Teddy Covers
Big Dance Trifecta
Xavier
USC
Wash St.
Xavier is a legitimate Top 10 team, vastly undervalued by both the betting marketplace and the general public. They?ve proven their mettle against major conference schools, beating Indiana by 15, Kansas State by 26 and Virginia by 38. While the Atlantic-10 is not comparable to a major conference at the bottom, there were seven 20 win teams at the top ? the Musketeers most assuredly have been tested repeatedly throughout the course of their season, and they passed the vast majority of those tests.
Yet, even with a #3 seed and a current ranking of 12th in the nation, Xavier continues to search for respect. Senior guard Stanley Burrell, the A-10 defensive player of the year, prior to Xavier?s first round game in the A-10 tournament last week: ?We went 14-2, top 10 in the nation? I'm sick of people overlooking us. I'm sick of us being labeled as a mid-major; we don't get no respect, man.? This is an outstanding team with a chip on their shoulder, exactly the type of squad worthy of support in Round 1 against a major conference foe.
Georgia got incredibly hot in the SEC tournament, winning four games in four days against a relatively weak field. Do not expect that momentum to carry over to Thursday?s early start game. The Bulldogs are a #14 seed for a reason, finishing 4-12 in that watered down SEC during the regular season, winning just twice on the road (at Hawaii and at Auburn, a pair of sub .500 clubs). The Musketeers are the better offensive team, the better defensive team, the better free throw shooting team, the better rebounding team, the deeper team ? you name the stat, and Xavier is the better team. Expect a blowout.
Of all the teams seeded fourth or higher, USC has the most upside. In fact, a quick check of the future board at any Las Vegas sportsbook will show you the respect afforded to the Trojans, as their price to win it all is far lower than ANY comparably seeded squad. If you?re looking for a Final Four sleeper, look no further than Tim Floyd?s Trojans.
USC has consistently stepped up their level of play for ?big games?. They beat UCLA at Pauley Pavilion earlier in the year, and took the Bruins right to the wire in the PAC-10 tournament. They took Kansas right to the wire as well, in a four point loss. They took Memphis to overtime, holding the Tigers to their second lowest point total of the season despite the extra five minutes of play. This is, quite simply, an outstanding defensive team, and the Taj Gibson/Michael Beasley matchup is one that USC should win. Tim Floyd?s defensive coaching prowess cannot be underestimated.
Other than Beasley and Bill Walker, Kansas State really doesn?t have much else. The Wildcats went 3-7 on the highway this year, and got bounced out of the first round of the Big 12 tournament in Kansas City. Narrow that down to games against NCAA tournament teams and the Wildcats were a woeful 1-6 SU and ATS away from home. They have weaker offensive, defensive and rebounding numbers compared to USC, and rookie head coach Frank Martin is unlikely to devise a gameplan to negate those Trojan edges. There truly is a class difference between these two teams that is not accurately reflected in this pointspread.
In each of the last two years, Washington State has absolutely dominated their non-conference opposition. The Cougars reeled off 14 consecutive victories to start off this season, 9-4 ATS during that run. That included SU and ATS road victories at NCAA tournament bound teams Gonzaga, Baylor and Boise State, not to mention a 15 point win at USC on the opening weekend of PAC-10 play. Last year, the Cougars went 11-1 in early season non-conference action, and started the season by covering ten of their first fifteen lined games.
Tony Bennett?s team runs an extraordinarily difficult offensive system to defend, particularly for opponents who haven?t seen it before. That?s why their SU and ATS results tend to deteriorate down the stretch of the PAC-10 campaign ? the other PAC-10 schools have seen it before, and they can prepare for it much better the second time around. A team like Winthrop has no such advantage.
Washington State beat Oral Roberts by 16 in their opening round game last year (laying a similar price to what they are laying this year) before losing in OT to hot shooting Vanderbilt in Round 2. There?s little reason to think that the Cougars won?t have similar success early on in this year?s Big Dance. The Big South did not have a good year as a conference, and Winthrop lost their top three players and their head coach from the team that upset Notre Dame in the first round in 2007. We saw the Eagles lose by 17 at NCAA tournament bound West Virginia, lose by 13 in a non-competitive effort at home on Bracket Buster weekend to NCAA tournament bound Davidson and lose by 8 to Baylor in the Paradise Jam tournament back in November. Mount St Mary?s, the #16 seed in the play-in game, beat Winthrop! Expect Washington State to have little trouble pulling away from this squad, particularly considering the Eagles inability to hit free throws (under 60% for the season).