4th round plays (1pt)
K.J. Choi to beat Tim Wilkinson -188 @ Sportingbet WON by 7
Always difficult to follow up such a low round and it should be too much for Wilkinson who managed to do just once in his Nationwide Tour career. Choi is an excellent front runner and will force Wilkinson to take chances to close the gap and that rarely works
K.J. Choi to beat Chad Campbell -105 @ Pinnacle WON by 2
In each of the last EIGHT times that Choi has held the lead heading into the 4th round, he has won the tournament. On the PGA Tour, he is four out of four with final round scores of 67, 68, 66 and 67. Campbell has broken 70 just once in the six occasions over the last two years that he has entered the final round between 5 and 7 shots behind the leader, averaging 71.67 and never moving up the leaderboard
Rory Sabbatini to beat Jay Williamson -138 @ Sportingbet WON by 7
Sabbatini, by contrast, is much better when in contention: in the last six times he has entered the final round 4th or 5th, he has finished in the top-3 every time, winning once. Williamson hasn't been in that position on the PGA Tour since 2004 and the only time in the last three years (2007 Athens Regional Foundation Classic, Nationwide Tour) saw him fall down the leaderboard to 29th.
Rory Sabbatini to beat Stephen Ames +105 @ Five Dimes WON by 3
Opposed Ames in the final round last week as a poor final round player and lost, but will oppose him again on the same basis. It will help that he is two shots further back than Sabbatini and with very less chance of winning
Steve Stricker to beat Stephen Ames -135 @ Carib WON by 1
Stricker is one shot closer to the lead than Ames, but he is much more proven in this situation, falling out of a top-10 position in only one of eleven final round starts since 2006
Heath Slocum to beat Pat Perez -105 @ Carib LOST by 1
Perez has broken 70 just once in twelve final round starts when in the top-10 in the last three years; Slocum has done in five out of seven attempts over the same period
Overall
This week: 10-3; +6.47pts
This year: 17-14; +0.64pts