Sports Advisors
(2) Texas (31-6, 17-13-1 ATS) vs. (1) Memphis (36-1, 16-19-2 ATS)
Memphis rolled into the Elite Eight for the third straight year courtesy of Friday?s 92-74 rout of fifth-seeded Michigan State, easily cashing as a 5?-point favorite. The top-seeded Tigers closed the first half on a 15-0 run to take a 50-20 lead into halftime and never looked back in winning their 10th straight game. Memphis also covered the spread for the first time in the Tournament.
Prior to Memphis? demolition of Michigan State, Texas handled Stanford wire-to-wire, cruising to an 82-62 victory as a one-point favorite. The second-seeded Longhorns, who have reached the Elite Eight for just the second time this decade, used a 20-3 second-half run to separate from the Cardinal and improve to 15-2 in their last 17 games (11-5-1 ATS).
Memphis? season has ended in this round the last two years, as the Tigers got crushed by Ohio State in last year?s Elite Eight 92-76 as a two-point underdog after suffering a 50-45 defeat to UCLA as a 2?-point favorite in 2006. The Tigers haven?t reached the Final Four since 1985.
The last time the Longhorns got this far in the Tournament was in 2006, when they lost to LSU 70-60 in overtime as a three-point favorite. Texas hasn?t advanced to the Final Four since 2003.
These teams played a home-and-home series in 2005 and 2006, with Texas winning both games by scores of 74-67 at home (failing to cash as a 13?-point favorite) and 69-58 on the road (covering as a 5?-point ?dog).
The Tigers are just 3-7 ATS during their 10-game winning streak, and they?ve cashed in only five of their last 18 games, all as a favorite. Additionally, they?re on negative ATS runs of 3-5 in Tournament play, 2-4 after a SU win, 1-4 outside Conference USA and 0-6 after a spread-cover, as they haven?t cashed in consecutive games since late January. On the bright side, Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five against the Big 12 and 4-1 ATS in its last five Tournament games when favored by less than seven points.
Texas is on pointspread runs of 8-3-1 at neutral venues, 8-3 as an underdog, 21-10-1 after a SU win and 4-1 against Conference USA. The only blemish is its 1-4 ATS slump when playing on Sundays.
Memphis is averaging 85.3 points per game on 49.4 percent shooting in the Tournament, while giving up 70.3 ppg and allowing foes to shoot 45.4 percent from the field. The Tigers have outrebounded all three opponents in the tourney and are plus-28 on the boards through three games.
Texas is putting up 77 ppg on 47.5 percent shooting in this event, but the Longhorns have really shined on defense, allowing just 62.7 ppg while limiting opponents to 34 percent shooting. Texas is plus-17 in rebounding, though Stanford had a slight 40-37 edge on the boards Friday.
The over is 4-0 in Memphis? last four Tournament games (3-0 this year) and 4-1 in its last five non-conference games. Also, for Texas, the over is on streaks of 7-3 as an underdog, 7-0-1 as a neutral-site pup and 5-2 on Sundays. However, the under is 7-0 in the Tigers? last seven against the Big 12 and 5-1 in the Tigers? last six on Sundays. Finally, the two meetings between these schools in 2005 and 2006 stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
MIDWEST REGION
(10) Davidson (29-6, 22-11 ATS) vs. (1) Kansas (34-3, 21-14 ATS)
Kansas had no trouble at all with 12th-seeded Villanova on Friday, jumping out to a 41-22 halftime lead and coasting to a 72-57 victory as a 12-point favorite. The Jayhawks, who are back in the Elite Eight for the second straight year, have won 10 in a row, going 7-3 ATS (4-0 ATS in the last four).
Davidson?s magical Tournament run continued with Friday?s 73-56 rout of No. 3 seed Wisconsin as a five-point underdog. The Wildcats, who own the nation?s longest winning streak at 25 in a row, once again got a huge game from shooting guard Stephen Curry, who had 33 points, four assists, four steals and three rebounds. Curry combined for 70 points in Davidson?s first two tourney wins over Gonzaga and Georgetown.
The Jayhawks, who lost 68-55 to UCLA as a two-point favorite in last year?s Elite Eight, are searching for their 13th trip to the Final Four. They last got there in 2003 when they lost to Syracuse in the national championship game. Also, Kansas coach Bill Self has reached the Elite Eight five times with three different teams, but has yet to get to the Final Four.
Prior to last week, Davidson hadn?t won a Tournament game in 39 years. And the odds are stacked heavily against the Wildcats in this contest, as No. 10 seeds are 0-8 all time in this round of the Tournament, having never advanced to the Final Four.
All four of Kansas? spread-covers during its 4-0 ATS run have come at neutral sites. The Jayhawks are on additional ATS streaks of 6-1 outside the Big 12, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 5-2 in the Tournament (all as a favorite), 7-2 against winning teams and 7-2 as a chalk. On the negative side, they are 2-4 ATS in their last five as a favorite of seven to 12? points.
During its 25-game winning streak, the Wildcats are 17-8 ATS, including 3-0 ATS in the Tournament. Additionally, Davidson is on ATS tears of 43-19-1 overall, 6-0 in non-conference action, 6-0 as an underdog this year, 8-1 at neutral venues, 4-0 on Sundays, 26-9-1 against winning teams and 41-16-1 after a SU win.
Kansas has systematically dismantled each of its three Tournament opponents. The Jayhawks are averaging 77.3 ppg and holding the opposition to just 58 ppg, with Portland State, UNLV and Villanova scoring 61, 56 and 57 points, respectively. Also, Kansas is shooting a blistering 55.1 percent from the field and allowing just 34 percent, while holding a commanding plus-26 edge on the boards.
With Curry leading the way, Davidson is averaging 76.3 ppg in the tourney and giving up 67.3 ppg. However, the Wildcats have really defied the odds to get this far, as they?ve been outshot 50 percent to 45.5 percent and outrebounded 85-75. In fact, all three of Davidson?s opponents have held the edge on the boards.
The over is 5-2 in Davidson?s last seven non-conference games and 5-2-1 in its last eight on Sundays. After that, the totals trends lean to the under, with the Wildcats going 9-4-1 ?under? in their last 14 as an underdog and Kansas sporting under streaks of 5-0 in the Tournament (3-0 this year), 7-2 at neutral sites, 5-2 overall and 20-8 in non-conference play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DAVIDSON and UNDER
NBA
Houston (49-23, 41-29-2 ATS) at San Antonio (50-23, 33-38-2 ATS)
The Spurs look to extend a six-game winning streak when they host the Rockets in a pivotal Southwest Division showdown at the AT&T Center.
San Antonio blasted the Timberwolves 99-84 as a 12-point home favorite on Friday, improving to 5-1 ATS during their six-game winning streak. The spread-covering run comes on the heels of an 0-8 ATS slump. The Spurs are in a virtual tie for first place with New Orleans in the Southwest Division, with Houston one-half game back.
Houston?s most recent contest also came against Minnesota at home, and like the Spurs, the Rockets rolled by double digits, posting a 97-86 victory but pushing as an 11-point chalk. Although Houston has won consecutive games, it is just 3-3 since its incredible 23-game winning streak. Also, the Rockets have followed up a 12-0 ATS run by going 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight.
The first three meetings in this season series have gone to the home team, with the Rockets going 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. The contests were decided by a total of 16 points. Houston is 5-1 ATS in the last six overall against the Spurs and 5-0 ATS in its last five visits to San Antonio. Finally, the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight head-to-head clashes and the visitor is 8-3 ATS in the last 11.
Houston is 1-2 SU and ATS in its last three road games after going 6-0 SU and ATS in its previous six on the highway. On the positive end of the spectrum, Rick Adelman?s club is on ATS tears of 20-7-1 overall, 10-4-1 against the Western Conference, 5-1 in the division, 4-1 when playing on three or more days? rest and 9-2 as an underdog of less than six points.
The Spurs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Sunday affairs, but otherwise, they?re on negative pointspread trends of 5-12-1 against division rivals, 2-5-1 at home and 8-17 against the West.
Each of the last seven meetings between these rivals has stayed under the total, and the under is 22-5 in the last 27 series meetings overall and 10-1 in the last 11 clashes in San Antonio. Additionally, the Spurs are on under streaks of 19-7 against division rivals, 4-1 on Sundays, 8-3 when playing on one day of rest and 17-4 against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Rockets sport under runs of 7-3 in the division, 16-5 when coming off three or more days? rest and 22-5 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and UNDER
Dallas (45-27, 30-38-4 ATS) at Golden State (44-28, 32-40 ATS)
Two of the three teams in a dogfight for the final two Western Conference playoff berths clash at Oracle Arena, as the Warriors host the shorthanded and slumping Mavericks.
Only one game separates Dallas and Golden State in the playoff standings entering the final 2? weeks of the regular season, with the Mavs sitting in seventh place, a half-game clear of eighth-place Denver, which overtook Golden State for the coveted eighth spot in the standings with last night?s 119-112 win over the Warriors. Golden State now is on the outside looking in, a half-game back of the Nuggets.
The Warriors have struggled with consistency over the past two weeks, alternating SU and ATS wins and losses in their last 10 games, Golden State is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine, though it did barely cash as an eight-point dog at Denver last night for it second straight spread-cover.
Like the Golden State, the Mavericks? most recent game came in Denver, and the results weren?t pretty, as they fell 118-105 as an 8?-point underdog on Thursday. Dallas, which lost All-Star Dirk Nowitzki to a serious leg injury last Sunday, are just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five games. The slump follows a 5-0 SU and ATS roll.
The Warriors pulled off one of the most stunning upsets in NBA playoff history last year in knocking out top-seeded Dallas in six games, and they?re 21-5-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings. However, the Mavericks have won the first two clashes this year, prevailing 120-115 as a seven-point road chalk in early November and rolling 121-99 as a 5?-point home favorite on Jan. 2. The ?dog has cashed at a 20-6-1 ATS clip over the past 27 battles.
Despite Thursday?s loss in Denver, Dallas has cashed in five of its last seven on the highway. Otherwise, the Mavs are on ATS nosedives of 1-5-2 against the Pacific Division, 1-4 when playing on two days? rest and 0-6 against the Western Conference.
The Warriors are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 against the Southwest Division, but 5-14 ATS in their last 19 at home and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 versus the West.
Dallas has followed up a 4-0 ?under? streak by topping the total in its last two, both without Nowitzki. Also, the Mavs are 8-1 ?over? in their last nine against the Pacific Division and 4-1 ?over? in their last five on the road, though the under is 18-6-1 in their last 25 on Sundays. Meanwhile, the Warriors have followed an 18-3-1 ?over? tear by staying under the number in eight of its last 11.
Finally, the over is 19-8 in the last 27 series meetings between these rivals, but four of the last five battles in Golden State going back to last year?s playoff series have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GOLDEN STATE
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta (0-0) at Washington (0-0)
Washington christens the new Nationals Park in the nation?s capital when it hosts the division rival Braves as the 2008 season begins in earnest. The Nationals will hand the ball to newcomer Odalis Perez (8-11, 5.57 ERA in 2007), while the Braves will counter with ace Tim Hudson (16-10, 3.33 in 2007).
The Nationals went 73-89 in 2007, finishing in fourth place in the N.L. East, two games ahead of the Marlins. They were a very respectable 40-41 in their former home park (RFK Stadium). Meanwhile, the Braves are coming off an 84-78 third-place finish in the East, missing the playoffs for the second straight year. Atlanta went 40-41 on the highway.
The Braves won the season series last year 11-7, going 7-2 over the final nine meetings. The home team was 12-6.
Hudson is coming off his best season in terms of victories and ERA since 2003 when he was with the A?s, and his 224 1/3 innings pitched were the third highest total in the National League. And the 32-year-old righthander owned the Nats last season, going 4-0 with a 0.90 ERA in four starts, giving up just two runs in 30 innings. In two starts in Washington, he was 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA. For his career, Hudson is 5-1 with a 1.09 ERA against the Nationals.
Perez pitched for Kansas City last year and was decent down the stretch, going 5-4 with a 4.87 ERA in his last 12 starts. The veteran southpaw, who began his career in Atlanta, won his first start against his former squad in 2002 but has since gone 0-3 with a 6.30 ERA in six subsequent appearances against the Braves.
In the spring, Hudson went 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA in five starts. Meanwhile, Perez, who is making the first opening-day start of his career, recorded a 4.96 ERA in the exhibition season, walking three and striking out 12 in 16 1/3 innings of work.
The Braves lost four of their last five road games last year, but closed 5-2 against the N.L. East. Meanwhile, Washington also went 5-2 in its last seven divisional games in 2007.
The over was 4-1 in the final five meetings between these squads last year and 5-2 in Perez?s final seven starts. However, the under was 4-0 in Hudson?s last four starts in 2007 and 3-0-1 in his four starts against the Nats.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
