Larry Ness
15* Total of the Week
What could be more perfect than the Jets and Dolphins opening the '08 season. Bill Parcells (former Jets coach) is now the GM in Miami and of course, Brett Favre was signed by the Jets right before the opening of the preseason and that very same day the Jets released their starting QB Chad Pennington. Parcells wasted no time signing Pennington (who he drafted) and immediately named him as Miami's starting QB. As everyone knows, the Dolphins almost "lost them all" last year,going 1-15. It won't be a "quick fix" for these Dolphins, who are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 division games and whose roster includes 27 new players (including 11 rookies). As for the Jets, all eyes are on Favre. He's had about a month to learn a new playbook/system and it will be interesting to see how long it takes him to bond with WRs Coles (better than his 55-catch season LY) and Cotchery (82 catches / 1,130 yards). However, Brett's a "big boy" and I don't expect there to be too much of a "learning curve." RB Thomas Jones did little in the preseason but he's got a retooled OL with free-agent signed Damien Woody and Alan Faneca. The Bears made a HUGE mistake in letting him go and I expect him (with Favre offering much more of a threat than Pennington) to have a big year. Also, Leon Washington is primed for a big year as a third-down and change-of-pace option out of the backfield (think Brian Westbrook). Pennington wants nothing more to "prove the Jets wrong" and the fact that he is familiar with their defensive alignments and tendencies can't help but be an advantage. Ricky Williams has returned from "wherever," to regain the starting RB position but Ronnie Brown can play and both will see action (FYI...Brown has topped 100 yards in each of his last three games vs the Jets, averaging 116.3 per). Miami was one of just five NFL teams to allow more than 400 points last year (437) and I don't the team's defense being all that much better in '08. The Jets have gone 7-3 SU (9-1 ATS) the last 10 years in Miami and won last year 40-13, with Kellen Clemens at QB (also beat the Dolphins 31-28 in the Meadowlands). In Week 1 of '08, it will be Brett Favre, making his 254th consecutive start. The weather forecast for Sunday is hot and humid (40 percent chance of rain), which means 'tired' legs come the second half which could create some scoring opportunities. I expect this game to 'fly over' this very low total.
15* NYJ/Mia over
20* NFL Pick
The Bills are the only team in NFL history to reach four consecutive Super Bowls (of course, they did lost ALL four) but Buffalo enters the '08 season having missed the last EIGHT postseasons, tied for the second-longest drought of any team (Arizona has missed nine straight postseasons). In comparison, the Seahawks have made it to five consecutive postseasons, winning the NFC West in each of the last four years. The Bills haven't been to the postseason since 1999 and have had only one winning season since then, going 9-7 in '04. Last year's team had devastating injuries to the defensive side of the ball, finishing 25th in the NFL in rushing defense (124.6 YPG) and 29th with an average of 238.4 YPG allowed through the air. A sporadic pass rush produced just 26 sacks, contributed to the secondary's woes. The Bills didn't "stand pat" in the off-season though, trading with the Jags for three-time Pro Bowl DT Marcus Stroud, signing LB Kawika Mitchell from the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants as a FA and selecting CB Leodis McKelvin in the first round of April's draft. The return of MLB Paul Posluszny, who suffered a season-ending broken arm in Week 3 of his rookie campaign, will be huge for a linebacking corps that now includes Mitchell and LY's leading tackler Angelo Crowell. McKelvin joins the solid CB duo of Terrence McGee and Jabari Greer plus gets FS Ko Simpson back, a 15-game starter as a rookie in 2006 who fractured his ankle in last year's season opener and never returned. Offensively, Trent Edwards has replaced JP Losman as the team's starter at QB and despite missing most of the preseason, is ready to go here. Rookie RB Lynch had 1,115 rushing yards last year, the most by a Bills running back since 1980, and the receiving corps will be better than last year. Lee Evans (55 receptions, 5 TD) was the only real threat last year but rookie James Hardy at 6' 5" will be a HUGE addition. Seattle QB Tim Hasselbeck played just two series in the preseason (back problems), leaving him little time to work with an inexperienced group of receivers, with both Branch and Engram unavailable. Shaun Alexander, the heart of the team's running game in their playoff-run, was released in the off-season. That leaves Julius Jones (FA-Dallas) and the so-so Maurice Morris. Seattle's D is respectable, but nothing special. Mike Holmgren is coaching his final season and the Seahawks would love to send their outgoing coach off with a fifth consecutive NFC West title and sixth straight trip to the postseason. The NFC West is weak (again), so they just may do just that. However, Seattle will travel an NFL-high 34,766 miles this year and is 2-10 ATS away vs AFC opponents, including just 1-7 in the Eastern time zone. The entire division is just 21-41-1 ATS in non-division road games the last three years, showing that's division's weakness. Despite all the defensive injuries LY, the Bills covered all of their home games except those against the Pats and Giants, the two Super Bowl participants. The Bills are headed to the playoffs in '08 and it begins with a win here.
20*Buffao Bills
Weekend Wipeout Winner
Philly QB Donovan McNabb has missed 15 games due to injury over the past three seasons and hasn't completed a 16-game season since 2003. However, the Eagles could be "the team to beat" in a wide-open NFC this year, as they enter the year with an upgraded pass rush, the addition of Asante Samuel (NE-free agent) to an already strong secondary and with super-quick rookie DeSean Jackson greatly improving Philly's return game. Improvement to the Eagles' special teams is no small matter, as special teams errors cost the Eagles at least two early wins in '07, particularly their opener in Lambeau Field to the Packers. McNabb (3324 passing yards, 19 TD / 7 INT) is still the team's leader but its best player is RB Brian Westbrook (1,333 rushing yards, 90 receptions, 12 TD). WR Kevin Curtis (sports hernia) is out and so is Reggie Brown (61 receptions, 4 TD) with a hamstring injury but I'm calling for DeSean Jackson to make a HUGE impact this year and LJ Smith (TE) has always been under-utilized. The Eagles were eighth in the league in passing a year ago and 10th in rushing, but just 17th in scoring offense. They HAVE to finish off drives this year. Scoring should come rather easily against the Rams, who last year allowed 438 points, the second-highest total in franchise history. Despite the adding DE Chris Long, the second overall pick in the draft, I wouldn't expect too much of an improvement in the team's defense this year. Offensively, Marc Bulger is coming off his worst season as a pro, throwing just 11 TDs and 15 INTs (he had a 59-31 ratio the previous three seasons) with a QB rating of only 70.3 (his rating had been over 90.0 in all but ONE of his previous five years). The OL was a mess in '07, using almost 20 different combos and it opens this year banged up, as well. Issac Bruce left as a FA for the 49ers and Tory Holt is another year older. Steven Jackson held out almost all of training camp and that's after a season in which his rushing yards dropped from 1,528 to 1,0002 and his receiving numbers fell from 90 catches for 806 yards to 38 catches for 271 yards. Most feel Philly's pass rush will be better this year and let's note that the Rams' troubled OL allowed 48 sacks last year. Philly has a very good LB corps and with Samuel joining CBs Sheldon Brown and ex-Pro Bowler Lito Sheppard plus Brian Dawkins and Quintin Mikell returning as the safeties, this is an outstanding unit. Jackson figures to be slow "rounding into shape" (remember Larry Johnson after his similar holdout LY with KC?) and Bulger looks "shell-shocked" these days, much like Kurt Warner in his last days with the Rams. The Rams have really struggled at home these last three seasons (8-16 SU and ATS) but they haven't exactly been "road warriors" since their last Super Bowl appearance (in '01) either, going 16-32 SU and 17-31 ATS away from home the last six seasons. They are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in those last six season-openers since appearing in the Super Bowl and the "Greatest Show on Turf" is 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games on grass fields. The Eagles visit Dallas next week and host the Steelers in Week 3, so they won't allow this "winning opportunity" to slip away here.
Philadelphia Eagles