Stock Market Thread - ALL COMBINED
- Thread starter vinnie
- Start date
Sell in May and go away: fact or fallacy?
Where is the stock market heading? Has the rally that started in early March been exhausted? These are the key questions on all investors? minds as financial markets remain caught between the frantic actions of central banks to get the cogs of the credit system and economy turning again on the one hand, and a still shaky economic and corporate outlook on the other.
It is therefore no wonder that even so-called ?pop analysis?, including some legendary axioms, is resorted to in a quest for direction. And besides ?buy low and sell high? few other axioms are more widely propagated than ?sell in May and go away?. A Google search revealed an astounding 127,000 items featuring this phrase.
As equities have seen a particularly strong six-week rally, followed by what looks like the start of a consolidation/retracement of some of the recent gains, investors are justifiably questioning the market?s next move. And they nervously wonder whether this May will not only herald longer days in the Northern Hemisphere, but also live up to its reputation as the advent of a corrective phase in the markets.
The important issue, however, is whether this axiom actually has any scientific basis at all. Analyzing historical returns, the figures vary from market to market, but long-term statistics seem to show that the best time to be invested in equities is the six months from early November through to the end of April of the next year (?good? periods), while the ?bad? periods normally occur over the six months from May to October.
A study of the MSCI World Index, a commonly used benchmark for global equity markets, reveals that since 1969 ?good? periods returned +6.5% per annum while investors were actually in the red by -1.0% per annum during the ?bad? periods.
?Sell in May and go away? also holds true for the US stock markets. An updated study by Plexus Asset Management of the S&P 500 Index shows that the returns of the ?good? six-month periods from January 1950 to March 2009 were 7.9% per annum whereas those of the ?bad? periods were 2.5% per annum.
A study of the pattern in monthly returns reveals that the ?bad? periods of the S&P 500 Index are quite distinct, with five of the six months from May to October having lower average monthly returns than the six months of the good periods. Interestingly, May ? the first month of the bad patch ? is the only exception.
Historical average returns from May to October in emerging markets also tended to be weaker than those from November to April, as shown in the graph below (hat tip: US Global Funds).
But what exactly does this mean for the investor who contemplates timing the market by selling in May and reinvesting in November? Further analysis shows that had one kept the investment in the S&P 500 Index only during the ?good? six-month periods, and reinvested the proceeds in the money market during the ?bad? six-month periods, the total return would have been 10.5% per annum.
These calculations do not take tax into account. And, of course, every time one switches out of and back into the stock market there are costs involved, which would also reduce the returns for the market timer.
How did the good and bad periods stack up during the past two years? The results are as follows.
? May 2007 ? October 2007: +4.52%
? November 2007 ? April 2008: -9.62%
? May 2008 ? October 2008: -30.1%
? November 2008 ? April 2009: -5.1%
Some you win, some you don?t! It seems that the axiom ?sell in May and go away? in itself is a rather doubtful basis for timing equity investments. However, it may serve a useful purpose as input, together with other factors, to otherwise rational decision making.
Wish I had --sold in May and went away
Better not look. We were up nicely all day long until the last hour, and then headed south :sadwave:
- Feb 12, 2000
- 10,652
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This is why I am not in the market currently. Money to be had, for sure, but overall I think our market is overly optimistic.
http://www.drjeffcornwall.com/2010/05/still-looking-like-a-long-l.html
http://www.drjeffcornwall.com/2010/05/still-looking-like-a-long-l.html
I'm taking the gas pipe with this stock :142smilie
Currently $6.56 premarket.
I'm holding on and will be averaging down on this one, clearing out my other long holdings to get back to nearly 100% cash, and prepare myself for the big drop/correction that will be happening some time this year. they made me a believer and I think the market will be seeing 8500 again pretty soon too. If not, I'll have my cash stashed safely away while I wait.
My large holdings, SRZ and ICO i'll be selling during this run UP, not going to wait and sell during the run DOWN. I'm sure I can get back in one day in the future for less than I sell for now.
good luck!
my accounts took a nice haircur since the last week of april but i'm still way ahead of the game since I started and feel safe playing it out this way.
:toast:
That said
I may still day trade on the long side with tight stops because there sure are a lot of stocks that look like bargins out there. I'm just not going to go long term with any long because I don't want them to dip and have to wait a year to get back to even.
I may still day trade on the long side with tight stops because there sure are a lot of stocks that look like bargins out there. I'm just not going to go long term with any long because I don't want them to dip and have to wait a year to get back to even.
