Lang
Lang
Brandon Lang
25 Dime Packers - I know everyone keeps talking about playoff experience, and how much it will make a difference, but you know, since the start of the season I?ve been hearing about Green Bay?s experience ? or lack thereof ? and how it would be its Achilles? heel. But three key ingredients have brought this team this far: 1. Brett Favre. 2. Ryan Grant. 3. Defense.
That?s all the experience I need in this game, as I don?t care about Seattle being in the postseason five consecutive seasons and the Packers having been absent from the playoffs since the 2004 season. What matters is the here and now, and the fact remains that quarterback Brett Favre has appeared in 20 playoff games, and will guide this young squad today with no problem.
Remember, this game is on the Frozen Tundra, where the Packers are 14-2 all time in the playoffs, while Seattle?s mark away from home is a bleak 1-7. Need more experience ? how about the fact Favre ranks second in postseason history with 34 touchdowns.
As for Grant, he proved critics wrong by showing everyone the Packers do indeed have a rushing game this season, and between the 40s, can be extremely dangerous in taking the pressure off of Favre?s shoulders. In its last game, Green Bay tallied 217 yards on the ground and a modest 177 via air mail, the first time the team gained more rushing yards than passing yards all season. Grant emerged midway through the season and has had five 100-yard games and collected 929 yards since Week 8.
As for the defense, this team has held 10 opponents to 17 points or less, including three of its last four. At home this team is giving up just 14.3 points per game, and I highly doubt we?ll see a letdown with what?s at stake here. Remember, Washington?s defense stepped up last week to stymie Seattle ? it wasn?t the offense that got the ?Hawks all of those 35 points. And that was in Seattle. Let?s lay the chalk in this one, Green Bay rolls here.
5 Dime Jags Over - I?m not going to waste your time singing the praises of the Patriots? record-setting, fast-break offense. We all know that Brady, Moss and company put up points about as frequently as Pac-Man Jones runs afoul of the law (New England scored 589 points this year, topping the 30-point barrier in 12 of its 16 contests.) So we know the Patriots are going find the end zone multiple times in this game.
What you probably don?t realize is how prolific the Jaguars? offense has been. Jacksonville has scored at least 24 points in 11 consecutive games, averaging 30.5 points during that stretch. And what do you know, the over is 10-0-1 in those 11 games, with the last seven topping the posted price. The over is also 10-1 in Jacksonville?s last 11 road games, 8-0 in its last eight as a road underdog, 13-3-1 in its last 17 against the AFC, and 4-1 in its last five playoff games.
Meanwhile, for the Patriots, the over is on runs of 16-6 overall, 8-3 at home, 13-5 as a favorite, and 10-3 as a double-digit favorite.
As for this specific total, it is a big one, no question about it. However, eight of Jacksonville?s 17 games have hit at least 50 combined points, including six of the last seven overall and four in a row on the road. Also, New England?s games have reached the 50-point plateau 10 times this year, including that 38-35 season-ending shootout against the Giants on the road two weeks ago.
With no indications of bad weather on the horizon, this has all the makings of what I like to call a Brothel Game: lots of back-and-forth action with little defense and lots of scoring.
5 Dime Texas ? Much like the football team at Missouri, the Tigers? basketball team exudes confidence when it steps on the floor. And that?s fine against most teams, but this Texas team has played a much tougher schedule, and certainly has a much more athletic roster than Mizzou. The Longhorns have completely owned Missouri this team, winning and covering nine straight meetings. And the fact Missouri is 10-0 at home doesn?t scare me, since four of its guests have garnered a line. And when it?s hit the road, the Tigers are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS. That tells me that when facing bigger tests, they?re not all that formidable. Texas is 4-1 SU and ATS on the highway, so look at this as a bargain in this Big 12 clash, as roll with the same Longhorns who won by 13 on this court last season.
5 Dime UNLV ? Lon ******?s troops are playing exceptionally well right now, and with a date with BYU approaching, the Rebels can?t afford to let up ? especially against a sloppy team like Air Force. ****** has been benefiting from experienced players this season, and has figured out a way to get his Rebels to compete with the likes of Arizona and Louisville ? despite a pair of tough-luck losses against both. Wink Adams has been the Rebels' sparkplug this season, averaging 14.9 points per game, and though he?s shown a tendency to get trigger happy from the perimeter, his consistency against teams that tend to be lax on defense and careless with the basketball has helped UNLV in its 12-3 run into conference play. I know Air Force has traditionally been a tough place to play for the Rebels, but these are entirely different basketball teams this season. Play the road-warrior Rebels in this one.
5 Dime Washington State ? The Cougars are a special breed this year, and it?s not because of the stifling defense we?ve seen the first two months of the season. Heck, that?s something we?ve come to expect from Wazzou. No, this team is no longer about defense any longer, as it?s come full circle with a balanced offense that is putting up about 70 points a game. Sure, this is the toughest test of the season for the 14-0 Cougars, but nine of those wins have come on the road, where they?ve covered five of seven lined games. And though the Bruins have swept the season series the past two seasons, the road team is 4-0 ATS the last two years. The fact there are two top five defenses playing in this one, and Washington State has ability to match UCLA basket-for-basket, this one could be low scoring and could come down right to the end.