SERVICE PLAYS Thurs 12/20
- Thread starter miss-reb
- Start date
Black Magic Sports for December 20th
NCAA Basketball:
5 Unit Black Magic ESPN Top-10 Surefire on Pittsburgh +5.5
The Pittsburgh Panthers and Duke Blue Devils own identical 10-0 records to start the season. We will side with the Panthers and their experience in this neutral court match-up at Madison Square Garden tonight in New York. Duke is 1-8 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Duke is 3-11 ATS vs. top-caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons. This will be Duke?s toughest opponent of the season and we have no doubts that Pitt will pull off the upset. Head coach Jamie Dixon is 15-6 ATS after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better as the coach of Pittsburgh. Cash in with Pitt as the underdog.
3 Unit Sharp Play on Oklahoma -2.5
The Oklahoma Sooners are showing awesome value tonight at home against Gonzaga. Gonzaga is still without their best player in Josh Heytvelt due to a hampering foot injury. They are also without Theo Davis due to personal issues. The Zags cannot win this big road game without those two studs. Gonzaga has only played one true road game against St. Joe?s where they came out on top by just 5 points. This will be the Zag?s toughest competition to this point and they won?t be ready for the effort Oklahoma puts on their home hardwood Thursday. Oklahoma is 13-5 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with Oklahoma as the favorite.
NFL:
4 Unit Steelers/Rams BEST BET on St. Louis +8
Pittsburgh?s struggles on the road will continue as they take on the Rams in St. Louis Thursday night. The Steelers have lost 4 out of their 6 road games this season. The Steelers? run defense got exploited last week by the Jacksonville Jaguars. A healthy Stephen Jackson will have his way with the Steelers? defense tonight after posting 143 yards rushing against a very good Green Bay defense last week. Pittsburgh can?t focus in on Jackson because Marc Bulger and his targets at wideout will burn the Steelers? secondary if they do. Pittsburgh is just 2-10 ATS after being outgained by 150 or more yards in their previous game. Cash in with St. Louis as the underdog.
NCAA Football:
4 Unit Navy/Utah BEST BET on Navy +8
The Navy Midshipmen are getting overlooked in this match-up with Utah. Navy is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Mountain West Conference opponents. They absolutely own this conference and the same will hold true tonight. Don?t be surprised when Navy wins this game outright. The Midshipmen own the nation?s best rushing offense at 351 yards per game. Head coach Kyle Wittingham is just 2-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah. Navy is 15-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. Navy is 10-1 ATS in road games after gaining 125 or less passing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Navy gets it done on the ground and with timely play-action passing, the Midshipmen will make more big plays than Utah to come out on top Thursday. Cash in with Navy as the underdog.
NBA:
3 Unit Sharp Play on L.A. Lakers -2
The L.A. Lakers are one of the most underrated teams in the league. Cleveland is suffering and NBA Finals hangover and their true colors have showed this season. The Cavs have lost 9 out of their last 11 games. The Lakers have won 6 out of their last 7 games overall. Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom, Luke Walton, Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic have really stepped up their games for the Lakers this season. Cleveland lost by 18 points to the New York Knicks last night to show how badly they are struggling right now. The Lakers are 8-1 ATS against poor defenses allowing 99 or more points a game this season. Cleveland is 1-12 ATS in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Cavs are not a good bounce-back team. We will cash in with the red hot Lakers as the favorite Thursday.
NCAA Basketball:
5 Unit Black Magic ESPN Top-10 Surefire on Pittsburgh +5.5
The Pittsburgh Panthers and Duke Blue Devils own identical 10-0 records to start the season. We will side with the Panthers and their experience in this neutral court match-up at Madison Square Garden tonight in New York. Duke is 1-8 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Duke is 3-11 ATS vs. top-caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons. This will be Duke?s toughest opponent of the season and we have no doubts that Pitt will pull off the upset. Head coach Jamie Dixon is 15-6 ATS after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better as the coach of Pittsburgh. Cash in with Pitt as the underdog.
3 Unit Sharp Play on Oklahoma -2.5
The Oklahoma Sooners are showing awesome value tonight at home against Gonzaga. Gonzaga is still without their best player in Josh Heytvelt due to a hampering foot injury. They are also without Theo Davis due to personal issues. The Zags cannot win this big road game without those two studs. Gonzaga has only played one true road game against St. Joe?s where they came out on top by just 5 points. This will be the Zag?s toughest competition to this point and they won?t be ready for the effort Oklahoma puts on their home hardwood Thursday. Oklahoma is 13-5 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Cash in with Oklahoma as the favorite.
NFL:
4 Unit Steelers/Rams BEST BET on St. Louis +8
Pittsburgh?s struggles on the road will continue as they take on the Rams in St. Louis Thursday night. The Steelers have lost 4 out of their 6 road games this season. The Steelers? run defense got exploited last week by the Jacksonville Jaguars. A healthy Stephen Jackson will have his way with the Steelers? defense tonight after posting 143 yards rushing against a very good Green Bay defense last week. Pittsburgh can?t focus in on Jackson because Marc Bulger and his targets at wideout will burn the Steelers? secondary if they do. Pittsburgh is just 2-10 ATS after being outgained by 150 or more yards in their previous game. Cash in with St. Louis as the underdog.
NCAA Football:
4 Unit Navy/Utah BEST BET on Navy +8
The Navy Midshipmen are getting overlooked in this match-up with Utah. Navy is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Mountain West Conference opponents. They absolutely own this conference and the same will hold true tonight. Don?t be surprised when Navy wins this game outright. The Midshipmen own the nation?s best rushing offense at 351 yards per game. Head coach Kyle Wittingham is just 2-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Utah. Navy is 15-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. Navy is 10-1 ATS in road games after gaining 125 or less passing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Navy gets it done on the ground and with timely play-action passing, the Midshipmen will make more big plays than Utah to come out on top Thursday. Cash in with Navy as the underdog.
NBA:
3 Unit Sharp Play on L.A. Lakers -2
The L.A. Lakers are one of the most underrated teams in the league. Cleveland is suffering and NBA Finals hangover and their true colors have showed this season. The Cavs have lost 9 out of their last 11 games. The Lakers have won 6 out of their last 7 games overall. Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom, Luke Walton, Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic have really stepped up their games for the Lakers this season. Cleveland lost by 18 points to the New York Knicks last night to show how badly they are struggling right now. The Lakers are 8-1 ATS against poor defenses allowing 99 or more points a game this season. Cleveland is 1-12 ATS in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Cavs are not a good bounce-back team. We will cash in with the red hot Lakers as the favorite Thursday.
ATS LOCK
Hoops
3 Okla -2 1/2
ATS FIANCIAL
Hoops
3 Duke -5 1/2
Giant posted financial football earlier in this post.
This is F*ckin ridicumous. I am loading on TB!:mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :142smilie :142smilie
Rocketman Sports
3 * Miami Heat -2
New Jersey is 2-8 ATS in December this year. Miami is 19-8 SU at home vs New Jersey since 1996. NEW JERSEY is 38-57 ATS when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last 3 seasons. NEW JERSEY is 21-33 ATS first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NEW JERSEY is 1-9 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. NEW JERSEY is 2-11 ATS after playing a home game this season. We'll play Miami for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Rocketman CFB
1* Utah Utes -7.5
Utah is 8-2 ATS in a bowl game since 1992. Utah is 23-7 ATS since 1992 when playing with 2 weeks or more rest. Utah is 23-9 ATS since 1992 after a bye week. Utah is 8-2 ATS since 1992 in games played on a neutral field. Navy is allowing 36.5 points per game overall this year and 35.7 points per game on the road this season. Utah is allowing only 15.6 points per game overall this year. Utah is 7-2 ATS last 9 on grass. We'll play Utah for 1 unit tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
3 * Miami Heat -2
New Jersey is 2-8 ATS in December this year. Miami is 19-8 SU at home vs New Jersey since 1996. NEW JERSEY is 38-57 ATS when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last 3 seasons. NEW JERSEY is 21-33 ATS first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NEW JERSEY is 1-9 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. NEW JERSEY is 2-11 ATS after playing a home game this season. We'll play Miami for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Rocketman CFB
1* Utah Utes -7.5
Utah is 8-2 ATS in a bowl game since 1992. Utah is 23-7 ATS since 1992 when playing with 2 weeks or more rest. Utah is 23-9 ATS since 1992 after a bye week. Utah is 8-2 ATS since 1992 in games played on a neutral field. Navy is allowing 36.5 points per game overall this year and 35.7 points per game on the road this season. Utah is allowing only 15.6 points per game overall this year. Utah is 7-2 ATS last 9 on grass. We'll play Utah for 1 unit tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Rocketman Sports
Pittsburgh @ St Louis 8:15 PM EST
Play On: UNDER 44 1/2
The Under is 1-5 this year when Pittsburgh has played a team with a losing record. The Under is 1-5 last 3 years when Pittsburgh plays in a dome. The Under is 2-9 last 3 years when Pittsburgh plays on artificial turf. Pittsburgh is allowing only 15.6 points per game this year. St Louis is scoring only 15.7 points per game this year. We'll recommend a small play on the UNDER tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Pittsburgh @ St Louis 8:15 PM EST
Play On: UNDER 44 1/2
The Under is 1-5 this year when Pittsburgh has played a team with a losing record. The Under is 1-5 last 3 years when Pittsburgh plays in a dome. The Under is 2-9 last 3 years when Pittsburgh plays on artificial turf. Pittsburgh is allowing only 15.6 points per game this year. St Louis is scoring only 15.7 points per game this year. We'll recommend a small play on the UNDER tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
THE REAL ANIMAL- part 2
ADD:
Pick title: 4* Utah 'UNDER' 65
Pick Date: 12/20/2007
Pick description:
In reviewing Utah?s bowl history I found it interesting the Utes are extremely stingy when it comes to allowing points and the ?UNDER? was a perfect 5-0 in bowls since the 2001 season. In their five bowl wins and covers, Utah allowed a total of 36 points. This year Utah is #15 in the nation in total defense and was exceptional against the run down the stretch. In their final seven games, the Utes yielded just 155, 81, 37, 136, 94, 62, and 26 yards rushing (average 84.4). While Navy gets all the attention when it comes to running the football, it should be pointed out that Utah averaged over 200 yards on the ground in their eight wins this year. It?s kind of rare to see a total in the 60?s when the favored team just completed a regular-season against far better throwing offenses (Mountain West) allowing just 15.6 points 320 points per game. In the ?here?s something I bet you didn?t know category,? only Ohio State allowed fewer touchdowns than Utah this year. The Utes permitted 20 touchdown, four fewer than Virginia Tech. Utah also was #3 in the nation in scoring defense. That statistic is really impressive again considering their starting QB missed 3 ? games and their #1 rusher was lost in the opener to injury. Brian Johnson has really had to modify his game as Utah?s starting quarterback. There was a time when he was a two-headed monster and was an elite rushing QB. But because of several leg injuries, that?s not the case anymore. His high this year in rushing was just 37 yards against Louisville. By comparison, Johnson ran for more than 37 yards eight times in the 2005 season. Utah is successful on the ground because of their system and not Johnson, although his passing capability keeps the other side honest, something Navy?s can?t say. Also worth noting is bowl totals are always inflated because the public loves playing ?OVERS?. Utah is #81 in the country in total offense and I wouldn?t exactly use the term ?explosive? as an adjective. But they have the capability of controlling the clock. Coach Whittingham is no dummy and he knows the best defense against Navy?s vaunted rushing attack is keeping them off the field. I don?t think the Utah defense is getting near the respect they are entitled to with this high total. Navy is #109 in scoring defense allowing 36.5 points per game. But I think some of that was fatigue and with an extra 20 days to prepare, they may be better tonight. Meanwhile although Navy hired their offensive coordinator as head coach, it should be pointed out that Coach Johnson did the play calling for the offense and of course now is at Georgia Tech. 4* ?UNDER? the total of 65.
ADD:
Pick title: 4* Utah 'UNDER' 65
Pick Date: 12/20/2007
Pick description:
In reviewing Utah?s bowl history I found it interesting the Utes are extremely stingy when it comes to allowing points and the ?UNDER? was a perfect 5-0 in bowls since the 2001 season. In their five bowl wins and covers, Utah allowed a total of 36 points. This year Utah is #15 in the nation in total defense and was exceptional against the run down the stretch. In their final seven games, the Utes yielded just 155, 81, 37, 136, 94, 62, and 26 yards rushing (average 84.4). While Navy gets all the attention when it comes to running the football, it should be pointed out that Utah averaged over 200 yards on the ground in their eight wins this year. It?s kind of rare to see a total in the 60?s when the favored team just completed a regular-season against far better throwing offenses (Mountain West) allowing just 15.6 points 320 points per game. In the ?here?s something I bet you didn?t know category,? only Ohio State allowed fewer touchdowns than Utah this year. The Utes permitted 20 touchdown, four fewer than Virginia Tech. Utah also was #3 in the nation in scoring defense. That statistic is really impressive again considering their starting QB missed 3 ? games and their #1 rusher was lost in the opener to injury. Brian Johnson has really had to modify his game as Utah?s starting quarterback. There was a time when he was a two-headed monster and was an elite rushing QB. But because of several leg injuries, that?s not the case anymore. His high this year in rushing was just 37 yards against Louisville. By comparison, Johnson ran for more than 37 yards eight times in the 2005 season. Utah is successful on the ground because of their system and not Johnson, although his passing capability keeps the other side honest, something Navy?s can?t say. Also worth noting is bowl totals are always inflated because the public loves playing ?OVERS?. Utah is #81 in the country in total offense and I wouldn?t exactly use the term ?explosive? as an adjective. But they have the capability of controlling the clock. Coach Whittingham is no dummy and he knows the best defense against Navy?s vaunted rushing attack is keeping them off the field. I don?t think the Utah defense is getting near the respect they are entitled to with this high total. Navy is #109 in scoring defense allowing 36.5 points per game. But I think some of that was fatigue and with an extra 20 days to prepare, they may be better tonight. Meanwhile although Navy hired their offensive coordinator as head coach, it should be pointed out that Coach Johnson did the play calling for the offense and of course now is at Georgia Tech. 4* ?UNDER? the total of 65.
Wolkosky Milan
329-266-13 last one hundred seventeen days
3-0 Yesterday
Today:
10* PIT/STL UNDER 43?
10* UTAH -7?
10* MIAMI -2
10* LAL/CLE UNDER 206
329-266-13 last one hundred seventeen days
3-0 Yesterday
Today:
10* PIT/STL UNDER 43?
10* UTAH -7?
10* MIAMI -2
10* LAL/CLE UNDER 206
Miss-Reb
main event is --------25 star
insider---------------------20
ko-------------------------15
tko.........................10
he is not 78% on anything i post most of his plays here, can anyone here tell me that he is 78% on his ko's?
main event is --------25 star
insider---------------------20
ko-------------------------15
tko.........................10
he is not 78% on anything i post most of his plays here, can anyone here tell me that he is 78% on his ko's?
spritzer--
ko........................ole miss
tko........................gonzaga
4 star hammer..........duke
3 star hammer.................lakers
direct line release(for top clients)............navy over
tko.......................navy
5 star total...............rams over
ko........................ole miss
tko........................gonzaga
4 star hammer..........duke
3 star hammer.................lakers
direct line release(for top clients)............navy over
tko.......................navy
5 star total...............rams over
DR BOB NFL
Pittsburgh 20 ST. LOUIS 13 UNDER 44.0
20-Dec-07 05:15 PM Pacific Time
The side on this game looks like it should be left alone, but the Under looks like a very good play. I just don?t understand how they can post a total this high. Pittsburgh?s games have averaged 39.2 total points this season and the Rams? games have averaged 40.6 points this year. The NFL average for total points is 42.8 points and both teams average below that number, so how can you have a total above the NFL average? Pittsburgh?s 39.2 total points average comes against a schedule that combines to average 45 total points per game, so the Steelers? games are 5.8 points lower scoring than what a normal team would average against the same schedule. The Steelers have played a couple of extreme bad weather games ? at home against Miami and last week against Jacksonville ? and taking those games out gives Pittsburgh a compensated total scoring of 4.2 points less than average instead of -5.8 points. The Rams have totaled 40.6 points against teams that combine to average 42.7 total points, so St. Louis games are 2.1 point lower scoring than average. If Steelers? games are 4.2 points lower scoring than average and Rams? games are 2.1 points lower scoring than average then you would expect a game that is 6.3 points lower scoring than average, which is 36.5 points. But, the median total is a bit more than 1 point less than the average total points, so that would give us 35.5 points or so as a total. The games in the dome have historically been 1 point higher scoring than Rams? games overall since 1995 (when they started playing in St. Louis in the dome), so that puts us back at 36.5 points. Using projected yardage and adjusting for current personnel (like Stephen Jackson being back for the Rams) actually results in a projected 33 ? points. Pittsburgh?s below average offense (5.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) will move the ball at a decent clip against a Rams? defense that is 0.2 yppl worse than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). The Rams offense, however, doesn?t figure to score much against a very good Steelers? defense that has dominated bad attacks this season. St. Louis is a bit better running the ball in 6 games since Steven Jackson returned from injury (they are 0.2 ypr worse than average for the season but average running the ball the last 6 weeks), but Marc Bulger is still horrible. Bulger has averaged only 5.1 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback). The Rams are 0.6 yards per play worse than an average team and they?ll be up against a pissed off Steelers? defense that is 0.7 yppl better than average (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). St. Louis has faced 3 good defensive teams this season (Tampa Bay, Dallas, and Baltimore with their starting secondary intact) and they scored 3 points against the Bucs, 7 points against the Cowboys, and 3 points against the Ravens in those games. The Rams? median points scored this year is 13.5 points and they aren?t likely to top that against a Steelers? defense that has allowed an average of average of just 9 points in 5 games against below average offensive teams (Buffalo, SF, Baltimore, NY Jets, and Miami). If the Rams are not likely to score more than 13 points then Pittsburgh would have to score more than 30 points to approach 43 ? total points in this game. That could happen, but Pittsburgh has scored 30 plus points only 4 times in 14 games and the Rams have allowed 30 points or more only 4 times in 14 games.
I?ll go UNDER in a 3-Star Best Bet at 43 points or higher and in a 2-Star Best Bet from 42 ? points to 41 points
__________________
Pittsburgh 20 ST. LOUIS 13 UNDER 44.0
20-Dec-07 05:15 PM Pacific Time
The side on this game looks like it should be left alone, but the Under looks like a very good play. I just don?t understand how they can post a total this high. Pittsburgh?s games have averaged 39.2 total points this season and the Rams? games have averaged 40.6 points this year. The NFL average for total points is 42.8 points and both teams average below that number, so how can you have a total above the NFL average? Pittsburgh?s 39.2 total points average comes against a schedule that combines to average 45 total points per game, so the Steelers? games are 5.8 points lower scoring than what a normal team would average against the same schedule. The Steelers have played a couple of extreme bad weather games ? at home against Miami and last week against Jacksonville ? and taking those games out gives Pittsburgh a compensated total scoring of 4.2 points less than average instead of -5.8 points. The Rams have totaled 40.6 points against teams that combine to average 42.7 total points, so St. Louis games are 2.1 point lower scoring than average. If Steelers? games are 4.2 points lower scoring than average and Rams? games are 2.1 points lower scoring than average then you would expect a game that is 6.3 points lower scoring than average, which is 36.5 points. But, the median total is a bit more than 1 point less than the average total points, so that would give us 35.5 points or so as a total. The games in the dome have historically been 1 point higher scoring than Rams? games overall since 1995 (when they started playing in St. Louis in the dome), so that puts us back at 36.5 points. Using projected yardage and adjusting for current personnel (like Stephen Jackson being back for the Rams) actually results in a projected 33 ? points. Pittsburgh?s below average offense (5.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) will move the ball at a decent clip against a Rams? defense that is 0.2 yppl worse than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). The Rams offense, however, doesn?t figure to score much against a very good Steelers? defense that has dominated bad attacks this season. St. Louis is a bit better running the ball in 6 games since Steven Jackson returned from injury (they are 0.2 ypr worse than average for the season but average running the ball the last 6 weeks), but Marc Bulger is still horrible. Bulger has averaged only 5.1 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback). The Rams are 0.6 yards per play worse than an average team and they?ll be up against a pissed off Steelers? defense that is 0.7 yppl better than average (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). St. Louis has faced 3 good defensive teams this season (Tampa Bay, Dallas, and Baltimore with their starting secondary intact) and they scored 3 points against the Bucs, 7 points against the Cowboys, and 3 points against the Ravens in those games. The Rams? median points scored this year is 13.5 points and they aren?t likely to top that against a Steelers? defense that has allowed an average of average of just 9 points in 5 games against below average offensive teams (Buffalo, SF, Baltimore, NY Jets, and Miami). If the Rams are not likely to score more than 13 points then Pittsburgh would have to score more than 30 points to approach 43 ? total points in this game. That could happen, but Pittsburgh has scored 30 plus points only 4 times in 14 games and the Rams have allowed 30 points or more only 4 times in 14 games.
I?ll go UNDER in a 3-Star Best Bet at 43 points or higher and in a 2-Star Best Bet from 42 ? points to 41 points
__________________
cokin--
fat man release..............navy,duke
champ club(highest rated play)............ole miss
window..........................elon
3 star action play.............se miss st
under the hat..............lakers
feist--
personal best.................st marys
inner ciecle...................troy
5 star executive.............ole miss
personal best.................cavs
inner circle....................rockets
total...........................hous over
5 star executive gow..........nets
platinum..............navy
fat man release..............navy,duke
champ club(highest rated play)............ole miss
window..........................elon
3 star action play.............se miss st
under the hat..............lakers
feist--
personal best.................st marys
inner ciecle...................troy
5 star executive.............ole miss
personal best.................cavs
inner circle....................rockets
total...........................hous over
5 star executive gow..........nets
platinum..............navy
