SERVICE PLAYS Thurs 12/20

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Scott Spreitzer

(303) Navy vs (304) Utah Game Starts at December 20 2007 18:00 EST Take (303) Navy I'm taking the points with Navy in Thursday's Poinsettia Bowl. You'll hear a lot about Navy's secondary this week when talking heads analyze this game. But Utah QB Brian Johnson is banged-up and has not had a lot of serious reps in preparation. His backup, Tommy Grady, is no great shakes. I saw Utah in person, when they were shutout by UNLV, 27-0. Johnson wasn't 100-percent healthy and only played about half the game. Grady was downright horrible. The problem for Utah in this one is to get re-focused after the heartbreaking defeat in the "Holy War" to BYU. Word is, the Utes aren't exactly crazy about playing in this minor bowl game. Meanwhile, it's basically a home game away from home for the Midshipmen. There will be at least 20-thousand middies in the stands for this one. New HC Ken Niumatalolo has been the offensive coordinator for several seasons at Navy, which means there will be NO changes in preparation or in the game itself. The Midshipmen may miss the direction of Paul Johnson next season and in seasons to come, but this is a tough bunch with key coaches still on the sideline. Navy, as most service academies tend to be, will not only be sky high for this chance, but will also be very well prepared for the Utah game plan. I expect huge numbers from Navy's offense. Although Utah sees the Air Force option each season in MWC play, it's been a long time since they've seen it run this well, or this variation, for that matter. By the way, Utah lost to AFA earlier this season, and I believe they'll drop another to a service academy on Thursday. Navy, plus points in the Poinsettia Bowl. Thanks! GL! Scott.
 
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Dr. Boob

2 Star Selection
**Navy 33 Utah (-8.0) 32 (at Poinsettia Bowl) 06:00 PM Pacific, 20-Dec-07 I?m not sure how fired up Utah will be for this game after losing their season finale to rival BYU, and the Utes? very good defense (4.6 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) isn?t so great defending the run, which is what they?ll have to do in this game. Utah allowed a mediocre 4.8 yards per rushing play this season to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team and they allowed the Air Force option to ramble for 344 ground yards at 5.6 yprp in an early season loss. Navy has averaged 358 yards at 5.9 yprp on the ground this season and the running portion of their option attack should be as good as always in this game. Utah is amongst the best in the nation at defending the pass (4.4 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.4 yppp) but that does them little good against the Midshipmen.

Navy?s defense was horrendous this season defending the pass (8.0 yppp allowed to teams that would average only 5.4 yppp against an average team), but Utah?s Brian Johnson is a below average passer (5.7 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback) and Navy is pretty decent at defending the run (4.6 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.4 yprp). Johnson is likely to post good passing numbers and Utah will run the ball with success too, but Navy should be able to match the Utes on the scoreboard.

My math model takes match-ups into account and the math favors Utah by just 8 points in this game, so the line is fair. The reason for the play is based on technical factors. Navy applies to an 18-1-3 ATS subset of a 35-5-4 ATS bowl situation while also applying to a 40-9 ATS bowl game statistical match-up indicator. Navy?s head coach Paul Johnson has moved onto a job at Georgia Tech, but longtime offensive assistant Ken Niumatalolo will keep the offensive system in place and you can be assured that Navy is working hard preparing for this game. Some teams have difficulty staying focused during the weeks of preparing for a bowl game but Military Academies are very disciplined and that seems to pay off in bowl season. In fact, Army, Navy and Air Force are a combined 20-6 ATS in all bowl games since 1976 (Navy is 6-2 ATS), including 10-2 ATS as an underdog of 7 points or more. Interim coaches are 13-6 ATS in bowl games in recent years, so the coaching change shouldn?t affect the Middies? preparation for this game either. Navy has a long history of playing well away from home, as the Midshipmen are 107-62-2 ATS in all games away from home the last 28 years, including 66-34 ATS as an underdog of more than 6 points. This game is strong enough technically to be at least a 3-Star Best Bet, but I?m uncomfortable making a big play on a team with such a bad pass defense, as Utah could easily decide to throw the ball 50 times to take advantage of that bad Navy secondary ? although I doubt that they will with Darrell Mack in the backfield to run the ball.

I?ll take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 or more.
 
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CTO 11* Basketball

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Last one for a few weeks
lets bring it home in a big way
5~1 this year

December 20

MIAMI-OHIO over *Illinois...CTO scouts tell us Miami-Ohio fired-up to avenge LY?s 50-48 loss vs. Illinois in Chicago. Revenge works. In

aftermath of disheartening come-from-ahead 78-72 OT loss vs. Arizona, Illini?s disgruntled HC Bruce Weber claims he seriously lacks a

creator, and woeful foul shooting continues to be major issue (ugly 59% so far!). RedHawks possess one of the more underrated insideoutside

duos around in fearless 6-5 swingman Bramos (20 ppg, 43% from arc) & 6-7 "throwback" F Pollitz (17 ppg, 7 rpg, 4 apg). And Coles?

methodical, defensively-sticky squad (just 57 ppg) is 8-1 last 9 as an underdog. Upset possible.

MIAMI-OHIO 63 - *Illinois 58 RATING - 11


*** NOTE *** FROM THE GREAT GOLDENGREEK!!

Miami Ohio guard Bramos is listed as questionable at this time, he is their leading scorer

play with caution !!!!!!
 
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Mike Rose -- COMP
Navy @ Utah u65.5 (-110)
Thu Dec 20 '07 9:00p
The 2007-08 College Bowl season kicks off tonight when the Navy Midshipmen and Utah Utes square off in the Poinsettia Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California.

The Midshipmen are coming off another fantastic season that saw them win eight games under the watchful eye of Head Coach Paul Johnson and his staff for the fourth time in six years. Last we saw the Middies, they beat Army for the 6th straight season, which allowed them to capture the Commander in Chief Trophy for the fifth straight season. However, they?ll take the field without HC Johnson for the first time in six years since he accepted the Head Coaching job at Georgia Tech a couple weeks ago. The task of bouncing back from losing the Meineke Car Care Bowl to Boston College last season is now in the hands of Johnson ?s longtime assistant Ken Niumatalolo.

As for the Utes, they got off to a very slow start this season only winning one of their first four games, but they scratched together eight straight wins before the ?Holy War? with BYU in their final game of the season. They had the Cougars on the ropes, but allowed a game winning TD drive in the final 30 seconds and suffered their first loss since September in the process.

Utah opened up as 10-point favorites in this spot with the ?Total? set at 67.5. Navy money has lowered that spread to 8 and the ?Total? has been bet down to 65.

This is the highest posted 'Total' of the season for the Utes, but it's well warranted. Navy boasts an atrocious stop unit that's had problems keeping its opponent off the scoreboard (37 PPG), save for Army who they just flat out own right now. Utah runs a power brand of football offensively, much like the Middies, but they can pass the ball unlike the aforementioned Midshipmen. That being said, I'm expecting the final score of this game to come in on the low side of this 'Total'. Utah by no means wants to take part in a shoot-out with this Navy club. If it happens, they have a much better chance of losing this game outright. Instead, the Utes will look to pound the ball offensively with RB Mack and take what it can get from its passing game when the Middies adjust for the run. Defensively, they'll look to make amends after Air Force (another option/wishbone attack) gouged them way back in September. They?ve only allowed opponents to rush for 91 YPG their L/3 contests, and Navy?s offense will certainly start to press if the Utes force them to pass the ball (Navy offense ranked dead last in the country passing the ball). Look for P Louis Sakoda to play a major role in this game as well pinning the Midshipmen deep in their own territory all game long forcing them to go the length of the field on a number of occasions. This will simply wear the Middies offensive attack out, and play right into the hands of the Utes who want to be very physical tonight and control the tempo of the game from the opening kick.
 
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Ben Burns ------ COMP

Game: Navy at Utah Dec 20 2007 9:00PM

Prediction: over

Reason: Created in 2005, the Pointsetta Bowl is played annually at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego. It features a team from the Mountain West Conference and an "at-large team." Due to fact that there are several naval bases in and around San Diego and due to an agreement with the Pointsetta Bowl, if eligible, that at-large berth belongs to Navy. That's the case this season, as the Midshipmen will square off against the Utah Utes, this year's representative from the Mountain West Conference.


Both teams bring identical 8-4 records into this rather interesting matchup. Navy boasts a high-powered offense but has a weak defense. Utah has a strong defense but a mediocre offense. So, should we expect a high-scoring or a low-scoring contest? Well, an over/under line in the mid-60s tells us that the oddsmaker's are expecting some fireworks. I agree with them.


The last (and only) time that the Midshipmen were in the Pointsetta Bowl, they combined with Colorado State for a whopping 81 points. Naturally, that game finished well above the total, which was 59. Including that result, four of their last five bowl games have finished above the number. This year's Navy team has seen the "over" go 4-2 in six road games with an average combined score of 79 points. The Midshipmen have put up 35 or more points in five straight games, averaging 49 points all by themselves during that stretch. With the exception of Army, they haven't been able to stop anyone though, allowing 179 combined points to Delaware, Notre Dame and North Texas during a 3-game stretch last month. Note that the Midshipmen saw the "over" go 4-0 as underdogs this season, bringing the "over" to 10-3 the last 13 times they were getting points.


The Utes closed out their season with a loss vs. archrival BYU. That's noteworthy as we find the "over" at a highly profitable 17-4 the last 21 times (which had a total) they were coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent. Its also worth mentioning that the Utes have seen the "over" go 4-1 the last five times that they played with two week's rest in between games. The number has come down a couple of points from its opener, giving us some additional line value. Expect a high-scoring game. Consider a play on the OVER
_________________
 
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SharkHandicapping

NCAA Football Poinsettia Bowl Navy vs. Utah 9:00 PM EST

Play On: Utah -7 ?
First off we have waited on this release as the line continues to drop and is now 7 ? everywhere. We can wait a little longer on playing this one and if the line starts to creep back up, grab it then. We might even get a 7 out of it. These teams enter with the same records of 8 ? 4 but we like the 8 Utah wins lot better then Navy?s 8 wins. Utah had won 8 in row before losing their final game 10 ? 17 on the road at Utah and there is no shame in that. Before that they did some damage beating Wyoming 50 ? 0, UCLA 44 ? 7, TCU 27 ? 20, Colorado State 27 ? 3. Navy is well documented and as they rush for over 350 yards a game but their defense does not stop anyone. They allowed N. Illinois to put up 24, N. Texas 62, Notre Dame 44, Delaware 52 in a non lined game and Duke put up 43 points. Navy tries to outscore teams but they won?t be able to outscore Utah and very good Utah defense should make enough defensive stops to put this comfortable away. Take Utah.
 
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Jack Clayton 5-Star Blowout: Steelers/Rams!

5* Steelers at Rams: The Rams actually played the Packers relatively even, despite the final one-sided score. This is a healthy Rams team from earlier in the season, at 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS the last 6 games. Rams defensive coordinator Jim Haslett has an aggressive, high-risk attacking defense which has been successful in the second half of the season. They face a more conservative Pittsburgh offense that is in a rut. They managed just 16 points and 263 yards in an overtime loss to the NY Jets, gained 216 yards in a 3-0 win against the Dolphins, then got shut down by the Patriots and Jaguars. In fact, Jacksonville outgained the Steelers 421-217 Sunday! The Steelers are just 2-4 SU/ATS on the road allowing 20 ppg. An excellent spot for the big home dog. Play the Rams!
 
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THE GOLD SHEET - COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NEWSLETTER


POINSETTIA BOWL
NAVY (8-4) vs. UTAH (8-4)

Thursday, December 20 Night at San Diego, CA (Grass Field)
TEAM GP SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Navy 11 8-3 4-7 39 34 352 87 54-44-7 175 250 48-20-27 +1 1.0 22.8
Utah 12 8-4 7-5 26 16 164 199 36-16-17 132 188 20-12-7 +10 6.3 15.3


*Utah 29 - Navy 26?

Well, the first Jake Peavy-like curveball of the
postseason comes appropriately enough in San Diego, where the Navy flotilla
will attempt to navigate minus HC Paul Johnson, who resigned for a similar
position at Georgia Tech. Longtime offensive assistant Ken Niumatalolo, at
Johnson?s side since his days as Hawaii QB (when Johnson was on Bob
Wagner?s staff), was immediately named as successor, a move applauded by
most mid-Atlantic observers.
Niumatalolo?s promotion should ensure that the Midshipmen system that has
proved so successful under Johnson (with an Annapolis-record five straight
bowl appearances) stays intact. What we?ll find out soon enough is how much
Navy might miss Johnson?s in-game strategizing, which insiders have long
believed as shrewd as any in the nation. Although Niumatalolo held the
offensive coordinator title the past few seasons, rest assured it was Johnson?s
attack, and his scheming and adjustments might be difficult to replace.
But we?re inclined to give Niumatalolo, who?s been at Johnson?s side for
almost 20 years and was the co-architect of the Mids? prolific spread option that
once again led the nation in rushing (352 ypg), the benefit of the doubt. There
will be no changes in structure, terminology, or the playbook for Navy, and
Johnson?s fingerprints are still going to be on the gameplan for this battle. The
Mids? discipline and execution, staples of their recent success, are not going to
disappear overnight.
Yet there are some significant fundamental concerns for Navy. Competent
(and some not-so competent) offenses did significant damage to a young and
undersized Mid stop unit that ranked 99th overall (438 ypg) and 109th (36.5 ppg)
in points allowed, and Utah figures to do some business as well. Especially
since the Utes began to balance their attack with emergence of RB Darrell Mack
(1128 YR), whose thrusts out of the Utah ?Shotgun Spread? opened passing
lanes for playmaking QB Brian Johnson, finally healthy down stretch after a
series of injuries past few seasons. Moreover, Kyle Whittingham?s robust ?D?
ranked 15th nationally, and along with a re-energized ?O,? fueled a 7-game win
streak (and 6 straight covers) that only ended in a bitter season-ending loss at BYU.
The Mids? spread option, however, has proved a great equalizer, especially in
recent bowl games (three straight postseason covers for Navy, along with a pair
of wins over MWC foes), and it?s worth noting that Utah had problems vs. a
similarly-designed Air Force attack in September, allowing 334 YR. So as long
as QB ?Kaipo? limits mistakes, Mids likely to stay within earshot once more.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)
 
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NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP NEWSLETTER

POINSETTIA BOWL
NAVY (8-4) VS UTAH (8-4)

This is their 1st meeting but Utah faces a similar off every yr in MWC foe AF. This is a school record 5th
consec Navy bowl all under former HC Johnson (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) & the new HC Ken Niumatalolo (asst HC
with 10 yrs exp at Navy coaching the off) will be coaching his 1st gm. This is also UT?s 5th consec bowl and
they have won their last 6 and covered the last 5. Whittingham has been the DC at Utah S/?95 and this is his
8th bowl trip (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS). The Utes played 7 bowl elig tms TY and were 4-3 ATS outscoring foes 25-19 but
being outgained 374-323. Navy faced 4 bowl tms and went 1-3 SU & ATS being outscored 35-28 & outgained
474-405. UT was allotted 10,000 tickets but has struggled with sales as LY they sold 1,500 tickets and 4,000 the
yr prior. There is a large Naval presence in the SD area, and the last time Navy attended this bowl (?05 51-30
win over CSU, -3), they had 20,000+ fans which is one reason why Navy was guaranteed a spot last spring
(if they achieved 6 wins). They both played AF and Utah lost 20-12 being outgained 390-313 while Navy won
31-20 but was outgained 474-381. This is the final gm for 17 Ute seniors while Navy has 22 seniors. Utah is
6-2-1 ATS as a fav of 7+ the L/2Y, but Navy was 18-8 ATS as an AD under Johnson. After Utah?s loss to BYU
Nov 24th, they started practicing for Navy right away, even before the bowl matchups were announced. Navy
traditionally takes the wk after Army off for finals and may only practice 8-9 times prior to the bowl.
Navy came into the yr with just 3 returning starters on D, but in the 2nd gm of the yr they lost their
top ret tackler from ?06, LB Sovie and their starting FS Deliz (1 of only 3 seniors in the secondary) for the
yr. After that, the defense struggled mightily with the offense practically forced to score on every poss for
the Mids to win a gm. Luckily Kaheaku-Enhada proved to be a highly proficient triple option QB leading
the tm in rushing and able to get the ball downfield (17.3 yd per comp). Navy?s bevy of talented backs
have helped the Mids become the 1st team in NCAA history to lead the nation in rushing for 3 consec
yrs. Navy?s productive offense (#36) has forced the tm to punt only 21 times TY (least in nation). Navy?s
D finished #117 overall (438 ypg, 36.5 ppg all?d) and last in our pass eff D with 3 true frosh playing major
roles in the secondary. Navy finished with 4 straight wins incl ending their 43 gm losing streak to ND, and
the D held rival Army to 3 pts to clinch a school record 5th consec Commander-In-Chief?s Trophy.
Utah had high expectations heading into the ssn, but those were quickly put on the back burner when
QB Johnson and PS#17JC RB Matt Asiata went out during the 1st game. UT decided to pull the RS off of
Mack (#30 NCAA rushing) who ended the ssn with six 100 yd rushing gms. The Utes were struggling to find
an identity losing to AF to fall to 0-2 before demolishing UCLA 44-6. The next wk they were shutout for the
1st time S/?93 by lowly UNLV and Whittingham issued a challenge to his tm ?to decide who we want to be.?
Johnson returned vs Utah St and it was pretty clear who the Utes wanted to be as they went on to win 7 straight
incl a national TV upset of L?ville in Johnson?s 2nd gm back (312 pass yds). Johnson has missed some bowl
practices (shoulder again) but they are trying to work him in gradually and he should be fine for this one. The
OL has given up 28 sks (7.5%). They have lost 9 starters due to inj since fall camp, 4 of whom were lost for the
ssn and 5 who missed at least one gm. They now take on the nation?s top rush off but could be without their
top rush defender, Long, who suffered a shld?r separation (which Whittingham calls worse than Johnson?s) vs
BYU. He is listed as ?touch and go? for this gm (check philsteele.com). The Utes D rank #2 in both the NCAA
and our in pass eff D and #3 in the nation in scoring D. They have tallied 36 sks TY. MWC ST POY Sakoda
leads the nation for active dual K/P?s in career P?s and yds. Richards ranks #9 in the nation in PR avg.
After starting the ssn 1-3, Utah has the chance to finish with 9 wins for just the 5th time in school history.
LY Navy lost their bowl in heartbreaking fashion on a fmbl?d snap which set up a 37 yd gm winning FG
for BC which should serve as strong motivation. Fortunately Navy?s high-powered off shouldn?t drop-off too
much with new HC Niumatalolo taking over for Johnson who left just 2 wks prior to the bowl. Navy took the
wk off for finals after Army and won?t hit their full allotment of practices but service academies tend not get
distracted with the pageantry surrounding ?bowl week?. Navy?s offense has avg?d 49 ppg the L/5 and they?ve
needed them as their inj depleted D has allowed 40+ pts in 7 gms this ssn. Utah?s D finished the ssn with an
impressive 4 week run (7.5 ppg) but 3 of those gm were vs the #70 (CSU), #84 (NM), & #106 (WY) offenses.
Utah is the more balanced team and we?ll call for a 41-31 Utes win. We?ll also call for the ?over? as Utah can
move the ball on Navy?s D and the Midshipmen will have some new wrinkles on offense with their new HC. FORECAST: OVER 66.5 RATING: 3★
 
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JOHN CAMBELL FROM COVERS:


San Diego County Credit Union Pointsettia Bowl
Navy vs. Utah (-9, 67)
Looks like Navy coach Paul Johnson is off to Atlanta. The Middies were already inspired by the wonderful name of this bowl, but now they?ll be really inspired in the last game under their beloved coach.
Pick: Navy +9
 
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POINTWISE NEWSLETTER

POINSETTIA
BOWL
UTAH (8-4) vs NAVY (8-4)
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 20
9:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Utah ............ 39.7 ...26-26 ... 19-17 .. 164-132 ...199-188 .. +10 . Utah
Navy............ 34.3 ...40-37 ... 24-24 .. 352-173 .....93-266 .. - 1 . by 13.1 Pts
ANALYSIS
Here we go! The first of no less than thirty two Bowl Games! As we noted on
our '06 Bowl Report #1, we released our very first bowl edition (Tues, Dec 16,
1969), and it consisted of exactly 8 Bowls: Sun, Gator, Peach, Blue Bonnet,
Rose, Cotton, Orange, & Sugar. Now the "bowl eligible" mission seems the main
quest for the vast majority of marginal squads, many of whom make it into post
season play. As far as this contest is concerned, a couple of bowl veterans surely
figure to give the fans their money's worth. For the Middies of Navy, this marks
their 5th-straight winning season, something that they hadn't accomplished since
a similar streak in 1978-82. And they've done it in their usual style, namely with
an overland game that has been their forte for ages. At season's end, they ranked
#1 in the nation for the 3rd straight year, & they've finished at #3 or better in all
6 year's of Johnson's reign, but he has now departed. The highlight game, was
snapping their 44-game losing streak vs Notre Dame, altho it took all 46 pts to do
it, as they allowed 44 pts & 375 yds to an Irish team which fielded the nation's
worst offense. Navy is a defensive sieve, ranking 109th in scoring. Try ceding
635 yds & 62 pts to a North Texas squad, which won 2 games. A year ago, Navy
faced Boston College in the Meineke Bowl, with the Eagles entering on a 6-game
bowl winning streak. And this season, they take on a Utah team which has also
won its last 6 bowl games (covering the last 5). The Utes, obviously, are more
balanced, with RB Mack, & QB Johnson (65%) the leaders, & feature a defense
which ranks 14th in the nation. It is rare that we buck a service academy team in
a bowl game, but that Middie "D" is just too much to ignore. Thus, a mild Ute call.
PROPHECY: UTAH 44 - Navy 31 RATING: 6
 
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