LT Profits
San Diego Padres @ Houston Astros over 8.0 (-120)
Tue Apr 22 '08 8:05p
Now Jake Peavy is obviously one of the best pitchers in baseball, but we feel that the San Diego Padres are capable of scoring at least six runs in this game vs. the Houston Astros, which would make the Over rather easily attainable at this low number.
First of all, the Over is 26-8-2 in the Padres? last 36 road games stretching back to last season, and San Diego road contests are averaging 9.10 runs this season, more than a full run higher than this total. Secondly, they are facing Brandon Backe, who was touched up for six runs and 10 hits in only three innings in his last start. Finally, the Houston bullpen is currently ranked 22nd out of 30 Major League teams with a 4.55 ERA.
Now granted, Peavy doesn?t figure to allow much, but if the Padres grab as big a lead as we expect here, we doubt Peavy will be allowed to go more than seven innings. That means the San Diego bullpen will see some action, and that unit has actually been worse than Houston?s so far, ranking 23rd with a 4.73 group ERA.
It may be tight for a while, but we do see at least nine runs being scored by the end of this game.
Padres/ Astros Over 8 (-120)
Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs u192.0 (-110)
Tue Apr 22 '08 9:30p
What may have been forgotten in the Game 1 ?Instant Classic? double overtime 117-115 San Antonio Spurs win over the Phoenix Suns in this series is the fact that the game was well Under, at 186 points, at the end of regulation.
Unders are nothing new for the Spurs, as their home games have still averaged just a combined 186.5 points this year even including Game 1. The team knows better than any other that defense wins championships, as they won the NBA title last season with their playoff games averaging only 187.4 points. In fact, the Spurs? last 72 home playoff games overall have averaged just 183.3 points, with the Under going 40-32, 55.6 percent in those games.
Now the Suns are usually allergic to defense, although they have gotten somewhat better lately after Shaq arrived. Still, the Spurs are probably the only team that has been able to slow them down consistently, as the Under is 9-4 in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these clubs with the run-and-gun Suns averaging just 95.5 points in those encounters.
We look for a similar pace as in Game 1 here, so hopefully, there won?t be any more overtimes blowing up a safe Under.
Suns/Spurs Under 192
Mike Rose
Getting the starting nod for Joe Girardi?s club will be Chien-Ming Wang. The righty?s 3-0 with a 3.81 ERA, but he was roughed up badly in his last start at home against Boston. He was unable to make it past the fifth inning at Yankee Stadium for the first time in his big league career, and overall, it was just the fifth time in 84 career starts that he wasn?t able to go at least five. He allowed nine hits and eight earned runs in just four innings of work earning the no decision. He is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in three career starts at U.S. Cellular Field.
New York Yankees (-135)
Contreras picked up his first victory in 2008 with a dominating performance that had Chicago management grinning from ear-to-ear his last time out. His offense put three on the board in the first inning after Jim Thome blasted his 510th career HR, and he made the lead stand over seven strong innings. He only threw 91 pitches allowing just four hits and one earned run while striking out six, but most importantly, he didn?t issue a single walk. Contreras, who pitched for the Yankees during the 2003 and 2004 seasons, has a 2-4 record against his original big-league employer with a 3.96 ERA and 1.241 WHIP.
The Yankees are yet to cash as a ?125 to ?150 road favorites this season going 0-2, and their 1-5 their L/6 as a road favorite of ?110 to ?150. However, they?re 16-5 in Wang?s L/21 road starts and 5-1 the L/6 meetings with the White Sox. Chicago is surprisingly 0-3 with a days rest this season, 0-4 in Contreras? L/4 starts against the Yankees, and a woeful 1-7 the L/8 times Contreras was installed a home underdog. This has also been a lower scoring series as the under has cashed in 15 of the L/22 meetings, and it?s 5-1-2 the L/8 times they?ve squared off at ?The Cell?.
San Diego Padres @ Houston Astros over 8.0 (-120)
Tue Apr 22 '08 8:05p
Now Jake Peavy is obviously one of the best pitchers in baseball, but we feel that the San Diego Padres are capable of scoring at least six runs in this game vs. the Houston Astros, which would make the Over rather easily attainable at this low number.
First of all, the Over is 26-8-2 in the Padres? last 36 road games stretching back to last season, and San Diego road contests are averaging 9.10 runs this season, more than a full run higher than this total. Secondly, they are facing Brandon Backe, who was touched up for six runs and 10 hits in only three innings in his last start. Finally, the Houston bullpen is currently ranked 22nd out of 30 Major League teams with a 4.55 ERA.
Now granted, Peavy doesn?t figure to allow much, but if the Padres grab as big a lead as we expect here, we doubt Peavy will be allowed to go more than seven innings. That means the San Diego bullpen will see some action, and that unit has actually been worse than Houston?s so far, ranking 23rd with a 4.73 group ERA.
It may be tight for a while, but we do see at least nine runs being scored by the end of this game.
Padres/ Astros Over 8 (-120)
Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs u192.0 (-110)
Tue Apr 22 '08 9:30p
What may have been forgotten in the Game 1 ?Instant Classic? double overtime 117-115 San Antonio Spurs win over the Phoenix Suns in this series is the fact that the game was well Under, at 186 points, at the end of regulation.
Unders are nothing new for the Spurs, as their home games have still averaged just a combined 186.5 points this year even including Game 1. The team knows better than any other that defense wins championships, as they won the NBA title last season with their playoff games averaging only 187.4 points. In fact, the Spurs? last 72 home playoff games overall have averaged just 183.3 points, with the Under going 40-32, 55.6 percent in those games.
Now the Suns are usually allergic to defense, although they have gotten somewhat better lately after Shaq arrived. Still, the Spurs are probably the only team that has been able to slow them down consistently, as the Under is 9-4 in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these clubs with the run-and-gun Suns averaging just 95.5 points in those encounters.
We look for a similar pace as in Game 1 here, so hopefully, there won?t be any more overtimes blowing up a safe Under.
Suns/Spurs Under 192
Mike Rose
Getting the starting nod for Joe Girardi?s club will be Chien-Ming Wang. The righty?s 3-0 with a 3.81 ERA, but he was roughed up badly in his last start at home against Boston. He was unable to make it past the fifth inning at Yankee Stadium for the first time in his big league career, and overall, it was just the fifth time in 84 career starts that he wasn?t able to go at least five. He allowed nine hits and eight earned runs in just four innings of work earning the no decision. He is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in three career starts at U.S. Cellular Field.
New York Yankees (-135)
Contreras picked up his first victory in 2008 with a dominating performance that had Chicago management grinning from ear-to-ear his last time out. His offense put three on the board in the first inning after Jim Thome blasted his 510th career HR, and he made the lead stand over seven strong innings. He only threw 91 pitches allowing just four hits and one earned run while striking out six, but most importantly, he didn?t issue a single walk. Contreras, who pitched for the Yankees during the 2003 and 2004 seasons, has a 2-4 record against his original big-league employer with a 3.96 ERA and 1.241 WHIP.
The Yankees are yet to cash as a ?125 to ?150 road favorites this season going 0-2, and their 1-5 their L/6 as a road favorite of ?110 to ?150. However, they?re 16-5 in Wang?s L/21 road starts and 5-1 the L/6 meetings with the White Sox. Chicago is surprisingly 0-3 with a days rest this season, 0-4 in Contreras? L/4 starts against the Yankees, and a woeful 1-7 the L/8 times Contreras was installed a home underdog. This has also been a lower scoring series as the under has cashed in 15 of the L/22 meetings, and it?s 5-1-2 the L/8 times they?ve squared off at ?The Cell?.
