Drew Gordon
Saturday Plays:
1. 300,000♦ Cowboys
2. 50,000♦ UCLA
3. 50,000♦ Valparaiso
1. Cowboys- Now that Jessica-gate is over, the Cowboys can get back to the business of dominating the NFC, and that includes a short-handed and extremely flawed Carolina team in this Saturday nighter.
Thanks to the Cowboys loss against the Eagles, and a solid win by the Panthers over Seattle last week at home, we're getting a bargain price on what has all the makings of a blowout. Make no mistake, Dallas will win this game BIG and here's why:
First, Romo and company will be looking to make up for a terrible showing against the Eagles. Owens can blame Romo's girlfriend, but the truth of the matter was it as a bad game for the entire Dallas offense, and I expect they'll be extremely focused in tonight's bounce back effort. The fact star DE Julius Peppers is listed as doubtful only makes Romo's job that much easier.
Second, one unit that didn't struggle last week was the Dallas defense, which is allowing just 19 ppg on 301 total yards (90 rushing) on the road this season. They've been excellent against the run all season, so don't expect much from Foster or Williams. And if they decide to "air it out" with Matt Moore, he'll get well acquainted with a Dallas defense that loves to pressure the QB with Ellis and Ware among others!
Finally, let's talk motivation, as a win here gives the Cowboys home-field advantage in the NFC. While Dallas does own the tie-breaker with Green Bay, the fact the Packers have the Bears and Lions left means Dallas cannot afford to screw around with Carolina tonight. We'll chalk up last week as an abberation... Look for the Cowboys to get back on track with a lopsided win and cover against Carolina in this one!
Take the Cowboys BIG over the Panthers as your top-rated play of the day.
2. UCLA- While BYU statistically dominated their match up earlier this season, the Bruins won handily 27-17... This time around, I expect the winner to come by a field goal, as underestimating UCLA in this spot would be big mistake.
More than anything, what keeps UCLA in this game is their defense, which has been excellent over their last 3 games, allowing 16 ppg on 312 total yards (only 170 yards passing/game). While critics will argue that BYU's defensive numbers are just as good over the same span, clearly they didn't look at the level of competition. Bruins covered 3 straight against Arizona State, Oregon, and Southern Cal thanks to their defense... So don't tell me the Cougars covers against Wyoming, Utah, and San Diego State are the same thing!
Also consider the time off has allowed QB Ben Olson to get his head on straight. He's been dealing with injuries all season, and understandbly has looked like a shell of his former self. With loads of rest and practice time, look for the talented signal caller to finally deliver against a beatable Cougars defense.
Finally, make no mistake, the Bruins are playing for defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker's job as head coach. After dismissing Karl Dorrell, the players want nothing more than the continuity Walker brings to the job. He's extremely popular inside the program, but will have to get a win here to impress the suits who will decide his fate... I say the Bruins respond accordingly!
Take UCLA plus the points over Brigham Young in tonight's Las Vegas Bowl.
3. Valparaiso- As much history as there is behind the Badgers at the Kohl Center, try and remember that this is not the Tucker and Taylor led Wisky team you're used to seeing. In fact, this year's version of Wisconsin looks incredibly vunerable in this spot as heavy favorite against a solid Valpo team.
Speaking of the Crusaders, they can attribute a lot of their success to the return of their top-6 players, as this veteran team knows how to win on the road (wins at Detroit, at Wright State). I'm not saying they win outright, far from it, but making them double-digit dogs in this spot is outrageous considering their recent play, averaging 77 ppg on an impressive 51% shooting (44% from 3-point) over their last 5 games!
Wisky meanwhile, has looked less than impressive over the same span, going 2-3 ATS, with a blowout loss at Duke, and an outright loss at home to Marquette. Their offense just hasn't been executing, averaging 67 ppg over their last 5, and while the Crusaders defense isn't as good as the Badgers, they're still good enough to give Wisconsin trouble the way they're playing right now.
Finally, underestimate Valpo at your own risk tonight, as they're a solid 4-1 ATS away this season. Laying this many points with a good, but not great Wisconsin team is just plain ridiculous. The Badgers will win this game, but you better believe the Crusaders will make them work for it, keeping this one easily within the number!
Take Valparaiso plus the points over Wisconsin in this college hoops match up.
Today's Games...
1. 50,000♦ New Mexico
2. 50,000♦ Ohio State
1. New Mexico- As good as the Wolfpack has looked behind their stud freshman QB Kaepernick, the Lobos defense has looked better. Say what you will about the dual-threat Nevada signal caller, but he's still a freshman, and freshman don't do well against complicated, blitz heavy defenses like the Lobos. New Mexico's defense is allowing 19 ppg on just 314 total yards (174 passing yards/contest) over their last 3 games.
All I've heard all week is how Rocky Long is 0-4 SUATS in Bowl games, and while that's true, let's not get carried away. Basing your decision on one stat is short-sighted, especially when you consider all the other factors in New Mexico's favor, including the fact their offense will be facing a very beatable Wolfpack defense, allowing 32 ppg on 400+ total yards! Sure, we'll give the edge to Kaepernick, but Lobos QB Porterie is no slouch, tossing for 2636 yards and 13 TD to 8 INT ratio. Not to mention a huge offensive line punching holes for first-team Mountain West RB Ferguson.
Finally, despite their troubles covering at home, there's no question the Lobos will benefit from playing in the friendly confines of home. Offensively, they average over 11 more points per game than their season average there (35 to 24) and are much more effective running the ball, which is the key to keeping Nevada's pistol offense off the field. In the end, coach Long gets his first Bowl win and the Lobos grab the cash!
Take New Mexico over Nevada in this afternoon's New Mexico Bowl.
2. Ohio State- How much things change from one year to the next, as we're no longer talking about players like Horford and Oden, but instead about freshman like Calathes and Koufos. Make no mistake, coach Matta and his Buckeye's have an axe to grind with this Gators team, and this afternoon presents the perfect oppurtunity at home for some much needed payback.
Both teams are young and experiencing growing pains, but I saw some signs of growth from Ohio State in their 80-63 thrashing of Cleveland State. First of all, they went on the road and dominated a solid Vikings team, limiting them to 36% shooting. Second, we saw what veterans are left on this Buckeye's roster really contribute, in Butler and Hunter. And third, the young bucks on this team, Lighty and Koufos, are playing rock-solid basketball for being underclassmen.
The same cannot be said of Florida simply because coach Donovan has loaded their schedule with cupcakes (surely to protect their young players), including 8 non-lined contests thus far! Even against real competition they showed us little positive, as a 65-51 home loss to Florida State clearly demonstrated. In other words, once you get over the name on the front of their jersey's, this Florida team is a flawed bunch.
Bottom line, with revenge on the brain, look for this talented Ohio State squad to build off their win at Cleveland State with another strong win and cover this afternoon at home. Florida is a pretender this season with all the cupcakes they've played, and today they get fully exposed by a motivated Buckeye's squad.
Take Ohio State comfortably over Florida in this college hoops match up.