Drew Gordon
1. 400,000♦ Louisiana State
2. 50,000♦ Temple
3. 50,000♦ La Salle
4. 50,000♦ Pistons
1. Louisiana State- Love the way the Tigers are playing of late (3-0 SUATS L3 games), and it appears as though Vegas still isn't convinced, giving us a bargain price against road-weary Alabama team in this one!
Answer me this: What has Alabama done on the SEC trail this season except lose?! Guys, the Tide are 0-7 SU and 3-4 ATS in conference road games, and I can give you plenty of reasons why. Let's start with their lack of effort on both ends of the floor (scoring 69 ppg on 43%, while allowing 74 ppg on 46%). Couple that with their lack of good point guard, thanks to the injury to senior Ron Steele, and its no surprise they don't do well in hostile SEC territory. More of the same tonight against a Tigers team that's found its chemistry and is playing like it!
Speaking of chemistry, the Tigers have found a nice inside/out attack between G Marcus Thornton (36 points, 5 for 7 3-pointers, 10 rebounds against Georgia) and big men Anthony Randolph and Chris Johnson. Thornton is coming off one of his best games of the season, and should continue to see success against a weak Alabama perimeter defense.
Biggest issue for Alabama will be scoring points against an LSU defense that's locking down opponents in Baton Rouge, allowing 60 ppg on 39% shooting there this season! The Tide rely on their frontcourt, and especially Richard Hendrix to get the job done, but that's easier said than done against the twin towers down-low for the Wolverines tonight... This is a bad match up all around for the 'Bama.
Bottom line, its hard to imagine a 12-16 team "rolling," but the fact of the matter is the Tigers are playing excellent basketball, and have the match ups necessary to dominate a road-weary Tide team in this one. Alabama has been garbage on the SEC trail this season, and facing a red-hot Tigers team won't do much to help their winless conference road record! LSU protects their house and grabs the cash in this one!
Take Louisiana State over Alabama as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Temple- While you'd expect Duquesne to come out firing tonight, in hopes of snapping their ugly 4-game losing streak, the likely absence of F Shawn James changes everything. His shoulder injury significantly effects the Dukes on both ends of the court, but especially on defense, where the shot-blocking monster has swatted 106 shots and changed countless more.
Herein lies the problem for Duquesne, because with James in the lineup, the frontcourt-heavy Owls cannot consistently attack the basket. However with James out, the paint is wide open, and you better believe forwards Christmas, Tyndale, and Allen will attack, attack, and attack some more. Remember guys, Temple averages 78 ppg on 48% shooting this season at home, while over their last 5 games the "supposedly" strong Dukes offense is dropping in just 66 ppg on 38% shooting!
We all remember the Duquesne team that was blowing away the competition with their high-powered offense, and solid interior defense achored by James, but that team is long gone. Some teams peak at the right time, but in this case, I believe the Dukes may have peaked too early, and the injury to Shawn James dooms any chances of them regrouping.
Finally, on a side note, this will be the Owls senior night, and like all senior nights across the country, the crowd will be raucous and the players will be motivated to win in front of them. I know it may seem like a lesser factor, but the fact of the matter is all signs point to another tough loss for the Dukes, especially when you consider Temple's last two wins - Crushing Charlotte at home, and an outright upset at St. Joseph's... The signs of a team on the upswing.
Bottom line, Temple takes full advantage of the absence of C Shawn James, as Christmas and company are allowed to roam free all night long. The Dukes may have every intention of ending their losing streak, but based on the injury to James and their recent play, there's little reason to believe they'll get it done at Temple tonight.
Take Temple comfortably over Duquesne in this A-10 match up.
3. La Salle- Seriously, do the guys in Vegas not watch La Salle games? We know they do, but in that case, what are they doing making the country's best college road bet a double-digit underdog in this one?! Guys, La Salle is 11-0-1 ATS this season on the highway, not only that, but they're also 5-1 SU and 4-1 ATS over their last 6 games overall!
While I'm not saying the Explorers win outright here, they're more than capable of hanging with a Massachusetts team that's not only just 4-7-1 ATS at home this season, but also doesn't have the defense to cover a bloated number in this one. The Minutemen are better at home, but their defense still allows 73 ppg on 41% shooting in Amherst... Not nearly good enough to stop an Explorers offense averaging 82 ppg on 47% shooting over their last 5 games!
Looking over the match ups, there's no significant edge one way or the other, which again only strengthens my argument for La Salle. Both teams are led by their backcourt, and while Gary Forbes may be the best player on the court, the Explorers Darnell Harris is not far behind, averaging 16 ppg and shooting 49% from beyond the arc! Slight edge to Minutemen in the frontcourt, but not enough to justify this spread.
Finally, as good as the Explorers are on the road, its important to note the Minutemen are just 2-6-1 ATS over their last 9 home games! Throw in the fact that La Salle is coming off outright road wins at Duquesne and at Fordham, and you've got all the makings of a relatively close contest here. UMASS most likely wins, but not by nearly as much as Vegas want you to believe!
Take La Salle plus the points over Massachusetts in this A-10 match up.
4. Pistons- While the Celtics "appear" to be back on track, the Pistons never lost track, and come into this game winners of 5 of their last 6 games (4-2 ATS), and looking for more. I say "appear," because Boston's numbers ATS haven't improved, losing 6 of their last 8 ATS, including failing to cover in three straight home games.
Several reasons for the Celtics return to Earth, including the injury to Kevin Garnett, which definitely slowed this Boston team down. He's back and healthy, but the Celtics lost a lot of that confidence they had going into the All-Star Break, and appear a hell of a lot more vulnerable right now. Boston just hasn't been able to close out their opposition, and if you don't believe me: Pop in the tape of either Cleveland, Charlotte, or Atlanta and you'll see for yourself!
Looking over the numbers, these two teams have almost identical statistics over their last 5 games, with both team averaging about 102 ppg, while allowing 90 ppg on the defensive end over that span. Not that that's 100% concrete proof of the Pistons covering, but its definitely food for thought. Remember the Pistons already beat the Celtics at home once this season, and that was when Boston was rolling. (They had won 9 straight up to December 19th, and won 9 straight after their loss to Detroit). Not the same Boston team tonight, plain and simple.
Finally, let me dispel the fatigue factor in this game, because clearly the Pistons haven't been bothered by getting no rest, having gone 9-4-1 ATS this season in the tail end of back-to-back games! You know damn well the reason they failed to cover at Seattle last night was because they were wholly concentrated on winning tonight's marquee contest, and I expect they play accordingly!
Take the Pistons plus the points over the Celtics in this NBA match up.