OUTRIGHTS:
Bubba Watson(100/1) e.w.
- - Events have been aligning nicely since late last spring when I first had Bubba plotted as my huckleberry for Waialae . . . My guidepost in capping Bubba comes from an interview then in which Bubba essentially said he doesn't much care for or do well on courses on which his prodigious and attacking driving doesn't leave him with real advantages when hitting into greens with wedges (from fairway or rough) when most everyone else is hitting 7-irons, and he's hitting 8-iron while the field is back there with a 4-iron, etc. (Sticking with that theme, Bubba's finish at Oakmont was an obvious testament to his much improved putting in 2007, but Cabrera's victory there and strong showings there most of the way by Paul Casey and Aaron Baddeley surely sugggest a course on which attacking driving could be well-rewarded despite the brutal U.S. Open setup) . . . Waialae in 2006 was the moment when Bubba's exploits first put him in the orbit of one-name legends . . . Waialae features lots of sharp doglegs that must present Bubba's eyes with a much different visual than most of his peers. And I don't know the numbers and I could be wrong, but I believe Waialae produces stats with some of the lowest percentages of fairways hit by the field on the Tour every year, so what does that tell you about the possible advantages of consistently being, in the short grass or not, 50-100 yards ahead of most everyone else?? Bubba's encore in 2007 was nothing to write home about (and he hadn't yet given the interview that subsequently put 2 + 2 = 4 on my radar), but if I remember correctly, 2007 might have been an unusual year in which both Hawaii events were impacted by Kona winds rather than the prevailing Trade winds, and theses courses are always a different animal when that happens . . . And finally, from Dave Tindall at sportingzone: "(Watson was) second place alongside tournament host Greg Norman in the Merrill Lynch Shootout last month and the Aussie was blown away by his partner's talent. After watching Watson strike the ball superbly, Norman said: "He was never swinging outside of his capabilities. The ball was under control especially with his short irons. He was hitting the ball the right distance all the time. "I haven't seen a guy like this since the days of Ballesteros, Trevino, probably a little bit of myself because I maneuver the ball a lot. I used to flight the ball tremendously high, low, whatever I saw. You really don't see players these days with the technology that we have and the golf ball that we have do the things that Bubba does. That's a unique talent, to say the least, because he told me that he goes out there and plays with one club sometimes. That's an art in itself because you're learning to play shots, hook shots, fade shots, hit them high and hit them low. With the ability that he has and with the youth on his side, you know, I said to him today basically the world is his oyster." Watson also putted well so if, a month on, his game is still in good shape he could make a big impression here again."...: And the thought honestly just struck me last night of whether there's any karma in the fact that it was at Waialae in 1973 when I hitched my wagon to a star by the name of Tom W*a*t*s*o*n (anyone remember that coming out party? - anyone in my family can vouch for the fact that my life as a sports fan is defined by Arnold Palmer, the Green Bay Packers, Tom Watson and internet wagering) . . . So, Bubba Watson(100/1) is my huckleberry this week.
Stephen Ames(20/1) e.w.
- - Daniel Chopra was the name last week that I told myself during my ruminations I would be kicking myself over if he came good and I had passed him by . . . Stephen Ames is that "kicking myself" name from my ruminations this week.
Chad Campbell(50/1) e.w.
- - When it came to Chad last week, my decision was to keep my powder dry but nevertheless keep an eye out for what I really figured should be favorable signs going forward; that's the process that hatched this week's play . . . My own reluctance with Chad last week was partly due to the nature of the putting surfaces at Kapalua, but now after the fact, I don't think putting rates any special premium at Kapalua, and that aspect in fact contributed to Chad putting his name right in the mix. Regardless, Chad did all I wanted and more to make him a certain play for this week (having already factored in the personal history of Chad succumbing to the near epic display by David Toms in 2006 while playing alongside), but to boot I sure didn't mind reading the following yesterday, again from Dave Tindall: "It's one of my favourites courses I play all year. I just like the way it's kind of an old-style, traditional golf course. Those really fit my eye. There's some more we play on Tour, but this is definitely one of the top ones I enjoy playing."" . . . A classy Seth Raynor design and the forecast I've seen calls for a very gusty weekend.
Angel Cabrera(33/1) e.w.
- - For 2007 and prior seasons, the capping notebook "I keep in my head" had Cabrera down as a player who would barely be up to speed for starting his season by the time of the Accenture Matchplay. After coming good at Oakmont, I was anticipating his new stature would require a reevaluation going forward of most of the scraps stored in that mental notebook regarding El Pato. My inclination was that there would be a short period of consolidation, but then unlike Michael Campbell, Cabrera on the big stage would wear well the mantle of current and immediate past U.S. Open champion through a strong 2008 season. All indicators since June were reasonably positive for a strong showing at Kapalua, and he didn't disappoint. Always streaky, it appears The Duck will try to cut Waialae down to size with much the same abandon I'm anticipating from Bubba (1/1/07 Excerpt: "I think the drive is the hardest thing in golf. When somebody loses confidence in their drive, they're dead. Dead. What can I tell your readers? You have to practice, and practice and practice, and do it with self-confidence. When I get to that tee box, I believe in myself so much and I have so much confidence in my drives, and I know that I'll hit more fairways with my driver than with my 2-iron or 3-wood. My confidence is very, very high with my driver."), and his game looks close to his best . . . A pairing with Rory Sabbatini also adds a dynamic of some sort, although I would have preferred something that felt less combustible in terms of a downside . . . (FWIW:
http://www.travelandleisure.com/tlgolf/articles/golf-the-faldo-file . . . Excerpt from Faldo: "I have a feeling Angel will keep bubbling along just under the surface as he has been?only now in a more high-profile manner. He's not a player you can pick to win on any given week. His stars have to align. But on that week when everything's all lined up, you won't be able to stop him. He'll play his attacking style, and he'll just score all day long.) Well Nick, you're probably right, I probably shouldn't try to make him a pick to win on any given week, especially at Waialae, but I just did, and I already have him plotted in again for a very likely play on some level at the Accenture Match Play.
Last year I had CH3 here at 80/1, and still had him at 40/1 at Riviera, which is why I'm comfortable only going with a saver this week at 30/1 . . . . Maybe before the off I'll get a chance to more thoroughly scour the young guns and renaissance stories for some wagering action that stands out or appeals, but that hasn't been my focus.
GL
