Sony Open

Stanley

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Preview & plays ...

Three years ago John Huston set a PGA Tour record of 28-under-par for this event. Changes were forthcoming, but they were largely cosmetic. The tees were brought forward at the first and 17th holes to make them par-fours instead of par-fives. Fairways were allegedly narrowed considerably, but it made little difference to scoring. After the winds had blown Jeff Sluman to victory in 1999, Paul Azinger won this event last year, completing the 72-holes in just one shot more than Huston had done in 1998. Accuracy is more important than length off the tee, but the crucial aspect at Waialae is the Bermuda greens. Time and again, good putters and especially good Bermuda green putters have performed well at Waialae.

The outright picks for this event reflect that preference for accuracy over length and for Bermuda over Bentgrass. The first is the single-figure favorite for this event Ernie Els. The 'Big Easy' wins events on tight courses and this is tighter than the average course, but Els' best part of his game, statistically, is his putting and he is well-accustomed to the grainy Bermuda greens on offer this week. He may have looked a little rusty in Melbourne, but for nine holes last Saturday afternoon, he was in a different class to the rest of the field. He can build on that and certainly improve on his debut 5th place here last year.

Ahead of him last year was John Huston in 3rd place. The tightening of the course was supposed to counter Huston's game of 1998, but it seemed to make no difference as he showed last year. All six of his Tour wins have been on Bermuda greens and with a good close to last week's event where he finished 5th, his event should be very high on his list of season priorities.

The final pick is Texan Jeff Maggert who boasts five top-10 finishes in his nine visits to this course. Even before the course was tightened he was performing well here, but since the changes were made he has finished 2nd and 9th last year. For a player who has had difficulties with his game over the last couples of years despite winning the WGC Matchplay in 1999, that is quite a performance. Like the others, he is more accurate than long, better on Bermuda than Bentgrass and comes off a top-10 finish last week. Looks a decent play for a top-5 finish.

Outright plays:

Ernie Els to win 8/1 @ First Stake [same @ Easybets]
John Huston to win 25/1 e/w @ DAS
Jeff Maggert to win 50/1 e/w @ Surrey


ag, first time we've had spread betting plays posted here. Very welcome
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They certainly make the viewing more exciting! Can't say I agree with you about Azinger though. I would say he'll finish top-10 here and it is very unlikely he will miss the cut or finish 50th or below; there was no evidence of that at the Mercedes last week. However I do agree you on Begay. Opposed him myself last week for two very rare wins this year so far
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wannabe whale

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Went to your site Stan for the first time-Excellent stuff--nice work.

I am limited in my plays currently-with Olympic as my main book-they are very weak on golf--but.....
I am playing:
Huston @ 20-1
Parnevik @ 26-1
Appleby @40-1
Also backed the field for Mize and Maggert are included there at 3-1
Individual plays 72 Holes
Appleby +120 Over Love
Huston -120 Over Cink **** Best Bet
Kraft -115 Over Parry
Franco -110 Over Sabbatini

Good Luck to all!!!
 

Stanley

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72-hole plays [had liked a lot of those available, but whittled them down to these five]:

Stuart Appleby to beat Robert Allenby -110 @ Olympic [3 units]
Looking to oppose Australians this week! Allenby has not played this course before and finished only mid-table last week despite the excellent form he had shown in his native land. With finishes of 9th, 16th and 2nd in the last three years for Appleby, most books rightly have Appleby the favorite, but not Olympic

Davis Love to beat Robert Allenby -135 @ Bowmans [3 units] * VOID see next page *
Again course experience and good putting stats, particularly with a preference for Bermuda greens are the rationale here. Though Love is the most frustrating of players to lay money on, he has finished in the top-10 in his last three appearances here and shot 60 around this course in 1994

Chris Perry to beat Greg Chalmers -150 @ First Stake [3 units]
Very strange matchup. Perry has not yet repeated his form of 1999, but Chalmers has missed the cut on both his appearances here

Carlos Franco to beat Craig Parry +120 @ SportingbetUSA [2 units]
Franco has shown last year that he can cope with the winds of Hawaii and while he was only mid-table at the Mercedes last week, I think he will again record a top-20 finish. Should be more than enough to beat his opponent who has missed his last two cuts here and also had the weekend off last week

Carlos Franco to beat Rory Sabbatini -110 @ Olympic [2 units]
Expecting a reaction from Sabbatini, especially in the way he lost the Mercedes Championship last week. He record of following good finishes is also not good: 3rd in the BellSouth 1999, missed cut the next event; 3rd in the BC Open 1999, 65th the next event; 2nd in the Bob Hope 2000, 58th the next event. Only once has he built on a top-5 finish: he followed his win in last year's Air Canada Championship with 6th place the next week. Finally, Sabbatini has missed the cut on both his appearances here


Thanks WW. Hope you can make better use of the site than I having been doing of late
wink.gif


[This message has been edited by Stanley (edited 01-18-2001).]
 

Stanley

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Ian has just been pointed out to me that Allenby has played here the last two years - my error in converting database to table
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However, those finishes of missed cut and 39th are hardly spectacular and the plays are still as strong as before
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ag

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so far i am right on azinger, not going to make much though, due to an "arb" at the spread. hills buy at 21 and sold at 25 with sporting.

therefore guaranteeing a 4pts profit whatever happens. my initial plan was to oppose but you dont turn down guranteed money when you can get it
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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1st round result
72 holes
Parry/Paulson 4 up
C Perry/Kraft 3up
Parny/Lehman 3 down
Houston/Parny 1up
Kraft/Parry 1 down

Outright-Huston still in hunt at -2

3ball combo: only defeat out of 4 matches was Daly over Love. Who'd of thought.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Question I was going to pop Sluman @25/1 e/w after 1st rd at 1st stake but noticed they only paid 4 places.Somehow I was thinking they paid 5 places on Huston initially. Am I incorrect?
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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4ball combo(I think)at 1st Stake
Roberts-Huston-Mize-Faxon

Assuming a four fold is 4 ball combo,however they keep throwing this yankee term at me also and I can't figure how they know its me making the wager
biggrin.gif

MUCH better format @Sportingbet on 3balls,can see all matches at once and doesn't take 15 minutes to key in 4 players.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Results at the cut-all 72 hole matches concluded.
Parry/Paulson won by 5
Kraft/Parry lost by 6
Perry/Kraft won by 5
Parny/Lehman lost by 10
Huston/Parny won by 6

2nd round matches
Sluman/Franco lost by 6
Mutphy/Nicklaus push (Nicklaus eagled last hole to tie)
rolleyes.gif


3ball combo: Not denied today.After hitting 3 of 4 yesterday, manage the sweep today.
Paid 24.75 to 1.
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DOGS THAT BARK

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3rd round play @$Plays
Faxon -115 over Jacobson

Don't know whats up @ 5dimes most there 3rd rounds matches involve people that didn't make cut???
 

Ian

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Sorry for leaving you on your own DTB but things are not going to plan this week. I have been stupid and bet some extra plays to no avail, so it is time to sit back and take my medicine, haven't had a losing week since November so I suppose one is due
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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No problem Ian. You and Stan have some pretty exciting outrights in the till.

4th round plays @ 5Dimes
Mize +145 over Maruyama
Funk +130 over Glasson

Going with some pretty big pups today.I have these matches rated even if not a tad for underdog in each case.Olympic confirms this with both dogs at lesser odds while each giving up a stroke.I'll bite.
 
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