The King Maker
CBB Total
dime bet522 Memphis / 521 Texas Over 142.5 BetUS
Analysis:
Texas/Memphis OVER 142.5 (-120) At BetUS
Keep this in mind: Texas is inclinced to let Memphis set up on offense, and Memphis will fear the Texas push up the court, so they will be less aggressive in the three-quarter press.
We may have more offense than the line indicates.
And don't worry about the length of the Tiger guards. Kansas was better, and texas still soared over 70!
*The last TX/Kansas game hit 158
Right now, Memphis is at the top of their game, and Texas is really moving much quicker than they had at the start of the season. So these teams are in a cycle that places them ABOVE their season averages on offense.
The sharps may be inclined to focus on the fact that we have two TOP FLIGHT defenses in play tonight, and some of you might know that I favor Texas against a heavy ARC shooting team, so you might be inclined to think I would go UNDER, and take Texas plus the points.
But this will not be the case. Memphis plays a style of offense that tries to "drive and kick". They are a stronger version on Baylor in this fashion, and the style of play tends to give more open looks to the perimeter shooter. This should remove texas defenders from their usual re-directs.
Memphis, like Baylor, will try to push the Texas frontcourt, draw in the Longhorn guards, and kick to the open man. And the score will approach the levels of the Texas-Baylor scores this year......(less than, but closer to). A drive and kick team can hurt Texas.
TX/BAY Scores this year.
80-72
82-77
Texas thrives, defensively, when they are in the shooter's face. They like to play you horizontally, EAST to WEST, along the perimeter, and they need to be close to you in order to contest the shot. They can kill a perimeter dependant team, like Tennessee for this reason.
But Memphis is not "perimeter dependant". They will focus more on pentration as a tool for the "kick-out", and they are really at a point where they are working the ball perfectly.
A quick look at the "game-flow" for both Memphis and Texas will show you that they are moving quicker than usual.
Memphis is running on EVERYONE, regardless of size.
92 Points on Michigan State?
77 Points on Mississippi State?
Those aren't defensive cupcakes, folks!
This Memphis team is on a mission.
Keep this in mind as well. When I told you to take the OVER in the Texas-Stanford game, I pointed out that Texas was essentially the BEST team in the nation at taking care of the ball.
Memphis is too (#13)!
Both of these teams can deliver the ball to the half court, and Texas is rarely interested in slowing anyone down in this matter! As Stated before, Texas likes to get back and set up defensively. We should not have a bunch of delays on the progression up the court.
By the way, Texas has hung 82 points on Stanford (Slower Tempo), and nearly reach 80 points against Miami. I've seen them really attempt to push the tempo, so that their guards can catch the defense out of sync. They are shooting earlier in the shot clock lately, and I love this for our over!
In the Stanford game, both teams took 65 shots!!!!
I think there are two very interesting things to point out. Memphis is regarded as one of the best defenses in the nation BUT, outside of USC and Oklahoma, all other NON-C-USA teams exceeded 70 points against this defense.
Memphis and their defense is overrated to a certain degree.
Texas is a top flight offense!
When Calipari joked that these two teams could reach 200+ points tonight, you take it with a grain of salt, but I definitely think both of these teams will surpass 72 points tonight.
And remember this: Texas is only so-so on defenisive rebounds. Here's a quote from Glockner of ESPN:
TEXAS Biggest weakness: Defensive rebounding.
The difference between them and the Cardinal, though, is that Texas is a below-average defensive rebounding team, which when combined with the low turnover rate, helps opposing offenses get additional chances at the basket.
Guys, Austin Peay had 15 offensive boards against Texas in round #1!!!!!! Is Memphis a bit overrated on Defense?
I think they are.
The Tigers are fast, they take care of the ball, and they can create a frantic pace. All things considered, I think we can expose a little scoring today!!!!!
Added notes: Why Memphis will "get off" today and score some points.
Texas? Bad on the offensive boards
Let me use my favorite example to illustrate the functional stresses on Texas in the Off/Ribby department....
Tennessee has been a bad offensive rebounding team, at times, especially early in the season, because they had Lofton and Howell out on the ARC screwing around, and fading from their shots. All long rebounds go to the other team. The other team uses that lost zone to establish the footing for a fast break opportunity. Lofton and Howell get very few rebounds.
Abrams for Texas is the same way: Notice that he had ZERO rebounds against AP? It's not unusual. Sure, he was 6-10 from the ARC, so he's worth the trouble, like Lofton, but the weakness is there. You have ONE THIRD of the perimeter unguarded on the rebound in this case. Sometimes for Tennessee its 2/3rds. Abrams is fading, or watching his shot. He falls out of position before he hits the floor.
That gap in the rebounding area allows the other team to, not only rebound, but also to run the ball and catch Texas in a bad spot in transition.
By the way, in that AP game, Augustine only had 3 rebounds and Mason was the only beast (9). No other guard had a rebound aside from Mason and Augustine. NONE!
You have a HOLE in the TWO DEEP at the perimeter. Thank goodness those boys play a ton of minutes. Nobody is there on the bench to help.
Throw out the Stanford game if you want, the guards for STAN are overworked, tired, and not very quick, so Texas was bound to dominate them on perimeter rebounds.
EVEN then! Stanford had 18 offensive boards!!!!!! That's a ton!
I could go on all day, but Baylor will serve my point. Abrams had ZERO rebounds, once again, and Baylor beat Mighty Texas on the offensive boards 14-12! Yes! That's 14 offensive rebounds!
We could break down 8 more games, at least
I hope this helps.
Just look at the court and divide it up in your head. THERE IS A DEFINITE GAP IN THE ABRAMS ZONE! It's always there. It doesn't go unnoticed. It is the trigger point for a lot of what Memphis will like to do!
I definitely think that Memphis has the lanes to BIG production today! This zone weakness will be exploited, along with several others.
