Sunday 9/7/08 Service plays
- Thread starter the duke
- Start date
Larry Ness
15* Total of the Week
What could be more perfect than the Jets and Dolphins opening the '08 season. Bill Parcells (former Jets coach) is now the GM in Miami and of course, Brett Favre was signed by the Jets right before the opening of the preseason and that very same day the Jets released their starting QB Chad Pennington. Parcells wasted no time signing Pennington (who he drafted) and immediately named him as Miami's starting QB. As everyone knows, the Dolphins almost "lost them all" last year,going 1-15. It won't be a "quick fix" for these Dolphins, who are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 division games and whose roster includes 27 new players (including 11 rookies). As for the Jets, all eyes are on Favre. He's had about a month to learn a new playbook/system and it will be interesting to see how long it takes him to bond with WRs Coles (better than his 55-catch season LY) and Cotchery (82 catches / 1,130 yards). However, Brett's a "big boy" and I don't expect there to be too much of a "learning curve." RB Thomas Jones did little in the preseason but he's got a retooled OL with free-agent signed Damien Woody and Alan Faneca. The Bears made a HUGE mistake in letting him go and I expect him (with Favre offering much more of a threat than Pennington) to have a big year. Also, Leon Washington is primed for a big year as a third-down and change-of-pace option out of the backfield (think Brian Westbrook). Pennington wants nothing more to "prove the Jets wrong" and the fact that he is familiar with their defensive alignments and tendencies can't help but be an advantage. Ricky Williams has returned from "wherever," to regain the starting RB position but Ronnie Brown can play and both will see action (FYI...Brown has topped 100 yards in each of his last three games vs the Jets, averaging 116.3 per). Miami was one of just five NFL teams to allow more than 400 points last year (437) and I don't the team's defense being all that much better in '08. The Jets have gone 7-3 SU (9-1 ATS) the last 10 years in Miami and won last year 40-13, with Kellen Clemens at QB (also beat the Dolphins 31-28 in the Meadowlands). In Week 1 of '08, it will be Brett Favre, making his 254th consecutive start. The weather forecast for Sunday is hot and humid (40 percent chance of rain), which means 'tired' legs come the second half which could create some scoring opportunities. I expect this game to 'fly over' this very low total.
15* NYJ/Mia over
20* NFL Pick
The Bills are the only team in NFL history to reach four consecutive Super Bowls (of course, they did lost ALL four) but Buffalo enters the '08 season having missed the last EIGHT postseasons, tied for the second-longest drought of any team (Arizona has missed nine straight postseasons). In comparison, the Seahawks have made it to five consecutive postseasons, winning the NFC West in each of the last four years. The Bills haven't been to the postseason since 1999 and have had only one winning season since then, going 9-7 in '04. Last year's team had devastating injuries to the defensive side of the ball, finishing 25th in the NFL in rushing defense (124.6 YPG) and 29th with an average of 238.4 YPG allowed through the air. A sporadic pass rush produced just 26 sacks, contributed to the secondary's woes. The Bills didn't "stand pat" in the off-season though, trading with the Jags for three-time Pro Bowl DT Marcus Stroud, signing LB Kawika Mitchell from the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants as a FA and selecting CB Leodis McKelvin in the first round of April's draft. The return of MLB Paul Posluszny, who suffered a season-ending broken arm in Week 3 of his rookie campaign, will be huge for a linebacking corps that now includes Mitchell and LY's leading tackler Angelo Crowell. McKelvin joins the solid CB duo of Terrence McGee and Jabari Greer plus gets FS Ko Simpson back, a 15-game starter as a rookie in 2006 who fractured his ankle in last year's season opener and never returned. Offensively, Trent Edwards has replaced JP Losman as the team's starter at QB and despite missing most of the preseason, is ready to go here. Rookie RB Lynch had 1,115 rushing yards last year, the most by a Bills running back since 1980, and the receiving corps will be better than last year. Lee Evans (55 receptions, 5 TD) was the only real threat last year but rookie James Hardy at 6' 5" will be a HUGE addition. Seattle QB Tim Hasselbeck played just two series in the preseason (back problems), leaving him little time to work with an inexperienced group of receivers, with both Branch and Engram unavailable. Shaun Alexander, the heart of the team's running game in their playoff-run, was released in the off-season. That leaves Julius Jones (FA-Dallas) and the so-so Maurice Morris. Seattle's D is respectable, but nothing special. Mike Holmgren is coaching his final season and the Seahawks would love to send their outgoing coach off with a fifth consecutive NFC West title and sixth straight trip to the postseason. The NFC West is weak (again), so they just may do just that. However, Seattle will travel an NFL-high 34,766 miles this year and is 2-10 ATS away vs AFC opponents, including just 1-7 in the Eastern time zone. The entire division is just 21-41-1 ATS in non-division road games the last three years, showing that's division's weakness. Despite all the defensive injuries LY, the Bills covered all of their home games except those against the Pats and Giants, the two Super Bowl participants. The Bills are headed to the playoffs in '08 and it begins with a win here.
20*Buffao Bills
Weekend Wipeout Winner
Philly QB Donovan McNabb has missed 15 games due to injury over the past three seasons and hasn't completed a 16-game season since 2003. However, the Eagles could be "the team to beat" in a wide-open NFC this year, as they enter the year with an upgraded pass rush, the addition of Asante Samuel (NE-free agent) to an already strong secondary and with super-quick rookie DeSean Jackson greatly improving Philly's return game. Improvement to the Eagles' special teams is no small matter, as special teams errors cost the Eagles at least two early wins in '07, particularly their opener in Lambeau Field to the Packers. McNabb (3324 passing yards, 19 TD / 7 INT) is still the team's leader but its best player is RB Brian Westbrook (1,333 rushing yards, 90 receptions, 12 TD). WR Kevin Curtis (sports hernia) is out and so is Reggie Brown (61 receptions, 4 TD) with a hamstring injury but I'm calling for DeSean Jackson to make a HUGE impact this year and LJ Smith (TE) has always been under-utilized. The Eagles were eighth in the league in passing a year ago and 10th in rushing, but just 17th in scoring offense. They HAVE to finish off drives this year. Scoring should come rather easily against the Rams, who last year allowed 438 points, the second-highest total in franchise history. Despite the adding DE Chris Long, the second overall pick in the draft, I wouldn't expect too much of an improvement in the team's defense this year. Offensively, Marc Bulger is coming off his worst season as a pro, throwing just 11 TDs and 15 INTs (he had a 59-31 ratio the previous three seasons) with a QB rating of only 70.3 (his rating had been over 90.0 in all but ONE of his previous five years). The OL was a mess in '07, using almost 20 different combos and it opens this year banged up, as well. Issac Bruce left as a FA for the 49ers and Tory Holt is another year older. Steven Jackson held out almost all of training camp and that's after a season in which his rushing yards dropped from 1,528 to 1,0002 and his receiving numbers fell from 90 catches for 806 yards to 38 catches for 271 yards. Most feel Philly's pass rush will be better this year and let's note that the Rams' troubled OL allowed 48 sacks last year. Philly has a very good LB corps and with Samuel joining CBs Sheldon Brown and ex-Pro Bowler Lito Sheppard plus Brian Dawkins and Quintin Mikell returning as the safeties, this is an outstanding unit. Jackson figures to be slow "rounding into shape" (remember Larry Johnson after his similar holdout LY with KC?) and Bulger looks "shell-shocked" these days, much like Kurt Warner in his last days with the Rams. The Rams have really struggled at home these last three seasons (8-16 SU and ATS) but they haven't exactly been "road warriors" since their last Super Bowl appearance (in '01) either, going 16-32 SU and 17-31 ATS away from home the last six seasons. They are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in those last six season-openers since appearing in the Super Bowl and the "Greatest Show on Turf" is 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games on grass fields. The Eagles visit Dallas next week and host the Steelers in Week 3, so they won't allow this "winning opportunity" to slip away here.
Philadelphia Eagles
15* Total of the Week
What could be more perfect than the Jets and Dolphins opening the '08 season. Bill Parcells (former Jets coach) is now the GM in Miami and of course, Brett Favre was signed by the Jets right before the opening of the preseason and that very same day the Jets released their starting QB Chad Pennington. Parcells wasted no time signing Pennington (who he drafted) and immediately named him as Miami's starting QB. As everyone knows, the Dolphins almost "lost them all" last year,going 1-15. It won't be a "quick fix" for these Dolphins, who are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 division games and whose roster includes 27 new players (including 11 rookies). As for the Jets, all eyes are on Favre. He's had about a month to learn a new playbook/system and it will be interesting to see how long it takes him to bond with WRs Coles (better than his 55-catch season LY) and Cotchery (82 catches / 1,130 yards). However, Brett's a "big boy" and I don't expect there to be too much of a "learning curve." RB Thomas Jones did little in the preseason but he's got a retooled OL with free-agent signed Damien Woody and Alan Faneca. The Bears made a HUGE mistake in letting him go and I expect him (with Favre offering much more of a threat than Pennington) to have a big year. Also, Leon Washington is primed for a big year as a third-down and change-of-pace option out of the backfield (think Brian Westbrook). Pennington wants nothing more to "prove the Jets wrong" and the fact that he is familiar with their defensive alignments and tendencies can't help but be an advantage. Ricky Williams has returned from "wherever," to regain the starting RB position but Ronnie Brown can play and both will see action (FYI...Brown has topped 100 yards in each of his last three games vs the Jets, averaging 116.3 per). Miami was one of just five NFL teams to allow more than 400 points last year (437) and I don't the team's defense being all that much better in '08. The Jets have gone 7-3 SU (9-1 ATS) the last 10 years in Miami and won last year 40-13, with Kellen Clemens at QB (also beat the Dolphins 31-28 in the Meadowlands). In Week 1 of '08, it will be Brett Favre, making his 254th consecutive start. The weather forecast for Sunday is hot and humid (40 percent chance of rain), which means 'tired' legs come the second half which could create some scoring opportunities. I expect this game to 'fly over' this very low total.
15* NYJ/Mia over
20* NFL Pick
The Bills are the only team in NFL history to reach four consecutive Super Bowls (of course, they did lost ALL four) but Buffalo enters the '08 season having missed the last EIGHT postseasons, tied for the second-longest drought of any team (Arizona has missed nine straight postseasons). In comparison, the Seahawks have made it to five consecutive postseasons, winning the NFC West in each of the last four years. The Bills haven't been to the postseason since 1999 and have had only one winning season since then, going 9-7 in '04. Last year's team had devastating injuries to the defensive side of the ball, finishing 25th in the NFL in rushing defense (124.6 YPG) and 29th with an average of 238.4 YPG allowed through the air. A sporadic pass rush produced just 26 sacks, contributed to the secondary's woes. The Bills didn't "stand pat" in the off-season though, trading with the Jags for three-time Pro Bowl DT Marcus Stroud, signing LB Kawika Mitchell from the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants as a FA and selecting CB Leodis McKelvin in the first round of April's draft. The return of MLB Paul Posluszny, who suffered a season-ending broken arm in Week 3 of his rookie campaign, will be huge for a linebacking corps that now includes Mitchell and LY's leading tackler Angelo Crowell. McKelvin joins the solid CB duo of Terrence McGee and Jabari Greer plus gets FS Ko Simpson back, a 15-game starter as a rookie in 2006 who fractured his ankle in last year's season opener and never returned. Offensively, Trent Edwards has replaced JP Losman as the team's starter at QB and despite missing most of the preseason, is ready to go here. Rookie RB Lynch had 1,115 rushing yards last year, the most by a Bills running back since 1980, and the receiving corps will be better than last year. Lee Evans (55 receptions, 5 TD) was the only real threat last year but rookie James Hardy at 6' 5" will be a HUGE addition. Seattle QB Tim Hasselbeck played just two series in the preseason (back problems), leaving him little time to work with an inexperienced group of receivers, with both Branch and Engram unavailable. Shaun Alexander, the heart of the team's running game in their playoff-run, was released in the off-season. That leaves Julius Jones (FA-Dallas) and the so-so Maurice Morris. Seattle's D is respectable, but nothing special. Mike Holmgren is coaching his final season and the Seahawks would love to send their outgoing coach off with a fifth consecutive NFC West title and sixth straight trip to the postseason. The NFC West is weak (again), so they just may do just that. However, Seattle will travel an NFL-high 34,766 miles this year and is 2-10 ATS away vs AFC opponents, including just 1-7 in the Eastern time zone. The entire division is just 21-41-1 ATS in non-division road games the last three years, showing that's division's weakness. Despite all the defensive injuries LY, the Bills covered all of their home games except those against the Pats and Giants, the two Super Bowl participants. The Bills are headed to the playoffs in '08 and it begins with a win here.
20*Buffao Bills
Weekend Wipeout Winner
Philly QB Donovan McNabb has missed 15 games due to injury over the past three seasons and hasn't completed a 16-game season since 2003. However, the Eagles could be "the team to beat" in a wide-open NFC this year, as they enter the year with an upgraded pass rush, the addition of Asante Samuel (NE-free agent) to an already strong secondary and with super-quick rookie DeSean Jackson greatly improving Philly's return game. Improvement to the Eagles' special teams is no small matter, as special teams errors cost the Eagles at least two early wins in '07, particularly their opener in Lambeau Field to the Packers. McNabb (3324 passing yards, 19 TD / 7 INT) is still the team's leader but its best player is RB Brian Westbrook (1,333 rushing yards, 90 receptions, 12 TD). WR Kevin Curtis (sports hernia) is out and so is Reggie Brown (61 receptions, 4 TD) with a hamstring injury but I'm calling for DeSean Jackson to make a HUGE impact this year and LJ Smith (TE) has always been under-utilized. The Eagles were eighth in the league in passing a year ago and 10th in rushing, but just 17th in scoring offense. They HAVE to finish off drives this year. Scoring should come rather easily against the Rams, who last year allowed 438 points, the second-highest total in franchise history. Despite the adding DE Chris Long, the second overall pick in the draft, I wouldn't expect too much of an improvement in the team's defense this year. Offensively, Marc Bulger is coming off his worst season as a pro, throwing just 11 TDs and 15 INTs (he had a 59-31 ratio the previous three seasons) with a QB rating of only 70.3 (his rating had been over 90.0 in all but ONE of his previous five years). The OL was a mess in '07, using almost 20 different combos and it opens this year banged up, as well. Issac Bruce left as a FA for the 49ers and Tory Holt is another year older. Steven Jackson held out almost all of training camp and that's after a season in which his rushing yards dropped from 1,528 to 1,0002 and his receiving numbers fell from 90 catches for 806 yards to 38 catches for 271 yards. Most feel Philly's pass rush will be better this year and let's note that the Rams' troubled OL allowed 48 sacks last year. Philly has a very good LB corps and with Samuel joining CBs Sheldon Brown and ex-Pro Bowler Lito Sheppard plus Brian Dawkins and Quintin Mikell returning as the safeties, this is an outstanding unit. Jackson figures to be slow "rounding into shape" (remember Larry Johnson after his similar holdout LY with KC?) and Bulger looks "shell-shocked" these days, much like Kurt Warner in his last days with the Rams. The Rams have really struggled at home these last three seasons (8-16 SU and ATS) but they haven't exactly been "road warriors" since their last Super Bowl appearance (in '01) either, going 16-32 SU and 17-31 ATS away from home the last six seasons. They are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in those last six season-openers since appearing in the Super Bowl and the "Greatest Show on Turf" is 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games on grass fields. The Eagles visit Dallas next week and host the Steelers in Week 3, so they won't allow this "winning opportunity" to slip away here.
Philadelphia Eagles
Kelso Sturgeon
Chairman's Club
Jacksonville-3 15 units
Best Bets Club
10 units Indy -9.5
4 units Houston +6.5
3 units Jets -3
Chairman's Club
Jacksonville-3 15 units
Best Bets Club
10 units Indy -9.5
4 units Houston +6.5
3 units Jets -3
PowerPlaywins
Power Plays
NFL
Jets/Dolphins over 36
Arizona/49ers over 42
Carolina +9.5
Rams +8.5
MLB
Cubs -125 (Marshall)
Power Plays
NFL
Jets/Dolphins over 36
Arizona/49ers over 42
Carolina +9.5
Rams +8.5
MLB
Cubs -125 (Marshall)
EAST COAST SPORTS CONSULTANTS
WILLIE "D" (ECSC)
Elite - TENNESSEE
"LEGS" DIAMOND (ECSC)
Top Rated Bookie Ball Buster Play St Louis+9
RANDY MITCHEL(ECSC)
Platinum - MIAMI
WILLIE "D" (ECSC)
Elite - TENNESSEE
"LEGS" DIAMOND (ECSC)
Top Rated Bookie Ball Buster Play St Louis+9
RANDY MITCHEL(ECSC)
Platinum - MIAMI
BRANDON LANG
20 Dime
SEAHAWKS
5 Dime
PATRIOTS
Hold off on these until further notice
20 Dime
SEAHAWKS
5 Dime
PATRIOTS
Hold off on these until further notice
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EZ WINNERS
NFL
5 STAR: (466) BUFFALO (-1.5) over Seattle
(Risking $550 to win $500)
12PM Central Time
3 STAR: (472) CLEVELAND (+6) over Dallas
(Risking $330 to win $300)
3:15PM Central Time
2 STAR: (456) MIAMI (+3) over New York Jets
(Risking $220 to win $200)
12PM Central Time
2 STAR: (459) HOUSTON (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH
(Risking $220 to win $200)
12PM Central Time
2 STAR: (476) SAN FRANCISCO (+2.5) over Arizona
(Risking $220 to win $200)
3:15PM Central Time
MLB
1 STAR: (961) HOUSTON (+$121) over Colorado
(Listing Rodriguez only)
(Risking $100 to win $121)
2:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (971) DETROIT (+$155) over Minnesota
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $155)
1:10PM Central Time
NFL
5 STAR: (466) BUFFALO (-1.5) over Seattle
(Risking $550 to win $500)
12PM Central Time
3 STAR: (472) CLEVELAND (+6) over Dallas
(Risking $330 to win $300)
3:15PM Central Time
2 STAR: (456) MIAMI (+3) over New York Jets
(Risking $220 to win $200)
12PM Central Time
2 STAR: (459) HOUSTON (+6.5) over PITTSBURGH
(Risking $220 to win $200)
12PM Central Time
2 STAR: (476) SAN FRANCISCO (+2.5) over Arizona
(Risking $220 to win $200)
3:15PM Central Time
MLB
1 STAR: (961) HOUSTON (+$121) over Colorado
(Listing Rodriguez only)
(Risking $100 to win $121)
2:05PM Central Time
1 STAR: (971) DETROIT (+$155) over Minnesota
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $155)
1:10PM Central Time
Dave Malinsky
4* Kc/New Engl Under 46.5
4* Carolina/SD Under 42.5
4* Atlanta 3
3* Phily/SF Teaser
6* NYY RL -1.5
4* Tampa/Toronto Under 8.5
Jeff Money
(nfl) Steelers -6.5 (pod)
(nfl) Billis -1.5
(nfl) Chargers -9
(nfl) Colts -9.5
(mlb) Yanks -1.5, -120
Cajun-Sports
NFL Executive Report
Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: 5* Houston Texans +6
Houston takes to the highway to begin the 2008 NFL campaign. The road has been very unkind to this Texans team in the past and we believe that is one of the reasons we are getting almost a touchdown in this contest.
The Texans had six road losses last season and they averaged losing those contests by more than two touchdowns per game. But that was last season and this is possibly another reason we are catching almost a touchdown in this game.
Those losses came when the Texans were without their potent QB/WR tandem of Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. They were also struggling with depth at RB and were considerably banged up in the defensive secondary. All these issues no longer exist.
With Schaub and Johnson on the field the Texans posted a record of 6-3. They were also 3-1 SU and ATS with an average final score of 24 to 15 in those four games where Johnson played the entire game.
Matt Schaub averaged 250 yards passing per game with 66.4% completions for a 7-3 TD/INT ratio when Andre Johnson played. Johnson had twenty-three receptions and averaged 18.2 yards per catch in those games. This is a much more talented offense when those two are in the game and they have a solid core of receivers set to take the field this season.
Pittsburgh on the other hand is living off the past and has not been an elite team for a while now. The Steelers are dealing with a revamped offensive line and the loss of Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca will only add to their troubles up front. He was not only a force on the field but a leader as well.
The Steelers ended last season by losing four of their last five contests. Pittsburgh ?s offensive line had too many holes and allowed Big Ben to hit the turf 47 times last season. The offensive line at Pittsburgh has been forever known as their pillar of strength but that is no longer the case. That bodes well for Texans defensive end Mario Williams, who is coming off a season in which he registered 14 sacks.
Even though the Steelers defensive numbers looked like the Steelers of years past if we dig a little deeper we see they gave up 29 points per game during their last five games last season. They allowed the Jaguars to score 31 on them at home in the first round of the playoffs last year.
Houston is a potential sleeper team to watch out for in HC Gary Kubiak?s 2nd season. Health issues plagued his club in ?07, yet they still managed a franchise best 8-8 SU & 8-8 ATS finish. Incidentally, the only other time the Texans played in Pittsburgh , in ?02, they walked away with a 24-6 road win as a 14-point dog.
Our Team Performance Ratings (TPR) shows Houston with a 2.9 point advantage in this contest. Our Player Performance Ratings (PPR) also show the Texans with a 1.34 point edge in Sunday?s match up.
Finally data base research has uncovered a system that tells us to Play Against any NFL team from last season that outscored their opponents by 7 or more points per game, 61-28 ATS the last ten years.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* HOUSTON TEXANS +6
Carolina Panthers vs. San Diego Chargers
Prediction: 4* Carolina Panthers + 9
The Carolina Panthers make the long trip west to start the 08 season. The road has been kind to this Panthers team over the years and we expect another solid performance from this Panther squad today.
The Carolina Panthers have cashed over sixty-six percent of the time when catching points under Head Coach John Fox. He has been the best underdog coach in the league by far and we have his team catching almost double-digits to open the season.
His team will face one of the best in the league but they are not without problems. First the injury bug has become ever prevalent, with Shawne Merriman suffering from a serious knee injury; center Nick Hardwick out with a foot injury, tight-end Antonio Gates still bothered by a toe injury from last season and QB Philip Rivers who had off-season knee surgery.
The loss of Hardwick could be monumental to their rushing attack. Hardwick is expected to miss at least 4 weeks and his injury could be a huge problem if the past is any indication. Hardwick is the Chargers best linemen and he has missed 9 games the last 4 seasons. In those 9 games the Chargers have averaged just 3.6 yards per rush on 230 rushing plays and this came against teams that average allowing 4 yards per rush.
A huge plus for the Panthers is the return of QB Jake Delhomme, although he is not considered a premier QB in the league he is head and shoulders above what they were forced to put on the field last season without him. In fact he had thrown eight touchdown passes and only one interception before suffering a season ending injury during Week Three. He averaged 308 yards passing per game and scored 27, 21 and 27 points in those three contests.
The Panthers commitment to the rushing attack during the preseason was obvious as they had 107 rushing attempts for an average of 4.8 yards per carry. They made wholesale changes on their offensive line during the off-season and acquired rookie RB Jonathan Stewart to partner with DeAngelo Williams in the back-field.
Power Angle: Carolina has been money in the bank when installed as an underdog and Delhomme is under center, posting a record of 22-5 ATS.
Power System: Play Against NFL teams that outscored opponents by 7 or more points per game during last season, 61-28 ATS the last ten seasons.
Our Team Performance Ratings (TPR) show the Panthers with a 1.3 point advantage in this game. Our Player Performance Ratings (PPR) show Carolina with a 0.97 point edge in Sunday?s match up with the Chargers.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* CAROLINA PANTHERS +9
St. Louis Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: 4* Philadelphia Eagles -7.5
The Rams will open their 2008 campaign on the road at Philadelphia who many believe will be in the fight for the NFC Championship this season.
The Philadelphia Eagles were better than their 8-8 record last season and they?ll be a better team this season with key off-season acquisitions and both sides of the ball healthy for the most part.
The Eagles were solid on defense last season allowing only 5.2 yards per play which was better than the league overall average by .2 yards per play. The Eagles defensive unit will be better this season with Asante Samuel coming over in free agency from New England . Samuel allowed just 6 yards per pass attempt against him last season and he has sixteen interceptions over the last two seasons. Samuel will team with solid CB Sheldon Brown, while former star Lito Sheppard will be one of the league?s best nickel backs.
The Eagles rushing attack has been one of the leagues best the last two seasons, averaging 5.1 yards per rush in 2006 and 4.9 yards per rush in 2007. With Brian Westbrook and backup Correll Buckhalter both back, along with quarterback Donovan McNabb who averaged 6.4 yards per rush on thirty-seven rushing plays for 238 yards last season, the Eagles should once again have one of the league?s best rushing attacks.
Westbrook is coming off a monster season, leading the team with 1,333 yards rushing and 90 receptions to go with 12 touchdowns. With two consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, Westbrook appears to have put to rest concerns about his durability despite his 5-10 frame.
The Rams suffered last season from the injury bug on their offensive line early and never really recovered. The Rams were forced to start 13 different linemen during the season and no five-man unit started more than three games in a row. The once powerful Rams offense averaged only 4.7 yards per play during the 07 season.
St. Louis knew going into the 2007 season that they had problems on the defensive side of the ball but they held out hope that their offense could overcome their shortcomings which of course never happened. The Rams defense surrendered the second-most points in franchise history.
We look for the Rams defense to be improved this season especially with cornerbacks Fakhir Brown and Tye Hill healthy. With Hill and Brown back at the corners and DE Leonard Little back in the lineup after missing the final nine games of last season we expect a much improved Rams defensive unit. Even with those players returning they will not be able to stop this Eagles offensive unit on Sunday.
The Eagles with their starting 22 and four or five solid backups appear to be one of the best teams in the NFL heading into this season, with a good offense, a good defense, and improved special teams.
One area where the Eagles need improvement over last season is in the turnover department where they were a -8 last year. QB McNabb has one of the lowest career interception rates in league history, he only threw seven picks last season but his backup AJ Freeley threw 8 INT?s on just 103 passes last year. With the acquisition of Samuel at CB they should be able to make up some ground in the turnover department this year and end up in positive territory.
Power Angles: ST LOUIS is 7-19 ATS against NFC East division opponents since 1992. ST LOUIS is 21-37 ATS as a road underdog since 1992.
With the Eagles edge on offense it triggers an angle that could possibly have an impact on the outcome of this contest. The angle tells us the Rams are 1-13 ATS in road games when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards since 1992.
Our Team Performance Ratings (TPR) show the Eagles with a 6.7 point advantage over the Rams in today?s contest. Our Player Performance Ratings (PPR) show the Eagles with a 4.81 point advantage over the Rams in today?s match up.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -7.5
Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: 3* Indianapolis Colts -9.5
The first Sunday Night NFL Game of the Week on NBC is a rematch of Super Bowl 41 where the first Manning got his ring. One difference in this contest will be the absence of former starter Rex Grossman at QB for the Bears; he has lost his job to Kyle Orton.
The Bears did nothing to fix their terrible offense, so they are likely to waste good efforts by their defense and special teams on the way to a mediocre season. Chicago averaged only 4.6 yards per play in 2007 and they released their most effective quarterback, Brian Griese. Griese averaged a solid 6.2 yards per pass on 273 pass plays while Rex Grossman averaged a horrible 4.9 yards per pass play and Kyle Orton averaged 5.7 yards per pass play in the final 3 games of the season.
Taking a closer look at Orton?s numbers we see that his average of 5.7 yards per pass play was really worse than first thought. Those numbers came against teams that average allowing over 6.5 yards per pass play on the season. His numbers were well below the league average.
The Bears offensive line is one of the worst in the league and they only averaged 3.2 yards per rush last season and we doubt there is much improvement this year even with Adrian Peterson taking over as their feature back.
The Indianapolis Colts could very well be the best team in the league this season, bypassing the crowd favorite New England Patriots. The Colts out-gained their opponents 5.9 yards per play to 4.8 yards per play despite leading the NFL in starter games lost due to injuries.
Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison make up one of the most imposing wide receiver corps in football, while second-year receiver Anthony Gonzalez appears primed for a breakout season.
Harrison 's days as an elite wide-out may be numbered and his durability is in question since the 36-year-old played just five games due to a sprained left knee in 2007. While he was out, Wayne became Manning's most potent target. Wayne already had been very productive the last few years, but Harrison 's absence was a contributing factor in his NFL-best 1,510 yards last season.
Tight end Dallas Clark is also always dangerous in the slot and third-year running back Joseph Addai complements the offensive attack. In fact, Addai can become the first running back in Colts history to rush for at least 1,000 yards in each of his first three seasons in the league.
Indy will field a very strong defensive squad this season led by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders. The Colts defense lost run-stuffer DT McFarland before the season even started last year and pass rushing specialist DE Dwight Freeney missed the last eight games. Although through week ten of the season which was the last game Freeney played, the Colts defense only allowed their opponents 4.6 yards per play when the average team would have gained 5.5 yards per play. They are certainly a solid defensive unit when both of these players are on the field.
The Colts have too much firepower on offense even with Manning a bit rusty and a very strong defensive team will harass Orton and the Bears all evening. The combination of these factors can lead to only one conclusion and that?s a Colts win and cover.
Power Angle: INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Power System: In Game 1, play ON an AFC favorite of more than 5 points with a
TOTAL of 35+ points vs. a non-divisional opponent. 10-0 ATS since 2001
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -9.5
Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns
Prediction: 4* Dallas / Cleveland UNDER 49
The Cowboys who many have pegged as the NFC representative for the Super Bowl this season travel to face a Cleveland team coming off a surprising 2007 campaign.
The Browns finished sixth in scoring a year ago behind Anderson ?s twenty-nine touchdowns. They also got quite a bit of production out of Lewis and Edwards who had over 1200 yards receiving and sixteen touchdowns.
The Browns won?t surprise anyone this season and their starting offensive unit didn?t play a single series together during the preseason. Their lack of playing time and the fact that the ?Boys? defense will be ready for the Browns offensive attack leads us to believe this will be a low scoring affair.
The Cowboys have their fair share of offensive talent but they spent much of the preseason mugging for the cameras instead of working on their playbook. They will also be without LG Kosier who has a fracture in his foot which will keep him sidelined for this contest.
The Boys lack depth at wide receiver with Hurd and Austin who are both dealing with very painful high ankle sprains.
Both teams enter this contest with no real offensive continuity and that is one of the most important components to any successful offensive team.
Data base research has uncovered a system that tells us to Play Under in Week One of the NFL Season when the total is more than 45 points. The record for this system is 21-5 Under since 2001 and a perfect 10-0 Under the last three seasons. Not only is this system profitable but the average total in the qualifying games falls under by 13 points per game.
We also know that Week One road favorites of four or more points have gone Under the posted total at a 15-0 rate since 2003.
The combination of fundamental, situational and technical support for the Under in this contest makes this our Top NFL Total Play of the Week. We are playing the Dallas / Cleveland game to fall well below the posted total.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* DALLAS / CLEVELAND UNDER 49
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
Prediction: 3* Jacksonville / Tennessee UNDER 37
Jacksonville opens the 2008 Season against divisional rival Tennessee on the road. These two teams play a similar type of football, they play tough defense and ground it out on offense.
The Titans opened the 2007 season by going into Jacksonville and defeating the Jags 13 to 10 as a road underdog. They accomplished that feat by banging it out on the ground as they had a 282 to 75 rushing advantage in that contest.
In their second meeting of the 07 season the Jags came away with the road win 28 to 13. In that game the Jags were without starting QB Garrard who had missed the two previous weeks with an injury.
We expect another hard fought contest that will be played and won in the trenches. This type of contest usually produces an ?Under? result and we are counting on that as we make this a 3* Under selection in the Jacksonville / Tennessee contest on Sunday.
Data base research has uncovered a system that tells us to Play Under in Week One of the NFL season if our road favorite won at least eleven games in the previous year. This system has produced an Under record of 22-8 Under over the last seventeen seasons.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* JACKSONVILLE / TENNESSEE UNDER 37
NFL Executive Report
Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: 5* Houston Texans +6
Houston takes to the highway to begin the 2008 NFL campaign. The road has been very unkind to this Texans team in the past and we believe that is one of the reasons we are getting almost a touchdown in this contest.
The Texans had six road losses last season and they averaged losing those contests by more than two touchdowns per game. But that was last season and this is possibly another reason we are catching almost a touchdown in this game.
Those losses came when the Texans were without their potent QB/WR tandem of Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson. They were also struggling with depth at RB and were considerably banged up in the defensive secondary. All these issues no longer exist.
With Schaub and Johnson on the field the Texans posted a record of 6-3. They were also 3-1 SU and ATS with an average final score of 24 to 15 in those four games where Johnson played the entire game.
Matt Schaub averaged 250 yards passing per game with 66.4% completions for a 7-3 TD/INT ratio when Andre Johnson played. Johnson had twenty-three receptions and averaged 18.2 yards per catch in those games. This is a much more talented offense when those two are in the game and they have a solid core of receivers set to take the field this season.
Pittsburgh on the other hand is living off the past and has not been an elite team for a while now. The Steelers are dealing with a revamped offensive line and the loss of Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca will only add to their troubles up front. He was not only a force on the field but a leader as well.
The Steelers ended last season by losing four of their last five contests. Pittsburgh ?s offensive line had too many holes and allowed Big Ben to hit the turf 47 times last season. The offensive line at Pittsburgh has been forever known as their pillar of strength but that is no longer the case. That bodes well for Texans defensive end Mario Williams, who is coming off a season in which he registered 14 sacks.
Even though the Steelers defensive numbers looked like the Steelers of years past if we dig a little deeper we see they gave up 29 points per game during their last five games last season. They allowed the Jaguars to score 31 on them at home in the first round of the playoffs last year.
Houston is a potential sleeper team to watch out for in HC Gary Kubiak?s 2nd season. Health issues plagued his club in ?07, yet they still managed a franchise best 8-8 SU & 8-8 ATS finish. Incidentally, the only other time the Texans played in Pittsburgh , in ?02, they walked away with a 24-6 road win as a 14-point dog.
Our Team Performance Ratings (TPR) shows Houston with a 2.9 point advantage in this contest. Our Player Performance Ratings (PPR) also show the Texans with a 1.34 point edge in Sunday?s match up.
Finally data base research has uncovered a system that tells us to Play Against any NFL team from last season that outscored their opponents by 7 or more points per game, 61-28 ATS the last ten years.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* HOUSTON TEXANS +6
Carolina Panthers vs. San Diego Chargers
Prediction: 4* Carolina Panthers + 9
The Carolina Panthers make the long trip west to start the 08 season. The road has been kind to this Panthers team over the years and we expect another solid performance from this Panther squad today.
The Carolina Panthers have cashed over sixty-six percent of the time when catching points under Head Coach John Fox. He has been the best underdog coach in the league by far and we have his team catching almost double-digits to open the season.
His team will face one of the best in the league but they are not without problems. First the injury bug has become ever prevalent, with Shawne Merriman suffering from a serious knee injury; center Nick Hardwick out with a foot injury, tight-end Antonio Gates still bothered by a toe injury from last season and QB Philip Rivers who had off-season knee surgery.
The loss of Hardwick could be monumental to their rushing attack. Hardwick is expected to miss at least 4 weeks and his injury could be a huge problem if the past is any indication. Hardwick is the Chargers best linemen and he has missed 9 games the last 4 seasons. In those 9 games the Chargers have averaged just 3.6 yards per rush on 230 rushing plays and this came against teams that average allowing 4 yards per rush.
A huge plus for the Panthers is the return of QB Jake Delhomme, although he is not considered a premier QB in the league he is head and shoulders above what they were forced to put on the field last season without him. In fact he had thrown eight touchdown passes and only one interception before suffering a season ending injury during Week Three. He averaged 308 yards passing per game and scored 27, 21 and 27 points in those three contests.
The Panthers commitment to the rushing attack during the preseason was obvious as they had 107 rushing attempts for an average of 4.8 yards per carry. They made wholesale changes on their offensive line during the off-season and acquired rookie RB Jonathan Stewart to partner with DeAngelo Williams in the back-field.
Power Angle: Carolina has been money in the bank when installed as an underdog and Delhomme is under center, posting a record of 22-5 ATS.
Power System: Play Against NFL teams that outscored opponents by 7 or more points per game during last season, 61-28 ATS the last ten seasons.
Our Team Performance Ratings (TPR) show the Panthers with a 1.3 point advantage in this game. Our Player Performance Ratings (PPR) show Carolina with a 0.97 point edge in Sunday?s match up with the Chargers.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* CAROLINA PANTHERS +9
St. Louis Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: 4* Philadelphia Eagles -7.5
The Rams will open their 2008 campaign on the road at Philadelphia who many believe will be in the fight for the NFC Championship this season.
The Philadelphia Eagles were better than their 8-8 record last season and they?ll be a better team this season with key off-season acquisitions and both sides of the ball healthy for the most part.
The Eagles were solid on defense last season allowing only 5.2 yards per play which was better than the league overall average by .2 yards per play. The Eagles defensive unit will be better this season with Asante Samuel coming over in free agency from New England . Samuel allowed just 6 yards per pass attempt against him last season and he has sixteen interceptions over the last two seasons. Samuel will team with solid CB Sheldon Brown, while former star Lito Sheppard will be one of the league?s best nickel backs.
The Eagles rushing attack has been one of the leagues best the last two seasons, averaging 5.1 yards per rush in 2006 and 4.9 yards per rush in 2007. With Brian Westbrook and backup Correll Buckhalter both back, along with quarterback Donovan McNabb who averaged 6.4 yards per rush on thirty-seven rushing plays for 238 yards last season, the Eagles should once again have one of the league?s best rushing attacks.
Westbrook is coming off a monster season, leading the team with 1,333 yards rushing and 90 receptions to go with 12 touchdowns. With two consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, Westbrook appears to have put to rest concerns about his durability despite his 5-10 frame.
The Rams suffered last season from the injury bug on their offensive line early and never really recovered. The Rams were forced to start 13 different linemen during the season and no five-man unit started more than three games in a row. The once powerful Rams offense averaged only 4.7 yards per play during the 07 season.
St. Louis knew going into the 2007 season that they had problems on the defensive side of the ball but they held out hope that their offense could overcome their shortcomings which of course never happened. The Rams defense surrendered the second-most points in franchise history.
We look for the Rams defense to be improved this season especially with cornerbacks Fakhir Brown and Tye Hill healthy. With Hill and Brown back at the corners and DE Leonard Little back in the lineup after missing the final nine games of last season we expect a much improved Rams defensive unit. Even with those players returning they will not be able to stop this Eagles offensive unit on Sunday.
The Eagles with their starting 22 and four or five solid backups appear to be one of the best teams in the NFL heading into this season, with a good offense, a good defense, and improved special teams.
One area where the Eagles need improvement over last season is in the turnover department where they were a -8 last year. QB McNabb has one of the lowest career interception rates in league history, he only threw seven picks last season but his backup AJ Freeley threw 8 INT?s on just 103 passes last year. With the acquisition of Samuel at CB they should be able to make up some ground in the turnover department this year and end up in positive territory.
Power Angles: ST LOUIS is 7-19 ATS against NFC East division opponents since 1992. ST LOUIS is 21-37 ATS as a road underdog since 1992.
With the Eagles edge on offense it triggers an angle that could possibly have an impact on the outcome of this contest. The angle tells us the Rams are 1-13 ATS in road games when they are outgained by their opponents by 50-100 yards since 1992.
Our Team Performance Ratings (TPR) show the Eagles with a 6.7 point advantage over the Rams in today?s contest. Our Player Performance Ratings (PPR) show the Eagles with a 4.81 point advantage over the Rams in today?s match up.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -7.5
Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: 3* Indianapolis Colts -9.5
The first Sunday Night NFL Game of the Week on NBC is a rematch of Super Bowl 41 where the first Manning got his ring. One difference in this contest will be the absence of former starter Rex Grossman at QB for the Bears; he has lost his job to Kyle Orton.
The Bears did nothing to fix their terrible offense, so they are likely to waste good efforts by their defense and special teams on the way to a mediocre season. Chicago averaged only 4.6 yards per play in 2007 and they released their most effective quarterback, Brian Griese. Griese averaged a solid 6.2 yards per pass on 273 pass plays while Rex Grossman averaged a horrible 4.9 yards per pass play and Kyle Orton averaged 5.7 yards per pass play in the final 3 games of the season.
Taking a closer look at Orton?s numbers we see that his average of 5.7 yards per pass play was really worse than first thought. Those numbers came against teams that average allowing over 6.5 yards per pass play on the season. His numbers were well below the league average.
The Bears offensive line is one of the worst in the league and they only averaged 3.2 yards per rush last season and we doubt there is much improvement this year even with Adrian Peterson taking over as their feature back.
The Indianapolis Colts could very well be the best team in the league this season, bypassing the crowd favorite New England Patriots. The Colts out-gained their opponents 5.9 yards per play to 4.8 yards per play despite leading the NFL in starter games lost due to injuries.
Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison make up one of the most imposing wide receiver corps in football, while second-year receiver Anthony Gonzalez appears primed for a breakout season.
Harrison 's days as an elite wide-out may be numbered and his durability is in question since the 36-year-old played just five games due to a sprained left knee in 2007. While he was out, Wayne became Manning's most potent target. Wayne already had been very productive the last few years, but Harrison 's absence was a contributing factor in his NFL-best 1,510 yards last season.
Tight end Dallas Clark is also always dangerous in the slot and third-year running back Joseph Addai complements the offensive attack. In fact, Addai can become the first running back in Colts history to rush for at least 1,000 yards in each of his first three seasons in the league.
Indy will field a very strong defensive squad this season led by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders. The Colts defense lost run-stuffer DT McFarland before the season even started last year and pass rushing specialist DE Dwight Freeney missed the last eight games. Although through week ten of the season which was the last game Freeney played, the Colts defense only allowed their opponents 4.6 yards per play when the average team would have gained 5.5 yards per play. They are certainly a solid defensive unit when both of these players are on the field.
The Colts have too much firepower on offense even with Manning a bit rusty and a very strong defensive team will harass Orton and the Bears all evening. The combination of these factors can lead to only one conclusion and that?s a Colts win and cover.
Power Angle: INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
Power System: In Game 1, play ON an AFC favorite of more than 5 points with a
TOTAL of 35+ points vs. a non-divisional opponent. 10-0 ATS since 2001
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -9.5
Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns
Prediction: 4* Dallas / Cleveland UNDER 49
The Cowboys who many have pegged as the NFC representative for the Super Bowl this season travel to face a Cleveland team coming off a surprising 2007 campaign.
The Browns finished sixth in scoring a year ago behind Anderson ?s twenty-nine touchdowns. They also got quite a bit of production out of Lewis and Edwards who had over 1200 yards receiving and sixteen touchdowns.
The Browns won?t surprise anyone this season and their starting offensive unit didn?t play a single series together during the preseason. Their lack of playing time and the fact that the ?Boys? defense will be ready for the Browns offensive attack leads us to believe this will be a low scoring affair.
The Cowboys have their fair share of offensive talent but they spent much of the preseason mugging for the cameras instead of working on their playbook. They will also be without LG Kosier who has a fracture in his foot which will keep him sidelined for this contest.
The Boys lack depth at wide receiver with Hurd and Austin who are both dealing with very painful high ankle sprains.
Both teams enter this contest with no real offensive continuity and that is one of the most important components to any successful offensive team.
Data base research has uncovered a system that tells us to Play Under in Week One of the NFL Season when the total is more than 45 points. The record for this system is 21-5 Under since 2001 and a perfect 10-0 Under the last three seasons. Not only is this system profitable but the average total in the qualifying games falls under by 13 points per game.
We also know that Week One road favorites of four or more points have gone Under the posted total at a 15-0 rate since 2003.
The combination of fundamental, situational and technical support for the Under in this contest makes this our Top NFL Total Play of the Week. We are playing the Dallas / Cleveland game to fall well below the posted total.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* DALLAS / CLEVELAND UNDER 49
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
Prediction: 3* Jacksonville / Tennessee UNDER 37
Jacksonville opens the 2008 Season against divisional rival Tennessee on the road. These two teams play a similar type of football, they play tough defense and ground it out on offense.
The Titans opened the 2007 season by going into Jacksonville and defeating the Jags 13 to 10 as a road underdog. They accomplished that feat by banging it out on the ground as they had a 282 to 75 rushing advantage in that contest.
In their second meeting of the 07 season the Jags came away with the road win 28 to 13. In that game the Jags were without starting QB Garrard who had missed the two previous weeks with an injury.
We expect another hard fought contest that will be played and won in the trenches. This type of contest usually produces an ?Under? result and we are counting on that as we make this a 3* Under selection in the Jacksonville / Tennessee contest on Sunday.
Data base research has uncovered a system that tells us to Play Under in Week One of the NFL season if our road favorite won at least eleven games in the previous year. This system has produced an Under record of 22-8 Under over the last seventeen seasons.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* JACKSONVILLE / TENNESSEE UNDER 37
YourWinningPicks
****BEST BET****PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-7.5)
VS. St. Louis Rams: The Eagles are in a great spot here against a Rams squad that is trying to put behind them an absolutely nightmare of a 2007 season. For St. Louis, injuries killed their hopes last season and served as a reminder that this team has a sever lack of depth. For the Eagles, they once again have the talent to make noise in the NFC and QB Donovan McNabb has looked great in preseason as he looks to remain healthy for the first time in three years. The line seems low here due to the major discrepancy in talent between the two teams so our only thought is that the lines makers are a little gun-shy out of the chute. This is a perfect opportunity to jump on a mistake and get the Eagles at a nice discount. This game will be decided on the lines as the Eagle pass rush will overwhelm a weak St. Louis O-line. QB Marc Bulger had major problems with sacks last season and he admittedly developed happy feet toward the end of 2007. That situation will unfold again here as the Eagles coast to an easy win. THE PICK: Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
****BEST BET****New York Jets (-3)
VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS: Great game with lots of built in drama as Dolphin QB Chad Pennington gets his chance for revenge against the team that pushed him aside for Brett Favre. The emotional factor will certainly fire up the home team here and the home underdog angle is always a betting angle to exploit. Miami will certainly be improved this year with the steady hand of Pennington leading the offense along with the return of star RB Ronnie Brown. In fact the Dolphins have the making of a good offense as Ricky Williams and new TE Anthony Fasano give this team some weaponry. The defense is where the problems will lie as Jason Taylor was traded away and Zach Thomas is now a Cowboy. The Jets should be able to fire away all game long underneath and bust runs up the gut with Thomas Jones and on the outside with Leon Washington. New York has the tools to make a run at a playoff spot and Favre gives this team a great deal of confidence heading into the season. The line is fair at -3 but it wouldn?t shock us in the least if Miami pulls this off what with the revenge angle being so strong here. However the Jets qualify in a very goof 26-11-2 ATS road scenario against a division foe that played less than .400 ball last season. Trends all point to the Jets but be wary here. THE PICK: New York Jets (-3)
0A
****STRONG OPINION****PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6.5)
VS. Houston Texans: The Steelers are the AFC?s version of the Seahawks as they come into the season overrated. Sure they are solid with QB Ben Roethlisberger and an emerging group of wideouts complementing a very good LB corps on defense. They have major issues on the offensive line however as they struggled terrible in that aspect last season and now are without All-Pro G Alan Faneca who left for the Jets. This will spell trouble against a Texans team who looks much improved on defense this year and can certainly rush the passer with star DE Mario Williams and DT Amobi Okoye. Along with MLB DeMeco Ryans, Houston has the look of a dominant defense in the making. Figure on Big Ben being in Big Trouble all game long as the green Steeler O-line has trouble containing the rush. That will limit the big play ability of WR Santonio Holmes who won?t have the time to get downfield and make big plays. The Texans are looking solid on offense also as QB Matt Schaub shows glimpses of star ability last season and will be complem ented with WR Andre Johnson who can lead the league in receptions if he stays healthy. The 6.5 is way too much to be giving to an improved team and to top it off, Houston qualifies in a 45-22-1 ATS underdog angle when facing a non-division foe and getting more than 6. THE PICK: Houston Texans (+6.5)
****STRONG OPINION****INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-9.5)
VS. Chicago Bears: Colts QB Peyton Manning looks like he will play after having an abscess removed during the preseason. He will once again lead an offense that is one of the NFL?s best and is expertly run. Manning will have four great options to throw to in star WR Reggie Wayne, TE Dallas Clark, emerging WR Anthony Gonzalez, and the returning from injury WR Marvin Harrison. Harrison?s return is huge in that the offense will be much tougher to contain with him on the field. Throw in the great running of Joseph Addai and the Colts are one of the bets units out there on offense. The defense on2 0the other hand struggled toward the end of last season due to injuries but star DE Dwight Freeney is back and S Bob Sanders looks like he is ready to go. When all hands are on deck, this is a very tough defense to score points on. The Bears certainly are no strangers when it comes to struggling to score points. Kyle Orton is in QB and rookie RB Matt Forte will run the ball. Not very scary. The defense is decent as there are big names up and down the roster but this is the same group that struggled badly toward the end of 2007. The Colts will be able to score no matter who they play and the Bears just don?t have the ability to hang tight. If Manning doesn?t play however then we pass. THE PICK Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)
****BEST BET****PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-7.5)
VS. St. Louis Rams: The Eagles are in a great spot here against a Rams squad that is trying to put behind them an absolutely nightmare of a 2007 season. For St. Louis, injuries killed their hopes last season and served as a reminder that this team has a sever lack of depth. For the Eagles, they once again have the talent to make noise in the NFC and QB Donovan McNabb has looked great in preseason as he looks to remain healthy for the first time in three years. The line seems low here due to the major discrepancy in talent between the two teams so our only thought is that the lines makers are a little gun-shy out of the chute. This is a perfect opportunity to jump on a mistake and get the Eagles at a nice discount. This game will be decided on the lines as the Eagle pass rush will overwhelm a weak St. Louis O-line. QB Marc Bulger had major problems with sacks last season and he admittedly developed happy feet toward the end of 2007. That situation will unfold again here as the Eagles coast to an easy win. THE PICK: Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
****BEST BET****New York Jets (-3)
VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS: Great game with lots of built in drama as Dolphin QB Chad Pennington gets his chance for revenge against the team that pushed him aside for Brett Favre. The emotional factor will certainly fire up the home team here and the home underdog angle is always a betting angle to exploit. Miami will certainly be improved this year with the steady hand of Pennington leading the offense along with the return of star RB Ronnie Brown. In fact the Dolphins have the making of a good offense as Ricky Williams and new TE Anthony Fasano give this team some weaponry. The defense is where the problems will lie as Jason Taylor was traded away and Zach Thomas is now a Cowboy. The Jets should be able to fire away all game long underneath and bust runs up the gut with Thomas Jones and on the outside with Leon Washington. New York has the tools to make a run at a playoff spot and Favre gives this team a great deal of confidence heading into the season. The line is fair at -3 but it wouldn?t shock us in the least if Miami pulls this off what with the revenge angle being so strong here. However the Jets qualify in a very goof 26-11-2 ATS road scenario against a division foe that played less than .400 ball last season. Trends all point to the Jets but be wary here. THE PICK: New York Jets (-3)
0A
****STRONG OPINION****PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6.5)
VS. Houston Texans: The Steelers are the AFC?s version of the Seahawks as they come into the season overrated. Sure they are solid with QB Ben Roethlisberger and an emerging group of wideouts complementing a very good LB corps on defense. They have major issues on the offensive line however as they struggled terrible in that aspect last season and now are without All-Pro G Alan Faneca who left for the Jets. This will spell trouble against a Texans team who looks much improved on defense this year and can certainly rush the passer with star DE Mario Williams and DT Amobi Okoye. Along with MLB DeMeco Ryans, Houston has the look of a dominant defense in the making. Figure on Big Ben being in Big Trouble all game long as the green Steeler O-line has trouble containing the rush. That will limit the big play ability of WR Santonio Holmes who won?t have the time to get downfield and make big plays. The Texans are looking solid on offense also as QB Matt Schaub shows glimpses of star ability last season and will be complem ented with WR Andre Johnson who can lead the league in receptions if he stays healthy. The 6.5 is way too much to be giving to an improved team and to top it off, Houston qualifies in a 45-22-1 ATS underdog angle when facing a non-division foe and getting more than 6. THE PICK: Houston Texans (+6.5)
****STRONG OPINION****INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-9.5)
VS. Chicago Bears: Colts QB Peyton Manning looks like he will play after having an abscess removed during the preseason. He will once again lead an offense that is one of the NFL?s best and is expertly run. Manning will have four great options to throw to in star WR Reggie Wayne, TE Dallas Clark, emerging WR Anthony Gonzalez, and the returning from injury WR Marvin Harrison. Harrison?s return is huge in that the offense will be much tougher to contain with him on the field. Throw in the great running of Joseph Addai and the Colts are one of the bets units out there on offense. The defense on2 0the other hand struggled toward the end of last season due to injuries but star DE Dwight Freeney is back and S Bob Sanders looks like he is ready to go. When all hands are on deck, this is a very tough defense to score points on. The Bears certainly are no strangers when it comes to struggling to score points. Kyle Orton is in QB and rookie RB Matt Forte will run the ball. Not very scary. The defense is decent as there are big names up and down the roster but this is the same group that struggled badly toward the end of 2007. The Colts will be able to score no matter who they play and the Bears just don?t have the ability to hang tight. If Manning doesn?t play however then we pass. THE PICK Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)
Northcoast Full Service Line
Overnight Chalk
Detroit Lions
Pro Play Of Week
Arizona Cards
NorthCoast
3 1/2 Cinn
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3 Under pats
Overnight Chalk
Detroit Lions
Pro Play Of Week
Arizona Cards
NorthCoast
3 1/2 Cinn
2 Carolina
3 Under pats
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The Prez
1:00PM ET NFL 3* Action New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins UNDER 36.0 (-110)
1:00PM ET NFL 3* Action Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens UNDER 38.5 (-110)
1:00PM ET NFL 3* Action Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 43.0 (-110)
1:00PM ET NFL 3* Action Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans UNDER 36.5 (-110)
1:00PM ET NFL 5* Best Seattle Sehawks vs Buffalo Bills UNDER 39.0 (-110)
4:15PM ET NFL 6* Top Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers OVER 41.5 (-110)
4:15PM ET NFL 3* Action Dallas Cowboys(-5.5 / -110) vs Cleveland Browns
8:15PM ET NFL 3* Action Chicago Bears vs Indianapolis Colts UNDER 44.0 (-110)
2:10PM ET MLB 5* Best Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals UNDER 8.0 (-115)
1:00PM ET NFL 3* Action New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins UNDER 36.0 (-110)
1:00PM ET NFL 3* Action Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens UNDER 38.5 (-110)
1:00PM ET NFL 3* Action Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 43.0 (-110)
1:00PM ET NFL 3* Action Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans UNDER 36.5 (-110)
1:00PM ET NFL 5* Best Seattle Sehawks vs Buffalo Bills UNDER 39.0 (-110)
4:15PM ET NFL 6* Top Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers OVER 41.5 (-110)
4:15PM ET NFL 3* Action Dallas Cowboys(-5.5 / -110) vs Cleveland Browns
8:15PM ET NFL 3* Action Chicago Bears vs Indianapolis Colts UNDER 44.0 (-110)
2:10PM ET MLB 5* Best Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals UNDER 8.0 (-115)
ALEX SMART
1:00PM ET NFL 3* Action Seattle Seahawks (1.0 / -110) vs Buffalo Bills
1:00PM ET NFL 3* Action Tennessee Titans (3.0 / -110) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00PM ET NFL 3* Action Atlanta Falcons (3.0 / -110) vs Detroit Lions
1:00PM ET NFL 4* Best Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3.5 / -110) vs New Orleans Saints
1:00PM ET NFL 3* Action Houston Texans (7.0 / -110) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
4:15PM ET NFL 3* Action Cleveland Browns (6.0 / -110) vs Dallas Cowboys
8:15PM ET NFL 3* Action Chicago Bears (10.0 / -110) vs Indianapolis
1:00PM ET NFL 3* Action Seattle Seahawks (1.0 / -110) vs Buffalo Bills
1:00PM ET NFL 3* Action Tennessee Titans (3.0 / -110) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00PM ET NFL 3* Action Atlanta Falcons (3.0 / -110) vs Detroit Lions
1:00PM ET NFL 4* Best Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3.5 / -110) vs New Orleans Saints
1:00PM ET NFL 3* Action Houston Texans (7.0 / -110) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
4:15PM ET NFL 3* Action Cleveland Browns (6.0 / -110) vs Dallas Cowboys
8:15PM ET NFL 3* Action Chicago Bears (10.0 / -110) vs Indianapolis