 ppg
allowed TY was a CUSA best as the conf had 8 teams allow over 30 ppg. SM, home of the non-BCS
LB U corps, had 3 straight CUSA D POY from 2003-?05 (Coley, Boley, Davis) and MLB McRath fits the
mold as he ranks #13 in NCAA avg 10.9 tpg. The SM secondary ranks #46 in our pass eff D (224 ypg,
57% 20-14 ratio) with CB Sumrall having 5 int while taking one to the house. SM?s ranks #32 in our
ST?s with P Barefoot ranking #24 in the NCAA in net P.
Cincy?s HC Kelly installed a new Coast to Coast offense to compliment an already stout defense,
spark fan interest and compete with the BE?s offensive powers. The result was a school record 441 pts
scored (#14 in NCAA). The Cats have our #25 rated offense with 37 ppg & 436 ypg. Bionic Ben Mauk
transferred from Wake after he suffered a horrific arm inj in LY?s season opener. He beat out Grutza, who
started 11 gms in ?06, but Grutza started 2 games early in the year including a BE POW effort vs Mia,
Oh. Mauk broke a school record throwing for 27 TD?s. Kelly?s fast paced offense features WR Barnett
who set school record with 13 TD rec?s. The OL thinned down (avg loss 25 lbs) to accommodate the
new offense and they avg 6?4? 294, paving the way for 154 ypg (4.1), all?g 20 sks (4.9%). The Cats have
an undersized athletic defense ranking #35 all?g 19 ppg, 371 ypg and #2 in NCAA with 39 TO?s gained.
The D-Line avg 6?2? 250, all?g 106 rush ypg (3.0) with 30 of UC?s 38 sks. They are led by Sr?s DE Hoke
(12 sks) & DT Byrd. The secondary is tied for #1 in the nation with 23 int led by AA CB Mickens & FS
Nakamura. UC has our #36 pass efficiency ranking allowing 265 ypg (60%) with a 13-23 ratio. Cincy
has our #31 ST?s led by the NCAA?s #1 punter in avg, Huber.
Southern Miss made a bizarre decision in letting HC Bower go. All he?s done is produce 14 straight
winning seasons and bowl appearances in 10 of 11 years. With that said it will be an emotional farewell
as this classy HC volunteered to stay on and coach this bowl after his release. Cincinnati meanwhile
lobbied for both the Sun Bowl & Car Care Bowl but because of limited ticket sales in past bowls they
ended up here. SM has 2 key additions on off (Easterling & Johnson back from inj) and a now-healthy
QB. The Eagles also have 16 Alabama kids on their roster which will turn this into a potential upset.
FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS (+) 24 Cincinnati 27 RATING: 3*
NEVADA (6-6) NEW MEXICO (8-4)
NEW MEXICOBOWL
Nevada was at a crossroads after 6 gms (2-4) but the players came together & made a pact to win
out & go to a bowl. While they didn?t win out, they did win 4 of their L/6 (losses by 5 pts comb) to get
to an unprecedented 3rd consec bowl. Since HC Ault?s return, he has guided UN to a record of 23-14
over the L/3Y. UN is 3-4 SU (1-3 ATS) in bowl gms & 1-3 SU (1-2 ATS) under Ault. The Pack?s L/5 bowl
gms have been decided by combined 9 pts with the L/2 by just 1 pt each. UN went 0-4 SU (3-1 ATS) vs
bowl caliber tms TY but 3 of 4 gms ended in heartbreaking fashion. New Mexico has not won in the post
season under HC Rocky Long (0-4 SU & ATS) but this group has a chance to win 9 gms & match ?97?s
tm (best L/25Y). The Lobos are disappointed as they were hoping their 8-4 record would vault them into
a higher MWC bowl. NM took on 4 bowl caliber tms & was 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS being outscored 31-17 &
outgained 354-267 (off avg?d just 95 ypg rush). The Lobos obviously have the home edge as this gm
is being played in their home stadium, but they are hoping to draw more than the 34,111 that showed
up LY (SJSt brought approx 2,500-3,000). Long has devoted all of his bowl practice to preparing for UN
(as opposed to working in younger guys) saying, ?I haven?t seen them, except on TV. They look pretty
darn good on TV.? Both tms took on NMSt & UNLV with NM 2-0 ATS outscoring them 36-20 & outgaining
them 439-408 while UN outscored them 34-29 and outgained them 491-482. UN has 9 seniors among
18 upperclassmen starters and are 4-2 ATS as an AD L/2Y. NM is 3-9 ATS as a HF the L/4Y but this is
the final gm for 19 Sr?s (12 starters) who are determined to get NM?s 1st bowl win in 46 yrs.
UN has our #39 offense which is directed by QB Kaepernick, the ?07 WAC Frosh POY. When starting QB
Graziano was lost for the season (foot injury) in the 5th game, Kaepernick stepped right in & never missed a
beat. In fact, he became an ideal fit for UN?s ?Pistol Offense? with his dual-threat ability to both run & throw.
Since taking over the starting role on Oct 6th (8 gms), Kaepernick has passed for 2,027 yds (253 ypg) with
a 19-2 ratio while rushing for 542 yds (68 ypg). During that span, the Wolf Pack made a concerted effort to
run the ball more & RB Lippincott responded as he led the WAC in rushing while also serving as a viable
receiving option. Over the L/7 gms, Lippincott rushed for 1,016 yds (145 ypg). The OL avg 6?4? 293 & all?d
23 sks (6.5%) while paving the way for 5.0 ypc. UN?s top three WR?s each have big-play ability as each avg
over 18 ypc. TE Bishop only posted 14 rec, but half of them (7) went for a TD?s making him a legitimate RZ
scoring threat. UN?s D is #77 in our rankings & is led by LB Butler who is the Pack?s leading tackler the L/2
yrs. Butler had a rocky start to ?07 after missing the opener (suspended) and another with an injury, but
he stormed his way back into the mix & recorded half of the tm?s 6 int on the ssn. The DL avg 6?3? 272 &
suffered a blow by losing DE Clark for the ssn (pneumonia). UN?s ST?s are rated #97 in our rankings.
Calling the season a slow one for NM would be quite the understatement as fans were looking
forward to a high-flying season behind the arm of QB Porterie. NM was stunned when they lost 10-6
at UTEP despite outgaining them 383-195. Porterie turned it up & threw for a ssn high 342 yds in their
44-34 win over NMSt. His fave targets as the ssn progressed were WR?s Smith (#11 NCAA rec pg, #25
rec ypg) & Brown (#3 MWC rec). The OL avg 6?4? 312 with 4 Sr?s including C Natali, who after suffering
a shoulder inj in ?06, was held out of all contact drills in practice yet still managed to be one of the school
record 8 players named 1st Tm All-Conf. The unit all?d 23 sks (5.8%) while paving the way for 131 ypg
rush (3.4). Overall the offense finished with our #87 ranking. The NM def has been a feared unit in the
MWC as they run a number of stunts & have a way of confusing opponents & getting to the QB quickly
& continuously. This year they backed off somewhat as during a 4 gm stretch the group recorded zero
sks. They finished with 20 & all?d just 127 ypg rush (3.3) to finish #32 in our rankings. The ST?s (#20) unit
boasts the nation?s leading FG K Sullivan (#1 in NCAA FG?s) who re-wrote the MWC record books TY.
New Mexico is making their second straight New Mexico Bowl appearance. Their HC Long is now
0-4 in bowls and does have pressure on him after LY?s loss. Nevada lost their starting QB earlier TY but
the offense was sparked by dual-threat Kaepernick. Speed can contain Nev?s QB and NM?s D is loaded
with quickness. They can also shutdown the Wolf Pack run game as they allowed just 3.3 ypc. NM had
377-280 yd and 20-8 FD edges in LY?s bowl loss to SJSt with 4 TO?s causing their demise. This year
they?ll be a little more conservative to control turnovers.
FORECAST: NEW MEXICO 30 Nevada 23 RATING: 2*
LAS VEGAS BOWL
BYU (10-2) UCLA (6-6
The MWC petitioned the P10 to release UCLA (lost 4 of L/5) so this would not be a rematch from earlier
TY, however the P10 didn?t budge (bowl wanted Cal). This marks the 3rd visit for the Bruins to this bowl
(1-1 SU & ATS) & the 9th ever meeting with BYU (UCLA leads 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS). BYU will make their 3rd
straight visit to the Las Vegas Bowl where they are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS. BYU travels very well to Vegas as LY
their gm vs Oreg was the largest gathering to witness a team sporting event in Nevada and earlier TY vs
UNLV, the BYU faithful accounted for 65% of the attendance. UCLA held off a late Cougar charge earlier TY
although BYU had the FD (23-15) & yardage (435-236) edges. Despite the Bruins reaching a bowl in every
ssn under HC Dorrell, he was let go following the loss to USC. DC Walker will assume interim duties and is
a potential replacement. Walker served as DB cch for BYU in ?94. Mendenhall was also rumored to be on
the Bruins? wish list although he denied interest in the job. Under Mendenhall the Cougs are 1-1 SU & 2-0
ATS in bowls. Both played AZ & Utah TY. The Bruins lost both gms SU & ATS being outscored by a 39-17
clip & outgained 428-249. BYU won both gms (SU & ATS) by an avg score of 19-12 and outgained them
by an avg of 408-250. UCLA faced 7 bowl caliber tms going 6-1 ATS despite being outgained by a 330-289
margin. BYU played 6 bowl caliber squads (4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS) outscoring them 28-24 while outgaining
them 464-334. Both tms have 17 upperclassman with the Bruins having the senior edge (12-8).
The Cougs have our #25 off avg 31 ppg & 458 ypg. After an ARZ win, BYU suffered B2B losses behind
ASU trans QB Hall. He is expected to be at full strength here as over the L/2 gms he was playing with an inj?d
throwing arm. RFr RB Unga won the job & was named MWC Frosh of Yr becoming the1st frosh at BYU (3rd
in MWC) to rush 1,000+ yds. He needs just 6 yds to break the MWC Fr rush rec?d (AF?s Boyea ?01). The OL
avg 6?5? 317 paving the way for 154 ypg (4.0) and all?g just 17 sks (3.6%). The inj bug hit BYU?s D hard as they
ret?d 7 starters but lost 2 with inj early on. They finished 10th in NCAA in ttl D (our #19 ranking) all?g 19 ppg,
307 ypg with 29 sks. The DL avg 6?2? 271 all?g 92 rush ypg (2.9 ypc, #9 NCAA) and BYU is the only team not
to allow a 100 yd rusher. They are led by DE Jorgensen who finished tied for 9th in NCAA with 12 sks. The
strength of this team is at LB which features 4 of the top 5 tacklers. The secondary was crippled with inj?s incl
2Y starter SS Gabriel who was lost prior to the ssn & FS Gooch was lost for the ssn vs TCU. BYU is the only
team in the NCAA that starts 4 walk-ons in its secondary but still finished with our #18 pass eff D all?g 215
ypg (59%) with an 11-15 ratio. The Cougars have our #66 ST?s ranking led by a KR unit that finished #19 in
the NCAA highlighted by Collie and Mahuika. The KR D ranks #11 in the NCAA allowing just 18.4 ypr.
Injuries were a major concern TY as QB Olson (PS#1 signed with BYU and transferred) started just 5
gms missing substantial time with a knee inj. Bkup QB Cowan didn?t fare much better as he battled multiple
inj?s forcing walk-on rFr Bethel-Thompson & converted WR Rasshan to play throughout the ssn. Olson looks
to be near 100% & will likely start here while Cowan?s status is up in the air after another inj vs USC. The
Bruin RB?s were also bit by the inj with RB Bell tearing his ACL mid-ssn & RB Markey battling turf toe. WR?s
Breazell & Cowan led in receiving despite the chaos at QB. The OL avg 6?4? 308 & is led by C Joseph &
RG Tevaga who helped pave the way for 150 rush ypg (3.8) while all?g 33 sks (9.2%). UCLA finished with
our #75 overall off. While the off struggled, the Bruin D was suffocating at times posting our #11 overall
ranking. The DL which avg 6?3? 264 is led by sackmaster DE Davis who tallied 22 sks over the L/2Y. UCLA
all?d 115 rush ypg (3.1) with 36 sks. The LB corps is led by MLB Taylor who played valiantly despite also
dealing with nagging inj?s. The secondary is #17 in our pass D rankings all?g 234 ypg (54%) with a 21-13
ratio & quite possibly have 2 of the best safeties in the NCAA in FS Keyes & SS Horton. The Bruins ST?s
finished with our #6 rankings led by the spectacular KR?s of Slater (3 TD?s, #5 NCAA w/30.9 avg).
The situation certainly favors the Cougars as this is their 5th game at this venue in 3 seasons. This
game also is 1 of 2 rematches (CM-Purdue) and UCLA won the 1st 27-17 (-7.5) despite BYU having
a 435-236 edge. The Bruins finished 6-6 but prior to facing USC they still had Rose Bowl aspirations.
They struggled with QB & RB inj?s but the one constant was a defense that kept them in the game and
they finished this season with a 5-0 ATS mark as an underdog. We?ll call for them to have another big
defensive effort slowing down the potent BYU offense.
FORECAST: UNDER 47 RATING: 1*
S MISSISSIPPI (7-5) CINCINNATI (9-3)
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
This is the 15th (7-7) meeting all-time between these 2 as Cincy used to be in CUSA before leaving
for the BE in ?05. In the last meeting in ?04 Cincy won 52-24 as they outgained SM 430-331 and were
+4 in TO?s. HC Jeff Bower has had 14 straight winning seasons and has taken S Miss to bowls in 10 of
11 years. Bower was let go after the ssn finale (new HC Fedora is OkSt?s OC) but will coach here. This
is the 6th straight bowl for SM going 3-2 SU & 2-2-1 ATS incl LY?s 28-7 win at the GMAC (won L/3). This
is Cincy?s 2nd straight, 6th in 8 years & the 9th bowl in school history. Kelly was hired LY with Dantonio
departing & coached Cincy in the International Bowl, a 27-24 win over W Michigan. Several milestones
were set TY incl their 9th win (1st time S/?53), finishing the ssn ranked with 3 sellouts at Nippert Stadium
(most in school history). Kelly was named the BE Coach of the Year and while this is only his 2nd bowl,
he did lead Div II Grand Valley State to two National Titles. The Cats played 6 bowl caliber teams this
year (4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS) including a loss to then-#5 WV 28-23. They have outscored those opponents
29-20 but were outgained 385-383. SM played 2 teams that were in the Top 25 at some point TY (Tenn
& Boise) losing both SU & ATS by a combined 42 points & played 5 bowl teams going 1-4 SU & ATS.
They were outgained 414-333 and outscored 32-21. SM is just 2-4 ATS on grass the L/2Y and 7-16-1
ATS as an AD (0-2 TY) while Cincy is 2-1 ATS on grass TY & 3-1 as an AF.
SM is not known for its offense (#91) but TY avg?d 394 ypg and 28 ppg which is the 2nd highest
S/?98. SM is led by senior QB Young who opened the season avg 199 ypg (54%) with a 4-2 ratio until
an inj vs Boise State and never really got into any rhythm since his return. RB Fletcher ranks #14 in
NCAA in rushing and has eight 100+ yd games. He became just the 3rd SM RB to have B2B 1,000 yd
seasons & also captured the Conerly Award for the top player in Mississippi. Watch for RB Easterling
(PS#17) as he played in only 1 game (burned RS) and is dynamic. The OL has paved the way for 200
rush ypg & 4.6 ypc both of which are highs under Bower allowing 18 sacks (5.2%). SM has always been
defined by their D (our #58) as the highest total they?ve allowed S/?94 is 25 ppg in 2004. The 24 ppg
allowed TY was a CUSA best as the conf had 8 teams allow over 30 ppg. SM, home of the non-BCS
LB U corps, had 3 straight CUSA D POY from 2003-?05 (Coley, Boley, Davis) and MLB McRath fits the
mold as he ranks #13 in NCAA avg 10.9 tpg. The SM secondary ranks #46 in our pass eff D (224 ypg,
57% 20-14 ratio) with CB Sumrall having 5 int while taking one to the house. SM?s ranks #32 in our
ST?s with P Barefoot ranking #24 in the NCAA in net P.
Cincy?s HC Kelly installed a new Coast to Coast offense to compliment an already stout defense,
spark fan interest and compete with the BE?s offensive powers. The result was a school record 441 pts
scored (#14 in NCAA). The Cats have our #25 rated offense with 37 ppg & 436 ypg. Bionic Ben Mauk
transferred from Wake after he suffered a horrific arm inj in LY?s season opener. He beat out Grutza, who
started 11 gms in ?06, but Grutza started 2 games early in the year including a BE POW effort vs Mia,
Oh. Mauk broke a school record throwing for 27 TD?s. Kelly?s fast paced offense features WR Barnett
who set school record with 13 TD rec?s. The OL thinned down (avg loss 25 lbs) to accommodate the
new offense and they avg 6?4? 294, paving the way for 154 ypg (4.1), all?g 20 sks (4.9%). The Cats have
an undersized athletic defense ranking #35 all?g 19 ppg, 371 ypg and #2 in NCAA with 39 TO?s gained.
The D-Line avg 6?2? 250, all?g 106 rush ypg (3.0) with 30 of UC?s 38 sks. They are led by Sr?s DE Hoke
(12 sks) & DT Byrd. The secondary is tied for #1 in the nation with 23 int led by AA CB Mickens & FS
Nakamura. UC has our #36 pass efficiency ranking allowing 265 ypg (60%) with a 13-23 ratio. Cincy
has our #31 ST?s led by the NCAA?s #1 punter in avg, Huber.
Southern Miss made a bizarre decision in letting HC Bower go. All he?s done is produce 14 straight
winning seasons and bowl appearances in 10 of 11 years. With that said it will be an emotional farewell
as this classy HC volunteered to stay on and coach this bowl after his release. Cincinnati meanwhile
lobbied for both the Sun Bowl & Car Care Bowl but because of limited ticket sales in past bowls they
ended up here. SM has 2 key additions on off (Easterling & Johnson back from inj) and a now-healthy
QB. The Eagles also have 16 Alabama kids on their roster which will turn this into a potential upset.
FORECAST: SOUTHERN MISS (+) 24 Cincinnati 27 RATING: 3*
NEVADA (6-6) NEW MEXICO (8-4)
NEW MEXICOBOWL
Nevada was at a crossroads after 6 gms (2-4) but the players came together & made a pact to win
out & go to a bowl. While they didn?t win out, they did win 4 of their L/6 (losses by 5 pts comb) to get
to an unprecedented 3rd consec bowl. Since HC Ault?s return, he has guided UN to a record of 23-14
over the L/3Y. UN is 3-4 SU (1-3 ATS) in bowl gms & 1-3 SU (1-2 ATS) under Ault. The Pack?s L/5 bowl
gms have been decided by combined 9 pts with the L/2 by just 1 pt each. UN went 0-4 SU (3-1 ATS) vs
bowl caliber tms TY but 3 of 4 gms ended in heartbreaking fashion. New Mexico has not won in the post
season under HC Rocky Long (0-4 SU & ATS) but this group has a chance to win 9 gms & match ?97?s
tm (best L/25Y). The Lobos are disappointed as they were hoping their 8-4 record would vault them into
a higher MWC bowl. NM took on 4 bowl caliber tms & was 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS being outscored 31-17 &
outgained 354-267 (off avg?d just 95 ypg rush). The Lobos obviously have the home edge as this gm
is being played in their home stadium, but they are hoping to draw more than the 34,111 that showed
up LY (SJSt brought approx 2,500-3,000). Long has devoted all of his bowl practice to preparing for UN
(as opposed to working in younger guys) saying, ?I haven?t seen them, except on TV. They look pretty
darn good on TV.? Both tms took on NMSt & UNLV with NM 2-0 ATS outscoring them 36-20 & outgaining
them 439-408 while UN outscored them 34-29 and outgained them 491-482. UN has 9 seniors among
18 upperclassmen starters and are 4-2 ATS as an AD L/2Y. NM is 3-9 ATS as a HF the L/4Y but this is
the final gm for 19 Sr?s (12 starters) who are determined to get NM?s 1st bowl win in 46 yrs.
UN has our #39 offense which is directed by QB Kaepernick, the ?07 WAC Frosh POY. When starting QB
Graziano was lost for the season (foot injury) in the 5th game, Kaepernick stepped right in & never missed a
beat. In fact, he became an ideal fit for UN?s ?Pistol Offense? with his dual-threat ability to both run & throw.
Since taking over the starting role on Oct 6th (8 gms), Kaepernick has passed for 2,027 yds (253 ypg) with
a 19-2 ratio while rushing for 542 yds (68 ypg). During that span, the Wolf Pack made a concerted effort to
run the ball more & RB Lippincott responded as he led the WAC in rushing while also serving as a viable
receiving option. Over the L/7 gms, Lippincott rushed for 1,016 yds (145 ypg). The OL avg 6?4? 293 & all?d
23 sks (6.5%) while paving the way for 5.0 ypc. UN?s top three WR?s each have big-play ability as each avg
over 18 ypc. TE Bishop only posted 14 rec, but half of them (7) went for a TD?s making him a legitimate RZ
scoring threat. UN?s D is #77 in our rankings & is led by LB Butler who is the Pack?s leading tackler the L/2
yrs. Butler had a rocky start to ?07 after missing the opener (suspended) and another with an injury, but
he stormed his way back into the mix & recorded half of the tm?s 6 int on the ssn. The DL avg 6?3? 272 &
suffered a blow by losing DE Clark for the ssn (pneumonia). UN?s ST?s are rated #97 in our rankings.
Calling the season a slow one for NM would be quite the understatement as fans were looking
forward to a high-flying season behind the arm of QB Porterie. NM was stunned when they lost 10-6
at UTEP despite outgaining them 383-195. Porterie turned it up & threw for a ssn high 342 yds in their
44-34 win over NMSt. His fave targets as the ssn progressed were WR?s Smith (#11 NCAA rec pg, #25
rec ypg) & Brown (#3 MWC rec). The OL avg 6?4? 312 with 4 Sr?s including C Natali, who after suffering
a shoulder inj in ?06, was held out of all contact drills in practice yet still managed to be one of the school
record 8 players named 1st Tm All-Conf. The unit all?d 23 sks (5.8%) while paving the way for 131 ypg
rush (3.4). Overall the offense finished with our #87 ranking. The NM def has been a feared unit in the
MWC as they run a number of stunts & have a way of confusing opponents & getting to the QB quickly
& continuously. This year they backed off somewhat as during a 4 gm stretch the group recorded zero
sks. They finished with 20 & all?d just 127 ypg rush (3.3) to finish #32 in our rankings. The ST?s (#20) unit
boasts the nation?s leading FG K Sullivan (#1 in NCAA FG?s) who re-wrote the MWC record books TY.
New Mexico is making their second straight New Mexico Bowl appearance. Their HC Long is now
0-4 in bowls and does have pressure on him after LY?s loss. Nevada lost their starting QB earlier TY but
the offense was sparked by dual-threat Kaepernick. Speed can contain Nev?s QB and NM?s D is loaded
with quickness. They can also shutdown the Wolf Pack run game as they allowed just 3.3 ypc. NM had
377-280 yd and 20-8 FD edges in LY?s bowl loss to SJSt with 4 TO?s causing their demise. This year
they?ll be a little more conservative to control turnovers.
FORECAST: NEW MEXICO 30 Nevada 23 RATING: 2*
LAS VEGAS BOWL
BYU (10-2) UCLA (6-6
The MWC petitioned the P10 to release UCLA (lost 4 of L/5) so this would not be a rematch from earlier
TY, however the P10 didn?t budge (bowl wanted Cal). This marks the 3rd visit for the Bruins to this bowl
(1-1 SU & ATS) & the 9th ever meeting with BYU (UCLA leads 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS). BYU will make their 3rd
straight visit to the Las Vegas Bowl where they are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS. BYU travels very well to Vegas as LY
their gm vs Oreg was the largest gathering to witness a team sporting event in Nevada and earlier TY vs
UNLV, the BYU faithful accounted for 65% of the attendance. UCLA held off a late Cougar charge earlier TY
although BYU had the FD (23-15) & yardage (435-236) edges. Despite the Bruins reaching a bowl in every
ssn under HC Dorrell, he was let go following the loss to USC. DC Walker will assume interim duties and is
a potential replacement. Walker served as DB cch for BYU in ?94. Mendenhall was also rumored to be on
the Bruins? wish list although he denied interest in the job. Under Mendenhall the Cougs are 1-1 SU & 2-0
ATS in bowls. Both played AZ & Utah TY. The Bruins lost both gms SU & ATS being outscored by a 39-17
clip & outgained 428-249. BYU won both gms (SU & ATS) by an avg score of 19-12 and outgained them
by an avg of 408-250. UCLA faced 7 bowl caliber tms going 6-1 ATS despite being outgained by a 330-289
margin. BYU played 6 bowl caliber squads (4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS) outscoring them 28-24 while outgaining
them 464-334. Both tms have 17 upperclassman with the Bruins having the senior edge (12-8).
The Cougs have our #25 off avg 31 ppg & 458 ypg. After an ARZ win, BYU suffered B2B losses behind
ASU trans QB Hall. He is expected to be at full strength here as over the L/2 gms he was playing with an inj?d
throwing arm. RFr RB Unga won the job & was named MWC Frosh of Yr becoming the1st frosh at BYU (3rd
in MWC) to rush 1,000+ yds. He needs just 6 yds to break the MWC Fr rush rec?d (AF?s Boyea ?01). The OL
avg 6?5? 317 paving the way for 154 ypg (4.0) and all?g just 17 sks (3.6%). The inj bug hit BYU?s D hard as they
ret?d 7 starters but lost 2 with inj early on. They finished 10th in NCAA in ttl D (our #19 ranking) all?g 19 ppg,
307 ypg with 29 sks. The DL avg 6?2? 271 all?g 92 rush ypg (2.9 ypc, #9 NCAA) and BYU is the only team not
to allow a 100 yd rusher. They are led by DE Jorgensen who finished tied for 9th in NCAA with 12 sks. The
strength of this team is at LB which features 4 of the top 5 tacklers. The secondary was crippled with inj?s incl
2Y starter SS Gabriel who was lost prior to the ssn & FS Gooch was lost for the ssn vs TCU. BYU is the only
team in the NCAA that starts 4 walk-ons in its secondary but still finished with our #18 pass eff D all?g 215
ypg (59%) with an 11-15 ratio. The Cougars have our #66 ST?s ranking led by a KR unit that finished #19 in
the NCAA highlighted by Collie and Mahuika. The KR D ranks #11 in the NCAA allowing just 18.4 ypr.
Injuries were a major concern TY as QB Olson (PS#1 signed with BYU and transferred) started just 5
gms missing substantial time with a knee inj. Bkup QB Cowan didn?t fare much better as he battled multiple
inj?s forcing walk-on rFr Bethel-Thompson & converted WR Rasshan to play throughout the ssn. Olson looks
to be near 100% & will likely start here while Cowan?s status is up in the air after another inj vs USC. The
Bruin RB?s were also bit by the inj with RB Bell tearing his ACL mid-ssn & RB Markey battling turf toe. WR?s
Breazell & Cowan led in receiving despite the chaos at QB. The OL avg 6?4? 308 & is led by C Joseph &
RG Tevaga who helped pave the way for 150 rush ypg (3.8) while all?g 33 sks (9.2%). UCLA finished with
our #75 overall off. While the off struggled, the Bruin D was suffocating at times posting our #11 overall
ranking. The DL which avg 6?3? 264 is led by sackmaster DE Davis who tallied 22 sks over the L/2Y. UCLA
all?d 115 rush ypg (3.1) with 36 sks. The LB corps is led by MLB Taylor who played valiantly despite also
dealing with nagging inj?s. The secondary is #17 in our pass D rankings all?g 234 ypg (54%) with a 21-13
ratio & quite possibly have 2 of the best safeties in the NCAA in FS Keyes & SS Horton. The Bruins ST?s
finished with our #6 rankings led by the spectacular KR?s of Slater (3 TD?s, #5 NCAA w/30.9 avg).
The situation certainly favors the Cougars as this is their 5th game at this venue in 3 seasons. This
game also is 1 of 2 rematches (CM-Purdue) and UCLA won the 1st 27-17 (-7.5) despite BYU having
a 435-236 edge. The Bruins finished 6-6 but prior to facing USC they still had Rose Bowl aspirations.
They struggled with QB & RB inj?s but the one constant was a defense that kept them in the game and
they finished this season with a 5-0 ATS mark as an underdog. We?ll call for them to have another big
defensive effort slowing down the potent BYU offense.
FORECAST: UNDER 47 RATING: 1*
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINNING POINTS : FOOTBALL
PAPA JOHN?S BOWL
(December 22 at Birmingham)
CINCINNATI over SOUTHERN MISS by 15
The history of double figure underdogs in these early bowl games has been a strong
one, and the logic behind it is substantial ? often a big underdog in such a game as
this one is a team that did not expect to go bowling when the season started, and
it turn brings a lot of motivation, while many times a big early bowl favorite is a
team that expected better things, and is disappointed to be playing prior to the holidays.
That does not apply here. There is nothing special at all about this trip for
Southern Miss, which is appearing in a bowl game for the 10th time in 11 seasons,
and now faces the major distraction of being coached by Jeff Bower and a lameduck
staff, while awaiting the installation of Larry Fedora?s playbook a few months
away in spring practice. Meanwhile Bower is already being mentioned as a candidate
for a few open jobs, and there is hardly a ?win one for the coach? atmosphere
if he might be coaching against these very players next year. Meanwhile the ascending
Bearcats will treat this is a genuine reward, winning nine games for the fist time
since 1953, and setting school records for points, touchdowns and passing touchdowns.
Those offensive numbers combine with a ball-hawking defense (39 takeaways)
to control this against an opponent that may not bring a high level of preparation.
CINCINNATI 35-20.
NEW MEXICO BOWL
(December 22 at Albuquerque)
NEW MEXICO over NEVADA by 4
Can there possibly be a worse bowl invitation than one that keeps you right at
home, staying in your own dorm rooms? If there is, it would be if you practice and
go to school in a place like Reno, where winter can begin early at the altitude, and
when you just might as soon put the pads away instead of practice for a couple of
extra weeks in cold weather. Even if you live in Reno, Albuquerque is not much of
a reward. But the bowl officials did the best that they could to fill seats by keeping
the local Lobos around, although it led to a bit of an embarrassment for Rocky
Long and his team when they lost outright to San Jose State. But it was nothing
new for a program that has not won a bowl game in 46 years, and is 0-4 in the postseason
under Long. The big disappointment for them this season has been the
inability of the offense to develop, with Donovan Porterie no more effective as a
sophomore than he was as a freshman. But he does get to step way down in class
against a yielding Wolfpack defense, and we can expect a much more creative game
plan after the previous four bowls under Long have only seen them average 14.5
points. The real battle is between the New Mexico blitzes and outstanding young
Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick, and that particular matchup is likely to provide
some fireworks both ways. They may be the only excitement this game brings.
NEW MEXICO 31-27.
LAS VEGAS BOWL
(December 22 at Las Vegas)
BRIGHAM YOUNG over U.C.L.A. by 10
Ordinarily a rematch in a bowl game does not come as an inspiration for a team,
and when the trip is to a city in which they have already played, it can also mean
less than the usual excitement. But we do not believe that is the case this time. Not
only should the Cougars be excited about getting a second crack at a U.C.L.A.
team that they dominated earlier in the season, but lost to on the scoreboard, but
trips to Las Vegas have been a good annual draw for a team that has almost turned
Sam Boyd Stadium into a home away from home. So with the right focus, and a
major edge in crowd support, a team that has been well under the radar in terms
of national attention can close a solid season in style. Brigham Young was by far the
better team in that earlier 27-17 loss, leading by eight first downs an 199 yards of
total offense, but the bounces belonged to the Bruins, including an interception
return for a touchdown that was a huge momentum swing. Not much went right
for U.C.L.A. since then, with injuries wrecking the skill positions on offense and
the defense turning in a disappointing campaign. It led to the dismissal of Karl
Dorrell, and while DeWayne Walker steps up from defensive coordinator to interim
coach for this game, the fact that he is not being considered for the full-time
job can lead to even more distractions during preparations, as the names of other
candidates get bandied about. It can lead to a flat effort that makes the Cougar
revenge even easier to attain. B.Y.U. 27-17.
WINNING POINTS : FOOTBALL
PAPA JOHN?S BOWL
(December 22 at Birmingham)
CINCINNATI over SOUTHERN MISS by 15
The history of double figure underdogs in these early bowl games has been a strong
one, and the logic behind it is substantial ? often a big underdog in such a game as
this one is a team that did not expect to go bowling when the season started, and
it turn brings a lot of motivation, while many times a big early bowl favorite is a
team that expected better things, and is disappointed to be playing prior to the holidays.
That does not apply here. There is nothing special at all about this trip for
Southern Miss, which is appearing in a bowl game for the 10th time in 11 seasons,
and now faces the major distraction of being coached by Jeff Bower and a lameduck
staff, while awaiting the installation of Larry Fedora?s playbook a few months
away in spring practice. Meanwhile Bower is already being mentioned as a candidate
for a few open jobs, and there is hardly a ?win one for the coach? atmosphere
if he might be coaching against these very players next year. Meanwhile the ascending
Bearcats will treat this is a genuine reward, winning nine games for the fist time
since 1953, and setting school records for points, touchdowns and passing touchdowns.
Those offensive numbers combine with a ball-hawking defense (39 takeaways)
to control this against an opponent that may not bring a high level of preparation.
CINCINNATI 35-20.
NEW MEXICO BOWL
(December 22 at Albuquerque)
NEW MEXICO over NEVADA by 4
Can there possibly be a worse bowl invitation than one that keeps you right at
home, staying in your own dorm rooms? If there is, it would be if you practice and
go to school in a place like Reno, where winter can begin early at the altitude, and
when you just might as soon put the pads away instead of practice for a couple of
extra weeks in cold weather. Even if you live in Reno, Albuquerque is not much of
a reward. But the bowl officials did the best that they could to fill seats by keeping
the local Lobos around, although it led to a bit of an embarrassment for Rocky
Long and his team when they lost outright to San Jose State. But it was nothing
new for a program that has not won a bowl game in 46 years, and is 0-4 in the postseason
under Long. The big disappointment for them this season has been the
inability of the offense to develop, with Donovan Porterie no more effective as a
sophomore than he was as a freshman. But he does get to step way down in class
against a yielding Wolfpack defense, and we can expect a much more creative game
plan after the previous four bowls under Long have only seen them average 14.5
points. The real battle is between the New Mexico blitzes and outstanding young
Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick, and that particular matchup is likely to provide
some fireworks both ways. They may be the only excitement this game brings.
NEW MEXICO 31-27.
LAS VEGAS BOWL
(December 22 at Las Vegas)
BRIGHAM YOUNG over U.C.L.A. by 10
Ordinarily a rematch in a bowl game does not come as an inspiration for a team,
and when the trip is to a city in which they have already played, it can also mean
less than the usual excitement. But we do not believe that is the case this time. Not
only should the Cougars be excited about getting a second crack at a U.C.L.A.
team that they dominated earlier in the season, but lost to on the scoreboard, but
trips to Las Vegas have been a good annual draw for a team that has almost turned
Sam Boyd Stadium into a home away from home. So with the right focus, and a
major edge in crowd support, a team that has been well under the radar in terms
of national attention can close a solid season in style. Brigham Young was by far the
better team in that earlier 27-17 loss, leading by eight first downs an 199 yards of
total offense, but the bounces belonged to the Bruins, including an interception
return for a touchdown that was a huge momentum swing. Not much went right
for U.C.L.A. since then, with injuries wrecking the skill positions on offense and
the defense turning in a disappointing campaign. It led to the dismissal of Karl
Dorrell, and while DeWayne Walker steps up from defensive coordinator to interim
coach for this game, the fact that he is not being considered for the full-time
job can lead to even more distractions during preparations, as the names of other
candidates get bandied about. It can lead to a flat effort that makes the Cougar
revenge even easier to attain. B.Y.U. 27-17.
POINTWISE:
PAPAJOHNS CINCINNATI 39 - Southern Mississippi 22 RATING: 4
NEW MEXICO NEVADA 37 - New Mexico 33 RATING: 5
LAS VEGAS BYU 30 - Ucla 20 RATING: 5
CINCINNATI (9-3) vs SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (7-5)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22
1:00 PM EST -- ESPN2 TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Cincinnati .... 41.7 ...37-19 ... 22-20 .. 157-106 ...282-265 .. +17 . Cincinnati
So Miss ....... 36.3 ...25-24 ... 21-20 .. 176-149 ...200-221 .. - 4 . by 7.7 Pts
ANALYSIS
As we wrote a year ago, the Golden Eagles of Southern Mississippi have become
a near permanent holiday fixture, & here they are again, participating in their 10th
bowl game in the past 11 seasons. In their previous 9 bowls, they've gone 6-3 on
the field, & 5-4 vs the pts, with their only SU win/ATS loss coming in a 31-19 win
over Arkansas St, in the '05 New Orleans Bowl, as 16-pt chalks. A year ago,
they covered by 14?, in their 28-7 win over Ohio U, in the New Orleans Bowl.
This has been a typical season for the Eagles, as their 7-5 log has been the norm
under Jeff Bower, who is coaching his final game at SM, thereby ending a 29-yr
relationship with the school, as a player & coach, with this his 14th consecutive
winning season. The chalk has been the way to go of late, in games involving
Southern, especially away from Hattiesburg, where it is has covered 15 of its last
20 contests. They are led by RB Fletcher, who finished the season with 1,431
yds (5.4 ypr) & 15 TDs, on top of his brilliant frosh season of 1,388 yds & 11 TDs.
Overhead, however, shows just 12 TD passes & 13 INTs for Young & Reaves.
Not the case with the Bearcats of Cincinnati, who are playing in their 6th bowl
game in the past 8 years. They are led by QB Ben Mauk, who transferred from
Wake Forest, & wound up as the nation's 9th rated passer (2,787 yds, 61.4%,
27 TDs, & just 6 INTs). As can be seen above, the Cincy offense is weighted
toward the pass, but note a 4.2-3.0 ypr rushing edge over the entire course of the
season. And be sure to take note of the fact that the Bearcats rank 2nd in the
nation in the takeaway, with 39. The quality of opposition is heavily in the Bearcats'
corner, & Cincy has delivered the money all season long. We call their number.
PROPHECY: CINCINNATI 39 - Southern Mississippi 22 RATING: 4
NEW MEXICO (8-4) vs NEVADA (6-6)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22
4:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Nw Mexico .. 38.0 ...25-21 ... 18-18 .. 137-129 ...222-202 .. + 1 . Nevada
Nevada........ 35.1 ...36-33 ... 24-21 .. 227-173 ...263-231 .. - 4 . by 3.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
The 2nd year for this newest of bowls, with the homestanding Lobos of New
Mexico again playing host. A year ago, they were a bit embarrassed in losing to
San Jose St, 20-12, as the same FG chalks that they are this time around. The
fumble (4) killed New Mexico in that contest, as they held nearly a 100-yd edge
over the Spartans. This season has been just an extension of the successful
tenure of coach Rocky Long, whose minions have gone bowling 6 times in his 11
years at the helm. The Lobos broke our hearts in their opener, when, as our Top
College Play on Pointwise, as 3? pt chalks over Utep, they held edges of 23-12
in FDs, 379-195 in yds, & 38:23-21:37 in time, but managed only 6 pts, in losing
10-6. Ouch! But once more, they've righted their ship, & find themselves again
in the post-season picture. Their ace is RB Ferguson, who finished with 1,177
yds & 13 TDs, while ranking 36th in the nation, while QB Porterie stood at 58.6 for
2,652 yds & 13 TDs, but 8 INTs at season's end. Easy wins were hardly the
norm, as 4 of their 7 wins over lined foes came by just 2, 3, 3, & 3 pts, and note
only a 4-ppg edge over the course of the season. The Wolfpack of Nevada Reno
has really lit it up this season, ranking 7th in the nation on offense, & 16th in the
land in scoring. RB Lippincott sets the tone (1,380 yds & 15 TDs), with QB
Kaepernick at 55.6% for 2,038 yds. Not that impressive? Okay, how about 19
TD passes & only 3 INTs? Good enough to place him 5th in the nation among
QBs. And WR Mitchell averaged 22.0 yd per catch. The last 5 lined Nevada
road gms have seen finals of 36-31, 69-67, 31-28, 40-38,& 27 -24. That Reno
"D" can definitely jump up & bite the 'Pack, but its explosive "O" may neutralize it.
PROPHECY: Nevada 37 - NEW MEXICO 33 RATING: 5
BRIGHAM YOUNG (10-2) vs UCLA (6-6)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
BYU ............ 39.5 .. 32-19 .. 25-17 .. 154- 92 ... 304-215 .. - 6 . BYU
UCLA .......... 45.1 .. 23-23 .. 17-19 .. 150-115 .. 185-233 .. - 4 . by 6.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
A bowl rarity here, and it's spelled r-e-v-e-n-g-e. That's right, these two have
already met this season, in week #2 to be exact, when the hosting Bruins of
UCLA, as 7? pt chalks, took the measure of the Cougars of BYU, 27-17,
despite deficits of 23-15 in FDs, & 435-236 in total yards! The Bruins have had
their moments, to be sure, with 45, 44, & 45 pt outbursts in 3 of their first 5
games, but they've been hit hard by the injury bug, especially at QB, with both
Olson & Cowan missing considerable time, altho both should be ready for this
contest. The Uclans, as usual, have seen plenty of bowl action, with this their
6th straight holiday appearance, but note suffering through 7, 6, 4, 5, 7, 6, 6, &
6 loss seasons from '99 thru '07, with the exception being their 10-2 mark in
'05, & even that year saw the Bruins allowing 34.2 ppg (10th worst in the
nation). This year they failed to top 16 pts on 5 occasions, & were completely
outplayed in their finale vs USC, with 26-10 FD, 231-12 RY, & 437-168 TY
deficits. Yet, through it all, the Bruins managed an 8-4 spread mark, going a
perfect 5-0 as dogs, by 63 pts ATS. For the Coogs, this marks their 26th bowl
game since '74. Records of 5-7, 4-8, & 5-6 kept them home for the holidays in
'02, '03, & '04, but Mendenhall has made school history since that dry spell,
becoming the first head coach to take the Cougars bowling in his first 3 years.
All three have been spent in Las Vegas. How have they done so far? A push
in '05's 35-28 loss to Cal, in which they had a mere 469-446 yd deficit; and a
38-8 rout of Oregon last year, as 3? pt chalks (30-14 FD & 548-260 yd edges).
BYU is on a 21-9 ATS run, ranks 15th on "O", 9th on "D". Revenge? You bet.
PROPHECY: BYU 30 - Ucla 20 RATING: 5
PAPAJOHNS CINCINNATI 39 - Southern Mississippi 22 RATING: 4
NEW MEXICO NEVADA 37 - New Mexico 33 RATING: 5
LAS VEGAS BYU 30 - Ucla 20 RATING: 5
CINCINNATI (9-3) vs SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (7-5)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22
1:00 PM EST -- ESPN2 TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Cincinnati .... 41.7 ...37-19 ... 22-20 .. 157-106 ...282-265 .. +17 . Cincinnati
So Miss ....... 36.3 ...25-24 ... 21-20 .. 176-149 ...200-221 .. - 4 . by 7.7 Pts
ANALYSIS
As we wrote a year ago, the Golden Eagles of Southern Mississippi have become
a near permanent holiday fixture, & here they are again, participating in their 10th
bowl game in the past 11 seasons. In their previous 9 bowls, they've gone 6-3 on
the field, & 5-4 vs the pts, with their only SU win/ATS loss coming in a 31-19 win
over Arkansas St, in the '05 New Orleans Bowl, as 16-pt chalks. A year ago,
they covered by 14?, in their 28-7 win over Ohio U, in the New Orleans Bowl.
This has been a typical season for the Eagles, as their 7-5 log has been the norm
under Jeff Bower, who is coaching his final game at SM, thereby ending a 29-yr
relationship with the school, as a player & coach, with this his 14th consecutive
winning season. The chalk has been the way to go of late, in games involving
Southern, especially away from Hattiesburg, where it is has covered 15 of its last
20 contests. They are led by RB Fletcher, who finished the season with 1,431
yds (5.4 ypr) & 15 TDs, on top of his brilliant frosh season of 1,388 yds & 11 TDs.
Overhead, however, shows just 12 TD passes & 13 INTs for Young & Reaves.
Not the case with the Bearcats of Cincinnati, who are playing in their 6th bowl
game in the past 8 years. They are led by QB Ben Mauk, who transferred from
Wake Forest, & wound up as the nation's 9th rated passer (2,787 yds, 61.4%,
27 TDs, & just 6 INTs). As can be seen above, the Cincy offense is weighted
toward the pass, but note a 4.2-3.0 ypr rushing edge over the entire course of the
season. And be sure to take note of the fact that the Bearcats rank 2nd in the
nation in the takeaway, with 39. The quality of opposition is heavily in the Bearcats'
corner, & Cincy has delivered the money all season long. We call their number.
PROPHECY: CINCINNATI 39 - Southern Mississippi 22 RATING: 4
NEW MEXICO (8-4) vs NEVADA (6-6)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22
4:30 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Nw Mexico .. 38.0 ...25-21 ... 18-18 .. 137-129 ...222-202 .. + 1 . Nevada
Nevada........ 35.1 ...36-33 ... 24-21 .. 227-173 ...263-231 .. - 4 . by 3.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
The 2nd year for this newest of bowls, with the homestanding Lobos of New
Mexico again playing host. A year ago, they were a bit embarrassed in losing to
San Jose St, 20-12, as the same FG chalks that they are this time around. The
fumble (4) killed New Mexico in that contest, as they held nearly a 100-yd edge
over the Spartans. This season has been just an extension of the successful
tenure of coach Rocky Long, whose minions have gone bowling 6 times in his 11
years at the helm. The Lobos broke our hearts in their opener, when, as our Top
College Play on Pointwise, as 3? pt chalks over Utep, they held edges of 23-12
in FDs, 379-195 in yds, & 38:23-21:37 in time, but managed only 6 pts, in losing
10-6. Ouch! But once more, they've righted their ship, & find themselves again
in the post-season picture. Their ace is RB Ferguson, who finished with 1,177
yds & 13 TDs, while ranking 36th in the nation, while QB Porterie stood at 58.6 for
2,652 yds & 13 TDs, but 8 INTs at season's end. Easy wins were hardly the
norm, as 4 of their 7 wins over lined foes came by just 2, 3, 3, & 3 pts, and note
only a 4-ppg edge over the course of the season. The Wolfpack of Nevada Reno
has really lit it up this season, ranking 7th in the nation on offense, & 16th in the
land in scoring. RB Lippincott sets the tone (1,380 yds & 15 TDs), with QB
Kaepernick at 55.6% for 2,038 yds. Not that impressive? Okay, how about 19
TD passes & only 3 INTs? Good enough to place him 5th in the nation among
QBs. And WR Mitchell averaged 22.0 yd per catch. The last 5 lined Nevada
road gms have seen finals of 36-31, 69-67, 31-28, 40-38,& 27 -24. That Reno
"D" can definitely jump up & bite the 'Pack, but its explosive "O" may neutralize it.
PROPHECY: Nevada 37 - NEW MEXICO 33 RATING: 5
BRIGHAM YOUNG (10-2) vs UCLA (6-6)
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22
8:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
BYU ............ 39.5 .. 32-19 .. 25-17 .. 154- 92 ... 304-215 .. - 6 . BYU
UCLA .......... 45.1 .. 23-23 .. 17-19 .. 150-115 .. 185-233 .. - 4 . by 6.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
A bowl rarity here, and it's spelled r-e-v-e-n-g-e. That's right, these two have
already met this season, in week #2 to be exact, when the hosting Bruins of
UCLA, as 7? pt chalks, took the measure of the Cougars of BYU, 27-17,
despite deficits of 23-15 in FDs, & 435-236 in total yards! The Bruins have had
their moments, to be sure, with 45, 44, & 45 pt outbursts in 3 of their first 5
games, but they've been hit hard by the injury bug, especially at QB, with both
Olson & Cowan missing considerable time, altho both should be ready for this
contest. The Uclans, as usual, have seen plenty of bowl action, with this their
6th straight holiday appearance, but note suffering through 7, 6, 4, 5, 7, 6, 6, &
6 loss seasons from '99 thru '07, with the exception being their 10-2 mark in
'05, & even that year saw the Bruins allowing 34.2 ppg (10th worst in the
nation). This year they failed to top 16 pts on 5 occasions, & were completely
outplayed in their finale vs USC, with 26-10 FD, 231-12 RY, & 437-168 TY
deficits. Yet, through it all, the Bruins managed an 8-4 spread mark, going a
perfect 5-0 as dogs, by 63 pts ATS. For the Coogs, this marks their 26th bowl
game since '74. Records of 5-7, 4-8, & 5-6 kept them home for the holidays in
'02, '03, & '04, but Mendenhall has made school history since that dry spell,
becoming the first head coach to take the Cougars bowling in his first 3 years.
All three have been spent in Las Vegas. How have they done so far? A push
in '05's 35-28 loss to Cal, in which they had a mere 469-446 yd deficit; and a
38-8 rout of Oregon last year, as 3? pt chalks (30-14 FD & 548-260 yd edges).
BYU is on a 21-9 ATS run, ranks 15th on "O", 9th on "D". Revenge? You bet.
PROPHECY: BYU 30 - Ucla 20 RATING: 5
CONFIDENTIAL TIP-OFF BASKETBALL
10* JAMES MADISON over *Seton Hall...CAA scouts have alerted us to positive developments at JMU, still flying under radar despite positive
start to campaign. Unselfish Dukes impressing with their precision on offensive end, helped by arrival of Saint Joe?s transfer G Jalloh, who
has helped JMU hit eye-opening 52% from floor thru first 7 games. Big East observers claim Pirates not yet complete team, lacking
presence in paint and still inconsistent from perimeter (just 32% treys).
JAMES MADISON 69 - *Seton Hall 70 RATING-10
10* WESTERN KENTUCKY over *Southern Illinois...?Take? with deep, TO-producing WKU (21 takeaways pg) eager to enhance NCAA resume
prior to Sun Belt play. Hilltopppers primed for ?hump? road win following narrow losses vs. classy Gonzaga & Tennessee on neutral sites.
WKU possesses team speed & shooting prowess (40% treys) to often burn SIU in transition before Salukis set up defensively, while 6-
5 sr. G Lee (22 ppg) can create anytime, anywhere. SIU just 3-7-2 vs. spread last 12 in Carbondale.
ALABAMA over Missouri State (at Las Vegas)...Now that young Bama Gs are learning their roles and compensating for loss of star PG Steele, must buck shaky-shooting MSU (just 31% from arc) still searching to replace marksmenship provided by LY?s 3 top scorers. Tide?s
powerful 6-8, 265 sr. C Hendrix (19 ppg, 12 rpg, 2.4 bpg) will surely get Bears over-zealous 6-8 C Richard in early foul trouble, while springy 6-6 F Gee (14 ppg, 7 rpg) matches up well with MSU?s top-scoring 6-5 F Mitchell.
ALABAMA 76 - Mssouri State 65 RATING - 10
10* JAMES MADISON over *Seton Hall...CAA scouts have alerted us to positive developments at JMU, still flying under radar despite positive
start to campaign. Unselfish Dukes impressing with their precision on offensive end, helped by arrival of Saint Joe?s transfer G Jalloh, who
has helped JMU hit eye-opening 52% from floor thru first 7 games. Big East observers claim Pirates not yet complete team, lacking
presence in paint and still inconsistent from perimeter (just 32% treys).
JAMES MADISON 69 - *Seton Hall 70 RATING-10
10* WESTERN KENTUCKY over *Southern Illinois...?Take? with deep, TO-producing WKU (21 takeaways pg) eager to enhance NCAA resume
prior to Sun Belt play. Hilltopppers primed for ?hump? road win following narrow losses vs. classy Gonzaga & Tennessee on neutral sites.
WKU possesses team speed & shooting prowess (40% treys) to often burn SIU in transition before Salukis set up defensively, while 6-
5 sr. G Lee (22 ppg) can create anytime, anywhere. SIU just 3-7-2 vs. spread last 12 in Carbondale.
ALABAMA over Missouri State (at Las Vegas)...Now that young Bama Gs are learning their roles and compensating for loss of star PG Steele, must buck shaky-shooting MSU (just 31% from arc) still searching to replace marksmenship provided by LY?s 3 top scorers. Tide?s
powerful 6-8, 265 sr. C Hendrix (19 ppg, 12 rpg, 2.4 bpg) will surely get Bears over-zealous 6-8 C Richard in early foul trouble, while springy 6-6 F Gee (14 ppg, 7 rpg) matches up well with MSU?s top-scoring 6-5 F Mitchell.
ALABAMA 76 - Mssouri State 65 RATING - 10
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POINTWISE HOOPS:
OHIO STATE over Florida (Sat) RATING: 1
ARIZONA over San Diego State (Sat) RATING: 2
NORTHEASTERN over Bost Coll (Sat) RATING: 3
CLEVELAND ST over Cent Mich (Sat) RATING: 5
OHIO STATE over Florida (Sat) RATING: 1
ARIZONA over San Diego State (Sat) RATING: 2
NORTHEASTERN over Bost Coll (Sat) RATING: 3
CLEVELAND ST over Cent Mich (Sat) RATING: 5
WINNING POINTS - HOOPS - NBA
***BEST BET
Golden State over *New Jersey by 10
The Nets have been a great ?fade? when playing at home this season. New Jersey had
dropped eight of their past 10 games at the Meadowlands through Dec. 1. Jason Kidd
still is a great player, but he can?t be counted on every night. Vince Carter is having an
injury-riddled, off-season and is being heavily booed at home. The bench is weak and
there has been no scoring in the low post. The Warriors have had three days to prepare,
which is key for an up-tempo, matchup-oriented coach such as the Warriors?
Don Nelson. GOLDEN STATE 112-102.
***BEST BET
*Miami over Utah by 12
The Heat aren?t a great free throw shooting squad, but they don?t figure to miss 15-of-
31 charity tosses like they did when the Jazz beat them as a 10-point home favorite
three weeks ago, 110-101. Dewayne Wade still was rusty back then. The Jazz play terrible
defense on the road and should be dog tired. This marks their ninth road appearance
in their past 11 games. It?s also Utah?s fourth road game in six nights and third in
four nights. Utah also may be without Mehmet Okur (check status). MIAMI 108-96.
***BEST BET
Golden State over *New Jersey by 10
The Nets have been a great ?fade? when playing at home this season. New Jersey had
dropped eight of their past 10 games at the Meadowlands through Dec. 1. Jason Kidd
still is a great player, but he can?t be counted on every night. Vince Carter is having an
injury-riddled, off-season and is being heavily booed at home. The bench is weak and
there has been no scoring in the low post. The Warriors have had three days to prepare,
which is key for an up-tempo, matchup-oriented coach such as the Warriors?
Don Nelson. GOLDEN STATE 112-102.
***BEST BET
*Miami over Utah by 12
The Heat aren?t a great free throw shooting squad, but they don?t figure to miss 15-of-
31 charity tosses like they did when the Jazz beat them as a 10-point home favorite
three weeks ago, 110-101. Dewayne Wade still was rusty back then. The Jazz play terrible
defense on the road and should be dog tired. This marks their ninth road appearance
in their past 11 games. It?s also Utah?s fourth road game in six nights and third in
four nights. Utah also may be without Mehmet Okur (check status). MIAMI 108-96.
WINNING POINTS HOOPS - COLLEGE
***BEST BET
Rhode Island* over Hofstra by 27
Home Rams play with an NCAA At-Large agenda. With a 10-1 SU record entering
this, every win they get in December gets them closer to 21 wins and lessens the
urgency of late-season stuff. In every game they can get a commanding lead, Jim Baron
can play more people and build depth in what is already a balanced and experienced
team. Hofstra has the nation?s leading scorer, guard Antoine Agudio. Fine. What did
Western Carolina or St. Peter?s do when they had the nation?s leading scorers Kevin
Martin and Keydren Clark? They got killed every other game. Agudio?s supporting cast
has no step-up player and the Hofstra point-guard play is weak. As a team, they don?t
get after loose balls. Their dribble-kick out play has taken a step backwards and the
alley-oop that was once good for two very deflating buckets a game against the opponent
is no longer a weapon. Rhode Island guard Parfait Bitee is one of the best on-ball
defenders in the A-10 and will make Agudio work as hard or harder than in any prior
game. RHODE ISLAND, 85-58.
***BEST BET
Wisconsin-GB* over Northern Illinois by 24
The GeeBees? Tod Kowalcyzk is in his sixth season as the Phoenix head coach. They
won 18 games last season. They have nice size across their 3s, 4s and 5s, shoot the
three-pointer well enough against this class (greater than 37% for three straight seasons
prior to this season?s about-to-improve 32.5%). They are off two excusable losses.
NIU has a first-season head coach. They won 7 games a year ago and opened this
season with six straight losses. Although they won two straight as soon as leading scorer
Ryan Paradise went out, he might come back and mess things up again. Paradise
averages only 10.7 points per game, so this team is obviously in wishin?, hopin? prayin?
mode while the GeeBees have the substantially more set system and therefore, a better
foundation and more confidence for a ?get back on track? game before they lose at
Michigan State next. WISCONSIN-GB, 82-58.
***BEST BET
Rhode Island* over Hofstra by 27
Home Rams play with an NCAA At-Large agenda. With a 10-1 SU record entering
this, every win they get in December gets them closer to 21 wins and lessens the
urgency of late-season stuff. In every game they can get a commanding lead, Jim Baron
can play more people and build depth in what is already a balanced and experienced
team. Hofstra has the nation?s leading scorer, guard Antoine Agudio. Fine. What did
Western Carolina or St. Peter?s do when they had the nation?s leading scorers Kevin
Martin and Keydren Clark? They got killed every other game. Agudio?s supporting cast
has no step-up player and the Hofstra point-guard play is weak. As a team, they don?t
get after loose balls. Their dribble-kick out play has taken a step backwards and the
alley-oop that was once good for two very deflating buckets a game against the opponent
is no longer a weapon. Rhode Island guard Parfait Bitee is one of the best on-ball
defenders in the A-10 and will make Agudio work as hard or harder than in any prior
game. RHODE ISLAND, 85-58.
***BEST BET
Wisconsin-GB* over Northern Illinois by 24
The GeeBees? Tod Kowalcyzk is in his sixth season as the Phoenix head coach. They
won 18 games last season. They have nice size across their 3s, 4s and 5s, shoot the
three-pointer well enough against this class (greater than 37% for three straight seasons
prior to this season?s about-to-improve 32.5%). They are off two excusable losses.
NIU has a first-season head coach. They won 7 games a year ago and opened this
season with six straight losses. Although they won two straight as soon as leading scorer
Ryan Paradise went out, he might come back and mess things up again. Paradise
averages only 10.7 points per game, so this team is obviously in wishin?, hopin? prayin?
mode while the GeeBees have the substantially more set system and therefore, a better
foundation and more confidence for a ?get back on track? game before they lose at
Michigan State next. WISCONSIN-GB, 82-58.
THE SPORTS REPORTER HOOPS:
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22
BEST BET
*MEMPHIS over GEORGETOWN by 14
Deeply respect Hoyas and JT III, but given broad athleticism of Tigers, can?t fade
Calipari plus short number with this traveling Big East entry, at this juncture. MEMPHIS,
84-70.
BEST BET
WESTERN KENTUCKY over *SOUTHERN ILLINOIS by 5
Salukis brought halt to their 3-game skid eleven days ago against St .Mary?s, halting
the handwringing, for the moment, but 13-0 collapse in final stages at St. Louis
not a good sign, given that Darrin Horn?s first-rate fighting outfit again proved they
can play with ?most anyone by scaring Tennessee to death on a neutral. WESTERN
KENTUCKY, 61-56.
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22
BEST BET
*MEMPHIS over GEORGETOWN by 14
Deeply respect Hoyas and JT III, but given broad athleticism of Tigers, can?t fade
Calipari plus short number with this traveling Big East entry, at this juncture. MEMPHIS,
84-70.
BEST BET
WESTERN KENTUCKY over *SOUTHERN ILLINOIS by 5
Salukis brought halt to their 3-game skid eleven days ago against St .Mary?s, halting
the handwringing, for the moment, but 13-0 collapse in final stages at St. Louis
not a good sign, given that Darrin Horn?s first-rate fighting outfit again proved they
can play with ?most anyone by scaring Tennessee to death on a neutral. WESTERN
KENTUCKY, 61-56.
ANDY ISKOE COLLEGE BOWL SELECTIONS
Dec 22 Papa-John's.com Bowl 1 Star Southern Miss over Cincinnati
Dec 22 New Mexico Bowl 2 Star Nevada Reno over NEW MEXICO
Dec 22 Las Vegas Bowl 5 Star Byu over Ucla
Dec 22 Papa-John's.com Bowl 1 Star Southern Miss over Cincinnati
Dec 22 New Mexico Bowl 2 Star Nevada Reno over NEW MEXICO
Dec 22 Las Vegas Bowl 5 Star Byu over Ucla
JOHN CAMBELL FROM COVERS:
Papajohns.com Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati (-11, 56)
Dear Jeff Bower, You have done too awesome a job with our program, which was supposed to be mired in mediocrity. Therefore, you are fired.
Signed, the Alumni Association of Southern Miss.
Pick: Cincinnati -11
New Mexico Bowl
Nevada vs. New Mexico (-3, 60 ?)
Last year the Lobos were favored by three points against a so-so WAC team and lost. This year the Lobos are favored by three points against a so-so WAC team.
Pick: Nevada +3
Las Vegas Bowl
UCLA vs. BYU (-6, 47)
I?m not sure how we can bet on the Bruins here. They are the most inconsistent team for the last, oh, four years or so and their coach just got fired. Sin City is probably not the best venue for them.
Pick: BYU -6
Papajohns.com Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati (-11, 56)
Dear Jeff Bower, You have done too awesome a job with our program, which was supposed to be mired in mediocrity. Therefore, you are fired.
Signed, the Alumni Association of Southern Miss.
Pick: Cincinnati -11
New Mexico Bowl
Nevada vs. New Mexico (-3, 60 ?)
Last year the Lobos were favored by three points against a so-so WAC team and lost. This year the Lobos are favored by three points against a so-so WAC team.
Pick: Nevada +3
Las Vegas Bowl
UCLA vs. BYU (-6, 47)
I?m not sure how we can bet on the Bruins here. They are the most inconsistent team for the last, oh, four years or so and their coach just got fired. Sin City is probably not the best venue for them.
Pick: BYU -6
vegas hotsheet
Saturday, December 22nd
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL - 1:00pm ET ESPN2
309 Southern Miss 20
310 Cincinnati 39
CINCINNATI -11
NEW MEXICO BOWL - 4:30pm ET ESPN
311 Nevada 31
312 New Mexico 23
NEVADA +3
LAS VEGAS BOWL - 8:00pm ET ESPN
313 UCLA 24
314 BYU 21
UCLA +6?
Saturday, December 22nd
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL - 1:00pm ET ESPN2
309 Southern Miss 20
310 Cincinnati 39
CINCINNATI -11
NEW MEXICO BOWL - 4:30pm ET ESPN
311 Nevada 31
312 New Mexico 23
NEVADA +3
LAS VEGAS BOWL - 8:00pm ET ESPN
313 UCLA 24
314 BYU 21
UCLA +6?
