SERVICE PLAYS WEDNESDAY 12/19
- Thread starter GIANTS007
- Start date
TONY WESTON
Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics
This will be one of the better games you?ve seen in the NBA so far this year as Boston comes in having won nine consecutive games SU and the Pistons come in 8-2 SU their L10.
Detroit is 8-1-1 ATS in that 10-game stretch, while Boston is 6-3-1 ATS its L10.
And even though the Celtics have been on a tear SU, they?ve only gone 3-2 ATS at home their L5 games. And of those last five teams that played in Boston, only Toronto has a winning record.
With one of the weakest schedules so far this season, the Celtics will get a test from a Detroit team that can score points at will when necessary and is one of the best defensive teams in the Association.
Don?t look for Boston to pass this test.
Go with the Pistons on the road.
2♦ PISTONS (1♦ to 5♦ Scale)
Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics
This will be one of the better games you?ve seen in the NBA so far this year as Boston comes in having won nine consecutive games SU and the Pistons come in 8-2 SU their L10.
Detroit is 8-1-1 ATS in that 10-game stretch, while Boston is 6-3-1 ATS its L10.
And even though the Celtics have been on a tear SU, they?ve only gone 3-2 ATS at home their L5 games. And of those last five teams that played in Boston, only Toronto has a winning record.
With one of the weakest schedules so far this season, the Celtics will get a test from a Detroit team that can score points at will when necessary and is one of the best defensive teams in the Association.
Don?t look for Boston to pass this test.
Go with the Pistons on the road.
2♦ PISTONS (1♦ to 5♦ Scale)
just bought
Lenny Del Genio's Wednesday NBA Trifecta (2-0 Tuesday)
Play on Charlotte at 7:05 ET. Right now, the Bobcats are the midst of a horrible 0-9 ATS stretch, but Utah hasn't fared much better (2-7 ATS) by losing eight of its last nine SU, including a five-point loss in Atlanta on Monday night. The only Jazz win during that stretch came against lowly Seattle. Jerry Sloan's team has many problems right now, including an inability to finish, free throws, turnovers, and defense. In other words - basic fundamentals. It's safe to say that we've never seen one of Sloan's teams so bad on the defensive end as this one, who gives up over 105 PPG on the road this season. Offensively, they can't figure out the zone defense. Having enjoyed four days off, Charlotte has had plenty of time to read about these same Utah misfortunes and will be more than up to the task considering this is a rare ESPN appearance for the club. Meanwhile, this is the fourth game in six nights for the Jazz. The Bobcats easily handled what was a better Utah team, here in Charlotte, last season winning outright, 101-89 as 6.5-point dogs. We like them to do the same this time around. Take Charlotte.
Play on Minnesota at 8:05 ET. Golden State has been one of the most consistently inconsistent teams in the league all season long. Minnesota has beaten better teams as a home dog this season, for instance, 11 days ago they beat Phoenix, 100-93 as ten-point pups. They haven't won since, but it is important to note that the T'Wolves have been competitive in defeat, losing by four or less in three of their last four games. The Warriors have a very poor history here at the Target Center losing 17 of 21 since 1996, including four straight by an average of nearly 15 PPG. Supporting our play is a system that has gone 44-19 ATS over the last five seasons. It says to play on any home team coming off three or more straight up losses, if their winning percentage is .250 or worse and are matched up with a .500 or better foe. We're going with history on this one, folks. Take Minnesota.
Play on Portland at 10:05 ET. True or False - The Portland Trail Blazers are the NBA's hottest team? The answer would be true, as this team enters tonight's game on a eight-game SU and ATS winning streak. Incredibly, seven of those wins have come in the underdog role. Tonight, they are slightly favored over a Raptors team that comes in without rest having played the Clippers last night. Portland is 11-3 against the spread this season if coming off a SU win and this year's bunch will be eager to erase an ugly series history that has seen them fail to cash in nine of ten here at home vs. Toronto. Obviously, this has all been a surprise coming without #1 overall draft choice Greg Oden, but even more impressive is that they've been winning without F LaMarcus Aldridge (18.7, 7.7). He'll return to action Wednesday night, giving PG Brandon Roy a serious inside weapon, if he even needs it. Roy has been playing out of his mind recently, averaging 23.2 PPG and 6.6 APG over his last five. With TJ Ford still out of the Toronto lineup, we love Portland to continue its hot shooting against this road weary opponent. Take Portland.
Good luck, Lenny
Lenny Del Genio's 20* CBB Non-Conference Rout (12-2 run)
Play on Memphis at 7:00 ET. How ugly could this one get? Consider this: Last year, the Tigers beat the Bearcats by 33 and this year the Tigers are better and the Bearcats worse. You might say that Cincinnati gets somewhat of an extra boost this time around by playing at home, but you'd be wrong as Memphis has covered five straight in the building. The Bearcats are coming off three straight losses on the road and a national TV audience won't serve as a big enough boost considering the team is coming off an emotional loss to Xavier last Wednesday and those kind of setbacks can really stay with a team. That was Cincy's lone cover of the year and two of its three wins have come against non-lined Coastal Carolina and USC Upstate. Meanwhile, unbeaten Memphis is coming off four straight non-covers (two ATS losses, two pushes) and will be eager to look good before their huge showdown with Georgetown this weekend. The Tigers have been absolute animals on the defensive end this month, holding their previous two opponents, USC and MTSU, to 29% or less shooting from the field. We find John Calipari's team to be a perfect 10-0 against the spread after holding their previous opponent to a FG% of 28% or less. Memphis is our 20* Non-Conference Rout.
Good luck, Lenny
Lenny Del Genio's 15* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week (2-0 Tuesday)
Play Bulls/Wizards Over at 7:05 ET. Lenny spent years working on an NBA "totals system" and began using it last January on the net, with great success. It's based on numerous factors, some of them listed here. Anticipated pace and style of both teams' play. Days of rest for teams or lack of it. Number of points scored by starters as compared to subs in recent outings (plus season-long averages). It also factors in point and rebounding differentials of the two teams. With all these factors (and many more), it's not possible to provide Lenny's "typical analysis" with his NBA totals selections. However, after last year's success, he anticipates another banner year. Play are rated 10* (Game of Day), 15* (Game of Week), 20* (Game of Month) and some rare 25* plays. Good luck. Bulls/Wizards Over is our 15* Eastern Conference Total of the Week!
Good luck, Lenny
Lenny Del Genio's Wednesday NBA Trifecta (2-0 Tuesday)
Play on Charlotte at 7:05 ET. Right now, the Bobcats are the midst of a horrible 0-9 ATS stretch, but Utah hasn't fared much better (2-7 ATS) by losing eight of its last nine SU, including a five-point loss in Atlanta on Monday night. The only Jazz win during that stretch came against lowly Seattle. Jerry Sloan's team has many problems right now, including an inability to finish, free throws, turnovers, and defense. In other words - basic fundamentals. It's safe to say that we've never seen one of Sloan's teams so bad on the defensive end as this one, who gives up over 105 PPG on the road this season. Offensively, they can't figure out the zone defense. Having enjoyed four days off, Charlotte has had plenty of time to read about these same Utah misfortunes and will be more than up to the task considering this is a rare ESPN appearance for the club. Meanwhile, this is the fourth game in six nights for the Jazz. The Bobcats easily handled what was a better Utah team, here in Charlotte, last season winning outright, 101-89 as 6.5-point dogs. We like them to do the same this time around. Take Charlotte.
Play on Minnesota at 8:05 ET. Golden State has been one of the most consistently inconsistent teams in the league all season long. Minnesota has beaten better teams as a home dog this season, for instance, 11 days ago they beat Phoenix, 100-93 as ten-point pups. They haven't won since, but it is important to note that the T'Wolves have been competitive in defeat, losing by four or less in three of their last four games. The Warriors have a very poor history here at the Target Center losing 17 of 21 since 1996, including four straight by an average of nearly 15 PPG. Supporting our play is a system that has gone 44-19 ATS over the last five seasons. It says to play on any home team coming off three or more straight up losses, if their winning percentage is .250 or worse and are matched up with a .500 or better foe. We're going with history on this one, folks. Take Minnesota.
Play on Portland at 10:05 ET. True or False - The Portland Trail Blazers are the NBA's hottest team? The answer would be true, as this team enters tonight's game on a eight-game SU and ATS winning streak. Incredibly, seven of those wins have come in the underdog role. Tonight, they are slightly favored over a Raptors team that comes in without rest having played the Clippers last night. Portland is 11-3 against the spread this season if coming off a SU win and this year's bunch will be eager to erase an ugly series history that has seen them fail to cash in nine of ten here at home vs. Toronto. Obviously, this has all been a surprise coming without #1 overall draft choice Greg Oden, but even more impressive is that they've been winning without F LaMarcus Aldridge (18.7, 7.7). He'll return to action Wednesday night, giving PG Brandon Roy a serious inside weapon, if he even needs it. Roy has been playing out of his mind recently, averaging 23.2 PPG and 6.6 APG over his last five. With TJ Ford still out of the Toronto lineup, we love Portland to continue its hot shooting against this road weary opponent. Take Portland.
Good luck, Lenny
Lenny Del Genio's 20* CBB Non-Conference Rout (12-2 run)
Play on Memphis at 7:00 ET. How ugly could this one get? Consider this: Last year, the Tigers beat the Bearcats by 33 and this year the Tigers are better and the Bearcats worse. You might say that Cincinnati gets somewhat of an extra boost this time around by playing at home, but you'd be wrong as Memphis has covered five straight in the building. The Bearcats are coming off three straight losses on the road and a national TV audience won't serve as a big enough boost considering the team is coming off an emotional loss to Xavier last Wednesday and those kind of setbacks can really stay with a team. That was Cincy's lone cover of the year and two of its three wins have come against non-lined Coastal Carolina and USC Upstate. Meanwhile, unbeaten Memphis is coming off four straight non-covers (two ATS losses, two pushes) and will be eager to look good before their huge showdown with Georgetown this weekend. The Tigers have been absolute animals on the defensive end this month, holding their previous two opponents, USC and MTSU, to 29% or less shooting from the field. We find John Calipari's team to be a perfect 10-0 against the spread after holding their previous opponent to a FG% of 28% or less. Memphis is our 20* Non-Conference Rout.
Good luck, Lenny
Lenny Del Genio's 15* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week (2-0 Tuesday)
Play Bulls/Wizards Over at 7:05 ET. Lenny spent years working on an NBA "totals system" and began using it last January on the net, with great success. It's based on numerous factors, some of them listed here. Anticipated pace and style of both teams' play. Days of rest for teams or lack of it. Number of points scored by starters as compared to subs in recent outings (plus season-long averages). It also factors in point and rebounding differentials of the two teams. With all these factors (and many more), it's not possible to provide Lenny's "typical analysis" with his NBA totals selections. However, after last year's success, he anticipates another banner year. Play are rated 10* (Game of Day), 15* (Game of Week), 20* (Game of Month) and some rare 25* plays. Good luck. Bulls/Wizards Over is our 15* Eastern Conference Total of the Week!
Good luck, Lenny
Winners Edge-12/19/07
CBB:
Memphis Tigers -14 , 4 units ( CBB game of week )
UNLV +3.5 , 2 units
LSU -2 , 2 units
NBA:
Houston/Orlando over 193 , 2 units
CBB:
Memphis Tigers -14 , 4 units ( CBB game of week )
UNLV +3.5 , 2 units
LSU -2 , 2 units
NBA:
Houston/Orlando over 193 , 2 units
Marco D'Angelo | CBB Sides Double-Dime Bet
539 Baylor 3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 540 S.Carolina
Analysis: Tonight Baylor travels to S. Carolina and are an early 3 point Dog. In my opinion they should be the favorite here as Vegas has under valued this team. Baylor has been beating up on nobody's so Vegas really doesn't know how good they are. Tonight they find out as Baylor goes into S. Carolina comes out with an outright win. Take BAYLOR as MARCO'S COLLEGE SHOCKER GAME OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
539 Baylor 3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 540 S.Carolina
Analysis: Tonight Baylor travels to S. Carolina and are an early 3 point Dog. In my opinion they should be the favorite here as Vegas has under valued this team. Baylor has been beating up on nobody's so Vegas really doesn't know how good they are. Tonight they find out as Baylor goes into S. Carolina comes out with an outright win. Take BAYLOR as MARCO'S COLLEGE SHOCKER GAME OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.
THE PLAYS MISS-REB POSTED , EX.- POSTS # 15,22,23 ARE COMP PLAYS!!!
When you post a play you should let everyone know it is a free play.
Keep up the good work!
When you post a play you should let everyone know it is a free play.
Keep up the good work!
2-0 yesterday
Michael Cannon
Wednesday's Plays...
15 Dime ?
BOBCATS
Take the points with Charlotte tonight when they host Utah.
There?s no question the Bobcats are slumping right now, but this is a great spot to back them as the home dog.
First of all, they are playing on national TV, which doesn?t happen very often so the motivation will be there.
Secondly, Michael Jordan came down from the front office to practice with his team yesterday. His idea was to get his team to relax and concentrate on eliminating the mental mistakes that have plagued them during their recent slide.
If anyone can get a team to tighten things up and get motivated, it?s MJ.
This is also a bad spot to be laying points with Utah. The Jazz are playing their fourth game in six days, so the fatigue factor will come into play.
Charlotte has had four days to game-plan for this matchup, so they should be ready.
Take the points as the Bobcats stay within the number at home.
10 Dime ?
TIMBERWOLVES
Let?s back another slumping team getting points at home in the Timberwolves.
Golden State is capable of beating any team. All you have to do is look back at last year?s first road upset of the Mavericks.
But the Warriors are also capable of losing to any club.
That?s because their defense is questionable at best, which will allow Minnesota to stay close throughout.
Golden State is playing its third game in four nights, and the last time the Timberwolves faced a team playing with fatigue was 12 days ago when they upset the Suns as a 10-point home dog.
Take the points as Minnesota keeps it within the number at home.
5 Dime ?
MEMPHIS (College Hoops)
Lay the big number with Memphis tonight on the road over Cincinnati.
This is a potential let down spot for the Bearcats, as they are coming off an emotional game against in-state rival Xavier.
I cashed in with them that night as an 18-point dog, but I don?t see them coming back again here with that type of effort against the No. 2-ranked Tigers.
Memphis is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings dating back to the 2001-02 season.
The Bearcats are in a 2-10-2 ATS slump overall and they have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. On top of that, Cincinnati is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games against Conference USA.
Lay the big number as Memphis scores a blowout road win and cover.
Michael Cannon
Wednesday's Plays...
15 Dime ?
BOBCATS
Take the points with Charlotte tonight when they host Utah.
There?s no question the Bobcats are slumping right now, but this is a great spot to back them as the home dog.
First of all, they are playing on national TV, which doesn?t happen very often so the motivation will be there.
Secondly, Michael Jordan came down from the front office to practice with his team yesterday. His idea was to get his team to relax and concentrate on eliminating the mental mistakes that have plagued them during their recent slide.
If anyone can get a team to tighten things up and get motivated, it?s MJ.
This is also a bad spot to be laying points with Utah. The Jazz are playing their fourth game in six days, so the fatigue factor will come into play.
Charlotte has had four days to game-plan for this matchup, so they should be ready.
Take the points as the Bobcats stay within the number at home.
10 Dime ?
TIMBERWOLVES
Let?s back another slumping team getting points at home in the Timberwolves.
Golden State is capable of beating any team. All you have to do is look back at last year?s first road upset of the Mavericks.
But the Warriors are also capable of losing to any club.
That?s because their defense is questionable at best, which will allow Minnesota to stay close throughout.
Golden State is playing its third game in four nights, and the last time the Timberwolves faced a team playing with fatigue was 12 days ago when they upset the Suns as a 10-point home dog.
Take the points as Minnesota keeps it within the number at home.
5 Dime ?
MEMPHIS (College Hoops)
Lay the big number with Memphis tonight on the road over Cincinnati.
This is a potential let down spot for the Bearcats, as they are coming off an emotional game against in-state rival Xavier.
I cashed in with them that night as an 18-point dog, but I don?t see them coming back again here with that type of effort against the No. 2-ranked Tigers.
Memphis is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings dating back to the 2001-02 season.
The Bearcats are in a 2-10-2 ATS slump overall and they have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. On top of that, Cincinnati is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games against Conference USA.
Lay the big number as Memphis scores a blowout road win and cover.
FYI- I pay and play Iceman and Burns NHL (already posted by someone) and they are on opposite sides tonight - this rarely happens so I'm passing on the game. GL.
Teddy June
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Teddy June?s College Basketball Game of the Day (4-1 CBB Run)
My 10* College Basketball Game of the Day is the Baylor Bears plus the points over the South Carolina Gamecocks. Each of these teams I was fairly high on coming into the year. I cashed a ticket on South Carolina in their last game as they escaped with a win in Philadelphia over Providence and back in mid November I cashed a ticket on Baylor in St. Thomas over Notre Dame. Baylor has really started the year strong at 7-1 SU and 3-1 ATS. Their lone SU/ATS loss was back on Nov. 30 in a game they were up by 12 at the half against the 6th ranked Washington State Cougars and were outscored by 15 in the 2nd half on route to a 3 point home loss. Still a very good indicator overall of how good this team is as Washington State is certainly one of the better teams in the country. Baylor is led by a fantastic 5 guard rotation, senior Aaron Bruce (11.1ppg, 42.3% 3PT FG), junior Curtis Jerrells (13.1ppg, 43.2% 3PT FG), junior Henry Dugat (9.1ppg), sophomore Tweety Carter (9.5ppg, 47.4 FG%, 45.2 3PT FG), and lastly stud freshman LaceDarius Dunn (12.4ppg, 48.3% FG, 47.2 3PT FG). They are anchored in the front court by junior forward Kevin Rogers (12.1ppg, 7.1rpg). Offensively with all of these stud guards Baylor has been extremely efficient averaging just below 80 points per game, they are shooting 47.8% from the field and 42.2% from 3 point range. Defensively strong as well holding opponents to 62.5ppg, 39% field goal shooting and 32.8% from the 3 point line. The Bears are a very deep team as well as they run a 9 man rotation which ranges in floor time from 17.5 per game to 29.5 minutes per game. They stay fresh and have some very talented guards that come off the bench that don?t miss a beat when starters are resting. South Carolina enters this game 5-4 SU on the year and tonight will be playing their first game after a 12 day layoff. They enter off a win against Providence in a game that was dominated by the Gamecock guards, Downey, Fredrick and Raley-Ross carried them to a nice win on a neutral court. The matchup problems for the Friars was clearly evident from the start as they did not have the guards to matchup with the Gamecocks, tonight South Carolina will face the best set of guards they?ve seen since the 10 point USC loss. I expect Jerrells and crew to get the necessary pressure on the Gamecocks and force them into a lot of mistakes something they do when pressured. They have too much depth and too much experience for South Carolina tonight, outside of the big 3 for South Carolina they don?t get much support for scoring and they are very short on the bench. While this technically is Baylor?s first true road test, they have shown they can travel after picking up big wins against Wichita State, Notre Dame and Winthrop on neutral floors in mid November. Tonight?s game in my opinion won?t be a true example of a road environment with kids on break for the holidays and a under the radar team like Baylor visiting. Also it is important to note that South Carolina has same season revenge with in state rival Clemson on deck at home just 3 days from today. I currently have this line at +3.5/+3 and expect it will waiver around these numbers for most of the day. I have this rated at 10* down to 1. My 10* College Basketball Game of the Day is the Baylor Bears plus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let?s make some money.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Teddy June?s College Basketball Game of the Day (4-1 CBB Run)
My 10* College Basketball Game of the Day is the Baylor Bears plus the points over the South Carolina Gamecocks. Each of these teams I was fairly high on coming into the year. I cashed a ticket on South Carolina in their last game as they escaped with a win in Philadelphia over Providence and back in mid November I cashed a ticket on Baylor in St. Thomas over Notre Dame. Baylor has really started the year strong at 7-1 SU and 3-1 ATS. Their lone SU/ATS loss was back on Nov. 30 in a game they were up by 12 at the half against the 6th ranked Washington State Cougars and were outscored by 15 in the 2nd half on route to a 3 point home loss. Still a very good indicator overall of how good this team is as Washington State is certainly one of the better teams in the country. Baylor is led by a fantastic 5 guard rotation, senior Aaron Bruce (11.1ppg, 42.3% 3PT FG), junior Curtis Jerrells (13.1ppg, 43.2% 3PT FG), junior Henry Dugat (9.1ppg), sophomore Tweety Carter (9.5ppg, 47.4 FG%, 45.2 3PT FG), and lastly stud freshman LaceDarius Dunn (12.4ppg, 48.3% FG, 47.2 3PT FG). They are anchored in the front court by junior forward Kevin Rogers (12.1ppg, 7.1rpg). Offensively with all of these stud guards Baylor has been extremely efficient averaging just below 80 points per game, they are shooting 47.8% from the field and 42.2% from 3 point range. Defensively strong as well holding opponents to 62.5ppg, 39% field goal shooting and 32.8% from the 3 point line. The Bears are a very deep team as well as they run a 9 man rotation which ranges in floor time from 17.5 per game to 29.5 minutes per game. They stay fresh and have some very talented guards that come off the bench that don?t miss a beat when starters are resting. South Carolina enters this game 5-4 SU on the year and tonight will be playing their first game after a 12 day layoff. They enter off a win against Providence in a game that was dominated by the Gamecock guards, Downey, Fredrick and Raley-Ross carried them to a nice win on a neutral court. The matchup problems for the Friars was clearly evident from the start as they did not have the guards to matchup with the Gamecocks, tonight South Carolina will face the best set of guards they?ve seen since the 10 point USC loss. I expect Jerrells and crew to get the necessary pressure on the Gamecocks and force them into a lot of mistakes something they do when pressured. They have too much depth and too much experience for South Carolina tonight, outside of the big 3 for South Carolina they don?t get much support for scoring and they are very short on the bench. While this technically is Baylor?s first true road test, they have shown they can travel after picking up big wins against Wichita State, Notre Dame and Winthrop on neutral floors in mid November. Tonight?s game in my opinion won?t be a true example of a road environment with kids on break for the holidays and a under the radar team like Baylor visiting. Also it is important to note that South Carolina has same season revenge with in state rival Clemson on deck at home just 3 days from today. I currently have this line at +3.5/+3 and expect it will waiver around these numbers for most of the day. I have this rated at 10* down to 1. My 10* College Basketball Game of the Day is the Baylor Bears plus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let?s make some money.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stan Lisowski NBA GOM
Washington
Stan Lisowski NBA GOM
Washington
Dr Bob :00hour
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here is the analysis of all Best Bets and strong opinions plus the two other games that are played this week.
3 Star Selection
***Connecticut 27 Wake Forest (-3.0) 21 (at Meineke Bowl - Charlotte) 10:00 AM Pacific, 29-Dec-07 Connecticut was destroyed by West Virginia 21-66 in their regular season finale, but that shouldn?t take away from the great season that the Huskies had. U Conn was 9-3 for the season and their only losses by more than 1 point were to a very good Cincinnati team and to West Virginia. The other loss was by just 1 point to Virginia and the Huskies have wins against Louisville and South Florida to their credit. Wake Forest, meanwhile, didn?t beat a team all season that is rated higher than Connecticut in my ratings. The best team that the Demon Deacons beat was Florida State, which is about the same as the Huskies, and Wake?s only other victories against better than average teams came at home in overtime against Maryland (when Maryland was a below average team with Steffy at quarterback) and at Vanderbilt.
The strength of this Huskies team is a defense that gave up 19 points or less in 9 of their 11 games with only good offensive teams Cincinnati (27 points) and West Virginia scoring 20 points or more against them. Connecticut?s defensive weakness is stopping good running teams, but Wake Forest is not a good running team (4.0 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team) and Deacons are not likely to take advantage. Wake Forest isn?t a good passing team either, as Riley Skinner averaged 5.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and he?ll have a tough time throwing against a very good Connecticut pass defense that yielded just 5.0 yppp (to teams that would average 6.2 yppp against an average defense) while picking off 22 passes. Wake Forest faced 4 better than average defensive teams this season (Boston College, Virginia, Clemson, and Vanderbilt) and the Demon Deacons averaged only 4.2 yppl in those 4 games while not topping 4.4 yppl in any of them. I don?t see Wake Forest having much success against Connecticut?s solid defense either.
Wake Forest also has a good defense, as the Demon Deacons allowed just 4.7 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. Connecticut is nothing special offensively, as the Huskies are average running the ball and slightly worse than average throwing it (5.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB), but quarterback Tyler Lorenzen has thrown just 5 interceptions all season, which is why the Huskies are better than average in compensated scoring (27.8 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 25.5 points to an average team). My math model projects 4.7 yppl for both teams in this game, but Wake Forest hasn?t gained more than 4.4 yppl against a better than average defense this season so I think the Huskies will do a better job of moving the football even though my math model projects the yardage as even. Connecticut has an edge in projected turnovers but Wake Forest has a special teams edge. Overall, my math model favors Wake Forest by ? a point, so the line value favors U Conn and I think the Huskies will win straight up.
Connecticut applies to a 37-8-1 ATS Bowl situation while Wake Forest applies to a negative 7-34 ATS bowl situation. Try not to overreact to Connecticut?s last game (that 21-66 loss to West Virginia), as teams that lost their previous game by more than 38 points are actually 11-2 ATS in bowl games and teams that gave up 65 points or more in their final regular season game are 4-1 ATS in bowls. The fact that Connecticut gave up 66 points in one game and still allowed an average of just 18.6 points for the season tells you how good the Huskies? defense was for most of the season.
I?ll take Connecticut in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (-1.12 odds or less) and for 2-Stars from +3 (-1.13 odds or higher) to +1 point.
3 Star Selection
***Georgia Tech (-4.5) 34 Fresno St. 20 (at Humanitarian Bowl - Boise) 11:00 AM Pacific, 31-Dec-07 massive attrition and they?ve been horrible defensively ever since. Fresno lost defensive line stars Jason Roberts and Jason Shirley after 3 games each and then lost DE Ikenna Ike a couple of weeks later. Starting strong safety Lorne Bell has since been added to that list, so the Bulldogs are down 4 defensive starters since the start of the season. Fresno State has not been able to stop the run since losing Roberts and Shirley, as the Bulldogs allowed 6.1 yards per rushing play in their final 9 regular season games (to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yprp against an average defense). The Bulldogs are only slightly worse than average defending the pass, but Georgia Tech won?t need to pass the ball in this game with their strong offensive line going up against Fresno?s weak defensive front. Georgia Tech has two great running backs in Tashard Choice (1310 yards at 5.3 ypr) and Jonathan Dwyer (374 yards at 5.3 ypr) and the Yellow Jackets also give running quarterback Josh Nesbitt a few series each game and he?s run for 302 yards at 6.4 yards per rushing play. Taylor Bennett is nothing special at quarterback (0.2 yards per pass play worse than average) but he won?t be asked to do much in this game, as my math model projects 7.2 yards per rushing play for Georgia Tech against that horrible Fresno defensive front.
Fresno State put up pretty good offensive numbers (5.9 yards per play) but the Bulldogs faced a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team and they are at a disadvantage against a solid Georgia Tech defense (4.8 yppl allowed to 11 Division 1A opponents that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense). The Yellow Jackets are good against the run (4.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.5 yprp) and they have one of the best pass rushes in the nation, averaging 3.9 sacks per game, so they are likely to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against Fresno, which is a good indicator of pointspread success. In fact, Georgia Tech applies to a statistical match-up indicator that is 28-3-2 ATS in bowl games.
Fresno State does have an advantage in special teams with All-American kick returner A.J. Jefferson, but Georgia Tech has an All-American punter and their special teams are good too. My math model favors Georgia Tech by 8 ? points and the indicator favoring the Yellow Jackets makes this an even better play. Fresno State is 25-8 ATS as an underdog against non-conference opponents under coach Pat Hill, but they?ve never had a defense as bad as this year?s edition. I?ll take Georgia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars at -6 ? or -7 points.
2 Star Selection
**Navy 33 Utah (-8.0) 32 (at Poinsettia Bowl) 06:00 PM Pacific, 20-Dec-07 I?m not sure how fired up Utah will be for this game after losing their season finale to rival BYU, and the Utes? very good defense (4.6 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) isn?t so great defending the run, which is what they?ll have to do in this game. Utah allowed a mediocre 4.8 yards per rushing play this season to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team and they allowed the Air Force option to ramble for 344 ground yards at 5.6 yprp in an early season loss. Navy has averaged 358 yards at 5.9 yprp on the ground this season and the running portion of their option attack should be as good as always in this game. Utah is amongst the best in the nation at defending the pass (4.4 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.4 yppp) but that does them little good against the Midshipmen.
Navy?s defense was horrendous this season defending the pass (8.0 yppp allowed to teams that would average only 5.4 yppp against an average team), but Utah?s Brian Johnson is a below average passer (5.7 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback) and Navy is pretty decent at defending the run (4.6 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.4 yprp). Johnson is likely to post good passing numbers and Utah will run the ball with success too, but Navy should be able to match the Utes on the scoreboard.
My math model takes match-ups into account and the math favors Utah by just 8 points in this game, so the line is fair. The reason for the play is based on technical factors. Navy applies to an 18-1-3 ATS subset of a 35-5-4 ATS bowl situation while also applying to a 40-9 ATS bowl game statistical match-up indicator. Navy?s head coach Paul Johnson has moved onto a job at Georgia Tech, but longtime offensive assistant Ken Niumatalolo will keep the offensive system in place and you can be assured that Navy is working hard preparing for this game. Some teams have difficulty staying focused during the weeks of preparing for a bowl game but Military Academies are very disciplined and that seems to pay off in bowl season. In fact, Army, Navy and Air Force are a combined 20-6 ATS in all bowl games since 1976 (Navy is 6-2 ATS), including 10-2 ATS as an underdog of 7 points or more. Interim coaches are 13-6 ATS in bowl games in recent years, so the coaching change shouldn?t affect the Middies? preparation for this game either. Navy has a long history of playing well away from home, as the Midshipmen are 107-62-2 ATS in all games away from home the last 28 years, including 66-34 ATS as an underdog of more than 6 points. This game is strong enough technically to be at least a 3-Star Best Bet, but I?m uncomfortable making a big play on a team with such a bad pass defense, as Utah could easily decide to throw the ball 50 times to take advantage of that bad Navy secondary ? although I doubt that they will with Darrell Mack in the backfield to run the ball.
I?ll take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 or more.
2 Star Selection
**UCLA 24 BYU (-6.0) 21 (at Las Vegas Bowl) 05:00 PM Pacific, 22-Dec-07 Ucla?s program might be in disarray with Karl Durrell being dismissed, but the Bruins are better than their 6-6 record would indicate. The Bruins played the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation this season and I?m positive that BYU would be 6-6 or no better than 7-5 if they had played UCLA?s schedule. The Bruins? 27-17 win over BYU in the Rose Bowl in September was actually a bad game for UCLA, who was out-gained 3.7 yards per play to 5.6 yppl by the Cougars that day. I?m sure BYU wants their revenge but they are unlikely to dominate the yardage as they did in that first meeting.
BYU?s offense averaged 5.9 yppl this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl but that unit is at a disadvantage against a very good UCLA defense that yielded just 4.7 yppl against a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team (after adjusting for playing Oregon without Dennis Dixon). BYU?s defense is almost as good, allowing 4.6 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl, and the Bruins? offense was 0.2 yppl worse than average for the season. However, starting quarterback Ben Olson will be back behind center and his passing numbers (5.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback) are significantly better than the team?s passing rating of -0.3 yppp. The Bruins? rushing attack has been 0.3 yards per rushing play worse than average (3.8 yprp against teams that would allow 4.1 yprp to an average team) in 4 games since leading rusher Kahlil Bell (795 yards at 5.6 ypr in just over 7 games) was injured early in UCLA?s 8th game against Washington State. UCLA?s offense is just average without Bell and with Olson at quarterback, so they?re not going to have an easy time moving the ball. Thankfully, UCLA?s brilliant special teams and their defensive advantage over BYU?s offense will lead to better field position for the offense to work with.
My math model does call for BYU to have more total yards in this game but UCLA?s special teams advantage is significant and my math favors the Bruins by 2 points in this game. While my math model is very complicated, even a simple math approach shows that this line is too high. BYU played a schedule that was 0.6 points worse than average and they won by an average of 12.4 points (so they would be +11.8 points against an average schedule). UCLA only out-scored their opponents by 0.1 points but the Bruins played a schedule that was 8.2 points tougher than average, so they are +8.3 points based purely on points. The difference in adjusted point differential is BYU by 3.6 points, but UCLA?s offense is better with Ben Olson at quarterback, even with RB Bell out. UCLA also had 2 fumbles returned for TD?s against them, which is random, so that?s 14 points random points (1.2 per game) that should be factored out of the adjusted points analysis, which leaves us with BYU by 2.4 points without factoring in the return of Olson for the Bruins. Even if the line should be BYU by 3 points then getting 6 points with UCLA is a 58.8% play.
The Bruins are reportedly eager to atone for their bad season and there is no doubt that they have better overall talent than BYU does. UCLA just had problems staying consistently motivated under Dorrell, as they only seemed to play well after a loss or when challenged by a good team. That motivation exists in this game, as the Bruins are off a season ending loss (but cover) against USC and they?re an underdog. The senior class at UCLA is 14-3 ATS in games after a loss and they?ve covered 10 straight games as an underdog (5-0 ATS this year). It is clear that UCLA is not getting enough credit for playing a Pac-10 schedule. Pac-10 teams are 181-124-3 ATS (59.3%) since 1980 as an underdog against non-conference opponents, including 77-34-2 ATS as underdogs of less than 7 points against teams that are .500 or better straight up entering the game. Pac 10 teams are also 32-17 ATS as underdogs or picks in bowl games, including 24-8 ATS against teams entering the bowl off a win in their regular season finale. UCLA certainly has the talent to play with any team (as their 10-0 dog record suggests) and they?d love to play well for interim coach and defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker, who is the player?s choice to be the next head coach.
I?ll take UCLA in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7 or more.
2 Star Selection
**Clemson (-1.5) 26 Auburn 16 (at Chick-fil-A Bowl at Atlanta) 04:30 PM Pacific, 31-Dec-07 Both of these teams are strong defensively, but Clemson has the better offense, isn?t as likely to turn the ball over and has better special teams. Clemson has averaged 5.7 yards per play this season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Tigers are just average offensively after adjusting for the loss of big play receiver Jacoby Ford, who missed the final 4 regular season games and is out for this game. Ford averaged 18.2 yards on his 17 receptions and the Tigers have nobody to replace those yards with the other top receivers combining to average only 11.8 yards per catch. Ford also ran for 172 yards on just 14 rushing plays and Clemson?s rushing attack goes from 0.4 yards per rushing play better than average to 0.2 yprp better than average if you take Ford?s numbers out. Clemson will have trouble moving the ball against a very good Auburn defense that has yielded just 4.6 yppl in 11 games against Division 1A opponents who would average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team.
Auburn?s offense doesn?t figure to do much either, as the Tigers were held to 4.8 yppl or lower in 8 of their 11 games against 1A opposition and averaged only 4.8 yppl overall in those games (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team). Clemson?s defense yielded only 4.5 yppl in their 11 division 1A games to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, so they have a 1.2 yppl advantage over Auburn?s offense. Unfortunately, starting linebackers Nick Watkins (leading tackler) and Tramaine Billie (3rd leading tackler) are likely to miss this game due to bad academic standing, which affects the defense a bit. Neither player made a lot of impact defensive plays, as they combined for just 2 sacks and 5 other tackles for loss, so I don?t expect a major drop in performance from the Tigers? defense - but I?ll dock the Tigers 0.2 yppl for their loss.
With Watkins and Billie out for Clemson, Auburn has a slight edge from the line of scrimmage, but Clemson quarterback Cullen Harper has thrown just 6 interceptions on 400 passes (1.5%) while Auburn?s Brandon Cox has thrown 12 picks on only 277 passes (4.3%). In a defensive battle turnovers will probably make the difference and Clemson is likely to win that battle while also having a slight edge in special teams. Overall my math model favors Clemson by 2 points in this game and Clemson applies to a 37-8-1 ATS bowl situation at -3 points or less while also applying to a 70-28-2 ATS bowl games statistical match-up indicator (also if they are -3 or less).
I?ll take Clemson in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points (-112 odds or better) or less. I?ll also lean with the Under at 45 points or higher.
2 Star Selection
**Wisconsin 31 Tennessee (-3.0) 27 (at Outback Bowl at Tampa) 08:00 AM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 These two teams are very similar, as both teams are good offensively, mediocre on defense and have very good special teams. Tennessee averaged 5.7 yards per play for the season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team), but Erik Ainge improved a bit once the broken pinky on this throwing hand was completely healthy after the week 5 bye. That attack will be going up against a mediocre Wisconsin defense that allowed 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. I actually rate the Badgers as 0.2 yppl worse than average after losing starting CB Allen Lanford and DT Jason Chapman late in the season. But, star LB Elijah Hodge should be at full strength after missing most of the last two games with minor injuries.
Wisconsin?s offense should also move the ball well. The Badgers averaged 5.8 yppl in the regular season against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, but Wisconsin was slightly worse (by 0.1 yppl) in the final 6 games without big play receiver Luke Swan, who will also miss this game. The loss of running back P.J. Hill will have no impact at all since Hill?s compensated yards per rush (5.0 ypr against teams that would allow 4.9 ypr to an average back) is the same as that of Zach Brown (4.9 ypr against teams that would allow 4.8 ypr), who took over for Hill the final 3 games of the regular season. Lance Smith-Williams and his 6.2 ypr is also available, so the Badgers could be even better running the ball without Hill. Tennessee?s defense was only 0.2 yppl better than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl), so the Badgers have an advantage when they have the ball.
Neither quarterback is interception prone, having thrown 10 picks each, and my math model favors Tennessee by 3 points in this game - which is what the line is. The reason for the play on Wisconsin is a 16-0 ATS subset of a 37-8-1 ATS bowl situation and a 32-7 ATS bowl angle that both favor Wisconsin. The Badgers played below expectations this season (4-7 ATS) but they were still good enough to make it to one of the New Year?s Bowl games. Good teams that under-performed in the regular season tend to improve during the month-plus of bowl preparation, as teams playing in major bowl games (the 5 BCS Bowls plus the other New Year?s Day Bowls ? the Outback, Cotton, Citrus, and Gator) are 18-8 ATS as underdogs if they had a losing pointspread record in the regular season when facing a team that has a winning pointspread mark (12-4 ATS against teams that were 3 games or more above .500 ATS, as the Vols were).
I?ll play this game on the basis of the strong technical indicators and I?ll take Wisconsin in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points (-115 odds or less) or more.
2 Star Selection
**Hawaii 32 Georgia (-8.5) 31 (at Sugar Bowl) 05:30 PM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 Unbeaten Hawaii had some close calls against a few bad teams, but the Warriors raised their level of play against the good teams that they faced and they have a pretty good shot at an outright upset in this game. Hawaii played their toughest 4 opponents in their final 4 games of the year, facing Bowl teams Fresno State, Nevada, Boise State and Pac-10 rep Washington, who would have been a bowl team if they didn?t face the toughest schedule in the nation. In those 4 games the Warriors averaged 7.5 yards per play while allowing only 5.3 yppl. Those are very impressive numbers considering that those 4 opponents would combine to average 5.9 yppl and allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. For the season Hawaii?s potent attack was 1.5 yppl better than average (7.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack), but they were 2.2 yppl better than average in those final 4 games when challenged by decent teams. Hawaii has the type of offense that can move the ball even on good defensive teams, so they are relatively better when facing good defenses than they are against bad defensive teams since the level of opposing defense doesn?t have as much impact on Hawaii?s attack. That has certainly been the case with Colt Brennan, who was 1.7 yards per pass play better than average for the season (8.3 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp) but was 2.1 yppp better than average against the 6 mediocre or better than average pass defenses he faced (8.1 yppp against Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Fresno, Boise and Washington ? who would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback). Georgia has a very good pass defense that yielded just 5.5 yppp in 11 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average team. Colt Brennan is not fazed by good defensive teams, as he threw for nearly 500 yards and averaged 8.8 yppp against Boise State ? the best pass defense he faced this season. Boise, at 0.5 yppp better than average defending the pass, is not quite as good as Georgia?s pass defense (the Bulldogs are 0.9 yppp better than average), but Brennan faced some very good pass defenses last season and thrived. Brennan threw for 9.9 yppp against the 2006 unbeaten Boise State team that was 0.8 yppp better than average against the pass and he averaged 8.6 yppp combined last season in games against the good pass defenses of Alabama, Boise State, Oregon State and Arizona State. Those teams would have combined to allow 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback, which is pretty close to how good Georgia?s defense is this year. That included Brennan?s 542 yards at 11.8 yppp in the bowl game against an Arizona State defense that was 0.6 yppp better than average. My math model projects 6.9 yppp for Brennan in this game but that number would be 7.4 yppp based on his habit of playing relatively better against better defensive teams. Hawaii has scored 28 points or more in 25 consecutive games and the Warriors are likely to top 30 points in this game.
What is often overlooked is how good Hawaii?s defense has been this season. The Warriors didn?t have to flex their defensive muscle too often, as they played a lot of bad offensive teams, but that defense played great when challenged by good offensive teams in their final 3 games. The only better than average offensive teams that Hawaii faced were Nevada, Boise State and Washington, who would combine to average 6.0 yards per play against an average defensive team. The Warriors finished the season against those 3 good offensive teams and held them to a combined 5.2 yppl. For the season Hawaii yielded 5.0 yppl in 10 games against Division 1A opposition that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Georgia?s offense was only 0.6 yppl better than average in their 11 games against D-1A competition with Matt Stafford in the game (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl), so the Bulldogs only have a 0.3 yppl advantage over Hawaii?s defense and I actually think the Warriors? stop unit is just as good as Georgia?s offense when they are forced to play at fully intensity ? as they will be in this game.
My math model favors Georgia by only 5 points even with a 2.2 points edge for projected turnovers and a 3.9 points advantage for the Bulldogs in special teams and Hawaii is 50/50 to win this game straight up if they play this game at the level they?ve played against other good teams that they?ve faced. This game is similar to the situation that unbeaten WAC champion Boise State was in last season as a 7 point underdog to Oklahoma (a 43-42 winner). While Hawaii played a pretty easy schedule they did play their best against the best teams they faced and they have the confidence that they can beat anyone. Teams with 1 loss or fewer are 22-6 ATS in bowl games as underdogs of 7 points or more (6- 0 ATS the last 4 years), so getting a touchdown or more with a team that is not used to losing has been a pretty good bet. I realize that Georgia played their best ball down the stretch, but they aren?t likely to continue to play at such a high level after having more than a month off. In fact, teams that finished the regular season by covering 3 or more consecutive games are just 40% ATS in bowl games since 1980 (51-76-2 ATS) when not facing a team also on a 3 game spread win streak.
I?ll take Hawaii in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 or more.
Best Bet UNDER
**UNDER - Central Florida (-3.0) 27 Mississippi St. 24 (at Liberty Bowl - Memphis) 01:30 PM Pacific, 29-Dec-07 The side on this game is tough to pick as there are situations favoring both sides and my math model favors UCF by 3 points, which is what the line is. However, the Under looks like a good play. Central Florida averaged 6.0 yards per play and 38.4 points in the regular season but their offense isn?t really that much better than average since they accumulated those numbers against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl and 35.6 points to an average team. Mississippi State?s defense yielded only 5.1 yppl in 11 games against Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit. Mississippi State?s defense actually has a pretty significant advantage in this game and the Golden Knights built up their offensive numbers against bad defensive teams while struggling against mediocre or good stop units. UCF averaged only 4.4 yppl in 4 games against average or better defensive teams (NC State, Texas, South Florida, and Southern Miss), who would combine to allow 5.0 yppl to an average team.
The defense has the advantage when Miss State has the ball too, as the Bulldogs have averaged only 4.5 yppl in their last 6 games with freshman Wesley Carroll at quarterback - against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team. Those numbers are actually better than Miss State?s -0.7 yppl full season rating, as they were even worse offensively before Carroll took over. Central Florida has a solid defense that yielded just 5.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, so Miss State will have trouble moving the ball as well.
With neither team expected to move the ball at a better than average rate it is not likely that this game is higher scoring than the national average of 54.4 total points. Central Florida?s special teams do add offense as they are great in returns and bad in coverage, but my math model predicts just 52 ? points after factoring in special teams. If the total should be 52 ? points then there is a 61.5% chance of going Under the current total of 58 ? points (and 60.4% chance of going Under 58 points).
I?ll pass on the side, but I?ll go UNDER 58 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet and consider the Under a Strong Opinion from 56 to 57 ? points.
Strong Opinion
Boise St. (-10.5) 41 East Carolina 25 (at Hawaii Bowl) 05:00 PM Pacific, 23-Dec-07 Boise State lost to the only two better than average teams that they played this year, dropping road games to Washington and Hawaii, but the Broncos won their other 9 games against Division 1A teams by an average score of 47-19 while winning 8 of those 9 games by double-digit margins. East Carolina may be 7-5, but don?t mistake the Pirates for a better than average team. East Carolina out-scored their opponents by an average of 0.4 points per game while playing a schedule that was 4.5 points worse than average. The Pirates do have one quality win, a 52-38 home win over CUSA champ Central Florida, but it took a +5 in turnover margin to win that game.
The Pirates are decent offensively, averaging 5.7 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack, and that unit should move the ball at a decent rate against a Boise State defense that was 0.1 yppl better than average in 11 games against Division 1A opponents (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team). It?s the other side of the ball where the Pirates have their problems and where they?ll be overmatched in this game. East Carolina allowed 5.7 yppl this season to a collection of teams that would combine to average only 5.2 yppl against an average stop unit. That defense doesn?t have much of a chance to stop a balanced Boise State attack that averaged 6.3 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. Boise State feasted on worse than average defensive teams and should score a good number of points in this game.
Enhancing Boise?s overall advantage from the line of scrimmage in this game is their great special teams, which once against ranks among the best in the nation and consistently supplies the Broncos with good field position while pinning their opponents deep in their end of the field. A team that out-gains their opponents 6.3 yppl to 5.0 yppl, as Boise did in their 11 games against 1A competition would normally out-score their opponents by about 12 points per game, but Boise State out-scored their 11 Division 1A opponents by 20.3 points per game in part because of their incredible special teams. East Carolina has mediocre special teams and that should be the difference between a competitive game and a potential blowout.
My math model favors Boise State by 17 points in this game but I?ll resist making Boise State a Best Bet because East Carolina is 15-4 ATS as an underdog under coach Skip Holtz (although 0-1 as a Bowl underdog). My math model also predicts a total of 65.3 points and the Under looks like a decent play too. I did my profile analysis on this game, which basically projects scores based on how well each team has played against teams with similar statistical characteristics (using regression analysis on each facet of the opponent?s stats ? run offense, pass defense, etc). The profile analysis of Boise State suggests that they?d total 66 points against a team with East Carolina?s level of offense and defense while the profile analysis on ECU projects a total of 63 total points against a team with Boise State?s statistical profile. Either way, the games is likely to go under the 70 point total.
I?ll consider Boise State a Strong Opinion at -11 points or less and I?ll lean with the Under at 69 points or higher.
Strong Opinion
Florida (-10.0) 37 Michigan 22 (at Capital One Bowl - Orlando) 10:00 AM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 Florida is the best team in the nation despite their 3 losses and the Gators spread attack should be no match for a Michigan team that was torched by the similar spread offenses of Appalachian State and Oregon early in the season. Florida?s offense is easily the best in the nation, as the Gators averaged 210 yards on the ground at 5.8 yards per rushing play while Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow averaged a ridiculous 9.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall, Florida averaged a stunning 7.3 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) while averaging 5.5 yppl or more against every team they faced. Michigan?s defensive numbers are good for the season, as the Wolverines yielded 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit. However, spread offenses with good running quarterbacks (i.e. Appalachian State and Oregon) gave the Wolverines trouble as Appalachian averaged 5.9 yppl and scored 34 points while Oregon racked up 610 total yards at 8.1 yppl and had 32 points at the half before calling off the dogs in a 39-7 victory at Ann Arbor. I?m sure Michigan will try to devise ways to defend the spread better than they did in those two games, but my math model projects 6.9 yppl and 38 points for Florida in this game if Michigan plays as well defensively as they did overall this season.
Michigan?s offense just isn?t good enough to keep up, as the Wolverines were 0.3 yppl worse than average for the season (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). Michigan was 0.1 yppl worse than average with running back Mike Hart, quarterback Chad Henne, and WR Mario Manningham all playing, but that?s still not good enough. Running against Florida is not easy (the Gators allowed just 3.8 yprp to teams that would average 4.9 yprp aginst an average team), but Henne and Manningham should have pretty good success against a sub-par Gators? pass defense that allowed 6.2 yppp this season to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average defensive team. Michigan will probably be too conservative to take advantage of the only match-up that may work for them in this game and my math model projects 346 total yards at 5.1 yppl if they throw the ball a bit more than they run it instead of running it 53% of the time as they normally do.
In addition to dominating this game in total yards the Gators also have much better special teams than Michigan does and my math model favors Florida by 17 points. I?d like to play Florida here but the Gators apply to a negative 36-67-1 ATS Bowl angle that will keep me off of this game as a Best Bet. I?ll consider Florida a Strong Opinion at -10 points or less and I?ll lean with the Gators if the line goes higher than 10 points.
Other Games
Florida Atl. (-2.5) 36 Memphis 31 (at New Orleans Bowl) 05:00 PM Pacific, 21-Dec-07 Despite being favored, Florida Atlantic isn?t getting enough respect in this game because they reside in the lowly Sun Belt Conference. However, Conference USA, from which Memphis hails, was just as bad as the Sun Belt this season and Memphis is a horrible team whose best win came against a Southern Miss team that is about 5 points worse than an average Division 1A team. Memphis? 7 wins have come against teams that are on average 17 ? points worse than an average team. Florida Atlantic got to this bowl game by beating a good Troy State team that is a couple of points better than an average Division 1A team and the Owls played a schedule that was 9 points tougher than what Memphis played (and each team was 7-5). The Owls are led by sophomore star quarterback Rusty Smith, who averaged an impressive 7.1 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Smith also threw just 8 interceptions on 447 passes (1.8%). Overall, Florida Atlantic is only 0.1 yards per play worse than an average Division 1A team on the offensive side of the ball with Smith in the game (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team). That unit will have no trouble scoring against a horrible Memphis defense that gave up 6.2 yppl this season to a schedule of bad offensive teams that would combine to average only 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Memphis rates the same as Florida Atlantic on the offense side of the ball, as the Tigers have averaged 5.9 yppl with Martin Hankins behind center ? against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. Hankins, however, is more turnover prone than his counterpart, as he?s thrown picks on 3.1% of his passes this season. The difference in this game is defense ? Memphis has a horrible defense and Florida Atlantic has a decent defense. The Owls have yielded a respectable 5.6 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team, so they are 1.3 yppl better than the Tigers? stop unit.
My math model projects Florida Atlantic to out-gain Memphis 504 yards to 402 yards in this game while also having an advantage in predicted turnovers. The Owls do have horrible special teams, but their special teams are only 1.6 points worse than the Tigers poor special teams units. Overall the math model favors Florida Atlantic by 10 points and I?d love to play the Owls in this game. Unfortunately, Florida Atlantic applies to a negative 7-34 ATS bowl situation and a 1-18 ATS bowl situation and those angles will keep me from playing the Owls.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here is the analysis of all Best Bets and strong opinions plus the two other games that are played this week.
3 Star Selection
***Connecticut 27 Wake Forest (-3.0) 21 (at Meineke Bowl - Charlotte) 10:00 AM Pacific, 29-Dec-07 Connecticut was destroyed by West Virginia 21-66 in their regular season finale, but that shouldn?t take away from the great season that the Huskies had. U Conn was 9-3 for the season and their only losses by more than 1 point were to a very good Cincinnati team and to West Virginia. The other loss was by just 1 point to Virginia and the Huskies have wins against Louisville and South Florida to their credit. Wake Forest, meanwhile, didn?t beat a team all season that is rated higher than Connecticut in my ratings. The best team that the Demon Deacons beat was Florida State, which is about the same as the Huskies, and Wake?s only other victories against better than average teams came at home in overtime against Maryland (when Maryland was a below average team with Steffy at quarterback) and at Vanderbilt.
The strength of this Huskies team is a defense that gave up 19 points or less in 9 of their 11 games with only good offensive teams Cincinnati (27 points) and West Virginia scoring 20 points or more against them. Connecticut?s defensive weakness is stopping good running teams, but Wake Forest is not a good running team (4.0 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team) and Deacons are not likely to take advantage. Wake Forest isn?t a good passing team either, as Riley Skinner averaged 5.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and he?ll have a tough time throwing against a very good Connecticut pass defense that yielded just 5.0 yppp (to teams that would average 6.2 yppp against an average defense) while picking off 22 passes. Wake Forest faced 4 better than average defensive teams this season (Boston College, Virginia, Clemson, and Vanderbilt) and the Demon Deacons averaged only 4.2 yppl in those 4 games while not topping 4.4 yppl in any of them. I don?t see Wake Forest having much success against Connecticut?s solid defense either.
Wake Forest also has a good defense, as the Demon Deacons allowed just 4.7 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. Connecticut is nothing special offensively, as the Huskies are average running the ball and slightly worse than average throwing it (5.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB), but quarterback Tyler Lorenzen has thrown just 5 interceptions all season, which is why the Huskies are better than average in compensated scoring (27.8 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 25.5 points to an average team). My math model projects 4.7 yppl for both teams in this game, but Wake Forest hasn?t gained more than 4.4 yppl against a better than average defense this season so I think the Huskies will do a better job of moving the football even though my math model projects the yardage as even. Connecticut has an edge in projected turnovers but Wake Forest has a special teams edge. Overall, my math model favors Wake Forest by ? a point, so the line value favors U Conn and I think the Huskies will win straight up.
Connecticut applies to a 37-8-1 ATS Bowl situation while Wake Forest applies to a negative 7-34 ATS bowl situation. Try not to overreact to Connecticut?s last game (that 21-66 loss to West Virginia), as teams that lost their previous game by more than 38 points are actually 11-2 ATS in bowl games and teams that gave up 65 points or more in their final regular season game are 4-1 ATS in bowls. The fact that Connecticut gave up 66 points in one game and still allowed an average of just 18.6 points for the season tells you how good the Huskies? defense was for most of the season.
I?ll take Connecticut in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (-1.12 odds or less) and for 2-Stars from +3 (-1.13 odds or higher) to +1 point.
3 Star Selection
***Georgia Tech (-4.5) 34 Fresno St. 20 (at Humanitarian Bowl - Boise) 11:00 AM Pacific, 31-Dec-07 massive attrition and they?ve been horrible defensively ever since. Fresno lost defensive line stars Jason Roberts and Jason Shirley after 3 games each and then lost DE Ikenna Ike a couple of weeks later. Starting strong safety Lorne Bell has since been added to that list, so the Bulldogs are down 4 defensive starters since the start of the season. Fresno State has not been able to stop the run since losing Roberts and Shirley, as the Bulldogs allowed 6.1 yards per rushing play in their final 9 regular season games (to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yprp against an average defense). The Bulldogs are only slightly worse than average defending the pass, but Georgia Tech won?t need to pass the ball in this game with their strong offensive line going up against Fresno?s weak defensive front. Georgia Tech has two great running backs in Tashard Choice (1310 yards at 5.3 ypr) and Jonathan Dwyer (374 yards at 5.3 ypr) and the Yellow Jackets also give running quarterback Josh Nesbitt a few series each game and he?s run for 302 yards at 6.4 yards per rushing play. Taylor Bennett is nothing special at quarterback (0.2 yards per pass play worse than average) but he won?t be asked to do much in this game, as my math model projects 7.2 yards per rushing play for Georgia Tech against that horrible Fresno defensive front.
Fresno State put up pretty good offensive numbers (5.9 yards per play) but the Bulldogs faced a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team and they are at a disadvantage against a solid Georgia Tech defense (4.8 yppl allowed to 11 Division 1A opponents that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense). The Yellow Jackets are good against the run (4.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.5 yprp) and they have one of the best pass rushes in the nation, averaging 3.9 sacks per game, so they are likely to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball against Fresno, which is a good indicator of pointspread success. In fact, Georgia Tech applies to a statistical match-up indicator that is 28-3-2 ATS in bowl games.
Fresno State does have an advantage in special teams with All-American kick returner A.J. Jefferson, but Georgia Tech has an All-American punter and their special teams are good too. My math model favors Georgia Tech by 8 ? points and the indicator favoring the Yellow Jackets makes this an even better play. Fresno State is 25-8 ATS as an underdog against non-conference opponents under coach Pat Hill, but they?ve never had a defense as bad as this year?s edition. I?ll take Georgia Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less and for 2-Stars at -6 ? or -7 points.
2 Star Selection
**Navy 33 Utah (-8.0) 32 (at Poinsettia Bowl) 06:00 PM Pacific, 20-Dec-07 I?m not sure how fired up Utah will be for this game after losing their season finale to rival BYU, and the Utes? very good defense (4.6 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defense) isn?t so great defending the run, which is what they?ll have to do in this game. Utah allowed a mediocre 4.8 yards per rushing play this season to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team and they allowed the Air Force option to ramble for 344 ground yards at 5.6 yprp in an early season loss. Navy has averaged 358 yards at 5.9 yprp on the ground this season and the running portion of their option attack should be as good as always in this game. Utah is amongst the best in the nation at defending the pass (4.4 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.4 yppp) but that does them little good against the Midshipmen.
Navy?s defense was horrendous this season defending the pass (8.0 yppp allowed to teams that would average only 5.4 yppp against an average team), but Utah?s Brian Johnson is a below average passer (5.7 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback) and Navy is pretty decent at defending the run (4.6 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.4 yprp). Johnson is likely to post good passing numbers and Utah will run the ball with success too, but Navy should be able to match the Utes on the scoreboard.
My math model takes match-ups into account and the math favors Utah by just 8 points in this game, so the line is fair. The reason for the play is based on technical factors. Navy applies to an 18-1-3 ATS subset of a 35-5-4 ATS bowl situation while also applying to a 40-9 ATS bowl game statistical match-up indicator. Navy?s head coach Paul Johnson has moved onto a job at Georgia Tech, but longtime offensive assistant Ken Niumatalolo will keep the offensive system in place and you can be assured that Navy is working hard preparing for this game. Some teams have difficulty staying focused during the weeks of preparing for a bowl game but Military Academies are very disciplined and that seems to pay off in bowl season. In fact, Army, Navy and Air Force are a combined 20-6 ATS in all bowl games since 1976 (Navy is 6-2 ATS), including 10-2 ATS as an underdog of 7 points or more. Interim coaches are 13-6 ATS in bowl games in recent years, so the coaching change shouldn?t affect the Middies? preparation for this game either. Navy has a long history of playing well away from home, as the Midshipmen are 107-62-2 ATS in all games away from home the last 28 years, including 66-34 ATS as an underdog of more than 6 points. This game is strong enough technically to be at least a 3-Star Best Bet, but I?m uncomfortable making a big play on a team with such a bad pass defense, as Utah could easily decide to throw the ball 50 times to take advantage of that bad Navy secondary ? although I doubt that they will with Darrell Mack in the backfield to run the ball.
I?ll take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 or more.
2 Star Selection
**UCLA 24 BYU (-6.0) 21 (at Las Vegas Bowl) 05:00 PM Pacific, 22-Dec-07 Ucla?s program might be in disarray with Karl Durrell being dismissed, but the Bruins are better than their 6-6 record would indicate. The Bruins played the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation this season and I?m positive that BYU would be 6-6 or no better than 7-5 if they had played UCLA?s schedule. The Bruins? 27-17 win over BYU in the Rose Bowl in September was actually a bad game for UCLA, who was out-gained 3.7 yards per play to 5.6 yppl by the Cougars that day. I?m sure BYU wants their revenge but they are unlikely to dominate the yardage as they did in that first meeting.
BYU?s offense averaged 5.9 yppl this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl but that unit is at a disadvantage against a very good UCLA defense that yielded just 4.7 yppl against a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team (after adjusting for playing Oregon without Dennis Dixon). BYU?s defense is almost as good, allowing 4.6 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl, and the Bruins? offense was 0.2 yppl worse than average for the season. However, starting quarterback Ben Olson will be back behind center and his passing numbers (5.8 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.2 yppp to an average quarterback) are significantly better than the team?s passing rating of -0.3 yppp. The Bruins? rushing attack has been 0.3 yards per rushing play worse than average (3.8 yprp against teams that would allow 4.1 yprp to an average team) in 4 games since leading rusher Kahlil Bell (795 yards at 5.6 ypr in just over 7 games) was injured early in UCLA?s 8th game against Washington State. UCLA?s offense is just average without Bell and with Olson at quarterback, so they?re not going to have an easy time moving the ball. Thankfully, UCLA?s brilliant special teams and their defensive advantage over BYU?s offense will lead to better field position for the offense to work with.
My math model does call for BYU to have more total yards in this game but UCLA?s special teams advantage is significant and my math favors the Bruins by 2 points in this game. While my math model is very complicated, even a simple math approach shows that this line is too high. BYU played a schedule that was 0.6 points worse than average and they won by an average of 12.4 points (so they would be +11.8 points against an average schedule). UCLA only out-scored their opponents by 0.1 points but the Bruins played a schedule that was 8.2 points tougher than average, so they are +8.3 points based purely on points. The difference in adjusted point differential is BYU by 3.6 points, but UCLA?s offense is better with Ben Olson at quarterback, even with RB Bell out. UCLA also had 2 fumbles returned for TD?s against them, which is random, so that?s 14 points random points (1.2 per game) that should be factored out of the adjusted points analysis, which leaves us with BYU by 2.4 points without factoring in the return of Olson for the Bruins. Even if the line should be BYU by 3 points then getting 6 points with UCLA is a 58.8% play.
The Bruins are reportedly eager to atone for their bad season and there is no doubt that they have better overall talent than BYU does. UCLA just had problems staying consistently motivated under Dorrell, as they only seemed to play well after a loss or when challenged by a good team. That motivation exists in this game, as the Bruins are off a season ending loss (but cover) against USC and they?re an underdog. The senior class at UCLA is 14-3 ATS in games after a loss and they?ve covered 10 straight games as an underdog (5-0 ATS this year). It is clear that UCLA is not getting enough credit for playing a Pac-10 schedule. Pac-10 teams are 181-124-3 ATS (59.3%) since 1980 as an underdog against non-conference opponents, including 77-34-2 ATS as underdogs of less than 7 points against teams that are .500 or better straight up entering the game. Pac 10 teams are also 32-17 ATS as underdogs or picks in bowl games, including 24-8 ATS against teams entering the bowl off a win in their regular season finale. UCLA certainly has the talent to play with any team (as their 10-0 dog record suggests) and they?d love to play well for interim coach and defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker, who is the player?s choice to be the next head coach.
I?ll take UCLA in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7 or more.
2 Star Selection
**Clemson (-1.5) 26 Auburn 16 (at Chick-fil-A Bowl at Atlanta) 04:30 PM Pacific, 31-Dec-07 Both of these teams are strong defensively, but Clemson has the better offense, isn?t as likely to turn the ball over and has better special teams. Clemson has averaged 5.7 yards per play this season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Tigers are just average offensively after adjusting for the loss of big play receiver Jacoby Ford, who missed the final 4 regular season games and is out for this game. Ford averaged 18.2 yards on his 17 receptions and the Tigers have nobody to replace those yards with the other top receivers combining to average only 11.8 yards per catch. Ford also ran for 172 yards on just 14 rushing plays and Clemson?s rushing attack goes from 0.4 yards per rushing play better than average to 0.2 yprp better than average if you take Ford?s numbers out. Clemson will have trouble moving the ball against a very good Auburn defense that has yielded just 4.6 yppl in 11 games against Division 1A opponents who would average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team.
Auburn?s offense doesn?t figure to do much either, as the Tigers were held to 4.8 yppl or lower in 8 of their 11 games against 1A opposition and averaged only 4.8 yppl overall in those games (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team). Clemson?s defense yielded only 4.5 yppl in their 11 division 1A games to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, so they have a 1.2 yppl advantage over Auburn?s offense. Unfortunately, starting linebackers Nick Watkins (leading tackler) and Tramaine Billie (3rd leading tackler) are likely to miss this game due to bad academic standing, which affects the defense a bit. Neither player made a lot of impact defensive plays, as they combined for just 2 sacks and 5 other tackles for loss, so I don?t expect a major drop in performance from the Tigers? defense - but I?ll dock the Tigers 0.2 yppl for their loss.
With Watkins and Billie out for Clemson, Auburn has a slight edge from the line of scrimmage, but Clemson quarterback Cullen Harper has thrown just 6 interceptions on 400 passes (1.5%) while Auburn?s Brandon Cox has thrown 12 picks on only 277 passes (4.3%). In a defensive battle turnovers will probably make the difference and Clemson is likely to win that battle while also having a slight edge in special teams. Overall my math model favors Clemson by 2 points in this game and Clemson applies to a 37-8-1 ATS bowl situation at -3 points or less while also applying to a 70-28-2 ATS bowl games statistical match-up indicator (also if they are -3 or less).
I?ll take Clemson in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points (-112 odds or better) or less. I?ll also lean with the Under at 45 points or higher.
2 Star Selection
**Wisconsin 31 Tennessee (-3.0) 27 (at Outback Bowl at Tampa) 08:00 AM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 These two teams are very similar, as both teams are good offensively, mediocre on defense and have very good special teams. Tennessee averaged 5.7 yards per play for the season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yppl to an average team), but Erik Ainge improved a bit once the broken pinky on this throwing hand was completely healthy after the week 5 bye. That attack will be going up against a mediocre Wisconsin defense that allowed 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. I actually rate the Badgers as 0.2 yppl worse than average after losing starting CB Allen Lanford and DT Jason Chapman late in the season. But, star LB Elijah Hodge should be at full strength after missing most of the last two games with minor injuries.
Wisconsin?s offense should also move the ball well. The Badgers averaged 5.8 yppl in the regular season against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, but Wisconsin was slightly worse (by 0.1 yppl) in the final 6 games without big play receiver Luke Swan, who will also miss this game. The loss of running back P.J. Hill will have no impact at all since Hill?s compensated yards per rush (5.0 ypr against teams that would allow 4.9 ypr to an average back) is the same as that of Zach Brown (4.9 ypr against teams that would allow 4.8 ypr), who took over for Hill the final 3 games of the regular season. Lance Smith-Williams and his 6.2 ypr is also available, so the Badgers could be even better running the ball without Hill. Tennessee?s defense was only 0.2 yppl better than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl), so the Badgers have an advantage when they have the ball.
Neither quarterback is interception prone, having thrown 10 picks each, and my math model favors Tennessee by 3 points in this game - which is what the line is. The reason for the play on Wisconsin is a 16-0 ATS subset of a 37-8-1 ATS bowl situation and a 32-7 ATS bowl angle that both favor Wisconsin. The Badgers played below expectations this season (4-7 ATS) but they were still good enough to make it to one of the New Year?s Bowl games. Good teams that under-performed in the regular season tend to improve during the month-plus of bowl preparation, as teams playing in major bowl games (the 5 BCS Bowls plus the other New Year?s Day Bowls ? the Outback, Cotton, Citrus, and Gator) are 18-8 ATS as underdogs if they had a losing pointspread record in the regular season when facing a team that has a winning pointspread mark (12-4 ATS against teams that were 3 games or more above .500 ATS, as the Vols were).
I?ll play this game on the basis of the strong technical indicators and I?ll take Wisconsin in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points (-115 odds or less) or more.
2 Star Selection
**Hawaii 32 Georgia (-8.5) 31 (at Sugar Bowl) 05:30 PM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 Unbeaten Hawaii had some close calls against a few bad teams, but the Warriors raised their level of play against the good teams that they faced and they have a pretty good shot at an outright upset in this game. Hawaii played their toughest 4 opponents in their final 4 games of the year, facing Bowl teams Fresno State, Nevada, Boise State and Pac-10 rep Washington, who would have been a bowl team if they didn?t face the toughest schedule in the nation. In those 4 games the Warriors averaged 7.5 yards per play while allowing only 5.3 yppl. Those are very impressive numbers considering that those 4 opponents would combine to average 5.9 yppl and allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. For the season Hawaii?s potent attack was 1.5 yppl better than average (7.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack), but they were 2.2 yppl better than average in those final 4 games when challenged by decent teams. Hawaii has the type of offense that can move the ball even on good defensive teams, so they are relatively better when facing good defenses than they are against bad defensive teams since the level of opposing defense doesn?t have as much impact on Hawaii?s attack. That has certainly been the case with Colt Brennan, who was 1.7 yards per pass play better than average for the season (8.3 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp) but was 2.1 yppp better than average against the 6 mediocre or better than average pass defenses he faced (8.1 yppp against Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Fresno, Boise and Washington ? who would combine to allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback). Georgia has a very good pass defense that yielded just 5.5 yppp in 11 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average team. Colt Brennan is not fazed by good defensive teams, as he threw for nearly 500 yards and averaged 8.8 yppp against Boise State ? the best pass defense he faced this season. Boise, at 0.5 yppp better than average defending the pass, is not quite as good as Georgia?s pass defense (the Bulldogs are 0.9 yppp better than average), but Brennan faced some very good pass defenses last season and thrived. Brennan threw for 9.9 yppp against the 2006 unbeaten Boise State team that was 0.8 yppp better than average against the pass and he averaged 8.6 yppp combined last season in games against the good pass defenses of Alabama, Boise State, Oregon State and Arizona State. Those teams would have combined to allow 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback, which is pretty close to how good Georgia?s defense is this year. That included Brennan?s 542 yards at 11.8 yppp in the bowl game against an Arizona State defense that was 0.6 yppp better than average. My math model projects 6.9 yppp for Brennan in this game but that number would be 7.4 yppp based on his habit of playing relatively better against better defensive teams. Hawaii has scored 28 points or more in 25 consecutive games and the Warriors are likely to top 30 points in this game.
What is often overlooked is how good Hawaii?s defense has been this season. The Warriors didn?t have to flex their defensive muscle too often, as they played a lot of bad offensive teams, but that defense played great when challenged by good offensive teams in their final 3 games. The only better than average offensive teams that Hawaii faced were Nevada, Boise State and Washington, who would combine to average 6.0 yards per play against an average defensive team. The Warriors finished the season against those 3 good offensive teams and held them to a combined 5.2 yppl. For the season Hawaii yielded 5.0 yppl in 10 games against Division 1A opposition that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Georgia?s offense was only 0.6 yppl better than average in their 11 games against D-1A competition with Matt Stafford in the game (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl), so the Bulldogs only have a 0.3 yppl advantage over Hawaii?s defense and I actually think the Warriors? stop unit is just as good as Georgia?s offense when they are forced to play at fully intensity ? as they will be in this game.
My math model favors Georgia by only 5 points even with a 2.2 points edge for projected turnovers and a 3.9 points advantage for the Bulldogs in special teams and Hawaii is 50/50 to win this game straight up if they play this game at the level they?ve played against other good teams that they?ve faced. This game is similar to the situation that unbeaten WAC champion Boise State was in last season as a 7 point underdog to Oklahoma (a 43-42 winner). While Hawaii played a pretty easy schedule they did play their best against the best teams they faced and they have the confidence that they can beat anyone. Teams with 1 loss or fewer are 22-6 ATS in bowl games as underdogs of 7 points or more (6- 0 ATS the last 4 years), so getting a touchdown or more with a team that is not used to losing has been a pretty good bet. I realize that Georgia played their best ball down the stretch, but they aren?t likely to continue to play at such a high level after having more than a month off. In fact, teams that finished the regular season by covering 3 or more consecutive games are just 40% ATS in bowl games since 1980 (51-76-2 ATS) when not facing a team also on a 3 game spread win streak.
I?ll take Hawaii in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 or more.
Best Bet UNDER
**UNDER - Central Florida (-3.0) 27 Mississippi St. 24 (at Liberty Bowl - Memphis) 01:30 PM Pacific, 29-Dec-07 The side on this game is tough to pick as there are situations favoring both sides and my math model favors UCF by 3 points, which is what the line is. However, the Under looks like a good play. Central Florida averaged 6.0 yards per play and 38.4 points in the regular season but their offense isn?t really that much better than average since they accumulated those numbers against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl and 35.6 points to an average team. Mississippi State?s defense yielded only 5.1 yppl in 11 games against Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit. Mississippi State?s defense actually has a pretty significant advantage in this game and the Golden Knights built up their offensive numbers against bad defensive teams while struggling against mediocre or good stop units. UCF averaged only 4.4 yppl in 4 games against average or better defensive teams (NC State, Texas, South Florida, and Southern Miss), who would combine to allow 5.0 yppl to an average team.
The defense has the advantage when Miss State has the ball too, as the Bulldogs have averaged only 4.5 yppl in their last 6 games with freshman Wesley Carroll at quarterback - against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team. Those numbers are actually better than Miss State?s -0.7 yppl full season rating, as they were even worse offensively before Carroll took over. Central Florida has a solid defense that yielded just 5.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, so Miss State will have trouble moving the ball as well.
With neither team expected to move the ball at a better than average rate it is not likely that this game is higher scoring than the national average of 54.4 total points. Central Florida?s special teams do add offense as they are great in returns and bad in coverage, but my math model predicts just 52 ? points after factoring in special teams. If the total should be 52 ? points then there is a 61.5% chance of going Under the current total of 58 ? points (and 60.4% chance of going Under 58 points).
I?ll pass on the side, but I?ll go UNDER 58 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet and consider the Under a Strong Opinion from 56 to 57 ? points.
Strong Opinion
Boise St. (-10.5) 41 East Carolina 25 (at Hawaii Bowl) 05:00 PM Pacific, 23-Dec-07 Boise State lost to the only two better than average teams that they played this year, dropping road games to Washington and Hawaii, but the Broncos won their other 9 games against Division 1A teams by an average score of 47-19 while winning 8 of those 9 games by double-digit margins. East Carolina may be 7-5, but don?t mistake the Pirates for a better than average team. East Carolina out-scored their opponents by an average of 0.4 points per game while playing a schedule that was 4.5 points worse than average. The Pirates do have one quality win, a 52-38 home win over CUSA champ Central Florida, but it took a +5 in turnover margin to win that game.
The Pirates are decent offensively, averaging 5.7 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack, and that unit should move the ball at a decent rate against a Boise State defense that was 0.1 yppl better than average in 11 games against Division 1A opponents (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team). It?s the other side of the ball where the Pirates have their problems and where they?ll be overmatched in this game. East Carolina allowed 5.7 yppl this season to a collection of teams that would combine to average only 5.2 yppl against an average stop unit. That defense doesn?t have much of a chance to stop a balanced Boise State attack that averaged 6.3 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. Boise State feasted on worse than average defensive teams and should score a good number of points in this game.
Enhancing Boise?s overall advantage from the line of scrimmage in this game is their great special teams, which once against ranks among the best in the nation and consistently supplies the Broncos with good field position while pinning their opponents deep in their end of the field. A team that out-gains their opponents 6.3 yppl to 5.0 yppl, as Boise did in their 11 games against 1A competition would normally out-score their opponents by about 12 points per game, but Boise State out-scored their 11 Division 1A opponents by 20.3 points per game in part because of their incredible special teams. East Carolina has mediocre special teams and that should be the difference between a competitive game and a potential blowout.
My math model favors Boise State by 17 points in this game but I?ll resist making Boise State a Best Bet because East Carolina is 15-4 ATS as an underdog under coach Skip Holtz (although 0-1 as a Bowl underdog). My math model also predicts a total of 65.3 points and the Under looks like a decent play too. I did my profile analysis on this game, which basically projects scores based on how well each team has played against teams with similar statistical characteristics (using regression analysis on each facet of the opponent?s stats ? run offense, pass defense, etc). The profile analysis of Boise State suggests that they?d total 66 points against a team with East Carolina?s level of offense and defense while the profile analysis on ECU projects a total of 63 total points against a team with Boise State?s statistical profile. Either way, the games is likely to go under the 70 point total.
I?ll consider Boise State a Strong Opinion at -11 points or less and I?ll lean with the Under at 69 points or higher.
Strong Opinion
Florida (-10.0) 37 Michigan 22 (at Capital One Bowl - Orlando) 10:00 AM Pacific, 01-Jan-08 Florida is the best team in the nation despite their 3 losses and the Gators spread attack should be no match for a Michigan team that was torched by the similar spread offenses of Appalachian State and Oregon early in the season. Florida?s offense is easily the best in the nation, as the Gators averaged 210 yards on the ground at 5.8 yards per rushing play while Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow averaged a ridiculous 9.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Overall, Florida averaged a stunning 7.3 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) while averaging 5.5 yppl or more against every team they faced. Michigan?s defensive numbers are good for the season, as the Wolverines yielded 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit. However, spread offenses with good running quarterbacks (i.e. Appalachian State and Oregon) gave the Wolverines trouble as Appalachian averaged 5.9 yppl and scored 34 points while Oregon racked up 610 total yards at 8.1 yppl and had 32 points at the half before calling off the dogs in a 39-7 victory at Ann Arbor. I?m sure Michigan will try to devise ways to defend the spread better than they did in those two games, but my math model projects 6.9 yppl and 38 points for Florida in this game if Michigan plays as well defensively as they did overall this season.
Michigan?s offense just isn?t good enough to keep up, as the Wolverines were 0.3 yppl worse than average for the season (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team). Michigan was 0.1 yppl worse than average with running back Mike Hart, quarterback Chad Henne, and WR Mario Manningham all playing, but that?s still not good enough. Running against Florida is not easy (the Gators allowed just 3.8 yprp to teams that would average 4.9 yprp aginst an average team), but Henne and Manningham should have pretty good success against a sub-par Gators? pass defense that allowed 6.2 yppp this season to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average defensive team. Michigan will probably be too conservative to take advantage of the only match-up that may work for them in this game and my math model projects 346 total yards at 5.1 yppl if they throw the ball a bit more than they run it instead of running it 53% of the time as they normally do.
In addition to dominating this game in total yards the Gators also have much better special teams than Michigan does and my math model favors Florida by 17 points. I?d like to play Florida here but the Gators apply to a negative 36-67-1 ATS Bowl angle that will keep me off of this game as a Best Bet. I?ll consider Florida a Strong Opinion at -10 points or less and I?ll lean with the Gators if the line goes higher than 10 points.
Other Games
Florida Atl. (-2.5) 36 Memphis 31 (at New Orleans Bowl) 05:00 PM Pacific, 21-Dec-07 Despite being favored, Florida Atlantic isn?t getting enough respect in this game because they reside in the lowly Sun Belt Conference. However, Conference USA, from which Memphis hails, was just as bad as the Sun Belt this season and Memphis is a horrible team whose best win came against a Southern Miss team that is about 5 points worse than an average Division 1A team. Memphis? 7 wins have come against teams that are on average 17 ? points worse than an average team. Florida Atlantic got to this bowl game by beating a good Troy State team that is a couple of points better than an average Division 1A team and the Owls played a schedule that was 9 points tougher than what Memphis played (and each team was 7-5). The Owls are led by sophomore star quarterback Rusty Smith, who averaged an impressive 7.1 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Smith also threw just 8 interceptions on 447 passes (1.8%). Overall, Florida Atlantic is only 0.1 yards per play worse than an average Division 1A team on the offensive side of the ball with Smith in the game (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team). That unit will have no trouble scoring against a horrible Memphis defense that gave up 6.2 yppl this season to a schedule of bad offensive teams that would combine to average only 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Memphis rates the same as Florida Atlantic on the offense side of the ball, as the Tigers have averaged 5.9 yppl with Martin Hankins behind center ? against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. Hankins, however, is more turnover prone than his counterpart, as he?s thrown picks on 3.1% of his passes this season. The difference in this game is defense ? Memphis has a horrible defense and Florida Atlantic has a decent defense. The Owls have yielded a respectable 5.6 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team, so they are 1.3 yppl better than the Tigers? stop unit.
My math model projects Florida Atlantic to out-gain Memphis 504 yards to 402 yards in this game while also having an advantage in predicted turnovers. The Owls do have horrible special teams, but their special teams are only 1.6 points worse than the Tigers poor special teams units. Overall the math model favors Florida Atlantic by 10 points and I?d love to play the Owls in this game. Unfortunately, Florida Atlantic applies to a negative 7-34 ATS bowl situation and a 1-18 ATS bowl situation and those angles will keep me from playing the Owls.
ROBERT FARINGO
4.5-Unit Play. Take #543 Central Michigan (-3) over Wisconsin-Milwaukee (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 19)
Here we have two teams headed in opposite directions, with Central Michigan winning four straight ? against solid mid-major competition ? while UW-M has dropped six straight. Mix in the fact that UW-M just suspended its leading scorer and rebounder and I think there?s some bad karma floating around this undermanned team. The Panthers have dropped six straight ATS overall and at home.
3-Unit Play. Take #555 Arizona (-3.5) over UNLV (10 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 19)
I think we?re getting exceptional value here on a Wildcats team that?s already tangled with strong national programs like Kansas, Texas A&M, Illinois, and Virginia. UNLV, on the other hand, has beaten a bunch of third-tier schools, losing by 20 to its only highly regarded opponent (Louisville) this season. Are we walking into another classic Arizona trap? Maybe. But I just don?t think this Rebels team is very good and I think this line is around four- or five-points light.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #537 Bradley (+10) over Butler (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 19)
Bradley has lost its last eight trips to Hinkle, and I think they will lose tonight, but I don?t see this team getting run out of the gym against a Butler team that?s still without Pete Campbell. The dog is 4-2 ATS in this series and Bradley is 4-2 ATS against Butler.
2-Unit Play. Take #540 South Carolina (-3.5) over Baylor (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 19)
Love Baylor this year. Been cashing in from jump with the Bears and should do well with them in Big 12 play. But this game is all Gamecocks. South Carolina has played six games against Top 90 teams (compared to just three for Baylor) and they?ve gone 4-2 ATS in those games. This is Baylor?s first true road game of the season and they are just 3-8 ATS away after playing three straight home games.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #570 Eastern Kentucky (-5) over Tennessee-Martin (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 19)
In general, home teams in the OVC have had an early edge. Also, I think UT-M is still without Gerald Robinson.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #527 UC-Santa Barbara (-4.5) over Ball State (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 19)
We could have an Iona situation here with a broken down Ball State team. I could be foolish for ignoring the many things telling me "no" here, but I also laid off the Ohio State game last night because of that and missed what should have been my GOTW. Go Gauchos.
That's it for today. Good luck.
4.5-Unit Play. Take #543 Central Michigan (-3) over Wisconsin-Milwaukee (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 19)
Here we have two teams headed in opposite directions, with Central Michigan winning four straight ? against solid mid-major competition ? while UW-M has dropped six straight. Mix in the fact that UW-M just suspended its leading scorer and rebounder and I think there?s some bad karma floating around this undermanned team. The Panthers have dropped six straight ATS overall and at home.
3-Unit Play. Take #555 Arizona (-3.5) over UNLV (10 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 19)
I think we?re getting exceptional value here on a Wildcats team that?s already tangled with strong national programs like Kansas, Texas A&M, Illinois, and Virginia. UNLV, on the other hand, has beaten a bunch of third-tier schools, losing by 20 to its only highly regarded opponent (Louisville) this season. Are we walking into another classic Arizona trap? Maybe. But I just don?t think this Rebels team is very good and I think this line is around four- or five-points light.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #537 Bradley (+10) over Butler (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 19)
Bradley has lost its last eight trips to Hinkle, and I think they will lose tonight, but I don?t see this team getting run out of the gym against a Butler team that?s still without Pete Campbell. The dog is 4-2 ATS in this series and Bradley is 4-2 ATS against Butler.
2-Unit Play. Take #540 South Carolina (-3.5) over Baylor (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 19)
Love Baylor this year. Been cashing in from jump with the Bears and should do well with them in Big 12 play. But this game is all Gamecocks. South Carolina has played six games against Top 90 teams (compared to just three for Baylor) and they?ve gone 4-2 ATS in those games. This is Baylor?s first true road game of the season and they are just 3-8 ATS away after playing three straight home games.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #570 Eastern Kentucky (-5) over Tennessee-Martin (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 19)
In general, home teams in the OVC have had an early edge. Also, I think UT-M is still without Gerald Robinson.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #527 UC-Santa Barbara (-4.5) over Ball State (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 19)
We could have an Iona situation here with a broken down Ball State team. I could be foolish for ignoring the many things telling me "no" here, but I also laid off the Ohio State game last night because of that and missed what should have been my GOTW. Go Gauchos.
That's it for today. Good luck.
MATT RIVERS SAYS ITS HIS BIGGEST GAME OF THE NBA SEASON
this info is 1000000% WRONG he doesnt say its his biggest game anywhere
matter of fact he has a small card tonight
and this is his FREE PLAY
150,000♦ NBA 3-PACK
50,000♦ Cleveland-New York
50,000♦ Detroit-Boston
50,000♦ Miami-Atlanta
this info is 1000000% WRONG he doesnt say its his biggest game anywhere
matter of fact he has a small card tonight
and this is his FREE PLAY
150,000♦ NBA 3-PACK
50,000♦ Cleveland-New York
50,000♦ Detroit-Boston
50,000♦ Miami-Atlanta
7:05p Alex Smartso
Washington Wizards
-4.5 / 2 units
-- College Basketball --
7:30p Alex Smartso
Baylor
+3.0 / 2 units
-- National Basketball Association --
9:35p Alex Smartso
Dallas Mavericks
-3.0 / 2 units
Washington Wizards
-4.5 / 2 units
-- College Basketball --
7:30p Alex Smartso
Baylor
+3.0 / 2 units
-- National Basketball Association --
9:35p Alex Smartso
Dallas Mavericks
-3.0 / 2 units
Doc Picks
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Unit Play. #530 Take Wake Forest -5 over South Florida (7:00 pm ACC Select) The Demon Deacons love playing @ Lawrence Joel Coliseum, as they are a perfect 5-0 on the season. South Florida has a dominating freshman in Dominique Jones, but expect him to struggle to find his points against Big East and ACC opponents. Wake Forest also has revenge on their minds, suffering a setback last year and will return the favor with a double-digit victory on Wednesday.
5 Unit Play. #537 Take Bradley +10 over Butler (7:00 pm) Way too many points to be laying considering how good the Braves have been the last couple of years. Butler is off to another outstanding start this season currently 9-1, but their lone loss came against Wright State. The Braves have played a brutal schedule this season, but have a 2-1 record away from Peoria in true road games. They are 7-3 on the season but their losses have come against Vanderbilt, Chicago, and Michigan State. Bradley is actually come off a victory against Wright State in a game that was played in Dayton, OH. This will be a close and hard fought game that both teams go all out to win, as a victory here will certainly improve their resume. Getting close to double-digits makes this the only side to consider.
4 Unit Play. #542 Take Illinois-Chicago -7 over Toledo (8:00 pm) The Flames get the call on Wednesday, as they have won three straight games and appear to be playing much better basketball of late. During this winning streak they have beaten three solid teams in Green Bay, Milwaukee, DePaul, and have already beaten Bradley to open the season. Toledo is 2-8 on the season and has yet to record a victory on the road. Their last three losses have come over tonight?s posted number and this will be a double-digit winner for the Flames.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Unit Play. #530 Take Wake Forest -5 over South Florida (7:00 pm ACC Select) The Demon Deacons love playing @ Lawrence Joel Coliseum, as they are a perfect 5-0 on the season. South Florida has a dominating freshman in Dominique Jones, but expect him to struggle to find his points against Big East and ACC opponents. Wake Forest also has revenge on their minds, suffering a setback last year and will return the favor with a double-digit victory on Wednesday.
5 Unit Play. #537 Take Bradley +10 over Butler (7:00 pm) Way too many points to be laying considering how good the Braves have been the last couple of years. Butler is off to another outstanding start this season currently 9-1, but their lone loss came against Wright State. The Braves have played a brutal schedule this season, but have a 2-1 record away from Peoria in true road games. They are 7-3 on the season but their losses have come against Vanderbilt, Chicago, and Michigan State. Bradley is actually come off a victory against Wright State in a game that was played in Dayton, OH. This will be a close and hard fought game that both teams go all out to win, as a victory here will certainly improve their resume. Getting close to double-digits makes this the only side to consider.
4 Unit Play. #542 Take Illinois-Chicago -7 over Toledo (8:00 pm) The Flames get the call on Wednesday, as they have won three straight games and appear to be playing much better basketball of late. During this winning streak they have beaten three solid teams in Green Bay, Milwaukee, DePaul, and have already beaten Bradley to open the season. Toledo is 2-8 on the season and has yet to record a victory on the road. Their last three losses have come over tonight?s posted number and this will be a double-digit winner for the Flames.