Drew Gordon
Thursday Plays:
1. 200,000♦ Utah
2. 50,000♦ Rams
3. 50,000♦ Pittsburgh
4. 50,000♦ Heat
1. Utah- This one comes down to defense, plain and simple. We all know both these teams can put points on the board in a hurry, the question is can the Utes defense slow down the Midshipmen's vaunted option attack? The answer is yes and here's why:
First things first, despite their success, the Midshipmen are clearly a one-dimensional team. Problem for them is they are facing an excellent Utah defense, which allowed just 7.5 ppg over their last 4 games, with almost a month to prepare for the option attack. Also of note, DT Gabe Long is listed as probable, which is great news for the Utes, as he's their best run-stuffer and a mammoth for Navy's smallish unit to contend with.
Utah on the other hand, has a lot more balanced attack, featuring dual-threat Brian Johnson (listed as probable and will play) and 1100+ yard rusher Darrell Mack (13 TDs). I mention this because Navy's paper mache' defense has no chance at slowing down this Utes attack. Because they're a service academy, their stop-unit is smaller than most, and really struggled all season, allowing 36 ppg on 438 total yards per game. Look for Utah to march up and down the field on this Navy defense all game long.
Bottom line, while Navy's offense has been rock-solid this season, they're about to run into a well-prepared, well-rested, Utah defense. On the other side of the coin, there's little hope the Midshipmen's defense will be able to contain the Utes for long, as the margin grows, Navy's running attack becomes its own worst enemy. Utah rolls!
Take Utah comfortably over Navy as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Rams- This is a great spot for the Rams, hosting a sputtering Steelers team that's just 2-4 SUATS on the road this season, with losses at Arizona, at Denver, and the New York Jets already this season.
Critics will argue the Rams are 3-11 team led by a gimpy quarterback, which is all true. However, this gimpy quarterback happens to Marc Bulger, who's going to play and has always excelled indoors, posting a 97 QB rating and throwing 33 TDs versus 13 picks over his last 20 indoors. Make no mistake, the entire Rams offense is predicated on speed, which is exactly what they'll get in the controlled conditions of the Edward Jones Dome.
Now let's talk Pittsburgh, as the Steelers have looked a lot more vulnerable over their last several games than at any other time this season. In fact, they're allowing more points (24 to 22) than the Rams defense over their last 3 games. And scoring only 2 points more than the Rams (19 to 17) over that span as well. With the Steelers defense struggling a bit, expect heavy doses of Steven Jackson, which can only mean good things for this Rams team.
Bottom line, while I expect the Steelers to win this game, the Rams offense is too good at home to lay this many points with Pittsburgh. Steelers looked good last week at Jacksonville offensively, but their defense was shredded by Garrard and company... More of the same tonight, as this one is a lot closer than Vegas wants you to believe.
Take the Rams plus the points over the Steelers in this NFL match up.
3. Pittsburgh- Underestimate the Panthers at your own risk in this spot, as they've got a lot to prove and are highly motivated against a solid, but still beatable Duke squad. Its true Pitt has yet to face a Top-25 team, but wins at Duquesne and at Washington aren't gimme's either.
The difference in this one comes down to style of play, as both teams can score, but they do it in different ways. A more perimter-based attack from Duke has been their calling card, but they'll be hard-pressed to shoot their usual 50% against an aggressive Panthers defense. Pitt is allowing just 58 ppg on 38% shooting, including 28% from 3-point, which is significant because you have to be able to defend the 3-point line against the Blue Devils.
The Panthers use a more "classic" style of play, attacking from the inside/out with forwards Sam Young and DeJuan Blair. Their 3 guard attack of Cook, Fields, and Ramon may not share the pedigree of Duke's backcourt, but they are effective and know how to take care of the basketball (102 assists to 42 turnovers). By slowing down the tempo with their inside game, and playing hard-nosed perimeter defense on the other end, look for Pitt to keep this game competitive throughout.
Bottom line, both teams are playing with a lot of confidence, and I see no reason why this game doesn't come down to the waning seconds. The Panthers maybe unproven thus far, but you better believe they're looking at this contest as a chance for a signature win. We'll take the points, but don't be surprised if Pitt walks away with the outrigth upset here.
Take Pittsburgh plus the points over Duke in this college hoops match up.
4. Heat- Coming off a overtime loss yesterday, in a game where they lost Alonzo Mourning for the season, siding with the Heat here may seem risky, but its really not and here's why:
First of all, the injury to Mourning is significant, but the fact its going to force an incredibly lazy Shaquille O'neal to get up off his ass and play more miuntes is a good thing. O'neal is more effective when he can wear on an opponent over the course of 4 quarters, and the Nets have absolutely no one that can stop him. At the very least Krstic was able to force O'neal to guard the perimeter, but with him out the Nets are extremely vulnerable down-low.
Second, Dwayne Wade is back, dropping 36 points, 10 assists and 6 rebounds on the Hawks yesterday, look for Wade to shred a much slower Nets backcourt. Kidd and Carter are still solid players, but are both showing signs of age, and Carter ankle has been an issue for most of the season. Wade is one of the few players capable of single-handedly taking over a game, and he steps up to the plate once again tonight.
Finally, while the Heat has been nothing special at home this year, there's no question they "get up" for the Nets, going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS over their last 9 meetings with New Jersey. Heat need this win badly, and I say they ride Wade and O'neal right to the W and our payday tonight in Miami.
Take the Heat over the Nets in this NBA match up.
