Drew Gordon
1. 200,000♦ Mavericks
2. 50,000♦ Indiana
1. Mavericks- Got to like the Mavericks in this spot for several reasons, but let's start with Jason Kidd. While its true they lost at San Antonio in their last road game, there's no question the Mavs are a better team with Jason Kidd. He was even better against Sacramento Friday, and I expect both Kidd and the Mavs will only improve as he gets more accustomed to their system and personnel. The fact he's matched up against the smaller Derek Fisher, could mean big problems for the Lakers this afternoon.
Second, if you saw the Mavericks play at San Antonio, is there any question they're one of the top teams in the West? They bring one of the better blends of offense and defense to the table, scoring 101 ppg, while allowing only 92 ppg over their last 5 games overall! They were a couple plays away from winning outright against the Spurs, a team I believe to be superior to the Lakers, despite the Gasol trade.
Match up-wise, neither team can cover the others superstar, as both Kobe and Nowitzki will run rampant over their defenders. Also, you can bet both Gasol and Josh Howard will control their match ups as well. The difference in this match up is two-fold: A. the Mavs are the deeper team & B. They have a huge edge at the point guard position with Kidd over Fisher. Its those two edges that propel the Mavs to the cover in this one, and even possibly win outright.
Bottom line, Dallas is the play here, as I just don't see the Lakers beating them by that many points. In fact, as mentioned above, it wouldn't surprise me if the Mavs won outright here, especially after the way they played at San Antonio. Make no mistake, The Mavs acquired Jason Kidd for exactly this kind of match up, and I say the veteran point guard makes the difference today, as Dallas grab the cash in this one!
Take the Mavericks plus the points over the L.A. Lakers as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Indiana- A couple close ones for the Hoosiers as they adapt to life without coach Sampson, but I believe they're ready for a bigtime match up this afternoon in East Lansing and here's w
Pop in the tape of their last meeting, and you'll see why the Spartans are in trouble here this afternoon. Despite the fact the Hoosiers got almost nothing from D.J. White and Armon Bassett, Indiana's offense still rolled. Why? Two words: Eric Gordon. The sensational freshman was unstoppable in delivering one of his biggest games of the season - 28 points on 9 of 15 shooting! You know damn well White and Bassett will not go quiet once again in this one, while stopping Gordon is out of the question for the Spartans guards.
Herein lies the problem for the Spartans, as they rely on their defense to make up for their offensive shortcomings. True, Michigan State is better offensively in East Lansing, but not good enough to cover the number in this one. Remember guys, Indiana can play defense too, allowing just 65 ppg on 39% shooting away this season!
Finally, for all the hoopla surrounding the Spartans 17-0 SU record at home, they've been consistently overvalued at the Breslin Center, going just 2-7 ATS over their last 9 home games. Indiana meanwhile, is 6-4 ATS on the road, and that includes the scare at Northwestern, which we can chalk up to the emotions of losing their coach. Note, Indiana is also only a 1/2 game back from Wisconsin and Purdue in the Big Ten, so you better believe they've got plenty of motivation to win here today.
Bottom line, Michigan State may keep their perfect SU record at home, but they'll need to win dogfight to do it. Indiana has the match ups, the motivation, and the defense to keep this game competitive, and I say that's exactly what they do this afternoon in East Lansing.
Take Indiana plus the points over Michigan State in this Big Ten match up.
Tonight's Games...
1. 50,000♦ Maryland
2. 50,000♦ Pacers
1. Maryland- Great spot for the Terrapins, as Clemson is coming off their 20th win of the season, and will be returning to the road, where they've proven much more vulnerable. If you saw them play at Florida State in their last road game, then you know exactly the kind of inconsistent effort this Tigers team is capable of on the highway, losing outright 64-55 as 3'-point favorites.
So what happens to the Tigers when they travel? Apparently, they forget to pack their defense, allowing 73 ppg on 42% shooting this season. Those numbers pail in comparison to the kind of attacking defense they're going to see from Maryland tonight at home, allowing 64 ppg on 37% shooting, which is outstanding by anyone's measure.
Match ups also slightly favor the Terrapins, as they've got the best player on the court in G Grievis Vasquez. Not to mention, fowards Gist (31 points 11 boards in last game) and Osby are more than capable of matching up with the Tigers frontcourt of Booker and Mays.
Finally, there's two much over-looked factors I want to discuss: A. This is the Terrapins final home game, marking senior forwards Gist and Osby last regular season game in front of the home crowd, and you better believe they'll be looking to impress. And B. In a game expected to be very competitive, don't be surprised if Clemson's inability to shoot free throws (62% on season) dooms them in the end. Terrapins roll in this one!
Take Maryland at home over Clemson in this ACC showdown.
2. Pacers- I gave you the Bucks as 50K bonus play covering against the Spurs in Milwaukee last night, but tonight things are much different. For starters, this game is on the road, where the Bucks have been garbage all season, going just 6-25 SU & 12-18 ATS. They've lost their last 3 road games, all by double-digits, including an ugly one at New Jersey Thursday, getting blown out 120-106... What makes you think tonight will be any different?!
With Danny Granger returning to the lineup, and the Pacers coming off an impressive outright road win at Toronto 122-111 as an 11-point dog, Indiana is poised to get the solid win here tonight. So how do they do it? With offense, averaging 106 ppg over their last 5 games! How in the hell do you expect the Bucks to keep pace, when they can only muster about 93 ppg on the road this season?!
We're all aware of Milwaukee's shortcoming on defense, but lately, they've taken it to a whole other level of mediocrity, allowing a mind-boggling 110 ppg on 48% shooting over their last 5 games! If the Pacers can score 122 points at Toronto, without Granger, then they sure as hell can light up this struggling Bucks defense.
Finally, the last factor we have to discuss is fatigue, as the Bucks are coming off a hard-fought loss to the Spurs last night. Milwaukee is 7-8 ATS on no rest, but in this case, against a high-octane Pacers offense, their tired legs will really cost them. In the end, Milwaukee is terrible on the road, and while indiana is no powerhouse, they're more than capable of taking this Bucks team behind the woodshed in this one. A tired, road-weary Bucks team doesn't stand a chance at Conseco Fieldhouse tonight!
Take the Pacers comfortably over the Bucks in this NBA match up.
