Soccer 2017 August-December

[DZ]

Quick thoughts:

I would be careful with Liverpool. Maribor has only lost one of their last 11 home CL games and this includes some decent teams. I think Liverpool is getting way too much respect here given they have only won 2 of their last 9 away games in Europe.

City Over, could be 5 in this game. Not trusting Monaco right now at all, but like the over. I think Real handles Tottenham rather easy and Dortmund should win easy.

Wednesday could be bitch slapping day. See big wins from Juve, Barca, Bayern and PSG. Especially like Juve after their home league loss.

There are a lot of plays I could make in the Champions League today, but I am going to take a different road and just focus on a couple plays. I simply do not trust some teams that look like obvious plays at home given inconsistent play this year.

Real Madrid -230 - I have to say that I was wrong about the Spurs this year as I expected them to struggle a little more than they have. That being said, I think they will have trouble today. Real is focused on CL and slept walked through their weekend game at Getafe but still pulled out the win. With Spurs grabbing 6 points so far this is an important game for Real to take at home where they rarely lose in CL, especially in the group stages where they have not lost since 2009. Spurs can get away with inconsistent play in the league, but not here and they will miss Alli today. Simply think Real is too much for them. There is a risk of Real giving up a goal or even 2 here, which is why I am laying the lumber in this game versus playing the GL. I only do this a few times a year where I think it is warranted and this game fits the bill for me.

City Ov 3.5 +105 - This is the line I am seeing now. I will not make this bet until later today as I want to see if it drops. Highly unlikely but no real risk on waiting. It is an obvious play today given both teams recent form (City averages 4 a game at home and Napoli 2.4 on the road), but sometimes it is that easy. I see a 3-2 type game here. City does struggle some with Italian teams having won only 1 of their last 8 games, which is why I prefer the over in this game. It should be an all out attacking game.

Real bet will be the larger of the 2 wagers. Have opinions on most others so feel free to ask, but this is what I am playing.

I will be all over Bayern tomorrow at -2.5 and will place the bet immediately after today's games. I do think this line will go to 3 since the total is 4. I am expecting them to destroy Celtic as they are looking revitalized and more like the Bayern of old under Heynckes. Will also be on PSG as they should easily handle Anderlecht.

Thanks for your thoughts here, Bason. I definitely agree with you on those totals... Monaco over 3 looks good, but also Napoli-City over 1.5 1H at a nice plus price looks good (I can get +125). I'm going to roll with you on Real... I did not realize that Tottenham was without Alli and I think that's huge.

 

[DZ]

The more I look at it, the more I like the Shaktar-Feyenoord over.... I think the over 1 in the 1st half is a push at the very worst. Monaco ov 1 (-140) for the 1st half looks good as well...

 

[DZ]

Bason, how do you feel about he Leipzig-Porto over? Looks like both me and Tysix lean that way. Leipzig couldn't keep Frankfurt from scoring at home or Cologne from scoring on the road, which says alot. Porto seem to be involved in more high scoring matches in CL. Seems to set up well. Leipzig playing at home...one would think they'd be able to score two at least. 2-1 final seems like worst case scenario ??

 

[PittsburghKid]

Champ league

City/Napoli over 3 15* to win 10*

Only game for now for me


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[BASON]

I would lean to that over DZ. I just do not trust Leipzig on short rest right now. They just have not proven they can play great back to back games. Plus, Porto has been good defensively recently. Lastly, the line has not moved at all. Enough for me to lay off.

 

[DZ]

I would lean to that over DZ. I just do not trust Leipzig on short rest right now. They just have not proven they can play great back to back games. Plus, Porto has been good defensively recently. Lastly, the line has not moved at all. Enough for me to lay off.

:0008

Gonna pass on that one then. I really like the Man City game over, but 3.5 is tough to swallow against any italian side. Would happily lay the wood on ov3 as Kid has done, but that's not available to me at the moment. Best I can get is 3 1/4 flat.

I'm putting a little on Mariboor +2 and take a shot (very small) on the draw at +710 and 1H draw +230.

 

[Bradjmad22]

Liverpool game over 2.5 (-224)
$347 to win $155


First half play
Liverpool game over 1/1.5 (-120)
$60 to win $50

 

[DZ]

yep, Liverpool finally got their shit together :mj07:

 

[PittsburghKid]

Soooooo mad at myself for not pounding Liverpool every possible way imaginable. I knew they were going to do this to these minnows .. ugh. At least over in City game is already a push at worse


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[PittsburghKid]

My bad I had a score alert that said City 3-0 but apparently it?s 2-0 still


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[DZ]

My bad I had a score alert that said City 3-0 but apparently it?s 2-0 still


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City had the ball sitting on the goal line, just missed a 3rd by inches. Napoli missed a very poorly taken penalty. Score should be 3-1 right now, but there should be at least 3 goals scored to this point. If this score holds at 2-0, which I doubt it will, we should all be pounding the 2H over. So many opportunities.

Leipzig match with 4 goals already :facepalm:

 

[BASON]

Sorry DZ, some of my advice looks like absolute shit today. Of course every other bet I would have made looks great. Better pray Real start to play! If it stays 0-1, I will be hitting the second half pretty hard.

And as soon I type that Real scores. Will sit tight at 1-1 as I have too much at risk on this already.

I hate missed Pks!!

 

[BASON]

Agree DZ, I will be hitting the City 2nd half over, but it will be 2, so going to need 3 to win.

 

[PittsburghKid]

Goals everywhere today! Head spinning lol


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[BASON]

I got City second half at Ov 1.5 -140. Just doubling my original bet at higher juice, but I took it based on the the first half.

 

[BASON]

Well boys, I am definitely taking a break now. Losing is part of the business and I can live with it, but I hate losing other peoples money. How I went 0-2 today is beyond me. City game should have had 6 goals. Don't understand how Real can be this bad at home. Only thing I do know is that Benzema is terrible and Zidane has to stop being loyal to him. It has been a long while since I lost a big juice game, so when I am very confident and losing games like I did today, I am old enough to know it is time to recharge the batteries. Again, sorry for those who followed.

 

[DZ]

Well that sucked on multiple levels.

All good, Bason. Recharge those batts.

 

[DZ]

Liverpool game over 2.5 (-224)
$347 to win $155


First half play
Liverpool game over 1/1.5 (-120)
$60 to win $50

good calls here, Brad. As easy of a bet as there was all day.

 

[PittsburghKid]

-6.4* on year. Somehow pushed City total. How bay game ended 2-1 I will never know. City had a goal taken away for offsides? Correct call? I didn?t see it



Wednesday champ league

Going Big today. Some of these FH I see as at worse a push.

Bayern FH -1 14* to win 10*
Bayern -2.5 6.5* to win 5*
PSG FH -1 12* to win 10*
PSG FH 6.6* to win 3*
Atletico -1.5 6* to win 5*
Atletico FH 4.5* to win 3*
Atletico records shutout 17* to win 10*





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[PittsburghKid]

I almost only took atletico for shutout but thought they need this game against the Minnows . Ugh..

Pens fan we play our first round game Monday at mars at 6.

Senior night tonight. Should be a nice ending to a solid season so far.

I think we got robbed a little in seeding. We?re in the toughest section. South section has so many minnows in it and he top two teams pound.. not sure how we got a 6 seed and not the 5 or 4. Can?t tell me yough in that section deserve that over us with our section.. oh well.. gotta go play now.

Hope playoff bracket turned out well For your sons school


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