Pro Info Sports
Saturday, December 22, 2007
4:30 p.m. EST
New Mexico Bowl (Albuquerque, NM)
3 STAR SELECTION
Nevada +3 over NEW MEXICO
The Wolf Pack and the Lobos clash in the 2nd New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque Saturday afternoon. The Lobos hosted last season?s inaugural game, but were unable to turn their homefield advantage into a victory, as the team fell to San Jose State, 20-12.
For the 2007 regular season, New Mexico finished 8-4 while the Wolf Pack, a 49-10 romp in Reno over Louisiana Tech helped extend their season. Nevada dropped a narrow 21-20 outing versus Miami in last year?s MPC Computers Bowl. In fact, each of the last 5 WolfPack Bowl games have been decided by a FG or less. The Lobos have won just two of their past 10 postseason contests, and has fallen in their last five straight bowl appearances.
Nevada started out this season with Nick Graziano at the helm, but an injury put him on the sidelines and nearly derailed the entire campaign. In came Colin Kaepernick and everything seemed right in Reno as he started the last seven games for the squad. In limited play, Kaepernick, who was eventually named the WAC's Freshman of the Year, threw for more than 2,000 yards and 19 touchdowns, against just three interceptions. In addition, the young signal- caller also raced for 567 yards on the ground and scored another six TDs for the Pack in their unique ?Pistol? offense. When it wasn't Kaepernick doing all the dirty work, it was RB Luke Lippincott getting it done. A First-Team All-WAC choice, Lippincott led the conference with his 115 ypg and managed to cross the goal line 15 times for the group. Overall, the team ended up second in the WAC and seventh in the nation in total offense with 489 ypg and 18th in scoring, putting up over 36.3 ppg. The defense barely kept their collective heads above water, allowing a hefty 33 ppg.
QB Donovan Porterie was up and down for New Mexico this season, hitting for 221 ypg and 13 scores, but he also tossed eight interceptions, which made the production of running back Rodney Ferguson so vital. A second-time pick for the All-MWC First Team, Ferguson was also the third-leading receiver for the unit. The bad news for the Lobos is that Ferguson is ineligible to play due to poor grades. He will be sorely missed in the New Mexico offense. The Lobos were good on defense as they normally are under Rocky Long, with just under 21 ppg allowed.
There are numerous reasons we give the WolfPack the edge in this game. For starters, we look to play against teams with a depleted unit. Such is the case for New Mexico in the offensive backfield. Not only is Ferguson out, but so is one of his backups, leaving little depth or experience.
We also can?t back Long in a bowl game, especially as a favorite. If a team is consistently losing their bowl games, it?s usually a sign of a coach that simply does not place a high priority on winning the game and is likely to continue losing to better-prepared opponents.
Even playing at home can work against a team, especially when favored. The team may be overconfident and enjoying the local ?red-carpet? treatment a little too much. Without a trip to a new and interesting place, the game may lose the interest of the players. Meanwhile, the pointspread will provide the line value to the visiting team. This appears to be the case with the Lobos, as some of the players were expressing disappointment in not going somewhere else to play. In a limited number of games, we note that Bowl home favorites are 0-4 ATS since at least 1980 vs. opponents with less rest. The most recent example was New Mexico in their SU loss last year to San Jose State as 3? point favorites.
We also like to play against a Bowl team that is facing an unusual type of offense if they have played and done poorly against a similar-type offense or haven?t faced such a scheme recently. The WolfPack run a very unusual offense with their ?pistol? attack which has been difficult for the Lobos to simulate in practices leading up to this game.
Finally, we note that New Mexico is an ugly 1-12-1 ATS with a spread between -10 and +3 as it is here. The WolfPack should at least make this another tight game, and with multiple factors in their favor we like them to win the game outright.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NEVADA 38 NEW MEXICO 28