SERVICE PLAYS Thurs 12/20
- Thread starter miss-reb
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SMI Picks
SMI Picks
CFB- Navy+ 8
NFL- Under 43
CBB-
Cal St. Ful -6.5
St. Marys -8.5
Comp NBA
Cleve Cavs +2.5 Lebron shows Kobe who"s next
SMI Picks
CFB- Navy+ 8
NFL- Under 43
CBB-
Cal St. Ful -6.5
St. Marys -8.5
Comp NBA
Cleve Cavs +2.5 Lebron shows Kobe who"s next
This is a free pick - i should have the rest later:
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Elon College Phoenix @ Pennsylvania Quakers - Thursday December 20, 2007 7:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: Elon College Phoenix +3.5 (-108)
This is not going to be a popular pick, but there is no reason that Penn should be laying points to anyone right now. I follow Ivy League basketball very closely and UPenn is actually laying points to a team given tha they have won just 2 games and they come against the Citadel who are outisde the top 300 and Navy who are outside the top 250. Frankly, Elon is a sound team that I have ranked in the top 175 and I have already taken them once against Georgia on the road and I will take them again here. Their other win against Monmouth on the road is against a team that is outside the top 300 as well. Elon however is a .500 team that has yet to pick up a road win but keep in mind they have played Virginia Tech, Georgia and VCU. Elon has yet to pick up a road win here, but they are a 125 spots better than UPenn in the power rankings and I will take my chances with Elon to pick up their first win on the road as this is a solid public fade. With Wake covering as the huge public favorite yesterday, I find it tough to think that UPenn will cover as a huge public favorite today. Upenn has lost their last 4 covers and Elon should bounce-back well after their loss against Chattanooga.
Utah is a 8-4 squad and I have them as a top 35 power rankings and Navy as a top 60 power ranking team. What does this mean? I have the difference between these 2 teams as 6.9 or a touchdown. Don't forget that this game is in San Diego and Utah comes into this game having won 7 in a row before their last loss to BYU 10-17 on the road. This team played a similar ranked New Mexico team at home and won by 18 points and beat a similar ranked TCU team on the road by a touchdown who is nearly identical to Navy in the power rankings. This team started off the season 1-3 if you remember and some folks thought this team's dominating win over UCLA was a fluke, but it was not as this team turned out to be a 8 win ballclub. The total for this game has been set at 67.5 and has come down seadily to 65.5. The spread has come down from 9 as well steadily in favor of Navy as well. Something Utah does not get enough credit for is their solid defense which has allowed 30 points in their last 4 games. In fact, Utah has played in 5 of 6 unders and has covered 6 of their last 7 ballgames coming into this game. Navy is the 24th best offense in the nation with the #1 rushing attack as they are 8th in the nation in points scored averaging 39.9 points per ballgame. However, their defense is ranked 100 overall and they are 110th in points allowed as their passing defense is 107th and their rushing defense is 87th. The line has come down in large part due to the public favoring Navy a bit more. Utah has the 82nd best offense in the nation, but this team's strength is their defense. Furthermore, although Navy can put up more points, Utah's defense allowed this team to cover a ton of spreads this year simply because the margin of victory was greater. After all, this tem can score 28 points and win in a 28-10 type of fashion while Navy has to score 35 and their defense allows nearly that many points in a ballgame and therefore the midshipmen were prone to not covering as many ballgames. Utah is just 3rd in the nation in points allowed with less than 16 and they key factor is they are 38th in the nation in rushing yards allowed and top 20 in the nation in passing yards allowed. By the way, since the return of Utah' starting quarterback is when they went on the ridiculous ATS run and if Johnson was not injured in the early part of the season, this team could have possibly dominated even more this season. The Utes have given up just 5 touchdowns in their last 6 games just to show the prowess of this team's defense. Keep in mind that Coach Johnson is leaving Navy after 6 years of success as he heads to Georgia Tech and this is his Seniors' send off for him as well. Having said all this, I would not be surprised if the Utes end up winnin this ballgame by the spread given their defense and more importantly, I think this game is likely to go under.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Elon College Phoenix @ Pennsylvania Quakers - Thursday December 20, 2007 7:00 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) ATS: Elon College Phoenix +3.5 (-108)
This is not going to be a popular pick, but there is no reason that Penn should be laying points to anyone right now. I follow Ivy League basketball very closely and UPenn is actually laying points to a team given tha they have won just 2 games and they come against the Citadel who are outisde the top 300 and Navy who are outside the top 250. Frankly, Elon is a sound team that I have ranked in the top 175 and I have already taken them once against Georgia on the road and I will take them again here. Their other win against Monmouth on the road is against a team that is outside the top 300 as well. Elon however is a .500 team that has yet to pick up a road win but keep in mind they have played Virginia Tech, Georgia and VCU. Elon has yet to pick up a road win here, but they are a 125 spots better than UPenn in the power rankings and I will take my chances with Elon to pick up their first win on the road as this is a solid public fade. With Wake covering as the huge public favorite yesterday, I find it tough to think that UPenn will cover as a huge public favorite today. Upenn has lost their last 4 covers and Elon should bounce-back well after their loss against Chattanooga.
Utah is a 8-4 squad and I have them as a top 35 power rankings and Navy as a top 60 power ranking team. What does this mean? I have the difference between these 2 teams as 6.9 or a touchdown. Don't forget that this game is in San Diego and Utah comes into this game having won 7 in a row before their last loss to BYU 10-17 on the road. This team played a similar ranked New Mexico team at home and won by 18 points and beat a similar ranked TCU team on the road by a touchdown who is nearly identical to Navy in the power rankings. This team started off the season 1-3 if you remember and some folks thought this team's dominating win over UCLA was a fluke, but it was not as this team turned out to be a 8 win ballclub. The total for this game has been set at 67.5 and has come down seadily to 65.5. The spread has come down from 9 as well steadily in favor of Navy as well. Something Utah does not get enough credit for is their solid defense which has allowed 30 points in their last 4 games. In fact, Utah has played in 5 of 6 unders and has covered 6 of their last 7 ballgames coming into this game. Navy is the 24th best offense in the nation with the #1 rushing attack as they are 8th in the nation in points scored averaging 39.9 points per ballgame. However, their defense is ranked 100 overall and they are 110th in points allowed as their passing defense is 107th and their rushing defense is 87th. The line has come down in large part due to the public favoring Navy a bit more. Utah has the 82nd best offense in the nation, but this team's strength is their defense. Furthermore, although Navy can put up more points, Utah's defense allowed this team to cover a ton of spreads this year simply because the margin of victory was greater. After all, this tem can score 28 points and win in a 28-10 type of fashion while Navy has to score 35 and their defense allows nearly that many points in a ballgame and therefore the midshipmen were prone to not covering as many ballgames. Utah is just 3rd in the nation in points allowed with less than 16 and they key factor is they are 38th in the nation in rushing yards allowed and top 20 in the nation in passing yards allowed. By the way, since the return of Utah' starting quarterback is when they went on the ridiculous ATS run and if Johnson was not injured in the early part of the season, this team could have possibly dominated even more this season. The Utes have given up just 5 touchdowns in their last 6 games just to show the prowess of this team's defense. Keep in mind that Coach Johnson is leaving Navy after 6 years of success as he heads to Georgia Tech and this is his Seniors' send off for him as well. Having said all this, I would not be surprised if the Utes end up winnin this ballgame by the spread given their defense and more importantly, I think this game is likely to go under.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Mississippi Rebels @ Depaul Blue Demons - Thursday December 20, 2007 5:30 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Mississippi Rebels -7 (-108) (Play of the Day)
5 total plays today. Time for a solid day today. The bottom line here is that I have the Rebels as a top 30 team and note that this game is an early start time at 5:30pm eastern. The Rebels have played well thus far this season and sit at 8-0 and although it is tempting to take Depaul, this game is being played on neutral footing in Puerto Rico. Ole Miss boasts some very impressive wins including wins against top 40 New Mexico, top 50 South Alabama and a perennial solid Winthrop squad. Depaul is a top 140 team that has just 2 wins on the year and they come against the likes of Texas A&M Corpus Christie and Northwestern at home by a point who is a top 190 team. I have Ole Miss winning this game by double-digits as they are simply a dominant team thus far this season and still have yet to be defeated and this team needs a solid showing at this tournament in Puerto Rico to be ranked in the top 25 and they should do well here.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Elon College Phoenix @ Pennsylvania Quakers - Thursday December 20, 2007 7:00 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Elon College Phoenix +3.5 (-108) (Normal)
This is not going to be a popular pick, but there is no reason that Penn should be laying points to anyone right now. I follow Ivy League basketball very closely and UPenn is actually laying points to a team given tha they have won just 2 games and they come against the Citadel who are outisde the top 300 and Navy who are outside the top 250. Frankly, Elon is a sound team that I have ranked in the top 175 and I have already taken them once against Georgia on the road and I will take them again here. Their other win against Monmouth on the road is against a team that is outside the top 300 as well. Elon however is a .500 team that has yet to pick up a road win but keep in mind they have played Virginia Tech, Georgia and VCU. Elon has yet to pick up a road win here, but they are a 125 spots better than UPenn in the power rankings and I will take my chances with Elon to pick up their first win on the road as this is a solid public fade. With Wake covering as the huge public favorite yesterday, I find it tough to think that UPenn will cover as a huge public favorite today. Upenn has lost their last 4 covers and Elon should bounce-back well after their loss against Chattanooga.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Los Angeles Lakers @ Cleveland Cavaliers - Thursday December 20, 2007 8:00 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) TOTAL: Over 205.5 (-110) (Normal)
The Lakers are a very good team when it comes to hitting the road and playing basketball of late. This team lost 108-114 on the road to the Cavs last year in L.A. and they are looking for revenge today. The Lakers have won 6 of 7 and have hit over a 100 in all 7 of those ballgames as they are getting solid contribution from their bench. The Cavs' bench on the other hand are lousy. This team is simply dismal right now when it comes to scoring. However, the Cavs are a strong team when it comes to rebounding as they head back home. The Cavs come off that terrible game in New York and no doubt this team will be fired up as they return home to play the Lakers. The over is 11-1 in Cavaliers last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
and the over is 7-1 when the Cavs are home favorites. Thus, when Cavs are home favorites and small home favorites, the game typically goes over.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams - Thursday December 20, 2007 8:15 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: St. Louis Rams +8 (-110) (Normal)
Why not? The Steelers are just 2-4 straight up on the road and this team has not been impressive of late. Sure, they are the #1 defense in the league, but this team simpy does not play well on the road and there are kinks in the armor considering their defense is banged up for this game as they will be missing 2-3 key starters. The Rams are not going anywhere this season but they do have 3 wins of late as they were winless at one point. This team's Super Bowl and Playoff game is tonight so to speak. This team still has weapons including Stephen Jackson, Tory Holt and Marc Bulger who will look to come off a frustrating game against the Packers. The bottom line here is just on principle, the Rams are a solid play at home as the Steelers will likely win this game, but I have the Rams to win this game at 30% and therefore, the points are solid as the cover here is 62% or better according to my math model. This team scored 13 on the road at New England, 16 on the road against the Jets in overtime and has lost 5 of their last 6 covers. St. Louis has won 3 of the last 5 games straight up that Bulger has started. The Rams are 6-2 ATS as underdogs by this margin at home and the Steelers are 1-4 ATS on the road.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: New Jersey Nets @ Miami Heat - Thursday December 20, 2007 7:30 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: New Jersey Nets +2.5 (-110) (Normal)
This is an ugly pick. But, the Nets have revenge in this game seeing that they lost by a few points at home to the Heat earlier this year. The Heat will be missing even more depth given that 'Zo is likely out for the rest of the season and the Nets bigs' including Boone and Williams will likely wear down Shaq who is having career numbers below his typical averages. When the Heat beat the Nets earlier this year, Vince Carter did not play and he will undoubtedly suit up for this game. Thus, the Nets will have their trio of Jefferson, Kidd and Carter while the Heat simply have Wade and this team is simply struggling to win ballgames. With revenge in mind, the lack of depth without Zo' and with a healthy Nets team, this game should be ugly, but I feel that the Nets will carry the day in the end. The road team is 4-0 ATS in this series and the Heat are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 ballgames. The woes likely continue for the Heat after this game as they are also playing back to back ballgames while the Nets are a bit more rested.
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Mississippi Rebels @ Depaul Blue Demons - Thursday December 20, 2007 5:30 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Mississippi Rebels -7 (-108) (Play of the Day)
5 total plays today. Time for a solid day today. The bottom line here is that I have the Rebels as a top 30 team and note that this game is an early start time at 5:30pm eastern. The Rebels have played well thus far this season and sit at 8-0 and although it is tempting to take Depaul, this game is being played on neutral footing in Puerto Rico. Ole Miss boasts some very impressive wins including wins against top 40 New Mexico, top 50 South Alabama and a perennial solid Winthrop squad. Depaul is a top 140 team that has just 2 wins on the year and they come against the likes of Texas A&M Corpus Christie and Northwestern at home by a point who is a top 190 team. I have Ole Miss winning this game by double-digits as they are simply a dominant team thus far this season and still have yet to be defeated and this team needs a solid showing at this tournament in Puerto Rico to be ranked in the top 25 and they should do well here.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Elon College Phoenix @ Pennsylvania Quakers - Thursday December 20, 2007 7:00 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Elon College Phoenix +3.5 (-108) (Normal)
This is not going to be a popular pick, but there is no reason that Penn should be laying points to anyone right now. I follow Ivy League basketball very closely and UPenn is actually laying points to a team given tha they have won just 2 games and they come against the Citadel who are outisde the top 300 and Navy who are outside the top 250. Frankly, Elon is a sound team that I have ranked in the top 175 and I have already taken them once against Georgia on the road and I will take them again here. Their other win against Monmouth on the road is against a team that is outside the top 300 as well. Elon however is a .500 team that has yet to pick up a road win but keep in mind they have played Virginia Tech, Georgia and VCU. Elon has yet to pick up a road win here, but they are a 125 spots better than UPenn in the power rankings and I will take my chances with Elon to pick up their first win on the road as this is a solid public fade. With Wake covering as the huge public favorite yesterday, I find it tough to think that UPenn will cover as a huge public favorite today. Upenn has lost their last 4 covers and Elon should bounce-back well after their loss against Chattanooga.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Los Angeles Lakers @ Cleveland Cavaliers - Thursday December 20, 2007 8:00 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) TOTAL: Over 205.5 (-110) (Normal)
The Lakers are a very good team when it comes to hitting the road and playing basketball of late. This team lost 108-114 on the road to the Cavs last year in L.A. and they are looking for revenge today. The Lakers have won 6 of 7 and have hit over a 100 in all 7 of those ballgames as they are getting solid contribution from their bench. The Cavs' bench on the other hand are lousy. This team is simply dismal right now when it comes to scoring. However, the Cavs are a strong team when it comes to rebounding as they head back home. The Cavs come off that terrible game in New York and no doubt this team will be fired up as they return home to play the Lakers. The over is 11-1 in Cavaliers last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
and the over is 7-1 when the Cavs are home favorites. Thus, when Cavs are home favorites and small home favorites, the game typically goes over.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers @ St. Louis Rams - Thursday December 20, 2007 8:15 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: St. Louis Rams +8 (-110) (Normal)
Why not? The Steelers are just 2-4 straight up on the road and this team has not been impressive of late. Sure, they are the #1 defense in the league, but this team simpy does not play well on the road and there are kinks in the armor considering their defense is banged up for this game as they will be missing 2-3 key starters. The Rams are not going anywhere this season but they do have 3 wins of late as they were winless at one point. This team's Super Bowl and Playoff game is tonight so to speak. This team still has weapons including Stephen Jackson, Tory Holt and Marc Bulger who will look to come off a frustrating game against the Packers. The bottom line here is just on principle, the Rams are a solid play at home as the Steelers will likely win this game, but I have the Rams to win this game at 30% and therefore, the points are solid as the cover here is 62% or better according to my math model. This team scored 13 on the road at New England, 16 on the road against the Jets in overtime and has lost 5 of their last 6 covers. St. Louis has won 3 of the last 5 games straight up that Bulger has started. The Rams are 6-2 ATS as underdogs by this margin at home and the Steelers are 1-4 ATS on the road.
Handicapper: IndianCowboy
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: New Jersey Nets @ Miami Heat - Thursday December 20, 2007 7:30 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: New Jersey Nets +2.5 (-110) (Normal)
This is an ugly pick. But, the Nets have revenge in this game seeing that they lost by a few points at home to the Heat earlier this year. The Heat will be missing even more depth given that 'Zo is likely out for the rest of the season and the Nets bigs' including Boone and Williams will likely wear down Shaq who is having career numbers below his typical averages. When the Heat beat the Nets earlier this year, Vince Carter did not play and he will undoubtedly suit up for this game. Thus, the Nets will have their trio of Jefferson, Kidd and Carter while the Heat simply have Wade and this team is simply struggling to win ballgames. With revenge in mind, the lack of depth without Zo' and with a healthy Nets team, this game should be ugly, but I feel that the Nets will carry the day in the end. The road team is 4-0 ATS in this series and the Heat are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 ballgames. The woes likely continue for the Heat after this game as they are also playing back to back ballgames while the Nets are a bit more rested.
- Nov 28, 2007
- 8,587
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Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-Navy/Utah (12-2 CFB run!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on Utah at 9:00 ET. Navy's incredible rushing attack (351.5 YPG / 5.7 YPC / 51 TDs) is able to control the game clock and allowed Navy to punt just 21 times all season, the fewest on any school in the nation. For that reason, despite an undersized defense, the Middies have been formidable underdogs, going 23-12-1 ATS under Paul Johnson (2002-07). Navy was just 4-4 ATS as an underdog in Johnson's first season (2-10 SU), making them 19-8-1 as an underdog these last five years, all of which have ended in bowl appearances. However, Johnson has left to take the job at Ga Tech and while assistant head coach Ken Niumatalolo has taken over (insuring a smooth transition), I still believe this will be a tough spot for Navy and that Utah will be one tough opponent. Navy typically takes a 10-day break (for exams) after the Army game, meaning prep time has been limited. Meanwhile, Utah was said to have begun preparing for Navy, prior to the actual matchup being confirmed. Utah started 1-3 but then won SEVEN straight (6-1 ATS), before losing a very tough battle to BYU (17-10) in the season finale (BYU ended the year on a nine-game winning streak). Utah QB Brian Johnson will LOVE a Navy pass D that ranks dead-last in passing efficiency, allowing 69.1% completions with a ratio of 31-9. No one stops Navy's running game but Utah's D allowed just 15.6 ppg (3rd-best) and 131.1 YPG on the ground, holding as many as five different opponents to less than 100 yards rushing! Navy played four bowl teams TY, beating only Air Force. It lost 41-24 at Rutgers and at home to both Wake (44-24) and as a seven-point favorite to Ball St (34-31). Utah's in its FIFTH straight bowl, winning the last four years by the combined scores of 115-30 (4-0 ATS!). The Utes have won the last six bowl games in which they've played, covering the last five. The number keeps "coming down" and that makes little sense to me. Las Vegas Insider on Utah.
Good Luck...Larry
My Las Vegas Insider is on Utah at 9:00 ET. Navy's incredible rushing attack (351.5 YPG / 5.7 YPC / 51 TDs) is able to control the game clock and allowed Navy to punt just 21 times all season, the fewest on any school in the nation. For that reason, despite an undersized defense, the Middies have been formidable underdogs, going 23-12-1 ATS under Paul Johnson (2002-07). Navy was just 4-4 ATS as an underdog in Johnson's first season (2-10 SU), making them 19-8-1 as an underdog these last five years, all of which have ended in bowl appearances. However, Johnson has left to take the job at Ga Tech and while assistant head coach Ken Niumatalolo has taken over (insuring a smooth transition), I still believe this will be a tough spot for Navy and that Utah will be one tough opponent. Navy typically takes a 10-day break (for exams) after the Army game, meaning prep time has been limited. Meanwhile, Utah was said to have begun preparing for Navy, prior to the actual matchup being confirmed. Utah started 1-3 but then won SEVEN straight (6-1 ATS), before losing a very tough battle to BYU (17-10) in the season finale (BYU ended the year on a nine-game winning streak). Utah QB Brian Johnson will LOVE a Navy pass D that ranks dead-last in passing efficiency, allowing 69.1% completions with a ratio of 31-9. No one stops Navy's running game but Utah's D allowed just 15.6 ppg (3rd-best) and 131.1 YPG on the ground, holding as many as five different opponents to less than 100 yards rushing! Navy played four bowl teams TY, beating only Air Force. It lost 41-24 at Rutgers and at home to both Wake (44-24) and as a seven-point favorite to Ball St (34-31). Utah's in its FIFTH straight bowl, winning the last four years by the combined scores of 115-30 (4-0 ATS!). The Utes have won the last six bowl games in which they've played, covering the last five. The number keeps "coming down" and that makes little sense to me. Las Vegas Insider on Utah.
Good Luck...Larry
- Nov 28, 2007
- 8,587
- 18
- 0
- Nov 28, 2007
- 8,587
- 18
- 0
