WINNING POINTS
Thursday, March 20
Omaha, NE
Kansas over Portland State by 17
The Vikings won?t make many defensive stops, but Kansas gets the shortest possible rest
? Sunday, off three straight games ? while pitted against a decent offensive underdog
with more than its share of upperclassmen, that won both its conference regular season
and CT, and will be playing off eight days? rest. The teams have played at the same pace
this season: about 68.9 possessions per game apiece. PSU?s 5-6, 150 guard Dominguez
could be a defensive liability against the offensively efficient Jayhawks, but Kansas may
want to play too much passie the ballie and playee the benchie to show off in front of
their Midwestern neighbors in Omaha. KANSAS, 81-64.
Kent State over UNLV by 5
Automatically downgrade a small UNLV team that wasn?t going to receive an At-Large,
and received the fraudulent auto-bid off a Mountain West Tournament win on its own
home floor. The basketball Gods have a way of dealing with such teams, and it?s usually
not pretty. Kent State just made mincemeat of a similarly built Akron team that had
its own desperate dreams, and after two prior ?07 meetings knew Kent State a lot better
than UNLV will. The Runnin? Rebs have defended three-pointers well, but Kent is
not over-reliant on that shot and they are better at getting to the free-throw line. KENT
STATE, 69-64.
Thursday, March 20
At Denver, CO
Temple over Michigan State by 1
Tom Izzo?s reputation as a Mr. March precedes Michigan State, but this team isn?t exactly
laden with future NBA All-Stars. How many teams that score in the 30s at Iowa, and
then make up for it by pounding Penn State later on ? as if -- really make a deep run
in the Big Dance? Hmmm? Fran Dunphy has a message for Izzo: ?I?m as good a coach
as you are and happy to be here with better players than I had at Penn.? Michigan State
performed nicely at altitude when they beat BYU at Salt Lake City in non-conference
season. But they weren?t facing an opponent with 6-5 upperclassmen guards that can
each get 20 points (for MSU, Neitzel is 6-0, Walton 6-2). Temple is a little light on the
boards, but they have tightened up on defense in Dunphy?s second season and they turn
it over less than Michigan State. TEMPLE, 63-62.
Pittsburgh over Oral Roberts by 7
You get some nutty referees out there in Denver that don?t allow the Panthers of Pitt to
bang with immunity like they do in the Big East, and Oral Roberts could make it interesting.
ORU has three upperclassmen guards getting from 9.7 to 16.1 points per game,
and two big players 6-10 and 6-8 combining for 18.5 ppg and 12 reb in 44 combined
minutes. Not bad. Pittsburgh has a relatively short turnaround from late Saturday night
in New York ? and a championship celebrated by the many New Yorkers on the roster.
Oral Roberts will have better rest. The better of the two Sutton sons coaches ORU.
Despite their status as Big East champ, Pitt is a better match-up for ORU than either
Memphis or Washington State was from the last two seasons. PITTSBURGH, 71-64.
Notre Dame over George Mason by 4
Notre Dame?s inside tandem of 6-8 Harangody and 6-9 Kurz create issues for the linchpin
of George Mason?s offense, 6-7 senior Will Thomas, a Final Four holdover from two
seasons ago. But not necessarily on Notre Dame?s defensive end, where Thomas (16
ppg, 10 reb) draws double-teams and passes to open perimeter shooters. George
Mason?s guard group is deep and fearless, and if Notre Dame?s guards give them room,
they will be burned from deep. GMU?s guards will also patrol the perimeter like pit
bulls. Harangody and Kurz are 1-3 on Notre Dame in scoring, but the ball has to get
down to them first and that takes time, if it gets there before being picked off. NOTRE
DAME, 81-77.
Washington State over Winthrop by 17
Wazzou is all about working it around to get and knock down good looks from all over
? outside jumpers, scoop shots in the lane, back-door plays, you name it. They do not
turn the ball over much, and their defensive system has created frustration among plenty
of good offensive teams. Winthrop is not a good offensive team, and their good
defense hasn?t made its mark against the kind of precise, veteran, varied offense that
Washington State features. When you trail against Washington State, you will generally
not get enough possessions to make an effective comeback. At 59.5% from the freethrow
line and only .97 points per possession vs. Washington State?s 1.17, anyone
expecting an upset by Winthrop upset figures to be ?upset? when it?s over. WASHINGTON
STATE, 72-55.
USC over Kansas State by 9
K-State?s Michael Beasley could be Player of the Year. USC?s O.J. Mayo could be the
better player. Tournament play requires good guards, they say. K-State?s two top scorers
are forwards. While Beasley and Bill Walker await the ball, K-State?s guards will be seeing
at a lot of different defensive looks from the Trojans, who also block shots and do a good job of fighting through screens on defense. Coach Tim Floyd and his holdovers
like 6-9, 220 Gibson and Hackett in a much better position to put the hammer down
on an inexperienced, overrated Big 12 team with a rookie head coach Frank Martin.
USC isn?t deep, but the Trojans are more talented and they aren?t the team in this
match-up shooting only 32.8% from three-point range. They?ll make a ?volume scorer?
out of Beasley and dare somebody else to step up seriously. Mayo can get his own
shot and go for 30 against what passes for K-State defense, while getting better support.
Go O.J., go! USC, 78-69.
Wisconsin over CS Fullerton by 14
The Fullertons? first brush with March Madness fame in a long time comes against a
Wisconsin team that trailed its ?07 First Rounder vs. stranger Texas A&M CC by 18
points in the first half. Badgers? Brian Butch at center is a big body lacking a scorer?s
touch (12.3 ppg, only 4 FT attempts per game). Point guard Trevon Hughes hurt his
ankle last Saturday but played 27 minutes Sunday, as Wisconsin has the shortest-possible
rest while matched against a better-rested, up-tempo team (73.2 possessions per
game, 5.5 more than any Big Ten foe) stocked with upperclassmen transfers. Josh
Akognon was once Washington State?s leading scorer. Senior guard Frank Robinson
might be the Big West?s most underrated player. Fullerton?s defense blocks the fewest
shots in the Field of 65 and can be had inside, so the Badgers may be forced to go
repeatedly to Butch in a paint mismatch. WISCONSIN, 78-64.
Marquette over Kentucky by 9
Big East favorites have been haunted in the NCAA Tournament by SEC underdogs,
but usually when the SEC underdog was quicker, longer and experienced. Marquette is
quicker overall, and Kentucky by comparison is inexperienced, can?t knock down shots
consistently, and they are away from the SEC, where the red carpet was rolled out for
them in many instances. Marquette seems to be too far along in Tom Crean?s systems
and his good guards. James and McNeal are coming off a loss to Pitt that really ticked
them off. Marquette 6-8, 240 freshman forward Trevor Mbakwe has been playing 12
minutes a game since becoming eligible on February 15. He he is a new body in a place
where undersized Marquette really needed one. MARQUETTE, 71-62.
Stanford over Cornell by 19
The 7-foot Lopez twins patrol the paint for Stanford, allowing some deceptively long
wings and guards to do a very effective job on the perimeter. This is bad news for a
Cornell team that exploited wispy Ivy League interior defenses and put the hammer
down with 40.7% three-point shooting. Stanford?s defense allowed only 33.5% for
opponents on three-pointers, and the Cardinal 2-point percentage defense of only
41.6% is sixth-best in the nation behind Mississippi State, Kansas, Georgetown, Kansas
and Wisconsin. STANFORD, 67-48
UCLA over Mississippi Valley State by 31
?If Tijuana Tech is playing,? says Clay McKnight, the current video coordinator for
UCLA, ?we?re taping it.? So much for Mississippi Valley State trying to sneak under the
Bruins? radar. The Pac 10 is rated as the strongest conference, while Mississippi Valley?s
SWAC is rated as the weakest. UCLA is very hard to score against inside and out, they
have quality depth to be strong in the second half, and the minor injuries to Mbah a
Moute and Love will be played up to more than they are worth. MVS regained the services
of two better-than-average shooting seniors in January and might still have some
residual value there. But the opponent is going a long way. Planning on it, anyway.
UCLA, 85-54.
Texas A&M over BYU by 5
Opponents have connected on only 29.5% of 3-pointers against BYU this season. Is it
incredible perimeter defense, or is the Mountain West a bunch of slugs. Probably a little
of both. Meanwhile, the Aggies? defense gets turnovers at a rate lower than nearly all
other teams in the tournament. But their defensive 2-point field goal percentage is only
42%, bad news for Trent Plaisted of BYU, a 6-11, 245 overrated sort who gets 15.6 ppg
and 7.8 reb per game. Plaisted?s NBA stock might be prepared to plummet as he looks
at 7-0, 255 DeAndre Jordan and 6-9, 255 Joseph Jones of the Aggies. Competitive early
BYU outings vs. Louisville (outright win) and North Carolina came when those opponents
were not fully geared. TEXAS A&M, 72-67.
Baylor over Purdue by 5
Better offense for Baylor. Purdue is a young team that played tenacious defense at slow
paces in a down Big Ten. Baylor?s per game tempo of 71.8 is quicker than any Big Ten
team played this season and they do it while maintaining pretty good offensive efficiency:
1.18 points per possession vs. Purdue?s 1.11. Baylor also ranked in the top 12 of
fewest turnovers made per game, and a good care of rock status will help them starve
Purdue?s hunger for takeaways. Baylor?s above-average offensive shooting percentages ?
including free throws ? is complemented by the ability to absorb 21 fouls per game (vs.
Purdue?s 19.6). Purdue?s freshmen and sophomores have no margin for error against
Baylor?s bevy of juniors and seniors surrounding 6-4 freshman guard LaceDarius Dunn,
one of four double-digit scorers for the Bears. BAYLOR, 72-67.
Xavier over Georgia by 12
The miracle rise by the SEC doormat Georgia Bulldogs ? including two wins in one
day ? is a little too much, too soon to continue following a break in the action, and an
exit from the crummy SEC to move up in class into Top 10 territory. Georgia has the
shortest possible turnaround from Sunday to Thursday, and will spend half of it accepting
congratulations for upsetting the SEC Tournament. Good guards win tournament
games ? Gaines, Woodbury and Humphrey always had talent ? but this group has
probably reached its quota. The frontcourt wins no awards, and the opponent is a seasoned
group with six double-digit scorers (remember how they gave Ohio State fits last
year?), all seniors and juniors except for 6-8, 225 forward Josh Brown. XAVIER, 80-68.
Arizona over West Virginia by 3
If Arizona needs to play a zone to protect themselves from fouling and save up energy
for their offense ? no problem. West Virginia isn?t the greatest outside shooting team ?
just 35.3% from three-point range vs. Arizona?s 39%. The Wildcats will take their
chances, and seek to justify their At-Large selection after being shouted down by the
peanut gallery Sunday night into Monday morning. There are no physical match-ups
to fear on Huggins? Mountaineers, who benefited from a classic UConn laydown job
in the Big East Tournament before exposing their slick forward Joe Alexander on tape
for Arizona to plan against. It?s a class drop for a Pac 10 group that played one of the
nation?s strongest non-conference slates as well, with some mismatches for Bayless,
Budinger and McClellan to exploit. ARIZONA, 78-75.
Duke over Belmont by 19
If figures. Duke-haters can?t see an opponent with a certifiable big player for Duke to
fear until a possible Elite 8 match-up with Connecticut and even then, UConn?s
Thabeet is still on the raw side. The 6-8, 220 frame of Belmont?s so-so Matthew Dotson
just isn?t enough of a weapon. Guess ?they? needed to make up for the TV absence after
Duke?s first-round exit vs. VCU last year. This quicker version of the Blue Devils meets
an opponent as three-ball reliant as they are, but the Belmont kids aren?t jacking ?em up
with All-American recruits who are allowed to commit fouls without being whistled for
them. Belmont?s Atlantic Sun cousins (Gardner-Webb, Campbell) made a lot of noise
early in the season by beating Kentucky and USC. Go for three! But don?t bet on it.
DUKE, 82-63.
