Chan
GAME:
Alabama at LSU Mar 5 2008 8:00PM
PREDICTION:
LSU
For my regular clients, this play will come as no surprise. I've backed LSU in each of their last two games and there's no reason to jump ship now.
The Tigers continue to play well for interim coach Butch Pierre. There's no doubt in my mind that these guys want Pierre installed as the full-time bench boss next season. Since he has taken over, the Tigers have gone 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS. There's no question they're playing their best basketball of the season and have an excellent opportunity to notch their fourth consecutive win in their home finale on Wednesday night.
On Sunday, LSU fell behind by as many as 16 points in the first half, but battled back, narrowing the gap to three points at the half before finally pulling away late in the game. That was the type of win that builds an even greater level of confidence than they had been playing with before. Maybe the most impressive thing about the Tigers late season run is the fact that they're doing it without steady offensive production. Over their last five games they're shooting just over 39% as a team. Tonight could be the night they come around in that regard as Alabama has allowed opponents to shoot over 46% on the road this season.
The Crimson Tide are coming off a discouraging loss at Ole Miss over the weekend. They felt they were slighted by a clock malfunction in the game's final seconds and deserved a better fate. For a team that has yet to win on the road in SEC play, that type of loss only added to their frustration. The Tide own just one road win on the season, and that came back in early November against Mercer. They'll get charged up for their home finale against Vandy this coming Saturday but I just don't see them bringing a lot of fire to the table on Wednesday.
Alabama's typical size advantage is muted somewhat by LSU's tandem of Chris Johnson and Anthony Randolph. Those two have been a force ever since Johnson returned from injury. Marcus Thornton leads the Tigers offensive charge and is coming off a 36-point effort on Sunday. Throw in one of the best defensive players in the nation in Garrett Temple, and you wonder why this team wasn't battling at the top of the SEC standings this season. For whatever reason, things just didn't work out in the early going, but right now this is a team that's playing with pride, and playing for it's coach. Those are two factors we like to see when backing a team at this point of the season.
This game also features one of the larger free throw shooting disparity's I've seen in a while. LSU is connecting at a solid 74.1% clip from the charity stripe while Alabama comes in hitting 61.1%. In what should be a close game, that could very well prove to be the difference.
The Tide prevailed by nine the first time these teams hooked up this season, but that game took place back in early February when LSU was mired in a 1-8 ATS slide. Needless to say the Tigers are in much better shape now, and on Senior Night, I expect to see a tremendous effort.